Here is my analysis of the United States

1. P A U L Y O U N G C P A C G A
N O V E M B E R 1 , 2 0 2 0
WHAT’S NEXT
FOR UNITED
STATES

2. Paul Young CPA CGA – Bio
September 9, 2014
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Close, Consolidate and
Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact – Paul.Young@ca.ibm.com

3. Agenda
• Taxation
• United States Middle Class
• USA / Income Inequality
• Job Quality / USA
• Job Quality by President
• FDI by year / Analysis
• GDP Sector / USA
• GDP – September 2020
• State GDP
• Personal Consumption
• Economic Zones / Low Income
• USA / Green Economy
• Infrastructure
• Education
• Healthcare
• Housing
• Foreign Affairs and Policies
• Post-Secondary Education
• Budget Deficit / Federally
• Kamala Harris
• Foreign Policies and Affairs
• Crime / Punishment
• Environment
• Climate Change
• Manufacturing
• Immigration
• Defense

4. Taxation
The United States along with other countries need to reform their tax acts
https://review.chicagobooth.edu/public-policy/2018/article/why-it-s-so-hard-simplify-tax-code
• https://taxfoundation.org/facts-about-redistribution-obama-failed-acknowledge/ or
https://taxfoundation.org/summary-of-the-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2020-update/
• Wealth Taxation does not work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/does-the-world-need-a-wealth-
tax
• Tax fairness should be the goal - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/designing-social-programs-and-
tax-fairness-policies
• Middle Class - https://www.investopedia.com/comparing-the-economic-plans-of-trump-and-biden-
4843240
• Middle class dominate suburbia - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/06/the-american-
middle-class-is-stable-in-size-but-losing-ground-financially-to-upper-income-families/
• Canada has better middle class than United States primarily due to how Canada has better education, wealth
transfer, and other policies. Canada has issues with job quality
• Source - https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040615/what-country-has-richest-middle-class.asp
• Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canadas-gdp-july-2020

5. United States Middle Class
Source - https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/

6. Income Inequality
Source - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/

7. USA Job Quality Index
Source - https://www.jobqualityindex.com/

8. Job Quality by President

9. FDI / USA
Source - https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/direct-investment-country-and-industry-2018

10. GDP by Sector
Source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/248004/percentage-added-to-the-us-gdp-by-industry/
2019 2016

11. September 2020 – GDP

12. States and GDP
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f7fb61e7-1794-4548-b905-
3a327d762477/?keyword=states

13. GDP - USA
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f7fb61e7-1794-4548-b905-
3a327d762477/?keyword=states

14. Economic Zones
@AOC I think there needs to be GAO performance audits of many of the @realDonaldTrump including the economic
zones.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/opportunity-zones-usa-analysis-and-commentary
Joe Biden Economic Zones
Source - https://joebiden.com/racial-economic-equity/
• There are many issues facing local government including affordable housing, cost of living, crumbling infrastructure,
fiscal management cycle, and other areas - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-happening-with-united-
states-cities-and-local-government

15. Personal Income / Consumption
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/3ea895c5-1d3c-4b1b-ab17-
9bf2203584ed/?keyword=states

16. USA Green Economy
Source - https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics/joe-biden-clean-energy-plan/index.html
• USA is a carbon sink -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electricty-
the-grid-whats-next-for-co2-emissions
• Green economy in the USA is already $1.3 trillion per
year - https://phys.org/news/2019-10-green-
economy-worth-trillion-year.html
• Clean technology
• Must be viable
• Requires raw materials, smelting, fabrication,
delivery and installation
• Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
canada-clean-technolgy-and-the-green-
economy
• USA generates nearly 62% from non-clean sources -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/power-
generation-canada-and-the-world
• USA would have to move these load factors to
nuclear, hydro, and other options

17. USA Infrastructure
Source -
https://www.brookings.edu/research/shifting-into-
an-era-of-repair-us-infrastructure-spending-
trends/
Source - https://joebiden.com/infrastructure/
• Post COVID19 – Infrastructure spending proposal -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-
16/trump-team-weighs-1-trillion-for-infrastructure-
to-spur-economy
• Funding new infrastructure will require a series of
fees - https://www.blog.invesco.us.com/us-
infrastructure-spending-may-lead-to-compelling-
investment-opportunities/
• Infrastructure bill passed -
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/01/house-
approves-1-5t-bill-to-fix-us-infrastructure/
• Oversight into spending is required by GAO -
https://budget.house.gov/publications/report/st
rong-infrastructure-and-healthy-economy-
require-federal-investment

