GDP So far, the GCC region has avoided the tighter restrictions seen in Europe and in some countries in the region such as Jordan and Lebanon. Indeed, with infections largely in check, the GCC countries have continued to ease out of lockdowns. While clearly positive, Google mobility trends show the pace of return to normality has slowed, particularly in the important workplace category, and tourism traffic has also been subdued. Moreover, the oil sector remains a drag on overall growth as countries adhere to OPEC+ production cutbacks. So, with both oil and non-oil sectors facing hurdles, the GCC is set for a large GDP contraction of 5.3% this year, before recovering by 2.4% in 2021. https://www.fitchsolutions.com/topic/middle-east or https://www.icaew.com/technical/economy/economic-insight/economic-insight-middle-east Saudi Arabia “The overall progress with the economic cities has been very slow, even before the collapse of the oil price,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC. “Since then, the pace of development has moderated even further with a number of projects being placed on hold.” https://www.magzter.com/stories/Business/Bloomberg-Businessweek-Middle-East/Saudi-Arabia-Builds-Cities-In-The-Sand-To-Move-Beyond-Oil • All countries showing signs of expansion in Q3 except for Lebanon • Mobility index shows a marked increase but still 20-25% below 2019 baseline • Real GDP for GCC countries set for growth and recovery in 2021 • Blockchain adoption could boost global GDP by $1.7 trillion, creating 40 million jobs https://www.pwc.com/m1/en/media-centre/2020/economy-watch-2020-q3-recovery-begins-but-long-term-challenges-remain.html

1. Government Policies
– Iran and the Middle
East
Paul Young CPA, CGA
January 5, 2021

2. Agenda
• Fiscal Management / Middle East
• GDP Growth
• Iran Demographics
• Iran Government
• Iran 1970s and Iran 2017
• Iran GDP
• Natural Gas
• Iran FDI
• Canada and Iran
• Middle East Relations
• Alexander Trudeau/Documentary
• Israel and UAE
• Israel and Bahrain
• Lebanon
• Saudi Arabia
• USA and Middle East
• Qatar and Saudi Arabia
• Middle East Economy

3. Fiscal
Management
Source -
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-
Prices/Gulf-Nations-Are-Desperate-
For-Higher-Oil-Prices.html

4. GDP Growth Rates
Source -
https://www.statista.com/statistics
/1033423/mena-gdp-growth-by-
country/

5. Iran Demographics
Source - http://www.indexmundi.com/iran/demographics_profile.html

6. Iran Government
Iran is a Middle-Eastern country
also known as the Islamic Republic
of Iran and has a theocratic
government, in which most policies
are based on Islamic religious
ideologies. The political structure of
the country comprises of the
supreme leader, the executive, the
legislature, the judiciary, and other
institutions such as the Assembly of
Experts, the Expediency
Discernment Council, and the City
and Village Councils of Iran.
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-type-of-
government-does-the-iran-have.html

7. Iran 1970s IRAN Now

8. Iran GDP
Iran is the second largest economy in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
region after Saudi Arabia, with an
estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in 2015 of US$393.7 billion. It also has the
second largest population of the region
after Egypt, with an estimated 78.8 million
people in 2015. Iran’s economy is
characterized by the hydrocarbon sector,
agriculture and services sectors, and a
noticeable state presence in manufacturing
and financial services. Iran ranks second in
the world in natural gas reserves and
fourth in proven crude oil reserves.
Economic activity and government
revenues still depend to a large extent on
oil revenues and therefore remain volatile.
Source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/294534/iran-share-of-
economic-sectors-in-gdp/ or
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview

9. Natural Gas – Syria and
Iran
http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-
east/is-the-fight-over-a-gas-pipeline-fuelling-
the-worlds-bloodiest-conflict/news-
story/74efcba9554c10bd35e280b63a9afb74
In fact 80 per cent of the gas that Russian state-controlled
company Gazprom produces is sold to Europe, so maintaining
this crucial market is very important.
But Europe doesn’t like being so reliant on Russia for fuel and
has been trying to reduce its dependence. It’s a move that is
supported by the United States as it would weaken Russian
influence over Europe.
This has not gone down well with Russia, which uses its power
over gas as political leverage and has a history of cutting off
supply to countries during conflicts. It has even gone to war in
Georgia and Ukraine to disrupt plans to export gas from other
parts of the Middle East.
Before the civil war, two competing
pipelines put forward by Qatar and Iran
aimed to transport gas to Europe through
Syria.
Qatar’s plans were first put forward in
2009 and involved building a pipeline
from the Persian Gulf via Saudi Arabia,
Jordan, Syria and Turkey.
The gas field located 3000 meters below
the floor of the Persian Gulf is the largest
natural gas field in the world. Qatar owns
about two-thirds of the resource but can’t
capitalize on it fully because it relies on
tankers to deliver it to other countries
and this makes its gas more expensive
than Russia’s.
It was hoped the pipeline would provide
cheaper access to Europe but Syrian
President Bashar al Assad refused to give
permission for the pipeline to go through
his territory. Some believe Russia
pressured him to reject the pipeline to
safeguard its own business.

10. IRAN FDI
Iran approved the attraction of $11.8 billion in foreign direct
investment during the 12 months to December 21.
Of this sum, $11.33 billion pertain to greenfield and $496 million to
brownfield investments, according to a report recently published
in the government's official website.
The report was published in the runup to the anniversary of the
implementation of Iran’s historic nuclear deal with world powers,
known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, on January 16,
2016. The deal, signed in July 2015, granted Iran relief from years
of economic sanctions in exchange for rolling back the scope of its
nuclear program.
The deal opened the gates to an inflow of foreign capital to rebuild
infrastructures worn out and underdeveloped under the sanctions
at a time when the country faced a nosedive in the price of oil,
which has traditionally been the government's main source of
revenues.
https://financialtribune.com/articles/domes
tic-economy/57154/iran-approves-118b-of-
fdi-post-sanctions

11. Iran – Banking System
https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/may-2016/lifting-veil-iranian-banks

12. Canada and Iran
Government of Canada

13. Alexandre Trudeau
(Justin Trudeau’s
Brother
http://www.neveragaincanada.ca/justin-trudeaus-brother-and-
political-advisor-works-with-iran-to-help-its-nuclear-program/
Alexandre Trudeau, son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau,
and brother and senior political adviser to Liberal leadership
candidate Justin, has been working with the Iranian government to
create propaganda to whitewash its nuclear arms program.
Press TV, the Iranian state-owned propaganda organ, was a co-
producer of the documentary The New Great Game,which was
produced and directed by Alexandre Trudeau. According
to Honest Reporting Canada Executive Director Mike Fegelman,
in the film, the Liberal MP’s brother “reports that Iran’s atomic
ambitions are for “defensive” purposes only, serving as an effective
“deterrent” against Israeli "aggression” and belligerence

14. Middle East
Foreign Policies and Affairs -
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/1
0/five-other-arab-countries-are-
negotiating-normalization-with-
israel.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm
_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3
A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbi
gfuture%29

15. Israel and UAE
Israel and UAE
“Israel and the United Arab Emirates announced Thursday they are establishing full diplomatic relations in a U.S.-
brokered deal that required Israel to halt its contentious plan to annex occupied West Bank land sought by the
Palestinians.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-uae-reach-historic-deal-diplomatic-relations-1.5684905
More work is still required with other middle east countries as way to bring stability to the middle east.

16. Israel and Bahrain
Source - https://www.timesofisrael.com/alternative-normalization-with-saudi-
arabia-seen-in-bahrain-israel-deal/

17. Lebanon corruption
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/additional-aid-for-lebanon-recognizes-political-economic-
challenges-gould-258981/
“International Development Minister Karina Gould says Canada’s decision to increase its humanitarian aid to Lebanon
recognizes the country already faced significant turmoil before last week’s explosion and will need long-term support.”
@karinagould you do realize there has been turmoil in the middle east for decades, right?
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-hezbollah-lebanon-explosion-1523506
It would be nice if Cdns elected people that grasp geopolitical issues including risk
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/dealing-with-geopoltical-risk
Foreign Aid - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-aid-bringing-more-accountability-
transparency-and-oversight

18. Saudi Arabia
Canada and Saudi Arabia
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-the-middle-east-saudi-arabia-foreign-policies-august-2018
Wheat
How about we talk about rift over Wheat? https://www.producer.com/2019/06/shifting-wheat-trade-presents-opportunity/
Canada got a new deal done after Freeland was removed as Foreign Affairs Minister, right?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-saudi-arabia-lav-1.5528460
Blog – Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is going through a transformation led by the new crown prince. The new crown prince is trying to introduce more free
as well as trying clean up corruption at all levels in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia corruption has increased since 2007 -
http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Saudi-Arabia/transparency_corruption/.
Saudi Arabia has the largest economy in the middle east, but is struggling with anemic growth -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2017/10/11/fastest-slowest-economies-middle-east/#2eecb0a23d37
The next steps for Saudi Arabi including its ability to bring in FDI in key sectors like agriculture or advance manufacturing or Inform
technology or construction or other sectors could determine how to success or failure when it comes to the new crown prince of S
Arabia.

19. Saudi Arabia and
Qatar
Source -
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/01/middle
-east-news-iran-hijacks-a-korean-ship-and-a-saudi-
arabia-qatar-deal-unifies-arabs-against-
iran.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=
feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadva
ncednano+%28nextbigfuture%29

20. USA FDI / Middle East
Source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/188602/united-states-direct-investments-in-the-
middle-east-since-2000/

21. Middle East is heavily dependent on oil and gas which fiscal pressures are being faced by many Middle Eastern
Governments - https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/07/18/the-end-of-the-arab-worlds-oil-age-is-
nigh
Middle East countries are investing more in technology - https://www.ft.com/content/13d473f0-b50e-11e9-b2c2-
1e116952691a
Middle East scarce arable lands means opportunities for other countries to export AG related products to them -
https://middle-east-online.com/en/saudi-arabia-sets-533-million-agriculture-imports
Middle eastern countries like UAE continue to diversify themselves into other areas - https://www.consultancy-
me.com/news/2939/uae-now-belongs-to-the-worlds-20-top-economies-for-fdi
Middle east continues to see changes to its job market - https://www.michaelpage.ae/advice/career-advice/growing-your-
career/demand-skills-2020-middle-east
Housing - https://www.ameinfo.com/industry/real-estate/savills-impacts-2020-tipping-points-the-future-of-global-real-
estate
Iran - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/09/middle-east-endgame-with-iran-
contained.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28
nextbigfuture%29
Joe Biden and Middle East - https://www.arabnews.com/node/1704686
Middle East Economy