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VC	
  Evolu)on:	
  Geeks	
  Got	
  Next.	
  
    (aka	
  “So(ware	
  Eats	
  Venture	
  Capital”)	
  




                    @DaveMcClure	
  @500Startups	
  
                    @DigitalOctober	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Event	
  	
  
                           (Moscow,	
  Sept	
  2012)	
  
Shit	
  I’m	
  Gonna	
  Talk	
  About	
  
                              Pro	
  Tip:	
  Leave	
  Now	
  B4	
  This	
  Gets	
  Ugly	
  
•    500	
  Startups:	
  Dude.	
  Srsly.	
  Like,	
  WTF?	
  
•    Angel	
  List:	
  Use	
  It,	
  You	
  Fucking	
  Idiot.	
  
•    Making	
  Venture	
  Work	
  BeJer	
  (This	
  is	
  Easy)	
  
      –    MoneyBall	
  4	
  Startups	
  
      –    Startups	
  #FAIL	
  &	
  VCs	
  #SUCK.	
  
      –    Early	
  Stage	
  InvesRng	
  =	
  Risk	
  ReducRon	
  
      –    Your	
  Diligence	
  Is	
  an	
  Illusion	
  
      –    Guild	
  of	
  Geeks	
  /	
  Mentor	
  Network	
  
•    Making	
  Incubators	
  Work	
  BeJer	
  (This	
  is	
  Hard)	
  
      –    It	
  Takes	
  A	
  Village:	
  Mentors,	
  Advisors,	
  Investors	
  
      –    EducaRon	
  &	
  Community	
  
      –    Outlier	
  CompeRRon	
  &	
  Success	
  Behavior	
  Modeling	
  
      –    Product,	
  Market,	
  Revenue,	
  Pitch	
  
      –    Customer	
  AcquisiRon,	
  Growth	
  Hacking,	
  &	
  Pla]orm	
  DistribuRon	
  
      –    Winners	
  Win,	
  Losers	
  Lose,	
  Tweeners	
  Tween	
  
•    Scaling	
  VC	
  
•    Going	
  Intl	
  
Dave McClure
                        Founding Partner & Sith Lord, 500 Startups




00’s & 10’s:
•  Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
•  Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid
•  Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media
•  Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook

80’s & 90’s:
•  Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d)
•  Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
•  Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups: SRSLY, WTF?
            Mountain View, CA – Founded 2010
•  Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
   –    10,000 sq ft / Silicon Valley HQ
   –    15 people / 8 investing partners
   –    Design, Distribution, Data
   –    US, Brazil, Mexico, India (+ more)
   –    600 Founders / 180+ Mentors
•  375+ Portfolio Co’s / 20+ Countries
   –    Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)
   –    Twilio
   –    SendGrid
   –    TaskRabbit
   –    MakerBot
   –    9GAG 
Angel	
  List*:	
  It	
  Fucking	
  Rocks.	
  
       (Use	
  it,	
  You	
  *&#%	
  Idiot)	
  




                     •  Startups	
  &	
  Investors	
  
                     •  Ac)vity	
  &	
  Metrics	
  
                     •  PlaTorm	
  &	
  APIs	
  

                     •    *ps	
  –	
  it’s	
  not	
  just	
  for	
  Angels,	
  US	
  
Making	
  Venture	
  Capital	
  	
  
     Work	
  BeJer	
  
   This	
  is	
  Actually	
  Pre^y	
  Easy,	
  	
  
     Since	
  Most	
  VCs	
  /	
  Funds	
  
                  Suck	
  Balls.	
  
MoneyBall	
  4	
  Startups	
  




                      h^p://slideshare.net/paulsingh/	
  
moneyball-­‐a-­‐quanRtaRve-­‐approach-­‐to-­‐angel-­‐invesRng-­‐ausRn-­‐tx-­‐aug-­‐2012	
  


      1.  Make	
  Lots	
  Of	
  LiJle	
  Bets	
  
      2.  Count	
  Cards	
  (Monitor	
  Progress	
  &	
  Stats)	
  
      3.  Double	
  Down	
  on	
  Winners	
  
Startups	
  #FAIL	
  &	
  VCs	
  #SUCK.	
  
                        But	
  You	
  Knew	
  That	
  Already	
  
•    Play	
  Blackjack,	
  Not	
  RouleJe.	
  (Count	
  Cards.	
  Make	
  Lots	
  of	
  Li^le	
  Bets.)	
  