18. Education and Healthcare
Source - https://www.businessinsider.com/us-
ranks-27th-for-healthcare-and-education-2018-
9
Joe Biden / Education
Source - https://joebiden.com/education/ or https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/nation-
world/trump-vs-biden-2020-election/507-19d28b86-cd57-4567-a007-2d7e16145352
• USA has a very solid educational system -
https://ceoworld.biz/2020/05/10/ranked-worlds-best-
countries-for-education-system-2020/
• USA trails countries like Canada in terms of education -
https://www.kelownanow.com/watercooler/news/news/Ed
ucation/Canada_stays_near_top_of_rankings_in_global_edu
cation_survey/
• USA has a solid university system -
https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=201
90912131138561
• Human capital related issues will need to be address by
countries around the world -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/automation-and-
human-capital-management-human-resources

19. Healthcare
Source - https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-
rankings/best-healthcare-in-the-world
2020 Ranking
Source - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-
09-29/u-s-health-care-system-ranks-as-one-of-the-least-
efficient
• Healthcare is going to face many challenges over the next decade or so. It will be important for governments around the world come up with innovated
solutions - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-global-healthcare-post-covid19
• Co-Pay/Healthcare reforms - https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/07/how-does-the-us-healthcare-system-compare-to-other-countries
https://www.wellsteps.com/blog/2020/01/02/benefits-of-wellness-lower-health-care-costs/
• Joe Biden and healthcare “Biden campaign officials say the health care plan serves as a transitional piece of legislation that could pave the path to a Medicare-
for-All single payer system in the future. ” - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-
political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1030086#blogHeader
• ObamaCare Failures - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-obamacare-failures-that-have-hurt-americans-2016-03-24

20. Housing
Source - https://www.curbed.com/2019/5/15/18617763/affordable-housing-policy-rent-real-estate-apartment
• The prospects aren’t much better for renters,
either. Approximately 18.5 million households were
spending more than half their income on housing in
2016. There’s not a single county nationwide where
a minimum wage earner working 40 hours per
week can afford a "modest" two-bedroom
apartment without being cost-burdened, according
to government standards Source
https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/dec/30/fa
cts-housing-affordability-united-states/
• USA has similar issues with Canada which include
the cost of land, availability of land, cost of lumber,
taxes, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/latest-
news-housing-canada-june-2020
• Obama and housing foreclosure -
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016
/12/obamas-failure-to-mitigate-americas-
foreclosure-crisis/510485/ and Wealth -
https://jacobinmag.com/2017/12/obama-
foreclosure-crisis-wealth-inequality

21. Housing
Canada
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently published a report that analyzed the real estate markets in the Group of Seven countries during the
second quarter. According to the report, Canadian residential real estate prices reported the biggest jump in the G7, rising 2.42% from Q1-2020.
The next biggest jump by a G7 country was France, rising 1.71%. This occurred in Canada despite soaring vacancy rates and very little
immigration during the April-to-June period. To get a better understanding of the Canadian housing market, RE/MAX shared the average sales
prices and the year-over-year growth from August.
 Greater Toronto Area: $890,400 (+11.1%)
 Greater Vancouver Area: $1,038,700 (+5.3%)
 Ottawa: $517,800 (+19.9%)
 Greater Montreal Area: $408,200 (+16.4%)
 Halifax: $372,982 (+18.1%)
Source - https://torontostoreys.com/canada-real-estate-market-winter-remax/
United States
U.S. housing starts rose 1.9% in September to a 2-month high of 1.415 mln units annualized. That not only missed expectations, but it came off
a downwardly revised July and August. But hey, that is cool, as the underlying details were far better than what the headline showed. The all-
important single-family component jumped 8.5% to a 13-year high of 1.108 mln units (or June 2007), or 78% of total starts, while multis fell at a
double-digit pace for the second straight month. Insert well-known anecdotes of working from home, search for more space/rooms/thicker
walls, etc. Perhaps what is more important is the indicator for future starts. Building permits jumped a higher-than-expected 5.2% to 1.553 mln
units annualized, the highest since March 2007. Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/1660e445-4e38-4b30-9c83-
d12c96cd8ceb/
My work - Canada - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-analysis-and-commentary-canada

