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How To Critique A Journal Article
Sponsored by The Center for Teaching and Learning at UIS
Last Edited 4/9/2009 Page 1 of 2
So your assignment is to critique a journal article. This handout
will give you a few guidelines to
follow as you go. But wait, what kind of a journal article is it:
an empirical/research article, or a
review of literature? Some of the guidelines offered here will
apply to critiques of all kinds of
articles, but each type of article may provoke questions that are
especially pertinent to that type
and no other. Read on.
First of all, for any type of journal article your critique should
include some basic information:
1. Name(s) of the author(s)
2. Title of article
3. Title of journal, volume number, date, month and page
numbers
4. Statement of the problem or issue discussed
5. The author’s purpose, approach or methods, hypothesis, and
major conclusions.
The bulk of your critique, however, should consist of your
qualified opinion of the article.
Read the article you are to critique once to get an overview.
Then read it again, critically. At this
point you may want to make some notes to yourself on your
copy (not the library’s copy,
please).
The following are some questions you may want to address in
your critique no matter what type
of article you are critiquing. (Use your discretion. These points
don’t have to be discussed in this
order, and some may not be pertinent to your particular article.)
1. Is the title of the article appropriate and clear?
2. Is the abstract specific, representative of the article, and in
the correct form?
3. Is the purpose of the article made clear in the introduction?
4. Do you find errors of fact and interpretation? (This is a good
one! You won’t believe how
often authors misinterpret or misrepresent the work of others.
You can check on this by looking
up for yourself the references the author cites.)
5. Is all of the discussion relevant?
6. Has the author cited the pertinent, and only the pertinent,
literature? If the author has included
inconsequential references, or references that are not pertinent,
suggest deleting them.
7. Have any ideas been overemphasized or underemphasized?
Suggest specific revisions.
8. Should some sections of the manuscript be expanded,
condensed or omitted?
9. Are the author’s statements clear? Challenge ambiguous
statements. Suggest by examples how
clarity can be achieved, but do not merely substitute your style
for the author’s.
10. What underlying assumptions does the author have?
11. Has the author been objective in his or her discussion of the
topic?
In addition, here are some questions that are more specific to
empirical/research articles. (Again,
use your discretion.)
1. Is the objective of the experiment or of the observations
important for the field?
2. Are the experimental methods described adequately?
3. Are the study design and methods appropriate for the
purposes of the study?
4. Have the procedures been presented in enough detail to
enable a reader to duplicate them?
(Another good one! You’d be surprised at the respectable
researchers who cut corners in their
writing on this point.)
How To Critique A Journal Article
Sponsored by The Center for Teaching and Learning at UIS
Last Edited 4/9/2009 Page 2 of 2
5. Scan and spot-check calculations. Are the statistical methods
appropriate?
6. Do you find any content repeated or duplicated? A common
fault is repetition in the text of
data in tables or figures. Suggest that tabular data be interpreted
of summarized, nor merely
repeated, in the text.
A word about your style: let your presentation be well reasoned
and objective. If you
passionately disagree (or agree) with the author, let your
passion inspire you to new heights of
thorough research and reasoned argument.
Comparing the United States’ and China’s Shifting
Health Challenges
The United States and China
both face the question of how
to prioritize programmatic re-
sources and policy interven-
tions to make the greatest
impact on the health of their
populations.
I discuss strengths and limi-
tations of the expert panel sur-
vey used byWu et al. in “The 20
Most Important and Most Pre-
ventable Health Problems of
China: Opinions From Chinese
ExpertsUsing aModifiedDelphi
Process,” in this issue of AJPH.
I juxtapose this method with
several US approaches to pri-
ority setting at the federal,
state, and county levels and
suggest steps for moving from
research to action. (Am J Public
Health. 2018;108:1603–1606.
doi:10.2105/AJPH.2018.304782)
Jonathan Fielding, MD, MPH, MBA
See also Yu, p. 1574; and also the AJPH Public Health in China
section, pp. 1592–1603.
Setting national priorities toimprove health and prevent
disease is vital. Ideally, priorities
should be driven by scientific
processes, but in reality, they tend
tobedrivenbyperception, political
realities, feasibility, and timing.
Those of us in public health feel it is
imperative to put science and data
first so that there can be broad
agreement and a common under-
standing that underlies the discus-
sion of priorities.
Difficulty in setting health pri-
orities is magnified when there are
rapid changes in economic, social,
and political conditions. Such is the
case in China. That nation’s ex-
plosive economic growth over the
past 40 years brought many ad-
vantages to its people, including
increased longevity and progress
in controlling some occupational
and communicable diseases.
China faces shifting health
challenges, with noncommuni-
cable diseases now accounting for
the vast majority of all deaths,
many attributable to environ-
mental degradation, global
warming, changes in health-
affecting behaviors, and aging
of the population. In addition,
emerging diseases threaten the
public’s health, and even infectious
disease notifications for common
infectious diseases have increased
despite substantial investments in
disease control and prevention.
Like many other countries,
including the United States,
China faces the question of
how to prioritize programmatic
resources and policy interventions
tomake the greatest impact on the
health of its 1.3 billion inhabitants.
“Prevention first” has been se-
lected as the national priority.
However, an operational plan
specifying which diseases to pre-
vent and which to control, as well
as target objectives and what in-
terventions are needed to effect
the desired improvements, has yet
to be published.
US APPROACHES TO
SIMILAR PROBLEMS
The United States confronts
issues of shifting health burdens
similar to China’s. To address
them, the United States has
worked through public or private
sponsors at three levels—federal,
state, and county—although not
always in a coordinated fashion.
