PLANETARY BOUNDARIES<br />the urgent need for societal transformations<br />
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES<br />the urgent need for societal transformations<br />MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin<br />dotEarth, New Yo...
Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship<br />Professor Sybil Seitzinger<br />Executive Director<br /...
Antarctic ice core<br />Modern humans appear in Africa<br />Carbon dioxide<br />Methane<br />Carbon<br />dioxide<br />Temp...
Antarctic ice core<br />Beyond natural boundaries<br />Methane<br />Carbon<br />dioxide<br />Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal ...
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)<br />And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004<br />Human Development andGlacial-Inte...
IGBP Climate-change index<br />Global carbon dioxide<br />Arctic sea-ice minimum<br />Global surface temperature<br />Glob...
IGBP Climate-change index<br />
The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure<br />
Population<br />US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth Sys...
Total real GDP<br />Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Ch...
Foreign direct investment<br />World Bank (2002) data and statistics<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth Syst...
Damming of rivers<br />World Commission on Dams (2000)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et...
Water use<br />Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen ...
Fertiliser consumption<br />International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and th...
Urban population<br />The State of the World’s Cities (2001)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Stef...
Paper consumption<br />Pulp and paper international (1993)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffe...
Motor vehicles<br />Global environmental outlook (2000)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen e...
Telephones<br />Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank<br />IGBP synthesis: Global C...
International tourism<br />World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change an...
Shrimp farm production<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Domesticated land<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Planetary response<br />
Atmospheric CO2 concentration<br />Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the ...
Atmospheric N2O concentration<br />Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the ...
Atmospheric CH4 concentration<br />Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Ear...
Northern hemisphere average surface temperature<br />Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762<br />IGBP synthesis: Globa...
Ozone depletion<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Tropical rainforest and woodland loss <br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Natural climatic disasters <br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Fisheries exploitation<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Coastal zone nitrogen flux<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Biodiversity loss<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
Great acceleration<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”<br />    Ban Ki-Moon       	<br />
A resilient Earth System<br />
Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament<br />
Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?<br />Photograph by Annie Griffiths Belt<br />National Geographic, February 2...
Ozone<br />Depletion<br />Climate Change<br />Atmospheric Aerosol Loading<br />Nitrogen<br />Ocean <br />Acidification<br ...
2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum<br />“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”<br />
Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity<br />
Planetary Stewardship<br />2020<br />2040<br />2050<br />2030<br />
New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012<br />
Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship<br />Professor Sybil Seitzinger<br />Executive Director<br /...
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Planetary and societal risks

  1. 1. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES<br />the urgent need for societal transformations<br />
  2. 2. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES<br />the urgent need for societal transformations<br />MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin<br />dotEarth, New York Times<br />Sybil Seitzinger<br />International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme<br />Deborah Rogers<br />International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change<br />Gisbert Glaser<br />Senior Policy Advisor<br />International Council for Science<br />
  3. 3. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship<br />Professor Sybil Seitzinger<br />Executive Director<br />International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme<br />
  4. 4.
  5. 5. Antarctic ice core<br />Modern humans appear in Africa<br />Carbon dioxide<br />Methane<br />Carbon<br />dioxide<br />Temperature<br />Methane<br />Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.<br />Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008. <br />
  6. 6. Antarctic ice core<br />Beyond natural boundaries<br />Methane<br />Carbon<br />dioxide<br />Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.<br />Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008. <br />
  7. 7. Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)<br />And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004<br />Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling<br />Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004<br />
  8. 8. IGBP Climate-change index<br />Global carbon dioxide<br />Arctic sea-ice minimum<br />Global surface temperature<br />Global sea level<br />
  9. 9. IGBP Climate-change index<br />
  10. 10. The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure<br />
  11. 11. Population<br />US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  12. 12. Total real GDP<br />Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  13. 13. Foreign direct investment<br />World Bank (2002) data and statistics<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  14. 14. Damming of rivers<br />World Commission on Dams (2000)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  15. 15. Water use<br />Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  16. 16. Fertiliser consumption<br />International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  17. 17. Urban population<br />The State of the World’s Cities (2001)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  18. 18. Paper consumption<br />Pulp and paper international (1993)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  19. 19. Motor vehicles<br />Global environmental outlook (2000)<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  20. 20. Telephones<br />Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  21. 21. International tourism<br />World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  22. 22. Shrimp farm production<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  23. 23. Domesticated land<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  24. 24. Planetary response<br />
  25. 25. Atmospheric CO2 concentration<br />Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  26. 26. Atmospheric N2O concentration<br />Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  27. 27. Atmospheric CH4 concentration<br />Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  28. 28. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature<br />Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  29. 29. Ozone depletion<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  30. 30. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss <br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  31. 31. Natural climatic disasters <br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  32. 32. Fisheries exploitation<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  33. 33. Coastal zone nitrogen flux<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  34. 34. Biodiversity loss<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  35. 35. Great acceleration<br />IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004<br />
  36. 36. “Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”<br /> Ban Ki-Moon <br />
  37. 37. A resilient Earth System<br />
  38. 38. Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament<br />
  39. 39. Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?<br />Photograph by Annie Griffiths Belt<br />National Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.<br />
  40. 40. Ozone<br />Depletion<br />Climate Change<br />Atmospheric Aerosol Loading<br />Nitrogen<br />Ocean <br />Acidification<br />Phosphorus <br />Rate of Biodiversity Loss<br />Global <br />FreshwaterUse<br />Land System Change<br />Chemical <br />Pollution <br />Rockström et al. 2009<br />
  41. 41. 2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum<br />“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”<br />
  42. 42. Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity<br />
  43. 43. Planetary Stewardship<br />2020<br />2040<br />2050<br />2030<br />
  44. 44. New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012<br />
  45. 45. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship<br />Professor Sybil Seitzinger<br />Executive Director<br />International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme<br />www.igbp.net<br />Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se<br />

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