Discovered new energy, nuclear deals of Iran, oil prices continue to go down, ISIS phenomenon and the failure of Arab Spring, economic deficit of oil exporter islamic countries, will be a sign of new beginning of islamic countries in global energy politics.
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Islamic countries in global energy politics
1. Islamic Countries
in Global Energy Politics
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Energy Legal Practitioner
Jakarta, Indonesia
tasnim.ilmiardhi@yahoo.com
2015
Discovered new energy,
nuclear deals of Iran, oil
prices continue to go
down, ISIS phenomenon
and the failure of Arab
Spring, economic defisit
of oil exporter islamic
countries, will be a sign of
new begining of islamic
countries in global energy
politics
2. Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 1
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics
By:
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Energy Legal Practitioner
Jakarta, Indonesia
tasnim.ilmiardhi@yahoo.com
I. Introduction
Geographically, Islamic countries are at various peninsula and
stretches from Indonesia to Morocco. It has been since along time
ago, Islamic countries active in economy of the world, especially on
the ’Silk Road’, as well as a potential market. After the collapse of the
Turkish Ottoman Emporium, practical Islamic countries become
unconsolidated well in politics and the global economy.
In energy sector, Islamic countries in the Middle East (Persian Gulf
and the Caspian Sea) have 49% of world oil reserves. For the
countries of Saudi Arabia has 60% of world oil reserves. With an
average rate of exploitation as it is today, then Saudi Arabia's
reserves can be exploited up to 125 years, Kuwait 144 years, Iraq 98
years, United Arab Emirates 120 years. Countries that own and
control the source of energy, will have a strategic role in the political
map.
World Energy Reserves
No Country Oil
(billion barrels)
Gas
(trillion cubic feet)
Coal
(million ton)
Nuclear
1 Venuzuela 297,6 196,4 479
2 Saudi Arabia 265,9 290,8 NPP
3 Canada 173,9 70 6.582
4 Iran 157 1.187,3 NPP, R&D
5 Iraq 150 126,7
6 UAE 97,8 215,1 NPP
7 Rusia 87 1.163 157 NPP & ICBM
8 Amerika 35 300 237,3 NPP & ICBM
9 Qatar 23,9 885,1
10 China 17,3 109,3 11.450 NPP
British Petroleum Statistic 2013 & IAEA
Sources of energy, particularly oil and natural gas, a commodity that is contested by many countries.
Not a few conflicts between states are triggered by the problems in the energy resource needs.
Islamic countries in the Middle East to source energy as an issue to keep the country's bargaining
position. Russia uses energy issues to maintain influence over Eastern European countries former
Soviet Union, as well as a supplier of 50% of the EU's oil and gas.
3. II. Allied with Iran
Achieving agreement on nuclear technology
impact on the political map of
Iran negotiating process with the
successfully completed the relevant
Tuesday (07/14/2015). Iran as a country
for peaceful purposes. Accordingly
With the lifting of economic sanctions
have been imposed upon Iran
Iran to return to the player of the world
economy and export of goods, including
and gas. Iran has signaled his intention
return to the global oil market,
maximize the capacity of crude oil
to Europe, if Iran's official entry
world oil market, it is likely the price of oil
and natural gas will be much lower
now. For 2015 alone, already
supply of crude oil and the
continues to fall which made the
continue to fall.
Iran's nuclear mastery is not just
a stable position in politics and
dependency exploration by western countries
Iran is a superpower in terms of
oil reserves, and gas as much as
production is in the second position
addition, Iran has the independence
as Western countries.
III. Oil Prices Continue to Go Down
In 1992, the state Saudi Arabia is the
world's biggest oil consumer. Between
that has existed for a long time.
The return of Iran as the world
more oil in the market. In addition
Exporting contries) will find a market
the medium term.
Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
nuclear technology and the lifting of economic sanctions
the strength of Islam, the price of energy and the
with the six-nation nuclear authorities led by the United States
relevant treaties of nuclear technology in the city of
as a country with a Shiite majority, agreed to have
Accordingly, economic sanctions since 2012, addressed to
economic sanctions that
Iran, enabling
of the world
including oil
his intention to
, by trying to
crude oil exports
entry into the
the price of oil
much lower than
already abundant
and the demand
made the prices
just a prestigious project, but based on the needs and
and economics. As an oil-producing countries, Iran
western countries. This is very different from Saudi
in terms of energy. Iran has oil reserves that have been proven
as much as 15% of the world gas reserves. As an oil producer
position in OPEC and is in fourth position in world oil
independence politically, either among the Middle Eastern countries
Continue to Go Down
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer, and the United States
Between both countries, there has been a cooperative relationship
energy actors, could endanger oil producers, because
In addition, when the oversupply of oil, OPEC (Organization
find a market. Market imbalances will depress oil prices
10%
90%
Oil Reserves of Iran
Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 2
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
economic sanctions Iran, will have an
and the global economy.
