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Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10

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Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10

  1. 1. Leaders Make the FutureExternal Future Forces Affecting Leaders of Cooperative Extension<br />Bob Johansen<br />Extension Directors and Administrators<br />National Meeting, Tampa Bay<br />March 17, 2010<br />© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235<br />
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  3. 3. A VUCA World Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous<br />
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  6. 6. Anything happening on the net—beyond your device. <br />“The network is the computer” will finally come true.<br />The cloud will transform learning and leadership…<br />Cloud Computing<br />
  7. 7. Networks that get better the more people who use them.<br />The Cloud<br />
  8. 8. Reciprocity<br /> is the currency of the cloud<br />The Cloud<br />
  9. 9. if you are 25 or less, the definition of a “generation” is about 6 years…only those 13 or less are true digital natives<br />
  10. 10. 1964 World’s Fair Futurama<br />1939 World’s Fair Futurama<br />10<br />
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  15. 15. Maker Instinct|A culture of “makers” and DIY spirit will transform how stuff is designed, manufactured, and distributed. <br />The word “consumer” will become obsolete. The word “student” may be as well. Everyone will be a maker/learner.<br />Signal: Maker Faire is an annual celebration of do-it-yourself where hundreds of “makers” show off their projects to 100,000 visitors. <br />http://www.makerfaire.com<br />
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  17. 17. INSTRUCTABLES: a brand that is a community of makers<br />
  18. 18. 18<br />A Contest on the Instructables Platform<br />
  19. 19. Maker Instinct applied to lending… close and personal<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Institute for the Future 10-Year Forecast<br />2009: voice and text<br />< 2019: smartphone world computer<br />voice, video, web, GPS, sensors<br />
  21. 21. 21<br /> innovation from diversity|Emerging markets will be important sources of innovations. Engaging with communities in authentic ways could lead to new partnerships and INSIGHTS for all involved. <br />Signal: GroupeDanone built local microplants in Bangladesh where the lack of refrigerated storage prevented large scale operations. Local merchants sell the products out of hand-carried coolers. <br />http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/133/as-the-world-turns.html<br />
  22. 22. Thrive 365 Plus: Kraft Foods prototype for people with diabetes to guide their eating and their health<br />
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  25. 25. SUSTAINABILITY MEETS STRATEGY…<br />
  26. 26. four rows,four strategic responses to sustainability<br />Commons<br />Markets<br />Policy<br />Science & technology<br />
  27. 27. seven columns, seven perspectives on sustainability <br />Human well-being<br />Culture and society<br />The economy<br />Infrastructure<br />Natural resources<br />Ecosystems<br />Governance<br />
  28. 28. The Global Health Economy <br />Cosmetics<br />Fashion<br />TraditionalHealthcare<br />Food andsupplements<br />Retail<br />Security<br />Buildingsupplies<br />Wellness<br />Financialservices<br />Consumerelectronics<br />Information<br />
  29. 29. The Global Health Economy Includes Sustainability<br />Cosmetics<br />Fashion<br />TraditionalHealthcare<br />Food andsupplements<br />Retail<br />Security<br />Buildingsupplies<br />Wellness<br />Financialservices<br />Consumerelectronics<br />Information<br />
  30. 30. 30<br />Signal:health resources in grocery stores… <br />
  31. 31. 31<br />Signal:mobile health tools, anytime anyplace… <br />
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  33. 33. 33<br />
  34. 34. 34<br />The VUCA World<br />Training and education = success<br />
  35. 35. 35<br />
  36. 36. Dilemmas…Leaders LIKE the space betweenjudging too soonanddeciding too late<br />
  37. 37. Threadless: innovation through rapid SHOPPER PROTOTPYING<br />
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  39. 39. 39<br />
  40. 40. PEOPLE WILL CHOOSE THEIR OWN CLOUD OF VIRTUAL RESOURCES TO FILTER THEIR EXPERIENCE OF THE PHYSICAL WORLD<br />
  41. 41. virtual overlay on the shopping experience|Much more information will be digitized. From safety concerns to environmental stats, if Target doesn’t make its data transparent, someone else will—and they may be wrong. This kind of transparency isn't about self-righteous claims; rather, it’s about honest, authentic, quiet transparency. <br />Signal: The GoodGuideenales shoppers to search 70,000+ food, personal care, and household products “to see what’s really beaneath the label.”<br />http://www.goodguide.com<br />