Work on a major prevention-
oriented, data-driven, federal
government–coordinated de-
cennial product, Healthy People,
began in 1980. Healthy People
1990, the initial Healthy People,
had two overarching goals, 15
topic areas, and 226 objectives.
Since then, the scope and
number of objectives have in-
creased in every succeeding it-
eration, sometimes dramatically.
The latest report, Healthy People
2020, included 42 topic areas and
more than 1200 objectives.
One major addition in recent
reports has been an increased focus
on the social determinants of
health, including economic sta-
bility, education, neighborhood
and built environment, and social
and community context. In
planning for Healthy People 2030,
the issue of health equity has be-
come more central. For each ob-
jective or related group ofHealthy
People objectives, the Department
of Health and Human Services
coordinated a group of experts
charged with developing quanti-
fiable targets and identifying the
policies, programs, and systems
that could be employed to achieve
the objectives.
However, quantifiable targets
alone are insufficient. They need
to be coupled with interventions
that move the needle. Fortu-
nately, over the past 40 years,
increased attention and in-
vestment have accelerated de-
velopment and application of
scientific methods to assess the
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jonathan Fielding is a Distinguished Professor of Health Policy
and Management in the
Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los
Angeles.
Correspondence should be sent to Jonathan Fielding, MD, MPH,
MBA, University of
California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health,
Center for Health Advancement, 650
Charles E. Young Dr. South, Room 61-253 CHS, Box 951772,
Los Angeles, CA 90095
(e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]). Reprints can be
ordered at http://www.
ajph.org by clicking the “Reprints” link.
This article was accepted September 15, 2018.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304782
December 2018, Vol 108, No. 12 AJPH Fielding Peer Reviewed
Commentary 1603
AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
http://www.ajph.org
http://www.ajph.org
ability of different interventions to
improve the health of populations.
The US Preventive Services Task
Force, a federal government–sup-
ported independent volunteer
panel of experts in disease pre-
vention and evidence-based
medicine, performs systematic re-
views to develop clinical pre-
ventive service recommendations
for clinicians. A companion with
a similarly composed expert panel,
the Community Preventive Ser-
vices Task Force, performs parallel
analyses to select interventions to
prevent disease and improvehealth
for public and private sector or-
ganizations. The task force staff
also performs economic analyses
on recommended interventions,
adding a critical dimension to the
information available for decision-
makers. Both task forces are staffed
by federal agencies. Other well-
established nonprofit groups per-
forming systematic reviews on
potential population-oriented in-
terventions include the Cochrane
Collaboration and the Campbell
Collaboration.
Rankings have been incorpo-
rated in several data-driven
products. State health rankings,
privately funded but with the
participation of public and private
sector experts, are used to annually
rank the relative health of each
state’s population on the basis of
a wide range of then current and
trend data on behaviors, com-
munity and environment, policy,
clinical care, and outcomes. The
County Health Rankings and
Roadmaps, funded by the Robert
Wood Johnson Foundation and
operated by the University of
Wisconsin, are used to rate health
using more than 30 measures that
relate to two outcomemetrics and
four major determinants (clinical
care, social factors, the environ-
ment, and individual behaviors)
on a yearly basis. A major em-
phasis of this product is its action
orientation. Rankings are a
starting point for action by the
adoption of health-promoting
policies and programs. The
County Health Rankings offer
step-by-step guidance and tools
to help users move from data
to action. Other initiatives are
oriented to helping cities,
counties, or regions assess and
improve health and health
equity in their jurisdictions.
End products of these and other
projects with similar aims sup-
port the development of goals,
objectives, and recommended
evidence-based interventions.
However, expert opinion is still
required for the Healthy People
process and others with similar
goals because of the lack of baseline
data for a growing percentage of
the mushrooming objectives. For
the Healthy People series, small
groups of experts are convened by
topic to develop reasonable targets
to be achieved within the next
decade. Because of data limitations
and uncertainty regarding effec-
tive interventions, many groups
defaulted to a 10% improvement
target for their area. Despite likely
future improvements in surveil-
lance data, methods, and inter-
ventions, expert opinion will
continue to be a necessary input
when setting goals and objectives.
RANKING CHINA’S
HEALTH PROBLEMS
In China, the Prevention First
national priority, like the Healthy
People initiative in the United
States, needs to be translated into
discrete activities. In support of
Prevention First, a working
group from China’s Center for
Disease Control and Prevention
developed an innovative ap-
proach to add the broad-based
opinions of health experts to the
surveillance data on health and
health care. As reported in this
issue ofAJPH,Wu et al. (p. 1592)
asked experts in medicine, public
health, and medical research to
use a modified Delphi process to
achieve consensus in the identi-
fication and ranking of the most
important health problems and
the most preventable problems
over the next 20 years in China.
The panelists were given a list of
106 diseases and health-related
conditions so they could identify
and rank the top 20 in terms of
importance and the top 20 for
preventability. As part of the
process, panelists could add up
to five additional diseases or
health-related conditions. This
creative use of a modified Delphi
technique yielded clear priorities
for both importance and pre-
ventability of diseases and health-
related conditions for the 1.3
billion people living in the world’s
most populous nation.
One strength of this survey is
the ability to compare impor-
tance and preventability scores.
Another strength is the revealing
of differences in perceptions
among medical, public health,
and medical research experts.
