Presentation for SoCap11.

1. A NEW KIND OF EDEN
Envisioning a Sustainable Future
JAMAIS CASCIO
SOCAP11

3. THE FUTURE,
AS SEEN FROM
THE PRESENT

15. Source: IFTF from data presented in h6p://www.newscien:st.com/ar:cle/mg20327266.500‐fair‐carbon‐means‐no‐carbon‐for‐rich‐countries.html

16. WHY SCENARIOS?

17. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY

18. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY
Testing Strategic Options
Seeking Adaptation
Evolving within a Dynamic
Environment

19. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE

20. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE
Clarifying Goals
Offering Perspective
Connecting Purpose and
Intent Over the Long Term

21. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”

22. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”
Testing Implications
Seeking Points of Influence
Uncovering Longer-Term
Results of Present Choices

23. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
FLUX CAPACITY
CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

24. WALKING THE TIGHTROPE

25. Design Principle: Efficiency
Politics: Top-Down Leadership
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
Society: Transparent
Economics: Regulated
Technologies: Adaptive

26. 22

31. POSSIBLE GEOENGINEERING TECHNIQUES

32. WALKING THE TIGHTROPE

33. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
FLUX CAPACITY
CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

34. FLUX CAPACITY

35. Design Principle: Resilience
Politics: Recovery After Crisis
Society: Remaking Institutions
Economics: Maker World
FLUX CAPACITY
Technologies: Careful

40. 36

41. 37

42. 38

43. FLUX CAPACITY

44. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
FLUX CAPACITY
CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

45. CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

46. Design Principle: Experimentation
Politics: Disrupted
Society: Rapidly Evolving
Economics: Restoration
Technologies: Transformative
CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

48. 44

51. 47

53. CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

54. THE PRESENT,
AS SEEN FROM
THE FUTURE

56. JAMAIS CASCIO
openthefuture.com
@cascio
A NEW KIND OF EDEN
SOCAP11

57. Walking the Tightrope
• Mainstream vision
• Hard to achieve
• Minimizing changes to lifestyles
• emphasis on efficiency
• “steady change and strong leadership
• better-than-LEED buildings, electric cars
• robot ag, careful biotech food
• everything tagged and traceable
• US-led, US hurt less by climate disruption than China/EU
• Geoengineering
• International cooperation
• Heavy regulation, but still market-oriented
• Developing world leapfrog
• China/India/etc focus on getting to better-than-US lifestyle, not just replicating west
• Very top-down

58. Flux Capacity
• Hippie Nirvana? Not quite.
• Recovery story, we are forced to rebuild the world; Adaptation
• Most existing institutions questioned
• Distributed and collaborative
• Key design principle is resilience
• Still high-tech, emphasis on social tech; “Cyber Amish”
• Post-disaster, not post-apocalypse; long economic crisis
• EU split, China unstable, US lost empire; no leading superpower
• Strong regionalism; world no longer “flat,” it’s very bumpy
• citizenship often tied to city-states/megapolitan areas
• rapid local fab, global markets are for info/design
• slow-down of technological innovation
• hybrid electric/sail cargo ships, permaculture farms, less long-distance travel
• Deep interconnection, but often virtual; lots of sharing
• It Gets Better

59. Catalytic Conversions
• Radical tech
• Move from adaptation to restoration
• rapid transformation: things get weird fast; not a “Green Singularity,” but close to it
• New models of governance, work, play
• Notions of citizenship, commerce, even human identity called into question
• Advanced neurotech, molecular fab, general machine intelligence
• Neuro: augmentation, drugs, digital
• Fab: nanotech. Smart materials, waste=resource, disrupted markets
• GMI: knowledge work, ubiquitous
• Also medical, energy, biotech. Biomimetic, robots, etc.
• Basic Income Guarantees and the end of traditional work
• Tools of empowerment or of control? Lots of international disruption
• Big benefits, but also big risks
• “Mental health is civil defense”
• Only one to get us out of “sustainability trap” - sustainability is just the start