•    Don’t	
  Be	
  An	
  Arrogant,	
  Insufferable	
  Prick.	
  
•    Don’t	
  Assume	
  Your	
  Diligence	
  is	
  4	
  Shit.	
  
•    Don’t	
  Assume	
  You.	
  or	
  They	
  are	
  Smart.	
  
•    Build	
  a	
  Fucking	
  Brand	
  That	
  MaJers.	
  
•    Increase	
  Sample	
  Size.	
  
•    Don’t	
  Make	
  Big	
  Bets	
  Too	
  Early.	
  
•    Simplify	
  Revenue	
  Model.	
  (as	
  in:	
  HAVE	
  ONE,	
  you	
  fucking	
  idiot)	
  
•    Bet	
  on	
  Hackers,	
  Hustlers,	
  Designers.	
  
•    Create	
  a	
  Community.	
  	
  
•    Invest	
  afer	
  they	
  have	
  a	
  funcRonal	
  prototype.	
  
•    Be	
  early	
  and	
  contrarian,	
  or	
  late	
  and	
  right.	
  
•    Use	
  The	
  Tools	
  (you	
  fucking	
  idiot):	
  Twi^er,	
  Facebook,	
  Quora,	
  Instagram,	
  Pinterest,	
  etc	
  
•    Talk	
  /	
  Blog	
  /	
  Present	
  about	
  something	
  u	
  know	
  about,	
  care	
  about.	
  
•    Admit	
  Your	
  Faults	
  Frequently.	
  
•    Laugh	
  a	
  li^le	
  bit.	
  (at	
  yourself,	
  not	
  others).	
  
•    Don’t	
  worry	
  too	
  much	
  about	
  legal	
  structure.	
  
•    Worry	
  a	
  SHIT	
  TON	
  about	
  valua)on.	
  (because	
  your	
  exits	
  will	
  be	
  SMALL)	
  
Bet	
  on	
  Singles,	
  Not	
  HomeRuns.	
  
     (Look	
  for	
  Ichiros,	
  Not	
  Barry	
  Bonds)	
  
Early-­‐Stage	
  Risk	
  Reduc)on	
  
•    Intro:	
  Crazy,	
  Liars	
  or	
  crooks?	
  Fucking	
  idiots?	
  
•    Product:	
  does	
  it	
  work?	
  (crappy,	
  not	
  perfect)	
  
•    Market:	
  are	
  people	
  using	
  it?	
  (not	
  their	
  mom)	
  
•    Revenue:	
  will	
  people	
  pay	
  for	
  it?	
  (just	
  a	
  few)	
  
•    Growth:	
  how	
  will	
  it/they	
  scale?	
  
•    Finance:	
  what	
  will	
  it	
  cost	
  
      –  Q1:	
  cost	
  to	
  get	
  a	
  customer?	
  	
  
      –  Q2:	
  how	
  &	
  when	
  do	
  you	
  make	
  money?	
  
Your	
  [up-­‐front]	
  Diligence	
  Is	
  An	
  Illusion	
  
              (Real	
  Diligence	
  =	
  Quick	
  Check	
  +	
  3-­‐6	
  mo’s)	
  
•  You	
  Might	
  Be	
  Able	
  to	
  Detect	
  Idiots	
  &	
  Assholes.	
  
•  You	
  Probably	
  Can’t	
  Figure	
  Out	
  Winners	
  (Yet).	
  
•  Your	
  Network	
  is	
  Be^er	
  Than	
  Your	
  Homework.	
  

•  Trusted	
  Referrals	
  >>	
  Diligence	
  
•  FuncRonal	
  Prototype	
  >>	
  Team.	
  
•  Customers/Revenue	
  >>	
  Market.	
  

•  You’ll	
  Be	
  Wrong	
  4x	
  out	
  of	
  5x.	
  (If	
  U	
  Don’t	
  Suck).	
  
•  In	
  6	
  Months,	
  You’ll	
  Know	
  If	
  They	
  Don’t	
  Suck.	
  
•  In	
  1-­‐2	
  Years,	
  You’ll	
  Know	
  If	
  They’re	
  Awesome.	
  
TIRED:	
  White	
  Guys	
  in	
  Khakis	
  &	
  Blue	
  Shirts.	
  
WIRED:	
  Guild	
  of	
  Geeks.	
  Mentors.	
  YC,	
  500.	
  
Making	
  Incubators	
  	
  
  Work	
  BeJer	
  
           	
  
 (This	
  is	
  Actually	
  Pre^y	
  HARD.)	
  