22. Foreign Affairs and Policies
• Trade imbalances with countries - https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top2006yr.html
• Foreign Policies and Affairs
• Top presidents – Foreign Policies and Affairs - https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/the-best-
and-worst-foreign-policy-presidents-of-the-past-century/242781/
• Need for a new foreign policy direction - https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/05/why-the-united-states-will-need-a-
new-foreign-policy.html
• Biden approach will be similar to that of Obama - https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-
east/articles/biden-foreign-policy
• Sudan and Israel - https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/10/29/sudan-joins-a-wave-of-arab-
states-recognising-israel
• Trump isolated the USA with his bullying tactics - https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/28/to-g-20-leaders-trumps-
bully-boy-routine-has-grown-old-japan-g-20-summit-osaka-trump-putin-china-india-germany-japan/
• USA needs to move away from NWO – Biden in the past has supported expanding USA role with the United Nations -
https://www.democratsagainstunagenda21.com/vp-joe-biden-and-the-new-world-order.html
• USA will need to review its immigration policy -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2019/08/23/immigrants-troubled-by-trumps-new-immigration-policy-
restrictions/#56cbfbd53b34
• Proper support for ICE - https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/the-cost-of-immigration-
enforcement-and-border-security - Kamala Harris has raised issues with ICE -
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-ice-kkk-senate-hearing. ICE enforces laws. Kamala Harris was a
former DA which meant she enforced laws.

23. Post-Secondary Education
Source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/238109/tuition-and-fees-in-the-us/
• One oddity of America’s higher-education system is
that it is actually three different systems
masquerading as one: There is one system of public
colleges; another of private, nonprofit institutions;
and one made up of for-profit colleges. -
https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/201
8/09/why-is-college-so-expensive-in-
america/569884/
• Free Education would cost the treasury nearly $80B
per year -
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/business/tui
tion-free-college.html
• States are struggling with debt, taxation policy and
the delivery of social programs
• Less spending by states means more pressure
on higher tuition rates -
https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-
and-tax/a-lost-decade-in-higher-education-
funding

24. USA Budget Deficit
• Currently there is nearly 4 trillion deficit due to COVID19 –
• Budget deficit latest fiscal year-end - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/us-government-budget-
ends-fiscal-year-with-a-more-than-3-trillion-deficit.html
• Democrats would look at deep cuts to the Military -
https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/07/20/defund-pentagon-effort-holds-message-for-
biden/
• There has been no budget surplus since 2001
• USA needs to bring in more tax fairness as well as focus on value for money when it comes to
delivering of social programs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/designing-social-programs-
and-tax-fairness-policies
• Fitch has raised concerns about the debt - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-
revises-united-states-outlook-to-negative-affirms-at-aaa-31-07-2020
• Biden plans additional spending - https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/bidens-
spending-proposals-could-top-10-trillion-draws-ire-trump-campaign It is unclear how Biden plans to
pay for the new spending
• Source - https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

25. The real Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris
DA - https://theappeal.org/kamala-harris-criminal-justice-record-killed-her-presidential-run/
Policies - https://spotlightonpoverty.org/kamala-harris/ Kamala is supporter of Bernie Sanders free stuff
policies
Banking - https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/08/kamala-harris-trump-obama-california-attorney-general
or https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Kamala-Harris-mortgage-meltdown-record-under-
13730708.php or https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-senate-harris-banks-20161016-snap-
story.html

26. Foreign Policies and Affairs
• Joe Biden and Iran - https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/07/joe-bidens-new-mission-selling-
the-iran-deal/449295/
• Trump has broker agreements (Israel and Bahrain, Israel and UAE) -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-policies-and-affairs-middle-east-238466898 or
https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-critics-of-iran-deal-dont-get-it/#gs.g0wusp
• Success/failures - https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/the-best-and-worst-foreign-
policy-presidents-of-the-past-century/242781/
• Obama failures - https://time.com/76868/obama-foreign-policy-cynicism/
• Biden Foreign policies - https://thehill.com/policy/international/194889-was-biden-always-wrong
• Biden on Trade - https://www.cato.org/blog/joe-bidens-so-so-record-trade
• USA/Trump has been cleaning up trade - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-united-states

27. Crime and Punishment
• There needs to be more audits including fixing DA that are allowing partisan politics to dictate their
prosecution of criminals
• DA - https://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-prosecutors-elections-district-attorney-races.html
• Neither Trump nor Obama got public safety completely right - https://www.brennancenter.org/our-
work/analysis-opinion/crime-down-does-president-trump-deserve-credit
• Public safety - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/public-safety-crime-and-punishment
• Fixing and unfair legal system - https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2015/07/15/president-obama-
our-criminal-justice-system-isnt-smart-it-should-be
• Trump introduced opportunity zones - https://www.forbes.com/sites/morgansimon/2019/03/30/what-
you-need-to-know-about-opportunity-zones/#5ef49ff06ae2
• More performance audits of key policies like opportunity zones -
https://home.kpmg/us/en/home/insights/2020/01/tnf-kpmg-report-analysis-and-observations-
about-final-regulations-and-future-of-opportunity-zone-investments.html

