A New Kind of Eden

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  • A New Kind of Eden

    1. A NEW KIND OF EDEN Envisioning a Sustainable Future JAMAIS CASCIO SOCAP11
    2. THE FUTURE,AS SEEN FROM THE PRESENT
    3. Source:
IFTF
from
data
presented
in
h6p://www.newscien:st.com/ar:cle/mg20327266.500‐fair‐carbon‐means‐no‐carbon‐for‐rich‐countries.html
    4. WHY SCENARIOS?
    5. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY
    6. TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment
    7. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE
    8. TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term
    9. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”
    10. TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM” Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices
    11. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
    12. WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
    13. Design Principle: EfficiencyPolitics: Top-Down Leadership WALKING THE TIGHTROPESociety: TransparentEconomics: RegulatedTechnologies: Adaptive
    14. 22
    15. POSSIBLE GEOENGINEERING TECHNIQUES
    16. WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
    17. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
    18. FLUX CAPACITY
    19. Design Principle: ResiliencePolitics: Recovery After CrisisSociety: Remaking InstitutionsEconomics: Maker World FLUX CAPACITYTechnologies: Careful
    20. 36
    21. 37
    22. 38
    23. FLUX CAPACITY
    24. 3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
    25. CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
    26. Design Principle: ExperimentationPolitics: DisruptedSociety: Rapidly EvolvingEconomics: RestorationTechnologies: Transformative CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
    27. 44
    28. 47
    29. CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS
    30. THE PRESENT,AS SEEN FROM THE FUTURE
    31. JAMAIS CASCIO openthefuture.com @cascio A NEW KIND OF EDEN SOCAP11
    32. Walking the Tightrope• Mainstream vision• Hard to achieve• Minimizing changes to lifestyles• emphasis on efficiency• “steady change and strong leadership• better-than-LEED buildings, electric cars• robot ag, careful biotech food• everything tagged and traceable• US-led, US hurt less by climate disruption than China/EU• Geoengineering• International cooperation• Heavy regulation, but still market-oriented• Developing world leapfrog• China/India/etc focus on getting to better-than-US lifestyle, not just replicating west• Very top-down
    33. Flux Capacity• Hippie Nirvana? Not quite.• Recovery story, we are forced to rebuild the world; Adaptation• Most existing institutions questioned• Distributed and collaborative• Key design principle is resilience• Still high-tech, emphasis on social tech; “Cyber Amish”• Post-disaster, not post-apocalypse; long economic crisis• EU split, China unstable, US lost empire; no leading superpower• Strong regionalism; world no longer “flat,” it’s very bumpy• citizenship often tied to city-states/megapolitan areas• rapid local fab, global markets are for info/design• slow-down of technological innovation• hybrid electric/sail cargo ships, permaculture farms, less long-distance travel• Deep interconnection, but often virtual; lots of sharing• It Gets Better
    34. Catalytic Conversions• Radical tech• Move from adaptation to restoration• rapid transformation: things get weird fast; not a “Green Singularity,” but close to it• New models of governance, work, play• Notions of citizenship, commerce, even human identity called into question• Advanced neurotech, molecular fab, general machine intelligence• Neuro: augmentation, drugs, digital• Fab: nanotech. Smart materials, waste=resource, disrupted markets• GMI: knowledge work, ubiquitous• Also medical, energy, biotech. Biomimetic, robots, etc.• Basic Income Guarantees and the end of traditional work• Tools of empowerment or of control? Lots of international disruption• Big benefits, but also big risks• “Mental health is civil defense”• Only one to get us out of “sustainability trap” - sustainability is just the start

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