                 Find	
  &	
  Fund	
  PotenRal.	
  	
  
                  Help	
  Them	
  Improve.	
  
            Educa)on	
  &	
  Community.	
  
                   Access	
  to	
  Mentors.	
  
                  Access	
  to	
  Investors.	
  
If	
  You’re	
  Lucky,	
  Discover	
  [a	
  few]	
  Winners.	
  
It	
  Takes	
  A	
  Village	
  
•    Physical	
  Space.	
  
•    People	
  =	
  Tribe.	
  
•    Mentors	
  (Advise	
  1st,	
  Invest	
  2nd)	
  
•    Events,	
  Foods,	
  Awesome.	
  
•    This	
  is	
  YOUR	
  FAMILY.	
  Make	
  Them	
  AWESOME.	
  
•    This	
  is	
  also	
  YOUR	
  BRAND.	
  So	
  Don’t	
  SUCK.	
  
•    Make	
  a	
  Big	
  Tent.	
  (Collaborate,	
  don’t	
  Compete).	
  
EducaRon	
  &	
  Community	
  
•    Mentors,	
  Investors	
  
•    Design,	
  Data,	
  DistribuRon	
  
•    Pla]orm	
  Partners	
  
•    Sponsors	
  &	
  Strategics	
  
•    MarkeRng	
  &	
  Visibility	
  
Outlier	
  CompeRRon	
  +	
  	
  
            Modeling	
  Success	
  Behaviors	
  
•    You	
  want	
  min	
  3-­‐5	
  “rockstars”	
  to	
  compete	
  
•    Rockstars	
  to	
  model	
  success	
  for	
  others	
  
•    You	
  can’t	
  assume	
  >20%	
  rockstars	
  
•    Therefore,	
  pick	
  5x5	
  =	
  25	
  teams	
  
•    3-­‐5	
  rockstar	
  teams	
  emerge,	
  compete,	
  win	
  
•    5-­‐10	
  *other*	
  non-­‐rockstars	
  learn	
  
•    Prune	
  losers	
  quickly	
  
Product,	
  Market,	
  Revenue	
  
•  Product:	
  assess	
  funcRonal	
  use,	
  improve	
  design/UX	
  
•  Market:	
  test	
  usage,	
  distribuRon	
  channels	
  
•  Revenue:	
  test	
  cust	
  acq	
  cost,	
  revenue,	
  *Rming*	
  

•  Work	
  on	
  Pitch,	
  Help	
  Find	
  Co-­‐Investors,	
  etc	
  
Hacker,	
  Hustler,	
  Hipster	
  
•  Hacker:	
  engineers	
  &	
  developers	
  
•  Hipster:	
  design	
  &	
  UX	
  
•  Hustler:	
  markeRng	
  &	
  business	
  

1.  Build	
  funcRonal	
  prototypes	
  
2.  Improve	
  UX	
  so	
  people	
  convert	
  
3.  Scale	
  customer	
  acq	
  &	
  distribuRon	
  
Winners,	
  Losers,	
  Tweeners	
  
•  Winners	
  #WIN	
  (with	
  or	
  without	
  you)	
  
•  Losers	
  #LOSE	
  (with	
  or	
  without	
  you)	
  
•  Tweeners	
  #TWEEN	
  
   –  They	
  might	
  win	
  with	
  your	
  help	
  
   –  They	
  might	
  lose	
  with	
  your	
  help	
  
   –  Be	
  helpful,	
  but	
  don’t	
  dally	
  

   –  Note:	
  you	
  might	
  be	
  wrong	
  about	
  the	
  losers	
  &	
  
      tweeners,	
  so	
  don’t	
  be	
  a	
  fucking	
  arrogant	
  asshole.	
  
