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A New Kind of Eden

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A NEW KIND OF EDEN
      Envisioning a Sustainable Future




                     JAMAIS CASCIO
                         SOCAP11
A New Kind of Eden
THE FUTURE,
AS SEEN FROM
  THE PRESENT
A New Kind of Eden
A New Kind of Eden
A New Kind of Eden

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A New Kind of Eden

  • 1. A NEW KIND OF EDEN Envisioning a Sustainable Future JAMAIS CASCIO SOCAP11
  • 3. THE FUTURE, AS SEEN FROM THE PRESENT
  • 17. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY
  • 18. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment
  • 19. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE
  • 20. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term
  • 21. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”
  • 22. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM” Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices
  • 23. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  • 25. Design Principle: Efficiency Politics: Top-Down Leadership WALKING THE TIGHTROPE Society: Transparent Economics: Regulated Technologies: Adaptive
  • 26. 22
  • 33. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  • 35. Design Principle: Resilience Politics: Recovery After Crisis Society: Remaking Institutions Economics: Maker World FLUX CAPACITY Technologies: Careful
  • 40. 36
  • 41. 37
  • 42. 38
  • 44. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  • 46. Design Principle: Experimentation Politics: Disrupted Society: Rapidly Evolving Economics: Restoration Technologies: Transformative CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  • 48. 44
  • 51. 47
  • 54. THE PRESENT, AS SEEN FROM THE FUTURE
  • 56. JAMAIS CASCIO openthefuture.com @cascio A NEW KIND OF EDEN SOCAP11
  • 57. Walking the Tightrope • Mainstream vision • Hard to achieve • Minimizing changes to lifestyles • emphasis on efficiency • “steady change and strong leadership • better-than-LEED buildings, electric cars • robot ag, careful biotech food • everything tagged and traceable • US-led, US hurt less by climate disruption than China/EU • Geoengineering • International cooperation • Heavy regulation, but still market-oriented • Developing world leapfrog • China/India/etc focus on getting to better-than-US lifestyle, not just replicating west • Very top-down
  • 58. Flux Capacity • Hippie Nirvana? Not quite. • Recovery story, we are forced to rebuild the world; Adaptation • Most existing institutions questioned • Distributed and collaborative • Key design principle is resilience • Still high-tech, emphasis on social tech; “Cyber Amish” • Post-disaster, not post-apocalypse; long economic crisis • EU split, China unstable, US lost empire; no leading superpower • Strong regionalism; world no longer “flat,” it’s very bumpy • citizenship often tied to city-states/megapolitan areas • rapid local fab, global markets are for info/design • slow-down of technological innovation • hybrid electric/sail cargo ships, permaculture farms, less long-distance travel • Deep interconnection, but often virtual; lots of sharing • It Gets Better
  • 59. Catalytic Conversions • Radical tech • Move from adaptation to restoration • rapid transformation: things get weird fast; not a “Green Singularity,” but close to it • New models of governance, work, play • Notions of citizenship, commerce, even human identity called into question • Advanced neurotech, molecular fab, general machine intelligence • Neuro: augmentation, drugs, digital • Fab: nanotech. Smart materials, waste=resource, disrupted markets • GMI: knowledge work, ubiquitous • Also medical, energy, biotech. Biomimetic, robots, etc. • Basic Income Guarantees and the end of traditional work • Tools of empowerment or of control? Lots of international disruption • Big benefits, but also big risks • “Mental health is civil defense” • Only one to get us out of “sustainability trap” - sustainability is just the start

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