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  52. 52. Amplified learners|New technologies of cooperation will enable a shift toward skills that leverage the collective intelligence of others. <br />Signal: Daily Strength is an online support group platform with 500+ discussion groups for health issues and life challenges.<br />http://www.dailystrength.org/<br />
  53. 53. “<br />When we change the way we communicate, we change society<br />—Clay Shirky<br />”<br />
  54. 54. Crowdsourced health <br />54<br />
  55. 55. 55<br />Beyond today’s social media…<br />
  56. 56. video will be the medium of choice for guests<br />56<br />
  57. 57.
  58. 58. The younger you are, the better your video literacy<br />
  59. 59. 59<br />How do you turn <br />attention into engagement <br />in the cloud?<br />
  60. 60. 60<br />Using fun to engage guests and potential guests with a brand…Volkswagen?<br />
  61. 61. 61<br />
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  63. 63. 63<br />diasporas |Diasporas are dispersed populations, physical and virtual, with shared roots and strong values. Amplified by social media, these diasporas will emerge as new markets and new economies where identity is the core story. Diasporas will drive innovation, growth, and disruption.<br />Signal: Tuangos are buying collectives that form via the Chinese language Internet. Consumers connect around a desired product, and then negotiate with the seller for a bulk discount.<br />
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  66. 66. commons<br />
  67. 67. commons: <br />a resource held and managed bythose who use it<br />
  68. 68. traditional commons: <br />geographically bounded<br />
  69. 69. traditional commons: <br />subject to depletion<br />
  70. 70. from traditional commons<br />to new commons<br />
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  72. 72. Waiting for image from Kelly Traver<br />
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  74. 74. New Commons: checklist for success<br />Evolvability: give everyone freedom to make improvements<br />Scale: take advantage of everyone’s contribution<br />Relevance: offer ambient information to visitors<br />Abundance: reverse scarcity through use of social capital<br />Adaptive emotions: harness awe and wonder<br />Optimism: amplify hope<br />… and make it FUN!<br />
  75. 75. HYPOTHESIS<br />Innovation in the cloud will be the biggest learning opportunity in history.<br />hypothesis: <br />
  76. 76. Reciprocity is the currency of the cloud<br />Thinking ahead, what should be Cooperative Extension’s reciprocity?<br />The Cloud<br />
  77. 77. 77<br />
  78. 78. Live long by looking long.<br />—Tao Te Ching<br />78<br />
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  80. 80. Leaders Make the FutureExternal Future Forces Affecting Leaders of Cooperative Extension<br />Bob Johansen<br />Extension Directors and Administrators<br />National Meeting, Tampa Bay<br />March 17, 2010<br />© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235<br />
  81. 81. New commons example:<br />
  82. 82. New commons:<br />A resource created and maintainedby those who use it<br />
  83. 83. New commons:<br />Intangible plus material value<br />
  84. 84. What if you wanted to…<br />… transform unhealthy behaviors into healthy behaviors?<br />
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  89. 89. video will be a part of almost every organizational strategy<br />
  90. 90. video technologies will transform the inert surfaces to interactive venues…anything can be a display <br />
  91. 91. amateur videos will mix (even more) with broadcast media<br />
  92. 92. griefing will be part of everyday life<br />
  93. 93. from passive individual viewing to interactive engagement<br />
  94. 94. www.bkconnection.com<br />
  95. 95. www.endowedparishes.org<br />
  96. 96. THE BOOK OF PROVOCATION |faith in the future | conversations<br />
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  99. 99. 2009 Ten-Year Forecast<br />Superstructing the Decade<br />Kathi VianDirector, Ten-Year Forecast <br />Institute for the Future<br />Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat<br />April 20–21, 2009<br />© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229<br />
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  101. 101. virtual overlay on the physical world |Sophisticated technologies for sensing, recording, and communicating data are being embedded in our surroundings. Raw materials, products, factories, and entire ecoystems will tell their own stories. <br />Signal: TCHO Chocolate and FXPAL are experimenting with sensors and mixed-reality systems to instrument the factory floor for fine-grained monitoring, optimization, and even iPhone control.<br />http://palblog.fxpal.com/?p=120 <br />
  102. 102. Open innovation<br />102<br />Sage Vision: Create an open access, integrative bionetwork evolved by contributor scientists working to eliminate human disease<br />

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