Scaling	
  VC	
  
•  VC	
  is	
  an	
  immature	
  &	
  fragmented	
  market	
  
•  It’s	
  Ripe	
  for	
  DisrupRon	
  
•  It	
  Hasn’t	
  Scaled	
  (Yet)	
  
Going	
  InternaRonal	
  
•  Brazil,	
  Mexico,	
  India	
  
•  Canada,	
  UK,	
  Japan	
  
•  China,	
  Indonesia,	
  Russia,	
  Turkey	
  

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VC Evolution: Geeks Got Next

  • 1. VC  Evolu)on:  Geeks  Got  Next.   (aka  “So(ware  Eats  Venture  Capital”)   @DaveMcClure  @500Startups   @DigitalOctober  Landing  Page  Event     (Moscow,  Sept  2012)  
  • 2. Shit  I’m  Gonna  Talk  About   Pro  Tip:  Leave  Now  B4  This  Gets  Ugly   •  500  Startups:  Dude.  Srsly.  Like,  WTF?   •  Angel  List:  Use  It,  You  Fucking  Idiot.   •  Making  Venture  Work  BeJer  (This  is  Easy)   –  MoneyBall  4  Startups   –  Startups  #FAIL  &  VCs  #SUCK.   –  Early  Stage  InvesRng  =  Risk  ReducRon   –  Your  Diligence  Is  an  Illusion   –  Guild  of  Geeks  /  Mentor  Network   •  Making  Incubators  Work  BeJer  (This  is  Hard)   –  It  Takes  A  Village:  Mentors,  Advisors,  Investors   –  EducaRon  &  Community   –  Outlier  CompeRRon  &  Success  Behavior  Modeling   –  Product,  Market,  Revenue,  Pitch   –  Customer  AcquisiRon,  Growth  Hacking,  &  Pla]orm  DistribuRon   –  Winners  Win,  Losers  Lose,  Tweeners  Tween   •  Scaling  VC   •  Going  Intl  
  • 3. Dave McClure Founding Partner & Sith Lord, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: •  Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups •  Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid •  Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media •  Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook 80’s & 90’s: •  Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d) •  Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) •  Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 4. 500 Startups: SRSLY, WTF? Mountain View, CA – Founded 2010 •  Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator –  10,000 sq ft / Silicon Valley HQ –  15 people / 8 investing partners –  Design, Distribution, Data –  US, Brazil, Mexico, India (+ more) –  600 Founders / 180+ Mentors •  375+ Portfolio Co’s / 20+ Countries –  Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) –  Twilio –  SendGrid –  TaskRabbit –  MakerBot –  9GAG 
  • 5. Angel  List*:  It  Fucking  Rocks.   (Use  it,  You  *&#%  Idiot)   •  Startups  &  Investors   •  Ac)vity  &  Metrics   •  PlaTorm  &  APIs   •  *ps  –  it’s  not  just  for  Angels,  US  
  • 6. Making  Venture  Capital     Work  BeJer   This  is  Actually  Pre^y  Easy,     Since  Most  VCs  /  Funds   Suck  Balls.  
  • 7. MoneyBall  4  Startups   h^p://slideshare.net/paulsingh/   moneyball-­‐a-­‐quanRtaRve-­‐approach-­‐to-­‐angel-­‐invesRng-­‐ausRn-­‐tx-­‐aug-­‐2012   1.  Make  Lots  Of  LiJle  Bets   2.  Count  Cards  (Monitor  Progress  &  Stats)   3.  Double  Down  on  Winners  
  • 8. Startups  #FAIL  &  VCs  #SUCK.   But  You  Knew  That  Already   •  Play  Blackjack,  Not  RouleJe.  (Count  Cards.  Make  Lots  of  Li^le  Bets.)   •  Don’t  Be  An  Arrogant,  Insufferable  Prick.   •  Don’t  Assume  Your  Diligence  is  4  Shit.   •  Don’t  Assume  You.  or  They  are  Smart.   •  Build  a  Fucking  Brand  That  MaJers.   •  Increase  Sample  Size.   •  Don’t  Make  Big  Bets  Too  Early.   •  Simplify  Revenue  Model.  (as  in:  HAVE  ONE,  you  fucking  idiot)   •  Bet  on  Hackers,  Hustlers,  Designers.   •  Create  a  Community.     •  Invest  afer  they  have  a  funcRonal  prototype.   •  Be  early  and  contrarian,  or  late  and  right.   •  Use  The  Tools  (you  fucking  idiot):  Twi^er,  Facebook,  Quora,  Instagram,  Pinterest,  etc   •  Talk  /  Blog  /  Present  about  something  u  know  about,  care  about.   •  Admit  Your  Faults  Frequently.   •  Laugh  a  li^le  bit.  (at  yourself,  not  others).   •  Don’t  worry  too  much  about  legal  structure.   •  Worry  a  SHIT  TON  about  valua)on.  (because  your  exits  will  be  SMALL)  
