More Related Content
Similar to Welcome to the anthropocene: geology of humanity (adapted for web 6 Dec 2012) (20)
More from Owen Gaffney (15)
Welcome to the anthropocene: geology of humanity (adapted for web 6 Dec 2012)
- 1. WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE
The geolog y of humanity
ICT for Life Sciences Forum
MELBOURNE, 6 DECEMBER 2012 OWEN GAFFNEY
Adapted for the web 7 December 2012 Director of Communications
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Image: Globaia
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 2. ANTHROPOCENE
• Earth is moving out of its current
geological epoch, the Holocene
• Humanity is largely responsible for this exit
• Humanity has become a global geological
force – since the 1950s
• Adapt our worldviews accordingly
The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives. Phil Trans A Steffen et al 2011
2012 © Owen Gaffney Image: NASA, released 5 Dec 2012
- 3. Insert data visualization from
Anthropocene.info
Welcome to the Anthropocene
http://vimeo.com/39048998
2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Globaia/IGBP
- 4. www.anthropocene.info
The world’s first website dedicated to the concept of the
Anthropocene
2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Globaia/IGBP/CSIRO/Stockholm Resilience Centre
- 7. Population
US
Bureau
of
the
Census
(2000)
Interna5onal
database
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 8. Total real GDP
Nordhaus
(1997)
The
economics
of
new
goods.
University
of
Chicago
Press
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 9. Foreign direct investment
World
Bank
(2002)
data
and
sta5s5cs
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 10. Damming of rivers
World
Commission
on
Dams
(2000)
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 11. Water use
Shiklomanov
(1990)
Global
Water
Resources
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 12. Fertiliser consumption
Interna5onal
Fer5lizer
Industry
Associa5on
(2002)
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 13. Urban population
The
State
of
the
World’s
Ci5es
(2001)
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 14. Paper consumption
Pulp
and
paper
interna5onal
(1993)
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 15. Motor vehicles
Global
environmental
outlook
(2000)
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 16. Telephones
Canning
(2001)
A
database
of
world
infrastructure
stocks,
1950-‐95
World
Bank
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 17. International tourism
World
Tourism
Organiza5on
(2001)
Tourism
industry
trends
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 18. Fisheries exploitation
Percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfished or collapsed. Source:
FAOSTAT (2002) Statistical databases
2012 © Owen Gaffney IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 19. Shrimp farm production
IAnnual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration. Sources: WRI
(2003) A guide to world resources, 2002-2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 20. Domesticated land
Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997)
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands
2012 © Owen Gaffney IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 22. Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Etheridge
et
al.
Geophys
Res
101:
4115-‐4128
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 23. Atmospheric N2O concentration
Machida
et
al
Geophys
Res
Le
22:2921-‐2925
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 24. Atmospheric CH4 concentration
Blunier
et
al
J
Geophy
Res
20:
2219-‐2222
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 25. Northern hemisphere average surface
temperature
Mann
et
al
Geophys
Res
Le
26(6):
759-‐762
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 26. Ozone depletion
percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, using the average annual total
column ozone, 330, as a base. Image: J.D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey
2012 © Owen Gaffney IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 27. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and
Southeast Asia. Sources: Richards (1990) In: The Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge
2012 © Owen Gaffney University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 28. Natural climatic disasters
Decadal frequency of great floods (one-in-100-year events) after 1860 for basins larger than 200 000 km2 with
observations that span at least 30 years. Source: Milly et al. (2002) Nature 415:514-517 IGBP synthesis:
2012 © Owen Gaffney Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 29. Coastal zone nitrogen flux
Model-calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coastal
margin for the period since 1850. Source: Mackenzie et al. (2002) Chem. Geology 190:13-32
2012 © Owen Gaffney IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
- 30. Biodiversity loss
Mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Source: Wilson (1992) The diversity of life, the Penguin Press.
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 31. Great acceleration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 32. Great Acceleration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 33. “Our
foot
is
stuck
on
the
ACCELERATOR
and
we
are
heading
towards
an
ABYSS.”