Composite scores by professional
field revealed broad agreement
on some rankings (e.g., diabetes,
hypertension, and air pollution)
but strikingly different rankings
on others, such as emerging in-
fectious diseases, smoking, hep-
atitis, depression, and unhealthy
diet. Time engaged in practice
alsomade a big difference in some
composite rankings. Of particular
note, those with 15 to 30 years
of practice ranked liver cancer
number one (vs 12th and 8th for
older cohorts) and coronary heart
disease 11th (vs 4th and 5th).
An additional strength, which,
paradoxically, can also be con-
sidered a limitation, is that lacking
the receipt of objective infor-
mation on burden, the judgments
of the expert panelists were likely
to be significantly influenced by
their own experience and criteria
for importance. These might
include how many people they
believed to be affected; the
problems they see in their pa-
tients, population, or research;
and their perception of trends.
It appears there was no in-
formation provided to the pan-
elists on disease burden, health
behaviors, or the impact of past
interventions on the overall
population and sociodemo-
graphic segments. Moreover, the
article does not suggest that the
panelists were given information
on trends. This raises the ques-
tion, for example, of whether air
pollution would have received
the same importance ranking if
panelists were told that air pol-
lution is trending downward and
that the trend is expected to
continue.
Information on the surveyed
panel is limited (including only
invitation response rate, basic
demographic characteristics,
current professional field, and
time engaged in that field) and
leaves open the question: What
knowledge base did participants
bring to the rankings? Their area
of specialty or expertise is not
specified—a crucial omission
because it presumably informed
their choices. How would an
academic urologist or cell biology
researcher decide how to rank
road safety versus breast cancer or
HIV?
The minimal number of
changes in ranked items between
rounds and quick achievement
of consensus may reflect limited
familiarity of most panelists with
the wide range of disparate dis-
eases and health-related condi-
tions to be ranked. A possible
source of bias is how the initial
106 diseases and health-related
issues were presented to the
panelists. Were they presented
in roughly the rank order of
disability-adjusted life years
AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA
1604 Commentary Peer Reviewed Fielding AJPH December
2018, Vol 108, No. 12
(DALYs) or mortality, even
though these baseline measures
were not included? If not, how
did the working group under-
taking the study determine the
initial order? The limited scope of
some panelists’ experience may
predispose them to support the
initial rankings if they come from
an authoritative source, unless
a panelist perceived that their area
of expertise was being under-
valued in the first of the two
rounds of ranking.
To be sure, the survey yielded
at least a few surprises. Mental
disorders are ranked lower than
one might expect, considering
that the 2016 Global Burden of
Disease report from the Institute
for Health Metrics and Evalua-
tion ranks mental disorders third
among causes or risks of disease
burden in China (2200.73
DALYs per 100 000).1 Most
surprisingly, substance abuse and
addiction were not among the
top 20, despite alcohol and drug
use being fifth among risk factors
driving the most death and dis-
ability combined for China in
2016, after having a 10.5% in-
crease in DALYs since 2005.2
China’s assistant minister of
public security estimates that
there are more than 14 million
drug users, and the 2014 Drug
ReviewAnnualReport estimates
at least 49 000 deaths from drug
abuse in that year.3
Although the population
drinking level inChina used to be
much lower than in many high-
income and middle-income
countries, per capita alcohol
consumption rose from 2.5 liters
in 1978 to 6.7 liters in 2010. It is
important to note that more than
half of the Chinese population
aged 15 years and older abstain
from alcohol: 42% of men and
71% of women. This means the
alcohol consumption level of
those who actually drink was 15.1
liters in 2010, higher than the
equivalent figure in the United
Kingdom, the United States,
Sweden, Germany, Australia,
New Zealand, and many other
countries. Further, great dispar-
ities exist in alcohol consumption
and rates of dependence.The rates
of alcohol use disorder are 9.3%
among men and 0.2% among
women, amale–female ratio of 47
to 1, which is substantially higher
than inmost other countries in the
world. Alcohol use contributes to
more than 310 000 deaths and
13.8 million DALYs per year in
China.4
Also surprising is that mus-
culoskeletal disorders were not
ranked among the top 20 by any
of the three groups of partici-
pants, despite being ranked fifth
among disease and injury in
China for disease burden in
2016.1 Musculoskeletal disorders
caused 26.98 million lost DALYs
among the Chinese in 2016,
accounting for 7.72% of the
country’s total disease burden.1
Low back and neck pain tops the
list of health problems that cause
the most disability, and the In-
stitute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation also ranks osteoar-
thritis and other musculoskeletal
disorders among the top 10.2
Tracking demographic trends
is important, particularly for
ranking the importance of Alz-
heimer’s disease and other de-
mentias. The rapid decline in
fertility in China since the 1970s
combined with dramatically in-
creased life expectancy has caused
rapid population aging. Accord-
ing to the US Census Bureau
estimate, it will take China just
two decades for the proportion of
the elderly population to double
(from 7% to 14%), compared
with 45 years for the United
Kingdom and almost 70 years for
the United States.5 China’s de-
pendency ratio for the elderly
(the number of people aged 65
years or older for every 100
people aged 20–64 years) was
15% in 2015 and is expected to
rise to 49% in 2050,with the num-
ber of elderly people rising from
approximately 140 million to
350 million in this same period.
