This presentation looks at various angles as it relates to the fiscal management cycle.

1. What is going on with the
Fiscal Management Cycle
for Canada - May 2020
Paul Young CPA CGA
May 15, 2020

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
• CPC Deficit/Promise
• NDP Deficit / Promise
• LPC Deficit / Promise
• Audits / Oversight
• Current Fiscal Position
• Pharmacare / Major Plank
• Taxation and Fairness
• Debt to GDP
• PBO Platform Costing
• Fiscal monitor
• GDP Growth / Deficits
• Summary

4. Introduction
• This presentation looks at key planks by the Liberals as
well as fiscal management cycle for each party.
• Federal government has undertaken $252B+ in deficit
spending as part of the COVID19 response.

5. CPC Plan
Source -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/
politics/scheer-
conservative-platform-
unveiled-1.5318850

6. NDP
Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-platform-costing-fact-check-
1.5318913
• Taxing the rich never works -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyo
ungcga/does-taxing-the-top-1-
generate-the-tax-dollars
• NDP has zero interest in
developing natural resources
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyo
ungcga/have-the-liberal-party-of-
canada-supported-the-natural-
resources-sector
• NDP policies failed in AB as such
would be a disaster at the federal
level

7. LPC / Deficit Promise
Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-pbo-costing-platform-1.5289127 or https://globalnews.ca/news/5967850/analysis-liberals-real-change-different-2019/
• Liberal plan has not been totally costed
• Liberals said they would run modest deficits in
2015. Liberals Deficits were between 1B to 18B
per year.
• Liberals 2015-2019 was failed example of
Keynesian economics -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ca
nada-fail-experiment-with-trudeaunomics

8. Current Fiscal Position

9. COVID19 – Fiscal Management
Source - https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/economic-response-plan.html , CIBC

10. Federal Stimulus
Source -
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-
says-feds-will-clean-up-after-the-fact-amid-
cerb-fraud-concerns-1.4938611
On Tuesday, The National Post reported
that some federal employees have been
told to ignore potential cases of cheating
and that compliance and enforcement
have been suspended. An unnamed
source cited in the story said 200,000
applications have been "red-flagged" as
potentially fraudulent.
Non answer from Duclos

11. COVID19 Response / Deficit
• The $252B stimulus to go higher - https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-
markets/how-will-canada-pay-for-its-covid-19-response/
• Trudeau scoffs at questions related to the deficit including fraud -
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeau-scoffs-at-questions-about-hundreds-of-
millions-in-fraudulent-payments
• Seniors - https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/federal-
government-giving-seniors-one-time-payment-up-
to-500-to-help-with-covid-19-costs/
• Students -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/
04/27/canada-is-giving-college-students-1250-a-
month-should-we/#7cd052ac2a33
• Aid regional agencies -
https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/13/smaller-firms-
ineligible-for-federal-business-programs-can-now-
apply-for-aid-through-regional-agencies/
• CFL ask -
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/cfl/cfl-financial-
assistance-federal-government-1.5548638
• Local and provincial government have yet to ask -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/covid-
19-1.5569499

12. Audits and Oversight
• What are performance audits?
• In an audit that is intended to evaluate the
effectiveness, economy and efficiency of a
program, the auditor might seek to answer
questions such as:
• Has the program achieved the goals specified
by legislation, regulation or the organization
itself?
• Does the program duplicate other programs
or conflict with them?
• Do the benefits of this program justify its
costs?
• Performance audits, which are also known as
"value for money" audits, have become
increasingly common in the public sector
over the past few decades. The private
sector has also begun to implement
performance audits as well.
• The federal government cut back the Auditor-
General’s Budget –
• Audits are very important as part of oversight-
https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/auditor-general-
says-lack-of-funding-covid-19-demands-have-put-
all-but-three-audits-on-pause/ However, there is
money for the WHO
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vaccination-
canada-gavi-covid-pandemic-1.5566532 (no
oversight) -
• The importance of performance audits
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-
importance-of-value-for-money-and-perfomance-
based-audits
• New auditor-general -
https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-
releases/2020/05/13/prime-minister-nominates-
new-auditor-general