UN
Secretary
General
Ban
Ki-‐Moon,
2009
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 34. This is our life support system
Water Atmosphere
2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Adam Nieman
- 35. Does Earth have a pulse?
2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Tomas Oneborg / SvD / SCANPIX
- 36. Modern humans appear in Africa
Carbon
dioxide
Temperature
Methane
Adapted by IGBP from:
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
- 37. Beyond natural boundaries
Adapted by IGBP from:
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
- 39. 2011-2012 Fossil and Cement Emissions
• Projection for, 58% over 1990
• Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard
deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
• Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 40. 2012 Global Carbon Budget
30
RCP8.5
Historical
4.0−6.1°C
2012 Estimate
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Fossil-fuel, cement production, and gas flaring emissions (PgC/yr)
25 RCP6 RCP3-PD
Historical uncertainty
Earlier scenarios
20
15
RCP6
2.6−3.7°C
10
5 RCP4.5
2.0−3.0°C
RCP3-PD: 1.3−1.9°C
0
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Peters GP, Global Carbon Project 2012, Nature Climate Change
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 44. Pearl River Delta, China
24 OF 33 MAJOR DELTAS ARE SINKING
500 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE ON DELTAS
85% HIT BY SEVERE FLOODING RECENTLY
Parts of Jakarta have sunk 4 metres since 1974
2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: NASA LandSat Syvitski 2009, Nature Geoscience
- 49. “WE WILL BUILD MORE
URBAN AREAS
IN THE 1ST 3 DECADES
OF THE 21ST CENTURY
THAN ALL OF HISTORY
COMBINED.”
PROFESSOR KAREN SETO, YALE
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 51. We use an area the size of South America to grow our crops
And an area the size of Africa for our livestock.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Ellis 2010
- 52. 90%
of
total
mammalian
biomass
…
up
from
is
made
up
of
0.1%
10,000
humans
and
years
ago…
domesNcated
animals.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Science, 7 Oct 2011
- 54. Paul Crutzen
Nobel laureate
Former IGBP Vice
Chair
Geo
log
y of
ma
Pau
F
l J.
C ru
nkin
or th tze
n
of h e past
um thr
d
pog have es ans on ee centu
enic cala
clim em ted. the glo ries, th refe
natu ate m issions Becaus bal env e effec in ring
r
a o ir
com ral beh y dep f carbo e of thes onme ts th 1926, to the
term e. It se aviour art sig n dioxid e anthr t dir incre V. I. “anthro
n e The con
cep
way ‘Anth ems for
ma
nific
antl
e, glo o-
mu
ectio asing Vern p
ads ozoic Anth
ropo
s r ap b n in im
sup huma opocen propria ny mil y fro al co st pro which pact o ky ack era”. A
p n m ns ce
perio lemen -domine’ to the te to a lennia f no
c en
th n The
ting hav ciousn ed, nam e proc mankin wledge d A
Anth d of ated prese ssign to in e e hav nthropo
th the
t
,g
e
nt,
whe e latter ne cou 10–12 ne — al epoc y ‘w rnadsky gs.” T greate ught,
th
in th ropoce e pas Holoc eologic in man e Ve round ater an d tho wards f evoluti he
sur g gre ss an ely to sses o d: “T d
in d incr on cen
e sta ert
tury ed in th could
cen
e
ld th o r a eas , wh b
shown analy part o be sa millen e war h, ro rld of used th eilhard influen nd fo ing in p
olar en a e late e e said
ed ses f the id to nia. m le o thou e ter de ce o rms ice naly ighte to
con
centr the be of air eighte have s The own f hum ght’ m ‘n Cha n th grow sho ses enth
— o rd eir in
meth atio ginn trapp enth tarted T
futu a
re an n brain to ma öspher in and carb g glob wed th of air tr
with ane. T ns of ing of ed in centur num he rap d env -pow rk the e’ — th on d al c
onc e be app
h
in 1 James is date carbo growin polar ic y, Ea bers id e iron e ioxid ginn ed
784 Watt a n e rth a xp men r in sh growin e ozo e an entrati ing
M . ’s de lso hap diox g globa Dur ’s res nd per ansion t. apin
g its
g n
g e n e - de s t dm o
etha ns of
of
envir ankin sign p id l
onm d’s g of th ens to c e and pop ing the ources capita of ma s
If it have b oying
r ne.
