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A New Kind of Eden

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Presentation for SoCap11.

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A New Kind of Eden

  1. A NEW KIND OF EDEN Envisioning a Sustainable Future JAMAIS CASCIO SOCAP11
  2. THE FUTURE,AS SEEN FROM THE PRESENT
  3. Source:
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  4. WHY SCENARIOS?
  5. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY
  6. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment
  7. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE
  8. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term
  9. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”
  10. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM” Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices
  11. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  12. WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
  13. Design Principle: EfficiencyPolitics: Top-Down Leadership WALKING THE TIGHTROPESociety: TransparentEconomics: RegulatedTechnologies: Adaptive
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  15. POSSIBLE GEOENGINEERING TECHNIQUES
  16. WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
  17. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  18. FLUX CAPACITY
  19. Design Principle: ResiliencePolitics: Recovery After CrisisSociety: Remaking InstitutionsEconomics: Maker World FLUX CAPACITYTechnologies: Careful
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  23. FLUX CAPACITY
  24. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  25. CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  26. Design Principle: ExperimentationPolitics: DisruptedSociety: Rapidly EvolvingEconomics: RestorationTechnologies: Transformative CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
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  29. CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
  30. THE PRESENT,AS SEEN FROM THE FUTURE
  31. JAMAIS CASCIO openthefuture.com @cascio A NEW KIND OF EDEN SOCAP11
  32. Walking the Tightrope• Mainstream vision• Hard to achieve• Minimizing changes to lifestyles• emphasis on efficiency• “steady change and strong leadership• better-than-LEED buildings, electric cars• robot ag, careful biotech food• everything tagged and traceable• US-led, US hurt less by climate disruption than China/EU• Geoengineering• International cooperation• Heavy regulation, but still market-oriented• Developing world leapfrog• China/India/etc focus on getting to better-than-US lifestyle, not just replicating west• Very top-down
  33. Flux Capacity• Hippie Nirvana? Not quite.• Recovery story, we are forced to rebuild the world; Adaptation• Most existing institutions questioned• Distributed and collaborative• Key design principle is resilience• Still high-tech, emphasis on social tech; “Cyber Amish”• Post-disaster, not post-apocalypse; long economic crisis• EU split, China unstable, US lost empire; no leading superpower• Strong regionalism; world no longer “flat,” it’s very bumpy• citizenship often tied to city-states/megapolitan areas• rapid local fab, global markets are for info/design• slow-down of technological innovation• hybrid electric/sail cargo ships, permaculture farms, less long-distance travel• Deep interconnection, but often virtual; lots of sharing• It Gets Better
  34. Catalytic Conversions• Radical tech• Move from adaptation to restoration• rapid transformation: things get weird fast; not a “Green Singularity,” but close to it• New models of governance, work, play• Notions of citizenship, commerce, even human identity called into question• Advanced neurotech, molecular fab, general machine intelligence• Neuro: augmentation, drugs, digital• Fab: nanotech. Smart materials, waste=resource, disrupted markets• GMI: knowledge work, ubiquitous• Also medical, energy, biotech. Biomimetic, robots, etc.• Basic Income Guarantees and the end of traditional work• Tools of empowerment or of control? Lots of international disruption• Big benefits, but also big risks• “Mental health is civil defense”• Only one to get us out of “sustainability trap” - sustainability is just the start

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