the United States, has
in the city of Vienna, Austria, on
have nuclear technology
, addressed to Iran has ended.
and abilities. Iran has
Iran does not have a
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
proven by 10% of world
oil producer, Iran's oil
in world oil production. In
Eastern countries, as well
United States as the
cooperative relationship
because there will be
Organization of the Petroleum
oil prices, for the period until
Oil Reserves of Iran
Iran
Non Iran
4. Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 3
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
10 Largest Oil-Producing Countries
No Country Production Percentage
1 Rusia 544 Mt 13%
2 Saudi Arabia 520 Mt 13%
3 United States of America 387 Mt 9%
4 China 206 Mt 5%
5 Iran 186 Mt 4%
6 Canada 182 Mt 4%
7 UEA 163 Mt 4%
8 Venezuela 162 Mt 4%
9 Kuwait 152 Mt 4%
10 Iraq 148 Mt 4%
International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012
World energy prices, especially oil and gas, will continue to decline. After the United States
discovered shale gas (natural gas trapped in formations crack rocks) a few years ago, could reduce
the dependence of the United States to the countries of the Middle East for its oil and gas needs.
This of course makes the production and supply of oil and gas the Middle East countries become
redundant.
The discovery of new energy sources, and supplemented if Iran release its oil and gas production to
the global market, in accordance with the laws of market economy between the demand and supply
of oil and gas reserves, will make the price of oil and natural gas is getting down.
IV. Rejecting Saudi Arabia and Pressing to Russia
Economic deficits of Saudi Arabia
World oil prices continue to decline, will depress the economy of Saudi Arabia. 80% of Saudi Arabia's
state revenue comes from oil sales, and international oil prices continue to decline, while state
funding remains high. Even to cover the budget deficit, Saudi Arabia has to borrow money or incur
debt of $ 4 billion through the issuance of bonds in 2014 ago.
Arab government bond is the first in the last eight years, the Government of Saudi Arabia has never
issued bonds since 2007, and was an attempt to maintain the level of public spending as oil prices
continued to decline.
As previously stated Governor Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Fahad al-Mubarak, that the Saudi
government will use a combination of bond and foreign exchange reserves to maintain spending and
cover the financial deficit will be greater than expected. The country continues to hope that there is
an increase in lending for 2015 to $ 5 billion. Until the end of 2015, the state of Saudi Arabia would
have a budget deficit of 20%.
State expenditures for special projects, payment of bonuses for civil servants and military Arabia
recognized funding will increase the weight of Saudi Arabia's economy and continuing to reduce the
financial capacity of the state treasury that eventually eroded international reserves. War against
Yemen and Syria trigger an increase in the military budget from 10% to 17% of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
5. Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 4
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
To meet the needs of the planned expenditure, Saudi Arabia requires oil prices at a price of USD 105
per barrel. While the average world oil price is currently only USD 44 per barrel. If the economic
government of Saudi Arabia continues like this it will deplete reserves faster than expected.
US Energy Information Administration-2013
The discovery of new energy sources that are cheaper and the inclusion of Iran as an oil supplier
countries in the global market, making the dependence of the world oil consumer countries to be
reduced. Energy consumers who dominated countries of the west, of course, there is the possibility
of critically will see Saudi Arabia as the world democratization major obstacle, the system of
absolute monarchy is not democratic, social systems that greatly inhibit the role of women, and has
a network with radical groups. A signal to be conveyed that the western countries would dispose of
Saudi Arabia in the global political stage.
Economy Depressed of Rusia
On the other hand, as the country as a stabilizing force in the economic, political and military.
Russian state has one of the super power, including in terms of supply and energy production
capacity, either oil, gas, coal and uranium.
The lifting of economic sanctions Iran adversely affect the Russian economy, particularly the oil and
gas industry. Exports of Russian oil and natural gas to Europe which has been the backbone of the
Russian economy will experience a serious threat. Decline in world oil prices and the lifting of
economic sanctions Iran will press the Russian economy.
1%
49
%
8%
3%
13%
20%
7%
Reserves of World Oil by Region
Europe
Middle East
Africa
Asia & Oceania
North America
Central & South America
Eurasia
6. International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012
V. Competition of Islamic Regime
Middle East region is dominated Islamic countries is an area that is considered as the center of world
conflict. The high level of conflict in the Middle East countries, under certain conditions to be very
helpful (in spite of the conflict must been created inten
order to gain economic, social, political, military and ideological.
Iran as a country with a Shiite majority, agreed to have nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
The emergence of Iran as a country with
as global economic players in the field of energy, will increase the competition among Islamic
countries, which affects the power escalation of Islamic countries.