187 e ste oinc ulati past h e nkin e p
3 en row am e ide than on thr as co xploit d in chemhad tu en stud roperti
Stop , when t was r ing in ngin lion 6 billio has inc ee centu ntinue ation r
wo ically ned o ied sin es of
e
whic pani sp the Ita cogniz fluence e
ing in this n and is reased ries, th d apac f ro uld by like b ut that ce the the ha
o
com h in p oke ab lian g ed as lo on th c
Abo attle po century expecte tenfold e huma e. of nd ph then h romin chlorin id-19 lo-
u m
pare o ou eo n e e 7
d to wer an t a “ne logist g ago a is ut 30 pulati . The d to r to m n by the An enome ave be , the o e beha 0s.
the d un w tell Anton s d exploit –50% o on has metha each 10 ore w ta no en z ve
grea ivers uric io isap ed b f th rise n e-p bil- not isdom rctic sp n, no a glo one ho d
diox pear a y hum e plan n to 1 rodu de v , b
ter a
forc lity ma force elop this ca ring. M t just al, yea le
es o
f ea be
y exti ide an t a fast ans. Tr et’s lan .4 billio c- m Unless . tast o a
rop re by lu n even -
r
n o e
rth,” sion ction. d stron pace, pical r d surfa n. de teorite there is hic
situ ck tha t
r a c
half have be Dam b gly in eleasin infores e en mic — impac a glob atio
n didn
man of a
ll a
com uild
e co ing
crea
sing
g ca
r bo
ts viro
nm man t, a w al cata
da kin or st
of th kind. F ccessib mmon and riv specie n en unting ental fo d wil ld war rophe —
le l
ocea e primisheries fresh place. M er dive s m gineers task lie rce for remain or a p a
e m
con n regio ary p remov water is ore tha r- th ntally to guid s ahead any m a m an-
ti r e e e a
16-fo nental ns and oducti more used b n re era o sustain societ for scie illennia jor
o th q a y
caus ld du shelf. 35% in n in u an 25 y sc uire ap f the ble ma towar ntists . A
% ale An ds an
sulp ing 160 ring thEnergy the te pwellin p
acce s, and ropriate thropo agemen enviro d
n
hur milli e tw use mpe g pted may cene t du n-
than dio on e ha ra jec , w hu m . r
Mor twice thxide em tonne ntieth s grow te th ts, for large-s ell invo an beha This ing
is in c w
agric e nitr e sum ission s of atm centur n tre stage stance ale geo lve inte viour a ill
o s r
terr ulture gen fe of its n per y ospher y, Pa ading o , howe to ‘op -engine nation t all
e e ti
ucti strial than is rtilizer atural e ar, mo ic Ch l J. Crut n terra ver, w mize’ ering p ally
u
o e i e c
biom n by cosyste fixed is ap mission re Ge emistry, en is at t ncognit are s limate ro-
z
th till .
Foss ass als e bur ms; nit natura plied s. Oc rmany, a O Box 3 e Max P a.
P h
il-fu ning lly in larg At
c a us oo ric in
eano nd t
he
060, lanc ely
v
ed s el burn errides of fos oxide p all
grap D k
San
D hy, U Scripps -55020 Institut
trati ub s ing natu sil fu rod- Cali iego, 95 nive Inst Mai e fo r ■
diox ons of tantial and forn 0 rs it u nz
a
r al
e
el a
n ia 92 0 Gillm ity of Ca tion of ,
100 ide by ‘greenh increas gricult mission d F 093- a
7452 n Drive fornia,
li
% — 30% ou es in ure s. URT , US , La
the
past reach and m se’ gase the co have
H Jolla
Mars ER RE A. ,
400 ing etha s — ncen h, G ADIN
S Ea . P. G
cau o far, millenn their h ne by m carbo - C rth as M Man and
s th ig
tion ed by o ese e ia, with hest le ore tha n C mbridge dified by Nature (1
a o
ff
acid . The co nly 25 ects h more to vels ov n (R tzen, P. , Massach Human A 864). (Re
ru
% a e
and precip nseque of th ve larg follow r S oyal Swe . & Stoermusetts, 1 ction (Belk printed a
J
the climate itation nces ar e world ely bee . C ckholm dish Acad er, E. F. 65)).