In other words, by 2050 China
will be supporting an elderly
population that exceeds the
current population of the United
States and that is more than twice
the population of Russia.5
With the rapid aging of
China’s population, health and
macroeconomic models predict
an unfolding Alzheimer’s disease
epidemic. Simulated Chinese
Alzheimer’s disease prevalence
quadrupled during 2011 to 2050
from six million to 28 million,6
and annual costs associated with
the illness are projected to be US
$1.89 trillion by 2050.7 Yet de-
spite the huge elderly population
and growing demand for care,
very little is known about the
economic costs of dementia care
in China. Responsibility to care
for those with dementia mostly
falls on the shoulders of unpaid
caretakers, as the formal care
sector is still in its infancy. For
perspective, the United States
has one quarter of China’s
population but about half the
number of Alzheimer’s disease
patients and 73 000 beds in spe-
cialist treatment centers, whereas
China has fewer than 200 beds.8
In a country with an older
population, disease incidence
and prevalence will swell not
only for dementia but also stroke,
cancer, fractured hips, osteopo-
rosis, Parkinson’s disease, lower
back pain, sleep problems, and
urinary incontinence. China’s
low fertility rate over the past
two decades (currently 1.6 births
per woman compared with the
world average of 2.49) means
that there will be fewer family
members to care for infirm elders
suffering from dementia and
other diseases that are associated
with significant disabilities. The
looming challenges of meeting
the needs of China’s older pop-
ulation will surely need to be
at the forefront of the nation’s
20-year health strategy and ap-
pear to deserve a higher ranking.
With respect to preventabil-
ity, there are also some surprises.
As an example, oral diseases are
not ranked among the top 20. As
demonstrated by the results from
the fourth national oral health
epidemiology survey (2017), oral
diseases are still highly prevalent
in China, and they are getting
worse. The reported caries
prevalence rates of children aged
five years and 12 years were
70.1% and 34.5%, respectively.
These problems are almost en-
tirely preventable through public
health and behavioral interven-
tions. If dental care deserves
a high priority, the dentist–
population ratio of one to 10 000
reported in 2009 needs a sub-
stantial increase.10
EXPERT OPINION: A
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE
Interpretation of survey results
would be facilitated by under-
standing whether the panelists
interpreted preventability to in-
clude treatment (sometimes re-
ferred to as tertiary prevention).
The broader the definition of
preventability, the greater the
importance of medical insurance
coverage and access to care.
Should coverage be considered
an underlying determinant for
many identified priority diseases
and health-relevant conditions?
A noteworthy feature of the
survey is the inclusion of both
upstream and downstream health
problems, although this approach
complicates the interpretation of
the rankings. For example, how
should we interpret the fact that
AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA
December 2018, Vol 108, No. 12 AJPH Fielding Peer Reviewed
Commentary 1605
smoking is ranked first in pre-
ventability, whereas lung cancer,
for which smoking is the major
cause, is ranked 11th? Diabetes
mellitus is ranked first in impor-
tance and second in prevent-
ability, but unhealthy diet, the
primary determinant of type 2
diabetes, is ranked only 14th
in importance and 5th in
preventability.
It would have been helpful to
start with an overarching model
with outcomes and determinants
separated to avoid having both of
these on the same list. Consid-
ering the burdens and prevention
opportunities by age group,
knowing urban versus rural res-
idence and gender would also be
helpful for determining priority
opportunities for prevention.
China is far from homoge-
neous with respect to health and
medical care. Instead of one na-
tional pattern, studies have illu-
minated a number of distinct,
geographically defined patterns.
Although many wealthy prov-
inces have mortality rates on par
with those of the United States,
populations in most rural prov-
inces are characterized by poorer
health outcomes and high levels
of adverse health determinants
and disease burden.
This survey did not directly
address the social determinants of
health and health inequity, such
as income, education, occupa-
tion, transportation, and housing.
Inclusion of these underlying
health and disease determinants
is critical for identifying health-
promoting policies and programs
with the greatest potential
impact.
In a research to action para-
digm, this survey addresses the
question of priorities on the basis
of expert opinion. To oper-
ationalize the results also requires
an understanding of what works
to reduce population burden. An
essential step is to compile the
best evidence on impact from
studies of intervention effective-
ness and develop quantifiable
targets on the basis of the most
impactful interventions.
Despite their limitations, sur-
veys of “experts” can be helpful
in several ways. They contribute
an important perspective worth
considering in the prioritization
process, especially when data are
incomplete with respect to bur-
den and intervention effective-
ness. Survey results can also
identify misconceptions that are
widely held, even among experts.
These can be addressed through
continuing education. Consid-
ering that experts are often
queried by the media, they can
help align public perceptions
with the best scientific knowl-
edge. In addition, the results can
promote interaction among re-
searchers and other medical and
public health thought leaders,
help establish research priorities,
and invite collaboration among
nations faced with similar
challenges.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to thank Ellie Faustino for
research and editorial assistance and Steven
Teutsch for helpful comments on the
commentary.
REFERENCES
1. Institute for Health Metrics and Eval-
uation. GBD compare. 2016. Available at:
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-
compare. Accessed August 28, 2018.
2. Institute for Health Metrics and Eval-
uation. China. Available at: http://www.
healthdata.org/china. Accessed August
28, 2018.
3. Wee S. Drug abuse cost China $80
billion last year as it clocked 49,000 drug
related deaths. 2015. Available at: https://
www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-
economic-losses-from-drug-abuse-hit-
81-billion-a-year-2015-6. Accessed
August 29, 2018.
4. JiangH,RoomR,HaoW.Alcohol and
related health issues in China: action
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5. He W, Goodkind D, Kowal PUS.
An Aging World: 2015. Washington,
DC: USGovernment Publishing Office;
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6. Keogh-Brown MR, Jensen HT,
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economy.EBioMedicine. 2015;4:184–190.
