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Moneyball: A Quantitative Approach to Angel Investing (Austin, TX - Aug 2012)
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups NEEDLE IN THE
HAYSTACK REAL USE CASES: SIGNS THAT A FUNDING ROUND IS ABOUT TO OCCUR AND/OR SIGNS THAT A PRODUCT IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE. VERY HARD TO DO ACCURATELY BUT PAYOFF IS BIG & FAST.
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups FASTER PORTFOLIO TRENDS
CURRENT SYSTEMS OF QUARTERLY/AD-HOC REPORTING IS BROKEN -- SELF REPORTED DATA IS OFTEN BIASED. THE RAW DATA IS THERE, THE SYSTEMS TO COLLECT IT AND THE ALGORITHMS TO ANALYZE IT ARE MISSING.
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups 500 CHECKLIST Product
solves a problem for a specific target customer Capital-efficient businesses - operational @ <$1M funding Primarily internet-based distribution - search, social, mobile, local Simple revenue models - transactions, subscriptions or affiliate Functional prototype before investment (or previous success) Small but measurable usage - some customers, early revenue Small but cross-functional team - engineer, design/UX, marketing
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups STATE OF THE
ART IN EARLY STAGE INVESTING IS NOT VERY SOPHISTICATED AT THE EARLIEST STAGE, YOU HAVE LIMITED DATA TO MAKE DECISIONS WITH -- BETTER TO LOOK FOR DEAL FLOW VIA TRUSTED REFERRALS, USE A CHECKLIST, DECIDE YES/NO QUICKLY AND KEEP LEGAL/FINANCE SIMPLE.
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups BAD BETS FAIL
FAST SMALLER CHECK SIZES FORCE COMPANIES TO PROVE THEORIES FASTER. ALLOWING INVESTORS TO QUICKLY ITERATE OUR FORECASTING/FUNDING MODEL. FEWER “LIVING DEAD” AND QUICKER RETURN ON RESULTS.
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups FAILURE RATES ARE
HIGH DIVERSITY OF HIGH VOLUME INVESTING ALLOWS FOR HIGH ERROR RATE. FUND IRR QUICKLY POSITIVE WITH SMALLER, EARLY EXITS AND PROMISING DEALS GETTING FUNDED. DILIGENCE HAPPENS IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR, NOT THE CRYSTAL BALL.
500.co/challenge #moneyball4startups BEST DEALS USUALLY
REQUIRE LIMITED BOARD SUPPORT SPEND YOUR TIME SOURCING NEW DEALS. LIMIT TIME ON SIDEWAYS DEALS. LET THE WINNERS KEEP ON WINNING (AND ANSWER YOUR PHONE WHEN THEY NEED YOU).