to 9 nap sT
la , Pres he
tal P test es warmin photo e, amon popula n D rk, W. C. 2000). emy of S IGBP New
la , s,
Earth l oan e tim g. H chem g oth - evelo &M cien
ces, sletter 4
a (Cam pment unn, R.
n C tes by th ence, ical ‘s ers, 1
centu will w lim a m b of
Vern ridge U the Bio (eds) S
E.
ry arm ate C e Interg ccordin og’ niv. u
M . by 1 hang over g to
a
ann dski, V. Pres sphere C stainab
the any to .4–5 e n ota I. T s, C h. le
.8 °C (IPCC men- (Spri ted vers he Bios ambrid 1
toxic environ xic sub
NAT
URE ), th nge ion fr phere ge,
| VOL du r Turn r, (tran 1986).
415 da m at a ment, stance ing e er, B New Yo om the slate
| 3 JA
NUA agin ll but even s are this Acti . rk
on (C L. et al. , 1998). riginal o d and
o
RY 2 fluo ge ne so rele McN amb Th f 19
002
| ww ‘ozo rocarbo ffects, verthele me tha ased in e
Envir ill, J. R.
ridg e Earth
e Un
26)
fo to iv. P as Tran
Thin ne hole ns tha r exam ss have t are n
w.n So
ature o
ot (W. W nmenta methin ress, C sforme
.com gs co ’ (and t cau ple s
the everely . l g amb d
uld w s Hou Norton History New Un ridg by Hum
hav hich a ed the
2012 © Owen Gaffney
chlo ghto , Ne of th der e an
e be n, wY eT the , 1990
com re now Antar ro- C he Scienti J. T. et al. ork, 200 wentieth Sun: An ).
T
©2
e mu regu cti am fic (e 0). -Cen
ch w lated c Berg bridge, 2 Basis (C ds) Clima
002
Mac tury
mil
la o ). e 0 am te Wor
- 55. 2000. IGBP Scientific Committee meeting, Cuernavaca, Mexico
“Stop
using
the
word
Holocene.
We’re
not
in
the
Holocene
any
more.
We’re
in
the…the…
...ANTHROPOCENE”
“It
was
quiet
in
the
room
for
a
while.”
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 56. 1992: New York Times journalist Andrew Revkin’s book - Global
Change mentions the Anthrocene
“We
are
entering
an
age
that
might
someday
be
referred
to
as,
say,
the
Anthrocene
[sic].
AYer
all,
it
is
a
geological
age
of
our
own
making.”
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 57. 1989: U.S writer and activist Bill McKibben publishes the End of Nature
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 58. 1980s: U.S. biologist Eugene Stoermer’s
(1934-2012) lectures mention the Anthropocene
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 59. Sixties space exploration and the 1972 United Nations
summit on the environment gave people a new
perspective
NASA Earth rise
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 60. Vladimir Verdansky (1963-1945)
• Life is a geological
force
• Noösphere – the
world of thought
driving
environmental
change
Image; Memorial Office Museum of
Academician VI Verdansky Moscow.
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 61. George Perkins Marsh (1801-1882)
Man
and
Nature
(1864)
The
Earth
as
Modified
by
Human
AcNon:
Man
and
Nature.
(1874)
George P. Marsh, photographed by Mathew B.
Brady between 1855 and 1865. Brady-Handy
Collection (Library of Congress). [call number:
BH8201-4981; reproduction number: LC-
BH8201-4981 DLC (b&w film copy neg.)