During this state supporters of
dominant to give color to the economic and political escalation in the Middle East. As the
superpower United States with a capacity of oil and gas consumption in the world, America has a
high dependence to Saudi Arabia to meet the energy needs of the country.
Not a bit of competition that led to the conflict between the Middle East countries, which are
triggered by several factors, including:
1. Boundary and occupation of territories: caused by (i)
susceptible and become a classic problem (ii) policy factors that triggered the demographic
conditions.
2. The religious and political ideology: the Middle East is the center of religious development
and has a complex repertoire in religious thought. Iraq
ideology and political competition.
3. Natural resources: the seizure of oil and natural gas resources is fairly dominant trigger for
conflict between Islamic countries Middle East. Oil
the world's oil needs. Conflicts caused by competition over oil resources, will usually trigger
a global conflict. Iraqi military aggression to Kuwait and US military aggression on Iraq, is the
embodiment of the contr
distribution.
13%
87%
Oil Production of
Rusia
Rusia Non Rusia
Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012
European oil companies,
Mediterranean market are eager to
exploration and production
Iran, and are eager to continue the
relationship there. In the short term
buy crude oil from Iran who
to the global energy market and
energy companies and Iraq.
For western countries who are consumers
energy, pressing Russia will benefit
Russian dominance over
Emergence of Iran in global
reduce Europe's dependence
energy supply of oil, and
prices.
Regime
East region is dominated Islamic countries is an area that is considered as the center of world
conflict. The high level of conflict in the Middle East countries, under certain conditions to be very
helpful (in spite of the conflict must been created intentionally or not) for hegemony in the region in
order to gain economic, social, political, military and ideological.
Iran as a country with a Shiite majority, agreed to have nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
The emergence of Iran as a country with a majority Shiite country's nuclear authorities and returned
as global economic players in the field of energy, will increase the competition among Islamic
countries, which affects the power escalation of Islamic countries.
During this state supporters of Saudi Arabia following the majority Sunni and Wahabi, more
dominant to give color to the economic and political escalation in the Middle East. As the
superpower United States with a capacity of oil and gas consumption in the world, America has a
ndence to Saudi Arabia to meet the energy needs of the country.
Not a bit of competition that led to the conflict between the Middle East countries, which are
triggered by several factors, including:
Boundary and occupation of territories: caused by (i) natural factors with desert conditions
susceptible and become a classic problem (ii) policy factors that triggered the demographic
The religious and political ideology: the Middle East is the center of religious development
pertoire in religious thought. Iraq-Iran conflict is a form of religious
ideology and political competition.
Natural resources: the seizure of oil and natural gas resources is fairly dominant trigger for
conflict between Islamic countries Middle East. Oil potential in the region reached 49% of
the world's oil needs. Conflicts caused by competition over oil resources, will usually trigger
a global conflict. Iraqi military aggression to Kuwait and US military aggression on Iraq, is the
embodiment of the control of oil resources and infrastructure as well as access to global
ion of
Non Rusia
Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 5
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
, especially in the
are eager to conduct
production in the country of
continue the business
In the short term Europe will
who have better access
and beat the Russian
who are consumers of
will benefit with reduced
over Eastern Europe.
global oil producers will
Europe's dependence on Russia for
obtain cheaper oil
East region is dominated Islamic countries is an area that is considered as the center of world
conflict. The high level of conflict in the Middle East countries, under certain conditions to be very
tionally or not) for hegemony in the region in
Iran as a country with a Shiite majority, agreed to have nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
a majority Shiite country's nuclear authorities and returned
as global economic players in the field of energy, will increase the competition among Islamic
Saudi Arabia following the majority Sunni and Wahabi, more
dominant to give color to the economic and political escalation in the Middle East. As the
superpower United States with a capacity of oil and gas consumption in the world, America has a
Not a bit of competition that led to the conflict between the Middle East countries, which are
natural factors with desert conditions
susceptible and become a classic problem (ii) policy factors that triggered the demographic
The religious and political ideology: the Middle East is the center of religious development
Iran conflict is a form of religious
Natural resources: the seizure of oil and natural gas resources is fairly dominant trigger for
potential in the region reached 49% of
the world's oil needs. Conflicts caused by competition over oil resources, will usually trigger
a global conflict. Iraqi military aggression to Kuwait and US military aggression on Iraq, is the
ol of oil resources and infrastructure as well as access to global
7. Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 6
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
VI. ISIS and the failure of Arab Spring
At the end of 2010, the Middle East region to experience the 'Arab Spring', where the political
situation of the Islamic countries which have a majority of authoritarian rulers hit by a wave of
revolution to demand leadership succession.
Protests, civil disobedience, revolution and rebellion and civil war are actions that characterize a
wave of Arab Spring in the Middle East. The phenomenon is caused by several factors, either
partially or accumulation, which are increasingly worse economic conditions, authoritarian
leadership, government corruption, human rights abuses, poverty and unemployment, as well as
sectarian.
Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Libya is an Islamic countries in the Middle East were hit by the Arab Spring
that led to the change of leadership, either constitutional or unconstitutional, even of them ended
tragically with the death is tragic.
Syria and Bahrain is a country that experienced the revolt. Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman and
Morocco to reform in the government and the country to adjust the wave of political change in the
Middle East region.
Algeria and Iraq does not escape from the rallies with almost the same purpose. Especially for the
Syrian state, the condition turns into a never-ending chaos, and even escalation of conflicts turn into
increasingly widespread.
Middle Eastern countries hit by the Arab Spring
No Country Incident Impact
1 Egypt •Demonstration,
• Civil Disobedience
•President Hoesni Mubarak on trial
• Government changed
2 Yemen •Demonstration,
• Civil Disobedience
President Ali Abdullah Saleh handed over power to
Vice President
3 Tunisia •Demonstration,
• Civil Disobedience
•President Ben Ali was overthrown
• Government changed
4 Libya •Demonstration
•Rebellion
• Civil War
•Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was shot dead
•Governments changed
5 Bahrain •Demonstration
•Rebellion
•Governments changed
6 Jordan Demonstration Government remodel
7 Kuwait Demonstration Government remodel
8 Lebanon Demonstration Government remodel
9 Oman Demonstration Changed Constitution
10 Morroco Demonstration Changed Constitution
11 Syria •Demonstration
•Rebellion
•Civil War
•The President does not change
•Government remodel
•ISIS
12 Iraq Demonstration • Government remodel
• ISIS
various sources
8. Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 7
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Action in Syria triggered by protests against the government of As'ad, but on the other hand also
appeared to support government action. The action led to armed conflict of interest groups and the
state to interfere in the armed conflict, both politically, economically and militarily. Syrian civil war
as a result of wave action.
The emergence of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syriah) in the Syrian conflict, escalation of
widespread conflict, a conflict that is increasingly a period of time, an accumulation of factors that
cause conflicts and interests of the parties involved in the conflict. Iran and Russia provide support
to the Syrian government, while the United States and Saudi Arabia are more aligned to the
opponents of the Syrian government.
No doubt some countries are drawn into the conflict, should be assumed to have a desire for control
of energy resources of oil and natural gas, including in this case, access to infrastructure and the
economy, as well as other interests such as, political, military and sectarian.
VII. Islamic Countries and Control of Nuclear
Nuclear energy is an alternative energy source that allows the realization of world energy
consumption efficiency. Nuclear energy is the primary means to reduce global warming, the use of
nuclear energy should be avoided only if it poses a threat to the life expectancy of beating the
benefits that would be given to humans. In politics, as the nuclear balance of power over the country
economically inferior to the state economically superior.
Islamic Countries which have nuclear facilities
COUNTRY UTILIZATION REMARK
PAKISTAN military 3 NPP
1000 MW
since 1972
IRAN R&D
nuclear enrichment
facility
NPP • since 2007
• believed to be able to develop a nuclear
weapon in a short time
ARAB SAUDI NPP suspected to have nuclear facilities and
nuclear weapons in secret
INDONESIA R&D 4 NPP
4000 MW
• since 1950
• Infrastructure ready
• 2014 operated
KUWAIT 4 NPP
4000 MW
• beroperasi 2022
• Cooperation with France
TURKEY 4 NPP
10000 MW
Cooperation with Korea
UEA 4 NPP
5600 MW
• Will be operated in 2017
• Investment US$ 40 billion
• Reactor PR1400
JORDAN 2 NPP
1000 MW
• since 2015
• Cooperation with : Rusia, France, Japan,
and Canada
various sources
9. Islamic Countries in Global Energy Politics 8
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Pakistan, in current de facto an Islamic state has recognized and capable of producing nuclear
weapons. Mastery recognized nuclear state Pakistan has been able to produce nuclear weapons.
In the Middle East after Iran agreed country to have nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, the
state of Saudi Arabia and Israel is suspected to have nuclear facilities and nuclear weapons in secret.
Saudi Arabia and Israel refused to be called has had a nuclear weapons facility, and Pakistan denies
helping build a nuclear facility of Saudi Arabia.
Iran even at the stage of research and development as well as a nuclear enrichment facility,
however, if it is not due to embargo that afflict this country, Iran is believed to be able to develop a
nuclear weapon in a short time.
Although it was not until the development of nuclear weapons facility, Islamic countries already
planned and has built nuclear facilities for peaceful purposes. Some of these Islamic countries in the
Middle East is oil-rich region. They have anticipated when oil resources run out and not be a source
of state revenue.
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