Blog – Urban Transit – What is next – September 2022 It has been nearly 3 years since the first outbreak of COVID19. Transit ridership for large transit system continues to run at 60% of the pre-covid level. Hybrid work models are here to stay. More and more companies are doing about 3 days of week in the office and the rest of time at home. With declining ridership there is little said about the need to optimize transit systems across many municipalities There are many progressives that think transit should be free. Any shortfall from transit will need to be made up through higher taxes and/or the cutting of services. More and more transit fleets are moving to net zero. The cost to move to completely next zero will costs billions!

1. PRESENTER
PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
OCTOBER 19, 2022
How is Canada Transit doing in
Canada and the World

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3.  Large Urban Transit / Monthly Trends
 Large Urban Transit / Annual Trends
 VIA Rail
 Capital Investment
 Mississauga Transit
 Transit and Audits
 Fleets
 Data, analytics, and Platform
 Summary
Agenda

4.  Transits are important to assist with moving people around from one location to another location
 There are issues facing transit including the subsidies that government provide to support transit
 Building more transit needs to include a proper risk management. There are routes being added
that lose moneys which means more government moneys is required to support those routes
 Transit needs to look at synergies including consolidation of transit systems within a geographic
area
 Govt need to bring back the non-refundable tax credit for Transit. This tax credit help the middle
class
 Liberal government killed the transit tax credit and then created a carbon tax rebate. The problem
is the next impact of the carbon tax will mean on average families will pay $1,000 more in carbon
taxes (ex of the rebate)
Summary

5.  Source – Stats Canada
Large Urban Transit Stats

6. USA and Transit Ridership

7. Source – Stats Canada
Transportation Equipment
• If transit purchased 400 new business a year then it would take 30 years to removed diesel buses from
their fleet

8. Transit Asset / Physical State

9. Source - https://media.viarail.ca/en/publications
VIA Rail The rail company wants to build a multibillion-dollar new network of dedicated
passenger-rail lines in Ontario and Quebec, so its trains would no longer have to yield to
freight trains on borrowed tracks
https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2019/06/25/business-report-via-expected-to-
overhaul-corridor-between-windsor-quebec/
Facts:
1. VIA rail already gets a sizable grant from the government -
https://media.viarail.ca/en/publications (2017 In 2017 the total grants (operational
and capital funding) were approximately $354M
2. High speed rail has to be viable - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/high-
speed-rail-1.4915058 - There are other options to fund rail
3. High speed works in Asia to how the population is distributed –
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149608.shtml
4. High speed rail has been a failure in EU - https://www.ft.com/content/e77dc48e-
7894-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475 or
https://www.euractiv.com/section/railways/news/eus-high-speed-rail-plan-is-
ineffective-unrealistic-say-auditors/
5. There are financing issues - https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-
trends/Catalyst-or-catastrophe-Lessons-from-Asia-s-high-speed-rail-failures
Summary
The liberals never seem to do proper business cases as such throw money at winning
votes and not whether a project is either profitable or viable without direct government
subsidies.

10.  TTC “The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an 80 per cent drop in ridership and a loss of $90 million in
monthly revenue – money that is essential to sustain operations. In addition to the layoffs, the TTC has
also implemented the following cost-saving measures:” Source -
https://www.ttc.ca/News/2020/May/24_05_20NR_costsavings.jsp
 Go Transit “A massive drop in ridership has forced the temporary layoff of 196 Bombardier workers
assigned to GO Transit and UP Express, company spokesperson Annick Robinson says.“Regarding our
work in Ontario with Metrolink, we have, since the beginning of the health crisis, been able to keep our
team fully employed,” Robinson said in an email Thursday.” -
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/covid-19-has-transit-services-pleading-for-money-from-federal-
government-as-fare-boxes-run-empty or https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/huge-ridership-drop-
prompts-layoffs-at-go-transit-up-express
 Transit buses expansion - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-and-ontario-invest-in-public-
transit-and-active-transportation-infrastructure-for-southwestern-ontario-residents-822839237.html
 Brampton Transit - https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/government/2020/08/brampton-
receives-funding-to-upgrade-transit-system
COVID 19 Transit

11.  Money for Transit - https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020/7/historic-agreement-
delivers-up-to-4-billion-to-support-municipalities-and-transit.html
 Emergency funding - https://www.atu.org/media/releases/atu-applauds-emergency-
funding-for-ontarios-transit-systems-encourages-other-provinces-to-make-the-same-
commitment
 https://fcm.ca/en/news-media/news-release/fcm-statement-the-2021-federal-budget
“"Growing the Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund”
Funding / Transit

12.  Green Buses - https://electricautonomy.ca/2020/10/01/federal-investment-zev-bus-charging/ - It
should be noted that over 82% of the power generation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/report-electricity-analysis-canada-and-the-world-
238885441 . Many municipalities want to eliminate natural gas. Natural gas makes up 9% of the power
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-next-for-natural-gas -
https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-news/kitchener-council-calls-on-province-to-phase-out-gas-
fired-power-production-2828118 - Kitchener has buses that run on natural gas or other fuels -
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/grand-river-transit-expands-brt-fleet-with-an-order-from-
new-flyer-665531563.html
 Transit budget shortfalls - https://www.cp24.com/news/city-to-face-1-5-billion-shortfall-in-2021-
budget-amid-unimaginable-financial-pressures-from-covid-19-report-1.5144626 or
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-finances-transit-revenues-deficit-1.5755267
Transit

13. Source – 2018 -
https://www.industryweek.com/technology-
and-iiot/article/22025063/electric-buses-will-
take-over-half-the-worlds-fleet-by-2025
Fleet / Clean
Nearly half of the municipal buses on the road
worldwide will be electric within seven years, with
China expected to dominate the global market as it
aims to cut urban pollution and support domestic
manufacturers.
The total number of electric buses in service is
forecast to more than triple, from 386,000 last year
to about 1.2 million in 2025, equal to about 47% of
the worldwide city bus fleet, according to a report
from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
“China will lead this market, due to strong domestic
support and aggressive city-level targets,” wrote
Aleksandra O’Donovan, an analyst for BNEF and
author of the study.
Source - https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-
bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-
around-world/ or
https://autosphere.ca/fleet/2020/09/21/electric-buses-
growing-towards-a-50-percent-global-market-share/

14.  Financial Planning and Analysis - https://ibm.box.com/s/0fg1f62zrtjmvcwicu1bm6u6emwkle88
 Close, consolidate, and reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/i7efp948qvb5l8bt96y8sigsup8yes2u
 Analytics and Reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/fh9cns7sk3ffwhsqhazqpndz1kj3mqbk
 Risk and Fraud - https://ibm.box.com/s/noi1j6ixzl6ralxkm4g0zzs911wf6s76
 CloudPak for Data - https://www.zdnet.com/article/ibm-takes-the-next-step-with-cloud-pak-for-data/
 Asset management - https://www.ibm.com/business-operations/enterprise-asset-management
Data, AI and Platform for Transit

15.  Transit systems are heavily subsidized as such declining in ridership will force changes like reduction in routes or property
tax increases or other policy changes
 More and more investment by local governments into smarter cities -
https://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/smarter_cities/solutions/human_solutions/
 More and more people are working remotely - https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-asking-employees-to-work-
from-home-due-to-coronavirus-2020
 Transit will need to adjust to new normal which could see a reduction in ridership as more people will work remotely -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-for-canada-and-the-world
 Uber and rural transit - https://www.straight.com/tech/could-uber-be-future-of-public-transit-in-rural-communities
 COVID19 - https://www.macleans.ca/society/all-the-ways-the-pandemic-could-change-cities-forever/
 Municipal shortfalls - https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/article/21209852/canada-to-invest-nearly-c15-
billion-in-transit-over-eight-years or https://www.hamilton.ca/government-information/news-centre/news-
releases/gtha-mayors-and-chairs-concerned-about-covid-19
What’s next
Blog – Urban Transit – What is next – September 2022
It has been nearly 3 years since the first outbreak of COVID19. Transit ridership for large transit system
continues to run at 60% of the pre-covid level.
Hybrid work models are here to stay. More and more companies are doing about 3 days of week in the
office and the rest of time at home.
With declining ridership there is little said about the need to optimize transit systems across many
municipalities
There are many progressives that think transit should be free. Any shortfall from transit will need to be
made up through higher taxes and/or the cutting of services.
More and more transit fleets are moving to net zero. The cost to move to completely next zero will costs
billions!
Election at a point of
inflection – Winnipeg Free Press.pdf
ELECTION The
incredible shrinking transit debate - Spacing Toronto.pdf
7 challenges in
last-mile delivery and steps to address them.pdf
Kelowna bus drivers
offered 9_ over three years First Transit Globalnews.ca.pdf
The transit file will be
tough for Ottawa's next city council CBC News.pdf
Better integrated
transit services can't come soon enough for these GTA commuters CBC News.pdf
Canada to invest
$2.75 billion in zero-emissions buses and charging infrastructure - BrightVibes.pdf
By investing in
infrastructure, we improve the lives of Canadians - The Hill Times.pdf
Local businesses see
hybrid work continuing City News thesuburban.com.pdf
Owning a condo in
Hamilton costs 20 per cent more than renting Zoocasa TheSpec.com.pdf
Last Mile Delivery
Optimization for the Most Challenging Routes.pdf
Mayoral candidates
spar over transportation, convoy in CBC Ottawa's debate CBC News.pdf
Making transit free
just makes good sense - Municipal World.pdf
1. Wages - https://globalnews.ca/news/9175185/kelowna-bus-drivers-offer-first-transit-tuesday/