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 62. Edward Seuss (1831-1914)
Developed the concept
of the biosphere.
Image: Eigenes Foto einer
Originallithographie in eigenem
Besitz
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 63. Antonio Stoppani (1824-1891)
Humanity is a
“new telluric
force, which in
power and
universality may
be compared to
the greater
forces of earth.”
Corso di geologia
1873.
‘Anthropozoic era’ Image: Paleontologica
Lombarda
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 64. When did the Anthropocene start? Start of large-scale
hunting? Dawn of agriculture? Industrial revolution?
1950?
Fire Hunting Agriculture Industrial
revolution
Digital age
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 66. 2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit 1996 macrae@geo.ucalgary.ca
- 67. But the rest of the world is not
waiting…
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 72. “The concept of the
ANTHROPOCENE
heralds a profound
shift in PERCEPTION
of our place in the
WORLD.”
Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom
(1933-2012)
Planet Under Pressure
Photo credit: Chris Meyer
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 73. Centuries from now,
the defining event of the
20th century may not be the
Great Wars, the battle of ideologies,
or even the Industrial Revolution per se.
It may well be the ascendency of a
single species to become the
dominant geological force –
in a single human lifetime.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Image: NASA, released 5 Dec 2012
- 74. …Where are we going?
The role of ICT in changing the narrative
2012 © Owen Gaffney Image: NASA, released 5 Dec 2012
- 76. 2011 Global connectivity has moved into hyperdrive
2.3 billion internet users (30% of population)
6 billion mobile phone subscriptions
By 2015, 60% of world population will be online
Data: ITU Measuring the Information Society (2012)
Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 78. Within a decade A L L but the
most marginalised in societies
will be C O N N E C T E D in new
and p r ofou nd w ays.
Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 79. Arab Spring
“The regimes thought the youth were divorced
from politics. They didn’t notice that young
people were connected among themselves.”
Syrian activist “Khaled”, Financial Times, Dec 2011.
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 80. Arab Spring
Defining features
• Complex causes but
social media has
defining role
• Heightened
awareness of equality
and fairness
• Social media exposes
extent of distrust
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 81. Occupy movement
Defining features
• Social media has
defining role
• Demanding openness
and transparency
• Heightened
awareness of equality
and fairness
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 82. “Discontinuities are…
precisely what you would
expect if you consider
today’s societies from a
complex-systems
perspective.”
“Social media…have the
potential to facilitate
qualitatively new collective
behaviours.”
Ball P. Nature
21 December 2011
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 83. “Isolated, anonymous
individuals overharvest
common-pool resources.”
BUT…
Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom
(1933-2012)
Photo credit: Chris Meyer
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 84. “Simply allowing
COMMUNICATION, or
“CHEAP TALK,” enables
participants to reduce
overharvesting. ”
Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom
(1933-2012)
Photo credit: Chris Meyer
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 85. • Reliable knowledge
• Individuals like to see how
sustainability benefits whole
group
• Trust others to keep promises
Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom
(1933-2012)
Photo credit: Chris Meyer
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 87. “There is a direct link from more precise
gossip at the watercooler to better
decisions.”
Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman
Thinking, fast and slow, 2011
With social networking we
have a global watercooler
Photo: Jon Roemer
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 89. Conclusions
• In one lifetime humanity has become a global
geological force – the Great Acceleration
• Earth is moving out of its current geological
epoch, the Holocene – the Anthropocene
• Action on global sustainability essential
• Change in WORLDVIEW required. Could social
media be a keystone innovation?
2012 © Owen Gaffney Image: NASA, released 5 Dec 2012
- 90. D
N
A
Like
DNA, the word
ANTHROPOCENE
is destined to leap from the world of science into the
GLOBAL LEXICON
2012 © Owen Gaffney
- 92. WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE
The geology of humanity
MELBOURNE, December 2012
Thank you!
@owengaffney
#anthropocene
WEB
www.anthropocene.info
www.anthropocenejournal.com
www.igbp.net
EMAIL
Owen.gaffney@igbp.kva.se
2012 © Owen Gaffney