Here is a look at GDP and the economy for Canada

1. CANADA – TRUTH ON GDP AND
ECONOMY
Paul Young CPA CGA
July 12, 2020

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. AGENDA
• Overall GDP
• Jobs / Canada
• Goods Producing Sector / Natural Resources
• Goods Producing Sector / Construction
• Goods Producing Sector / Manufacturing
• Energy Sector
• Green Economy / Canada
• Fiscal Management / Canada
• What’s next
• Training/education

4. OVERALL GDP
• Canada 3rd quarter GDP / 2019 –” Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3%, following a 0.9% increase in the second quarter. Third
quarter growth was led by higher business investment and increased household spending, boosting final domestic demand by 0.8%.”
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191129/dq191129a-eng.htm or Canada GDP was showing strain in January 2020 -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200331/dq200331a-eng.htm
• USA GDP was on track around 2% per quarter - https://www.bea.gov/news/glance as compare to Canada that seen GDP slow after 2017
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-slow-growth-liberal-party-of-canada-december-7-2016

5. JOB RECOVERY
– COVID19
RECESSION
• We could be heading to structural
unemployment for many years if
@JustinTrudeau and @Bill_Morneau
do not change their course with
their policies!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/labor-market-canada-june-
2020
• https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/m
onday-volunteer-grant-paid-
employment-1.5637844?cmp=rss
How about @JustinTrudeau come
with policies that are effective in
terms of job quality? Here is a look
at job quality -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoun
gcga/job-quality-canada-235057299

6. NATURAL RESOURCES
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200414/dq200414a-
eng.htm
• @SeamusORegan what good did you do for natural
resources? Did you get oil to tidewater? Did you grow the
natural resources sector? Did you support the
streamlining of regulations? Did you support tax reforms?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-natural-
resources-sector-whats-next
• More focus needs to be on supply chain including
maximizing getting goods to both domestic and
international market
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-
to-reshore-supply-chains

7. CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
1. Half of GDP growth was driven by residential and other construction (Debt Financing) -
https://cherryyeung.com/2019/12/04/over-half-of-canadas-gdp-growth-came-from-real-estate-and-construction/
2. Infrastructure “Two critical elements in analyzing infrastructure projects are often overlooked: the true cost of
capital and long-term maintenance expenses.” There is limited information available on the infrastructure
bank @cathmckenna . https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-infrastructure-analysis-of-policy I
cannot see how the infrastructure bank has helped reduce the infrastructure gap!
3. Asphalt Production
1. Canada is ranked highly with bitumen production - https://blog.asphaltkingdom.com/top-asphalt-producers
2. Iran is one of top exporters of asphalt related bitumen - https://saharabizz.com/1327-2/
3. Innovation / https://www.roadsbridges.com/how-technological-innovations-are-disrupting-asphalt-mixing-plants-
demand

8. GOODS PRODUCING SECTOR /
MANUFACTURING
• “The biggest story there was spill-overs from a U.S. auto sector strike that sent transportation equipment
manufacturing 2.5% lower, but there were additional drags,” DePratto wrote. Eight of 10 subsectors reported
lower output in October, including machinery manufacturing, fabricated metal products, and wood products, as
well as rubber and plastics products.”Source -
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadas-gdp-falls-by-0-1-in-october-statistics-
canada-244550/ or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-canadas-manufacturing-sector
• Manufacturing continues to embrace automation as part of improving productivity – Canada is still lagging
other countries - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/manufacturing-automation-facing-our-
digital-future-technology-adoption-in-canada/ or https://www.manufacturingglobal.com/technology/how-
automation-can-help-manufacturers-navigate-covid-19
PMI Index / Canada
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/manufacturing-pmi

9. ENERGY SECTOR
@gmbutts is not going to be happy with oil production being restored.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/environment-and-safety/oilsands-companies-restoring-
production-as-demand-growth-spurs-higher-prices-256659/
Canada oil is both ethical and environmentally sound - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
going-on-with-oil

10. GREEN ECONOMY
"Building a low carbon, high performance economy is a vital environmental responsibility," the letter says. "It
is also a major economic opportunity for all sectors and regions of the country.“ Source -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ankitmishra/2020/06/08/canadas-clean-energy-sector-can-help-drive-
economic-recovery-from-covid-19/#55030c321bd4 or https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/green-
economy-canada-report-ideas-1.5386486
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-green-economy-july-2020
• Green energy gets direct subsidies and grants - https://greeneconomy.ca/caif/ and https://www.sdtc.ca/en/ or
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319302117
• Green Party mixes up tax deductions as subsidies when they are not - $3.3B – Oil and Gas sector deductions
included R&D/Innovation, CCA, etc. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-design-the-best-
corporate-tax-policies
• Green technology can exist without key components - https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/23/the-raw-
materials-needed-for-the-european-green-deal/
• China indirectly or directly controls a good chunk of rare metals, vanadium, lithium, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/china-whats-next-236622252
• Green Technology companies have been losing money - https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/14/a-
closer-look-at-clean-energy-fuels-earnings.aspx or https://financialpost.com/technology/liberals-600-million-
cleantech-fund-is-losing-money-and-struggling-to-find-investments

11. FISCAL MANAGEMENT / FEDERAL
https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2020/07/08/despite-enormous-deficit-canada-will-pay-less-interest-on-
debt-this-year-than-last.html
Only because there are low-interest rates and the changes to bond yields due to bond downgrade have not materialized in
terms of the cost of borrowing!
Debt levels
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-consumer-government-and-corporate-debt-crisis
Trudeau turned $1B surplus YTD/Nov 15 to large deficits within five years. The economy was also doing poorly before
COVID19 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-fiscal-management-debt-and-deficit or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-stephen-harper-years-pm-of-canada
Canada GDP growth under Trudeau has been 0.9% (including the 2020 recession) -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-gdp-april-2020

12. WHAT’S NEXT
• Canada will need to address issues with their regulations and tax policies as part of making Canada more
competitive - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-competitiveness-analysis-of-policy
• Post-COVID will see the transformation of many sectors like hospitality, retail and transportation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/labor-market-canada-june-2020
• Canada will need to revisit its educational and training programs as part of preparing youth for jobs of today
and tomorrow - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-youth-development
• All levels of government need to work together to better support the goods producing sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-reshore-supply-chains
• All levels of government need to start addressing issues with affordable housing -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-affordability-and-costing-canada-september-2019
• All levels of government need to be restructure including more performance audits, risk and crisis management
reporting, compensation reforms, etc. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reform-local-and-
municipal-government
• Global entities like WTO need to be reformed - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-
global-trade-barriers-and-protection-wto-canada-september-2019

13. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies