Bottom Line: Inflation is spreading to more items as supply can't keep up with sturdy underlying demand that's stoked by stimulative policies, forcing more companies to pass along rising costs. A combination of low base-year effects, supply-side disruptions, delivery bottlenecks, labour shortages, elevated energy and food costs, and rising residential rents could keep the CPI rate above 6% through the turn of the year, while the core rate will likely take a run at 5%. Chair Powell expects inflation to begin to retreat by the second or third quarter of next year as supply constraints abate and reopening-demand pressures fade. But it will be a long and anxious waiting period (assuming he's still Chair). And, should wage growth rise further or inflation expectations resume an upward drift, the Fed might not be able to wait that long before pulling the tightening trigger. Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/86bbbd1a-eb53-42cd-902c-a804528f193e/ 1. Food costs - https://ktvz.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2021/11/05/world-food-prices-are-up-30-in-a-year/ 2. OPEC tells Biden to pump the oil himself - https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/11/09/opec-says-to-biden-if-you-want-more-oil-pump-it-yourself/?sh=11d02fb93efd OPEC told Biden (11/9/2021) to pump more USA oil https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/oil-and-gas-energy-sector-analysis-and-commentary-october-2021-revised 3. Supply chain - https://edtechmagazine.com/higher/k12/article/2021/11/4-ways-avoid-supply-chain-delays-2022 4. Low income - https://ktvz.com/news/2021/11/10/higher-gas-prices-and-heating-costs-will-hurt-low-income-families-the-most-this-winter/ 5. Carbon tax - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/rising-gas-prices-show-why-a-carbon-tax-is-a-bad-idea 6. Housing - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/home-prices-are-now-rising-much-faster-than-incomes-studies-show.html 7. Commodity prices - https://blackbullmarkets.com/en/market-reviews/are-commodity-prices-going-up/ 8. Interest rates - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/federal-reserve-james-bullard-expects-two-rate-hikes-next-year.html 9. Green employment - https://www.aei.org/articles/will-green-energy-produce-more-jobs-three-experts-discuss/ 10. Job market - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/switching-jobs-can-lead-to-higher-pay-heres-what-to-know.html 11. China - https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/economy/china-cpi-ppi-inflation-intl-hnk/index.html

1. COST OF LIVING –
UNITED STATES –
OCTOBER 2021
Paul Young CPA CGA
November 10, 2021

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• CPI Index
• BMO – Consumer Price Index – United States
• Housing Price Index
• Gasoline Prices
• Average housing Price
• Producer Price Index
• Freight Index
• Blog – Cargo
• Blog – Supply Chain Disruption
• Blog – Stimulus and Inflation

4. THE USA – CPI INDEX
Cost of Living -
Inflation - USA - October 2021.pdf

5. BMO –
CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/86bbbd1a-
eb53-42cd-902c-a804528f193e/
U.S. CPI From Zero to
Six in 17 Months.pdf

6. HOUSING PRICE INDEX
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

7. GASOLINE
PRICES
Source -
https://ycharts.com/indicato
rs/us_gas_price

8. AVERAGE HOUSING PRICE
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

9. PRODUCE
PRICE INDEX
Source -
https://www.bls.gov/news.re
lease/ppi.nr0.htm
Producer Price Index
- USA - October 2021.pdf
BMO - Producer
Price Index - October 2021 - USA.pdf

10. FREIGHT COSTS
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU484121484121

11. CARGO
Blog - Retail Cargo Expected to Set Record in August
“Strong consumer demand has outpaced supply chain operations since late last year and could remain a challenge as the
holidays approach," Gold added. "The continuing lack of labor, equipment and capacity has highlighted systemic issues and the
need to create a truly 21st century supply chain to ensure resiliency against the next major disruption. Passage of infrastructure
legislation currently pending in Congress is a key step in that direction. We need continued focus by the administration to help
address these issues as well.”
Shipping and congestion continue to be a concern. “The strain of the continuing economic expansion is putting considerable
pressure on the logistics supply chain,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “We’re seeing a lack of
shipping capacity combined with port congestion as vessels line up to discharge goods from both Asia and Europe. Delays are
stretching to landside as port terminals struggle with space shortages, and labor challenges are affecting ports, railroads and
trucking companies alike. This part of the recovery is not a pretty sight.”
https://www.mhlnews.com/global-supply-chain/article/21171732/retail-cargo-expected-to-set-record-in-
august?utm_source=IY+IW+QM+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS210809063&o_eid=7930I4506489J2B&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5
D=omeda%7C7930I4506489J2B&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
This ties nicely into my work on United States retail sales - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-june-2021
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

12. SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_s
ource=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end
consumer. https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

13. STIMULUS AND INFLATION
COVID inflation is everywhere, but some have more of it than others. Among advanced economies, the U.S. is starting to
look like the outlier.
That’s probably because it did more fiscal stimulus in the pandemic, economists say. The consensus is that high inflation
won’t last long. But even if that’s right, the current elevated level has the potential to cause problems of its own -- for
President Joe Biden’s most ambitious economic plans at home, and for other countries too.
August data due Tuesday is set to show annual growth in U.S. consumer prices stayed above 5 per cent in August for a
third straight month, according to Bloomberg surveys. The median forecast was 5.3 per cent, down from 5.4 per cent the
previous month. Most other developed countries have seen a spike too -- just not nearly as big.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-is-starting-to-look-like-a-stimulus-led-outlier-1.1651314
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-public-sector-united-states-250175562

14. WAGES
Blog - Proportion of businesses raising pay hits 48-year high: NFIB
The proportion of small businesses that raised pay in October hit a 48-year high, with a net 44% increasing compensation
and a net 32% planning to do so in the next three months, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said
Tuesday.
Optimism among owners toward the business outlook during the next six months slumped to the lowest level since
November 2012, NFIB said, citing a survey of 1,431 small businesses. “Owners have grown pessimistic about future
economic conditions,” the federation said, noting that 49% said they could not fill job openings and all but 10% reported
disruption from supply chain bottlenecks.
“One of the biggest problems for small businesses is the lack of workers for unfilled positions and inventory shortages,
which will continue to be a problem during the holiday season,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said.
https://www.cfodive.com/news/businesses-raising-pay-hits-48-year-high-
nfib/609756/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202021-11-
10%20CFO%20Dive%20%5Bissue:37915%5D&utm_term=CFO%20Dive
Blog – Employment – United States – October 2021 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-
market-the-united-states-october-2021