7. Jia J, Wei C, Li F, et al. The cost
of Alzheimer’s disease in China and
re-estimation of costs worldwide. Alz-
heimers Dement. 2018;14(4):483–491.
8. Fuhrman P, Yansong W. China’s
millions of Alzheimer’s patients cannot
wait for specialized care. 2017. Available
at: https://www.scmp.com/comment/
insight-opinion/article/2098539/chinas-
millions-alzheimers-patients-cannot-
wait-any-longer. Accessed August 29,
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9. World Bank. Fertility rate, total (births
per woman). Available at: https://data.
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TFRT.IN. Accessed August 29, 2018.
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Y. Oral health status and oral health care
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AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA
1606 Commentary Peer Reviewed Fielding AJPH December
2018, Vol 108, No. 12
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare
http://www.healthdata.org/china
http://www.healthdata.org/china
https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses-
from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6
https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses-
from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6
https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses-
from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6
https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses-
from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-
opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients-
cannot-wait-any-longer
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-
opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients-
cannot-wait-any-longer
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-
opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients-
cannot-wait-any-longer
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-
opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients-
cannot-wait-any-longer
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT
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  • 1. How To Critique A Journal Article Sponsored by The Center for Teaching and Learning at UIS Last Edited 4/9/2009 Page 1 of 2 So your assignment is to critique a journal article. This handout will give you a few guidelines to follow as you go. But wait, what kind of a journal article is it: an empirical/research article, or a review of literature? Some of the guidelines offered here will apply to critiques of all kinds of articles, but each type of article may provoke questions that are especially pertinent to that type and no other. Read on. First of all, for any type of journal article your critique should include some basic information: 1. Name(s) of the author(s) 2. Title of article 3. Title of journal, volume number, date, month and page numbers 4. Statement of the problem or issue discussed 5. The author’s purpose, approach or methods, hypothesis, and major conclusions. The bulk of your critique, however, should consist of your qualified opinion of the article. Read the article you are to critique once to get an overview. Then read it again, critically. At this
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  • 3. empirical/research articles. (Again, use your discretion.) 1. Is the objective of the experiment or of the observations important for the field? 2. Are the experimental methods described adequately? 3. Are the study design and methods appropriate for the purposes of the study? 4. Have the procedures been presented in enough detail to enable a reader to duplicate them? (Another good one! You’d be surprised at the respectable researchers who cut corners in their writing on this point.) How To Critique A Journal Article Sponsored by The Center for Teaching and Learning at UIS Last Edited 4/9/2009 Page 2 of 2 5. Scan and spot-check calculations. Are the statistical methods appropriate? 6. Do you find any content repeated or duplicated? A common fault is repetition in the text of data in tables or figures. Suggest that tabular data be interpreted of summarized, nor merely repeated, in the text. A word about your style: let your presentation be well reasoned and objective. If you passionately disagree (or agree) with the author, let your passion inspire you to new heights of
  • 4. thorough research and reasoned argument. Comparing the United States’ and China’s Shifting Health Challenges The United States and China both face the question of how to prioritize programmatic re- sources and policy interven- tions to make the greatest impact on the health of their populations. I discuss strengths and limi- tations of the expert panel sur- vey used byWu et al. in “The 20 Most Important and Most Pre- ventable Health Problems of China: Opinions From Chinese ExpertsUsing aModifiedDelphi
  • 5. Process,” in this issue of AJPH. I juxtapose this method with several US approaches to pri- ority setting at the federal, state, and county levels and suggest steps for moving from research to action. (Am J Public Health. 2018;108:1603–1606. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2018.304782) Jonathan Fielding, MD, MPH, MBA See also Yu, p. 1574; and also the AJPH Public Health in China section, pp. 1592–1603. Setting national priorities toimprove health and prevent disease is vital. Ideally, priorities should be driven by scientific processes, but in reality, they tend tobedrivenbyperception, political realities, feasibility, and timing. Those of us in public health feel it is imperative to put science and data first so that there can be broad agreement and a common under- standing that underlies the discus- sion of priorities.
  • 6. Difficulty in setting health pri- orities is magnified when there are rapid changes in economic, social, and political conditions. Such is the case in China. That nation’s ex- plosive economic growth over the past 40 years brought many ad- vantages to its people, including increased longevity and progress in controlling some occupational and communicable diseases. China faces shifting health challenges, with noncommuni- cable diseases now accounting for the vast majority of all deaths, many attributable to environ- mental degradation, global warming, changes in health- affecting behaviors, and aging of the population. In addition, emerging diseases threaten the public’s health, and even infectious disease notifications for common infectious diseases have increased despite substantial investments in disease control and prevention. Like many other countries, including the United States, China faces the question of how to prioritize programmatic resources and policy interventions tomake the greatest impact on the
  • 7. health of its 1.3 billion inhabitants. “Prevention first” has been se- lected as the national priority. However, an operational plan specifying which diseases to pre- vent and which to control, as well as target objectives and what in- terventions are needed to effect the desired improvements, has yet to be published. US APPROACHES TO SIMILAR PROBLEMS The United States confronts issues of shifting health burdens similar to China’s. To address them, the United States has worked through public or private sponsors at three levels—federal, state, and county—although not always in a coordinated fashion. Work on a major prevention- oriented, data-driven, federal government–coordinated de- cennial product, Healthy People, began in 1980. Healthy People 1990, the initial Healthy People, had two overarching goals, 15 topic areas, and 226 objectives. Since then, the scope and number of objectives have in- creased in every succeeding it- eration, sometimes dramatically.