  • 9. Bet  on  Singles,  Not  HomeRuns.   (Look  for  Ichiros,  Not  Barry  Bonds)  
  • 10. Early-­‐Stage  Risk  Reduc)on   •  Intro:  Crazy,  Liars  or  crooks?  Fucking  idiots?   •  Product:  does  it  work?  (crappy,  not  perfect)   •  Market:  are  people  using  it?  (not  their  mom)   •  Revenue:  will  people  pay  for  it?  (just  a  few)   •  Growth:  how  will  it/they  scale?   •  Finance:  what  will  it  cost   –  Q1:  cost  to  get  a  customer?     –  Q2:  how  &  when  do  you  make  money?  
  • 11. Your  [up-­‐front]  Diligence  Is  An  Illusion   (Real  Diligence  =  Quick  Check  +  3-­‐6  mo’s)   •  You  Might  Be  Able  to  Detect  Idiots  &  Assholes.   •  You  Probably  Can’t  Figure  Out  Winners  (Yet).   •  Your  Network  is  Be^er  Than  Your  Homework.   •  Trusted  Referrals  >>  Diligence   •  FuncRonal  Prototype  >>  Team.   •  Customers/Revenue  >>  Market.   •  You’ll  Be  Wrong  4x  out  of  5x.  (If  U  Don’t  Suck).   •  In  6  Months,  You’ll  Know  If  They  Don’t  Suck.   •  In  1-­‐2  Years,  You’ll  Know  If  They’re  Awesome.  
  • 12. TIRED:  White  Guys  in  Khakis  &  Blue  Shirts.   WIRED:  Guild  of  Geeks.  Mentors.  YC,  500.  
  • 13. Making  Incubators     Work  BeJer     (This  is  Actually  Pre^y  HARD.)   Find  &  Fund  PotenRal.     Help  Them  Improve.   Educa)on  &  Community.   Access  to  Mentors.   Access  to  Investors.   If  You’re  Lucky,  Discover  [a  few]  Winners.  
  • 14. It  Takes  A  Village   •  Physical  Space.   •  People  =  Tribe.   •  Mentors  (Advise  1st,  Invest  2nd)   •  Events,  Foods,  Awesome.   •  This  is  YOUR  FAMILY.  Make  Them  AWESOME.   •  This  is  also  YOUR  BRAND.  So  Don’t  SUCK.   •  Make  a  Big  Tent.  (Collaborate,  don’t  Compete).  
  • 15. EducaRon  &  Community   •  Mentors,  Investors   •  Design,  Data,  DistribuRon   •  Pla]orm  Partners   •  Sponsors  &  Strategics   •  MarkeRng  &  Visibility  
  • 16. Outlier  CompeRRon  +     Modeling  Success  Behaviors   •  You  want  min  3-­‐5  “rockstars”  to  compete   •  Rockstars  to  model  success  for  others   •  You  can’t  assume  >20%  rockstars   •  Therefore,  pick  5x5  =  25  teams   •  3-­‐5  rockstar  teams  emerge,  compete,  win   •  5-­‐10  *other*  non-­‐rockstars  learn   •  Prune  losers  quickly  
  • 17. Product,  Market,  Revenue   •  Product:  assess  funcRonal  use,  improve  design/UX   •  Market:  test  usage,  distribuRon  channels   •  Revenue:  test  cust  acq  cost,  revenue,  *Rming*   •  Work  on  Pitch,  Help  Find  Co-­‐Investors,  etc  
  • 18. Hacker,  Hustler,  Hipster   •  Hacker:  engineers  &  developers   •  Hipster:  design  &  UX   •  Hustler:  markeRng  &  business   1.  Build  funcRonal  prototypes   2.  Improve  UX  so  people  convert   3.  Scale  customer  acq  &  distribuRon  
  • 19. Winners,  Losers,  Tweeners   •  Winners  #WIN  (with  or  without  you)   •  Losers  #LOSE  (with  or  without  you)   •  Tweeners  #TWEEN   –  They  might  win  with  your  help   –  They  might  lose  with  your  help   –  Be  helpful,  but  don’t  dally   –  Note:  you  might  be  wrong  about  the  losers  &   tweeners,  so  don’t  be  a  fucking  arrogant  asshole.  
  • 20. Scaling  VC   •  VC  is  an  immature  &  fragmented  market   •  It’s  Ripe  for  DisrupRon   •  It  Hasn’t  Scaled  (Yet)  
  • 21. Going  InternaRonal   •  Brazil,  Mexico,  India   •  Canada,  UK,  Japan   •  China,  Indonesia,  Russia,  Turkey