13. Pharmacare
Source - https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/global-economics/fiscal-pulse.html or https://medicinehatnews.com/commentary/opinions/2019/09/27/national-affairs-the-
liberals-pharmacare-plan-is-really-unimpressive-and-vague/
• No government implemented Pharmacare in the past due to its costs. @justintrudeau is being very coy, because he knows the true cost!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-national-pharmacare-drugs-canada-and-the-provinces-august-2019
• Ontario tried to make changes and it was a disaster – “In 2017, CIHI reported $38.2 billion was spent on all “drugs.” Yet, according to PMPRB, total gross
sales of patented drugs at factory list prices were $16.8 billion in 2017, which accounts for only 44 per cent of the “drugs” total reported by CIHI that year.
Net sales are even lower after rebates. Ontario’s auditor general reported the rebate was 30 per cent for the provincial public drug plans in 2017.” Or “Public
drug plan spending on the direct costs of patented drugs at factory list prices was $7.0 billion in 2017, representing only 4.2 per cent of the $165.7 billion in
total health spending by federal, provincial and territorial governments that year. Gross sales of patented drugs were the same percentage of government
health costs in 2017 (4.2 per cent) as in 2000 (4.2 per cent), an 18-year period of zero average annual growth relative to total government health
expenditure. https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/drug-prices-arent-a-big-problem-but-ottawas-trying-to-control-the-market-anyway
• Ontario Drug changes “Three different cases, but in each one Lysyk comes to the same conclusion: implementing policy is hard;
getting the details right matters; and even when it comes to priority cases (like reducing prescription drug costs), there are
tradeoffs that need to be made. When things aren’t priorities (like the OMB or the affordable housing file), they tend to
stagnate. And these are the files the Liberals most want to be judged on in the upcoming election.” -
https://www.tvo.org/article/the-latest-auditor-general-report-shows-its-hard-for-governments-to-make-a-plan-and-stick-to-it

14. Tax Fairness and Collection
• Liberals made changes to top 1% to only to see rich finds ways around paying more taxes -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/taxing-the-top-1-and-wealth-distribution
• Liberals have done little to either reform the ITA or shut down tax havens -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-who-do-your-trust-more-when-it-comes-
to-tax-fairness
• Liberals policies have also made Canada less competitive (C69, carbon tax, CPP Hike, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-canada-competitivenes-september-2019
2019 Election Promise

15. Debt to GDP
• Canada keeps bragging about top debt to GDP in the G7. The problem is Canada’s debt size is
getting to be a concerned to bond traders - https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/market-talk/is-
canada-about-to-lose-its-aaa-credit-rating-255766.aspx “The agency says that Canada is nearing
levels that would make it incompatible with a AAA rating. However, it notes that the deficits are
relatively low at less than 1% of GDP and it expects the government’s debt ratio to fall toward
85% over the medium term. ”

16. Platform / Costing
Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-pbo-costing-platform-1.5289127 or
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/liberal-platform-projects-deficits-
of-over-20-billion-per-year-for-four-years-adds-31-5-billion-in-debt

17. Fiscal Update

18. Fiscal Monitor / December 2019
Source – Government of Canada

19. GDP Growth and Deficits

20. Training and Development
• If you like to learn
more about trade
and/or other subjects
as part of your
professional learning
and development then
feel free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.co
m/ (search Paul Young
CPA CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues
with housing and/or
systemic issues related
to economy including
government policies

21. Summary
• Liberals have no plan to balance the budget, but plan to add approximately $80B deficit.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-liberal-platform-shows-deficit-climbing-to-27-billion/
• CPC have plan to balance the budget with five years - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew-scheer-to-run-deficits-1.5147624
(The problem is there are many issues with various programs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-canada-fiscal-
management-results
• Maxine Bernier promises to balance budget in two years despite knowing what the current states of finances -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/who-are-ppc-and-maxine-bernier
• Both the Greens and NDP have aspirational plans on spending with no clear plan to balance the budget –
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-green-party-of-canada-a-valid-choice-to-govern or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/should-you-vote-for-the-ndp-new-democratic-party
• GDP is heading for difficulties due to many factors like protectionism policies, failed government policies, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/world-and-slow-economic-growth
• More focus must be on delivering of social programs as well as tax reforms - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-
election-social-programs-and-taxation-canada-june-2019
• All governments must be focus on better balance between the environment and the economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-emissions-and-what-can-be-done-to-reduced-co2-emissions
• Middle class has been facing pressure due to many factors including bad govt policies -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-middle-class-continues-to-struggle
• Too many governments do not do enough to adjust to either a foreign government or economic conditions facing their countries -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-with-canadas-competitiveness
• Lack of oversight by Liberals - https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeau-scoffs-at-questions-about-hundreds-of-
millions-in-fraudulent-payments or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/has-justin-trudeau-been-truly-open-transparent-and-
accoountable-when-it-comes-to-governing-canada