28. Environment
• Obama and Biden - https://grist.org/article/biden_factsheet/
• USA generates nearly 45% from clean sources
• Electrical producers are moving away from large scale nuclear powerplants to small plants -
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/first-u-s-small-nuclear-reactor-design-is-approved/ or
https://www.opb.org/article/2020/09/03/us-first-ever-ok-small-commercial-nuclear-reactor/
• https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php
• The big issues are that many States are pushing for wind and solar. There are many issues with wind and solar
including the need for backup power systems - https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-
gas/u-s-natural-gas-output-demand-to-fall-in-2021-after-hitting-records-in-2020-eia/74094895

29. Environment
• Obama and Biden - https://grist.org/article/biden_factsheet/
• Trump - https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-trump-administrations-track-
record-on-the-environment/
Summary
The next USA government needs to bring in more balanced when it comes to Economy and the Environment -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-change-and-the-environment-how-do-we-resolve

30. Climate Change and the Environment
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/environment-and-safety/getting-warmer-trump-concedes-human-role-in-
climate-change-261442/
President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged that humans bear some blame for climate change. The govt through
its bad policies has led to issues with the environment, i.e forest mgmt., urban planning, and water mgmt.
@JoeBiden @realDonaldTrump
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-change-what-can-be-done

31. Manufacturing
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
• More needs to be done to support the manufacturing sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-and-usa-july-2020

32. ManufacturingCanada
 Canada continues to struggle with growing/expanding their manufacturing sector through changes to tax policies, more regulations, and new
taxes like carbon and fuel standard taxes
o MFG sales decline in August 2020 (Month over Month change_ https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Canada-Factory-Sales-
Decline-2-in-August--31553980/
o Canada needs to be more competitive when it comes to manufacturing, especially on key input costs areas like labor rates, capital cost
write-downs, hydro rates, access to raw materials - https://ppforum.ca/publications/revitalizing-canadas-manufacturing-economy-for-a-
post-covid-world/
o Canada should be benefiting from its natural resources sector, especially supporting the manufacturing sector. However, bad policies and
taxes have hammered the natural resources sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/natural-resources-canada-how-best-to-get-
goods-to-market
United States
 United States MFG continues to shrink as % of total GDP - https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/22028495/manufacturing-is-
now-smallest-share-of-us-economy-in-72-years
 USA has five major areas that drive manufacturing in the USA - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042915/5-industries-driving-
us-economy.asp
 If the green agenda gets pushed after the next federal election, then 8% of USA GDP is at risk including millions of job -
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/taxes/oil-and-natural-gas-contribution-to-us-economy-fact-sheet - Oil and gas support key sectors
like steel, metal fabrication, etc.
 More changes to tax and regulation policies as part of supporting the reshoring of manufacturing is required by all levels of government -
https://hbr.org/2020/04/bringing-manufacturing-back-to-the-u-s-is-easier-said-than-done
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-and-usa-august-2020-and-september-2020 and Supply Chain
Management - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tranformation-of-supply-chains

33. Immigration / Open Borders
Source - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/20/key-findings-about-u-s-immigrants/
More needs to be done to reform immigration and refugee policies - USA has similar problems as Canada when it
comes to management of immigration - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-review-immigration-and-
border-control

34. USA and Defense
• Trump put money back into the military over the past few years -
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget
• Obama and military - https://www.politifact.com/article/2015/dec/14/politifact-sheet-our-guide-to-
military-spending-/
• There are many issues facing the world including eco-terrorism, the rise of China, and other geopolitical
events
• China - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-happening-with-china or
https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/americans-not-fully-conscious-of-chinese-military-threat-to-
us-commander-says-1.645054
• Eco-Terrorism - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-threat-of-ecoterrorism
• Geo-political issues - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-understanding-
geopolitics

35. USA
• USA will need to address many issues of social policies like income transfers, education, social policy, and healthcare
• USA GDP was seeing a growth in manufacturing. USA needs to continue to push for near shoring of manufacturing
• USA will need to have all levels of governments to embrace more operational and performance audits -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-audit-and-performance-base-auditing
• USA will need to work with G7 and G20 to reform global organizations like the UN, WHO, WTO and other organizations
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-global-trade-barriers-and-protection-wto-canada-
september-2019
• USA needs to reform its tax act - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/are-wealth-tax-a-good-idea and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/designing-social-programs-and-tax-fairness-policies
• USA needs to reform its criminal justice system - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crime-and-public-safety-
how-to-fix-a-broken-public-safety-and-legal-system
• Automation will continue to rise - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-automation-private-and-
public-sector
• Government will need to have the right balance between the environment and GDP as part of supporting both the
economy and the environment - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-economy-whats-next
• All parties need to put partisan politics aside and work together as part of supporting Americans -
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/14/as-the-u-s-copes-with-multiple-crises-partisans-disagree-
sharply-on-severity-of-problems-facing-the-nation/