  • 8. The latest report, Healthy People 2020, included 42 topic areas and more than 1200 objectives. One major addition in recent reports has been an increased focus on the social determinants of health, including economic sta- bility, education, neighborhood and built environment, and social and community context. In planning for Healthy People 2030, the issue of health equity has be- come more central. For each ob- jective or related group ofHealthy People objectives, the Department of Health and Human Services coordinated a group of experts charged with developing quanti- fiable targets and identifying the policies, programs, and systems that could be employed to achieve the objectives. However, quantifiable targets alone are insufficient. They need to be coupled with interventions that move the needle. Fortu- nately, over the past 40 years, increased attention and in- vestment have accelerated de- velopment and application of scientific methods to assess the ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jonathan Fielding is a Distinguished Professor of Health Policy
  • 9. and Management in the Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles. Correspondence should be sent to Jonathan Fielding, MD, MPH, MBA, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Center for Health Advancement, 650 Charles E. Young Dr. South, Room 61-253 CHS, Box 951772, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]). Reprints can be ordered at http://www. ajph.org by clicking the “Reprints” link. This article was accepted September 15, 2018. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304782 December 2018, Vol 108, No. 12 AJPH Fielding Peer Reviewed Commentary 1603 AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA mailto:[email protected] mailto:[email protected] http://www.ajph.org http://www.ajph.org ability of different interventions to improve the health of populations. The US Preventive Services Task Force, a federal government–sup- ported independent volunteer panel of experts in disease pre- vention and evidence-based medicine, performs systematic re-
  • 10. views to develop clinical pre- ventive service recommendations for clinicians. A companion with a similarly composed expert panel, the Community Preventive Ser- vices Task Force, performs parallel analyses to select interventions to prevent disease and improvehealth for public and private sector or- ganizations. The task force staff also performs economic analyses on recommended interventions, adding a critical dimension to the information available for decision- makers. Both task forces are staffed by federal agencies. Other well- established nonprofit groups per- forming systematic reviews on potential population-oriented in- terventions include the Cochrane Collaboration and the Campbell Collaboration. Rankings have been incorpo- rated in several data-driven products. State health rankings, privately funded but with the participation of public and private sector experts, are used to annually rank the relative health of each state’s population on the basis of a wide range of then current and trend data on behaviors, com- munity and environment, policy, clinical care, and outcomes. The County Health Rankings and
  • 11. Roadmaps, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and operated by the University of Wisconsin, are used to rate health using more than 30 measures that relate to two outcomemetrics and four major determinants (clinical care, social factors, the environ- ment, and individual behaviors) on a yearly basis. A major em- phasis of this product is its action orientation. Rankings are a starting point for action by the adoption of health-promoting policies and programs. The County Health Rankings offer step-by-step guidance and tools to help users move from data to action. Other initiatives are oriented to helping cities, counties, or regions assess and improve health and health equity in their jurisdictions. End products of these and other projects with similar aims sup- port the development of goals, objectives, and recommended evidence-based interventions. However, expert opinion is still required for the Healthy People process and others with similar goals because of the lack of baseline data for a growing percentage of the mushrooming objectives. For
  • 12. the Healthy People series, small groups of experts are convened by topic to develop reasonable targets to be achieved within the next decade. Because of data limitations and uncertainty regarding effec- tive interventions, many groups defaulted to a 10% improvement target for their area. Despite likely future improvements in surveil- lance data, methods, and inter- ventions, expert opinion will continue to be a necessary input when setting goals and objectives. RANKING CHINA’S HEALTH PROBLEMS In China, the Prevention First national priority, like the Healthy People initiative in the United States, needs to be translated into discrete activities. In support of Prevention First, a working group from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention developed an innovative ap- proach to add the broad-based opinions of health experts to the surveillance data on health and health care. As reported in this issue ofAJPH,Wu et al. (p. 1592) asked experts in medicine, public health, and medical research to use a modified Delphi process to
  • 13. achieve consensus in the identi- fication and ranking of the most important health problems and the most preventable problems over the next 20 years in China. The panelists were given a list of 106 diseases and health-related conditions so they could identify and rank the top 20 in terms of importance and the top 20 for preventability. As part of the process, panelists could add up to five additional diseases or health-related conditions. This creative use of a modified Delphi technique yielded clear priorities for both importance and pre- ventability of diseases and health- related conditions for the 1.3 billion people living in the world’s most populous nation. One strength of this survey is the ability to compare impor- tance and preventability scores. Another strength is the revealing of differences in perceptions among medical, public health, and medical research experts. Composite scores by professional field revealed broad agreement on some rankings (e.g., diabetes, hypertension, and air pollution) but strikingly different rankings on others, such as emerging in- fectious diseases, smoking, hep-
  • 14. atitis, depression, and unhealthy diet. Time engaged in practice alsomade a big difference in some composite rankings. Of particular note, those with 15 to 30 years of practice ranked liver cancer number one (vs 12th and 8th for older cohorts) and coronary heart disease 11th (vs 4th and 5th). An additional strength, which, paradoxically, can also be con- sidered a limitation, is that lacking the receipt of objective infor- mation on burden, the judgments of the expert panelists were likely to be significantly influenced by their own experience and criteria for importance. These might include how many people they believed to be affected; the problems they see in their pa- tients, population, or research; and their perception of trends. It appears there was no in- formation provided to the pan- elists on disease burden, health behaviors, or the impact of past interventions on the overall population and sociodemo- graphic segments. Moreover, the article does not suggest that the panelists were given information on trends. This raises the ques-
  • 15. tion, for example, of whether air pollution would have received the same importance ranking if panelists were told that air pol- lution is trending downward and that the trend is expected to continue. Information on the surveyed panel is limited (including only invitation response rate, basic demographic characteristics, current professional field, and time engaged in that field) and leaves open the question: What knowledge base did participants bring to the rankings? Their area of specialty or expertise is not specified—a crucial omission because it presumably informed their choices. How would an academic urologist or cell biology researcher decide how to rank road safety versus breast cancer or HIV? The minimal number of changes in ranked items between rounds and quick achievement of consensus may reflect limited familiarity of most panelists with the wide range of disparate dis- eases and health-related condi- tions to be ranked. A possible source of bias is how the initial 106 diseases and health-related
  • 16. issues were presented to the panelists. Were they presented in roughly the rank order of disability-adjusted life years AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA 1604 Commentary Peer Reviewed Fielding AJPH December 2018, Vol 108, No. 12 (DALYs) or mortality, even though these baseline measures were not included? If not, how did the working group under- taking the study determine the initial order? The limited scope of some panelists’ experience may predispose them to support the initial rankings if they come from an authoritative source, unless a panelist perceived that their area of expertise was being under- valued in the first of the two rounds of ranking. To be sure, the survey yielded at least a few surprises. Mental disorders are ranked lower than one might expect, considering that the 2016 Global Burden of Disease report from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evalua- tion ranks mental disorders third among causes or risks of disease
  • 17. burden in China (2200.73 DALYs per 100 000).1 Most surprisingly, substance abuse and addiction were not among the top 20, despite alcohol and drug use being fifth among risk factors driving the most death and dis- ability combined for China in 2016, after having a 10.5% in- crease in DALYs since 2005.2 China’s assistant minister of public security estimates that there are more than 14 million drug users, and the 2014 Drug ReviewAnnualReport estimates at least 49 000 deaths from drug abuse in that year.3 Although the population drinking level inChina used to be much lower than in many high- income and middle-income countries, per capita alcohol consumption rose from 2.5 liters in 1978 to 6.7 liters in 2010. It is important to note that more than half of the Chinese population aged 15 years and older abstain from alcohol: 42% of men and 71% of women. This means the alcohol consumption level of those who actually drink was 15.1 liters in 2010, higher than the equivalent figure in the United
  • 18. Kingdom, the United States, Sweden, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and many other countries. Further, great dispar- ities exist in alcohol consumption and rates of dependence.The rates of alcohol use disorder are 9.3% among men and 0.2% among women, amale–female ratio of 47 to 1, which is substantially higher than inmost other countries in the world. Alcohol use contributes to more than 310 000 deaths and 13.8 million DALYs per year in China.4 Also surprising is that mus- culoskeletal disorders were not ranked among the top 20 by any of the three groups of partici- pants, despite being ranked fifth among disease and injury in China for disease burden in 2016.1 Musculoskeletal disorders caused 26.98 million lost DALYs among the Chinese in 2016, accounting for 7.72% of the country’s total disease burden.1 Low back and neck pain tops the list of health problems that cause the most disability, and the In- stitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also ranks osteoar- thritis and other musculoskeletal disorders among the top 10.2
  • 19. Tracking demographic trends is important, particularly for ranking the importance of Alz- heimer’s disease and other de- mentias. The rapid decline in fertility in China since the 1970s combined with dramatically in- creased life expectancy has caused rapid population aging. Accord- ing to the US Census Bureau estimate, it will take China just two decades for the proportion of the elderly population to double (from 7% to 14%), compared with 45 years for the United Kingdom and almost 70 years for the United States.5 China’s de- pendency ratio for the elderly (the number of people aged 65 years or older for every 100 people aged 20–64 years) was 15% in 2015 and is expected to rise to 49% in 2050,with the num- ber of elderly people rising from approximately 140 million to 350 million in this same period. In other words, by 2050 China will be supporting an elderly population that exceeds the current population of the United States and that is more than twice the population of Russia.5 With the rapid aging of
  • 20. China’s population, health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding Alzheimer’s disease epidemic. Simulated Chinese Alzheimer’s disease prevalence quadrupled during 2011 to 2050 from six million to 28 million,6 and annual costs associated with the illness are projected to be US $1.89 trillion by 2050.7 Yet de- spite the huge elderly population and growing demand for care, very little is known about the economic costs of dementia care in China. Responsibility to care for those with dementia mostly falls on the shoulders of unpaid caretakers, as the formal care sector is still in its infancy. For perspective, the United States has one quarter of China’s population but about half the number of Alzheimer’s disease patients and 73 000 beds in spe- cialist treatment centers, whereas China has fewer than 200 beds.8 In a country with an older population, disease incidence and prevalence will swell not only for dementia but also stroke, cancer, fractured hips, osteopo- rosis, Parkinson’s disease, lower back pain, sleep problems, and urinary incontinence. China’s
  • 21. low fertility rate over the past two decades (currently 1.6 births per woman compared with the world average of 2.49) means that there will be fewer family members to care for infirm elders suffering from dementia and other diseases that are associated with significant disabilities. The looming challenges of meeting the needs of China’s older pop- ulation will surely need to be at the forefront of the nation’s 20-year health strategy and ap- pear to deserve a higher ranking. With respect to preventabil- ity, there are also some surprises. As an example, oral diseases are not ranked among the top 20. As demonstrated by the results from the fourth national oral health epidemiology survey (2017), oral diseases are still highly prevalent in China, and they are getting worse. The reported caries prevalence rates of children aged five years and 12 years were 70.1% and 34.5%, respectively. These problems are almost en- tirely preventable through public health and behavioral interven- tions. If dental care deserves a high priority, the dentist– population ratio of one to 10 000
  • 22. reported in 2009 needs a sub- stantial increase.10 EXPERT OPINION: A PIECE OF THE PUZZLE Interpretation of survey results would be facilitated by under- standing whether the panelists interpreted preventability to in- clude treatment (sometimes re- ferred to as tertiary prevention). The broader the definition of preventability, the greater the importance of medical insurance coverage and access to care. Should coverage be considered an underlying determinant for many identified priority diseases and health-relevant conditions? A noteworthy feature of the survey is the inclusion of both upstream and downstream health problems, although this approach complicates the interpretation of the rankings. For example, how should we interpret the fact that AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA December 2018, Vol 108, No. 12 AJPH Fielding Peer Reviewed Commentary 1605
  • 23. smoking is ranked first in pre- ventability, whereas lung cancer, for which smoking is the major cause, is ranked 11th? Diabetes mellitus is ranked first in impor- tance and second in prevent- ability, but unhealthy diet, the primary determinant of type 2 diabetes, is ranked only 14th in importance and 5th in preventability. It would have been helpful to start with an overarching model with outcomes and determinants separated to avoid having both of these on the same list. Consid- ering the burdens and prevention opportunities by age group, knowing urban versus rural res- idence and gender would also be helpful for determining priority opportunities for prevention. China is far from homoge- neous with respect to health and medical care. Instead of one na- tional pattern, studies have illu- minated a number of distinct, geographically defined patterns. Although many wealthy prov- inces have mortality rates on par with those of the United States, populations in most rural prov- inces are characterized by poorer health outcomes and high levels
  • 24. of adverse health determinants and disease burden. This survey did not directly address the social determinants of health and health inequity, such as income, education, occupa- tion, transportation, and housing. Inclusion of these underlying health and disease determinants is critical for identifying health- promoting policies and programs with the greatest potential impact. In a research to action para- digm, this survey addresses the question of priorities on the basis of expert opinion. To oper- ationalize the results also requires an understanding of what works to reduce population burden. An essential step is to compile the best evidence on impact from studies of intervention effective- ness and develop quantifiable targets on the basis of the most impactful interventions. Despite their limitations, sur- veys of “experts” can be helpful in several ways. They contribute an important perspective worth considering in the prioritization process, especially when data are
  • 25. incomplete with respect to bur- den and intervention effective- ness. Survey results can also identify misconceptions that are widely held, even among experts. These can be addressed through continuing education. Consid- ering that experts are often queried by the media, they can help align public perceptions with the best scientific knowl- edge. In addition, the results can promote interaction among re- searchers and other medical and public health thought leaders, help establish research priorities, and invite collaboration among nations faced with similar challenges. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Ellie Faustino for research and editorial assistance and Steven Teutsch for helpful comments on the commentary. REFERENCES 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Eval- uation. GBD compare. 2016. Available at: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd- compare. Accessed August 28, 2018. 2. Institute for Health Metrics and Eval- uation. China. Available at: http://www. healthdata.org/china. Accessed August 28, 2018.
  • 26. 3. Wee S. Drug abuse cost China $80 billion last year as it clocked 49,000 drug related deaths. 2015. Available at: https:// www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says- economic-losses-from-drug-abuse-hit- 81-billion-a-year-2015-6. Accessed August 29, 2018. 4. JiangH,RoomR,HaoW.Alcohol and related health issues in China: action needed. Lancet Glob Health. 2015;3(4): e190–e191. 5. He W, Goodkind D, Kowal PUS. An Aging World: 2015. Washington, DC: USGovernment Publishing Office; 2016. 6. Keogh-Brown MR, Jensen HT, Arrighi HM, Smith RD. The impact of Alzheimer’s disease on the Chinese economy.EBioMedicine. 2015;4:184–190. 7. Jia J, Wei C, Li F, et al. The cost of Alzheimer’s disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide. Alz- heimers Dement. 2018;14(4):483–491. 8. Fuhrman P, Yansong W. China’s millions of Alzheimer’s patients cannot wait for specialized care. 2017. Available at: https://www.scmp.com/comment/ insight-opinion/article/2098539/chinas- millions-alzheimers-patients-cannot- wait-any-longer. Accessed August 29,
  • 27. 2018. 9. World Bank. Fertility rate, total (births per woman). Available at: https://data. worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN. TFRT.IN. Accessed August 29, 2018. 10. Liu J, Zhang SS, Zheng SG, Xu T, Si Y. Oral health status and oral health care model in China. Chin J Dent Res. 2016; 19(4):207–215. AJPH PUBLIC HEALTH IN CHINA 1606 Commentary Peer Reviewed Fielding AJPH December 2018, Vol 108, No. 12 https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare http://www.healthdata.org/china http://www.healthdata.org/china https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses- from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses- from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses- from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-says-economic-losses- from-drug-abuse-hit-81-billion-a-year-2015-6 https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight- opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients- cannot-wait-any-longer https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight- opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients- cannot-wait-any-longer https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-
  • 28. opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients- cannot-wait-any-longer https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight- opinion/article/2098539/chinas-millions-alzheimers-patients- cannot-wait-any-longer https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use.