Investing in Indochina Power Projects to Secure Energy Supply

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DUANE MORRIS VIETNAM LLC
Investing in Indochina Power Projects
to Secure Energy Supply
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AGENCY
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• Key energy policies, targets and objectives in
Indochina region countries
• Power Demand and Supply in Indochina
region countries
• Investment Opportunities in Indochina
Power Sector
• Financing Options for Power Investment
Project

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Overview on Indochina Power
• Indochina region: A peninsula of
Southeast Asia comprising Vietnam,
Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar,
and the mainland territory of Malaysia
• But we are talking only the power
industry in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
and Vietnam
• Indochina and GMS regional
electricity market: To address the
rapid demand growth and concerns on
energy security, the Indochina region
together with the GMS countries has
been developing regional cooperation
in the power sector, regional
transmission networks and promoting
cross-border investments in energy
resources with the purpose of
developing a regional electricity market
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WEO 2013 Special report

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Power Trading in Indochina Region
• Power trading in Indochina:
 The power trading market in Indochina still remain dominated by state-
owned utilities:
 Cambodia: With a consolidate license, the state-owned Electricité du Cambodge
(EDC) is the dominant key player in the electricity market
 Laos: Electricité du Laos (EDL) is the state corporation of Laos that holds
a monopoly on power market
 Myanmar: Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise under the Ministry of Electric
Power is responsible for the development and implementation of transmission
network
 Vietnam: Electricity of Vietnam (EVN), a state owned enterprise under the
jurisdiction and management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, holds a
monopoly on electricity transmission and distribution
• Although there is large-scale penetration by independent power producers (IPPs)
in all countries except Vietnam.
• The IPPs have been developed by the state-owned entities in some cases
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Power Trading in Indochina Region
 Electricity transmission and distribution: Generation, transmission and
distribution are vertically integrated in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam while in
Myanmar, transmission and distribution are integrated
 Cambodia:
 Through three different types of licensees: EDC, IPPs, and consolidated
licensees including REEs
 Private participation in transmission: First private company: (Cambodia) Power
Transmission Lines Co Ltd with a financial support from ADB
 Laos: EDL owns and operates the electricity generation, transmission and
distribution. EDL also manages the import and export from the national electricity
grid
 Myanmar: Distribution systems operated through The Yangon City Electricity
Supply Board in Yangon City and the Electricity Supply Enterprise covers the rest of
Myanmar including off-grid generation and distribution
 Vietnam: EVN holds a monopoly on electricity transmission and distribution
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Power Trading in Indochina Region
• Competitive power market:
 None of the countries has introduced competitive power
markets, either at the wholesale or retail level
 Vietnam has issued and is implementing a road map to
develop competitive power trading market (2015-2022)
and operate a competitive retail sale power market (after
2022) but now still a single-buyer market model
 Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are small for competitive
power markets to be realistic
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Key energy policies, targets and objectives
in Indochina region
• Cambodia:
 Develop hydropower to lower cost of power domestically
 Reach a 15% share of renewables in generation by 2015
 Manage development of petroleum resources to secure
supplies and utilize revenues to grow the economy and
reduce poverty
 Increase grid-quality electricity access to 70% of
households by 2030 (and 100% electricity access in any
form for villages by 2020)
 Reduce final energy demand intensity by 10% by 2030
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WEO 2013 Special report

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Key energy policies, targets and objectives
in Indochina region
• Laos:
 Develop hydropower and other renewable resources for domestic
and export markets
 Build 5 GW of new hydropower capacity and 1.9 GW of coal-fired
capacity by 2015
 Improve transmission lines in the northern, central and southern
areas and links with Thailand and Vietnam
 Increase share of renewables (including traditional biomass) in
primary energy supply by 30% by 2025, including a 10% target for
bio-fuels in transport
 Reduce final energy consumption by 10% by 2025
 Increase household electrification to 80% by 2015 and 90% by 2020
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WEO 2013 Special report

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Key energy policies, targets and objectives
in Indochina region
• Myanmar:
 Targets a reduction in primary energy consumption of 5% in 2020
and 8% by 2030 (compared with business-as-usual) and an increase
in the share of renewables in power generating capacity to 15-18%
by 2020
 As part of power sector reforms, electricity prices were increased in
January 2012
 Diesel and gasoline prices were indexed to Singapore spot market
prices in 2011
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WEO 2013 Special report

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Key energy policies, targets and objectives
in Indochina region
• Vietnam
 Reach 75 GW of generation capacity by 2020 and 150 GW by 2030
 Achieve 5% of power generation from renewable energy resources
by 2020 and 12 GW of nuclear power by 2030
 Encourage private investment in the power sector
 Efficiency measures to save 5-8% of energy consumption over
2010-2015
 Further develop local natural gas resources, increase imports and
more investment in infrastructure
 Build oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of net imports by 2025
 Reach 100% electrification of rural households by 2020. Cut CO2
emissions intensity by 8-10% by 2020 compared with 2010 levels
10 WEO 2013 Special report

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Power Demand and Supply in
Indochina region
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Power Demand and Supply in Indochina region
• Cambodia:
 Electricity supply currently does not meet the basic demands
 In 2011, 45% of the total national electricity demand of 2,674 GWh was covered by
imports from Thailand, Vietnam and Lao PDR while the national electrification
increased to 34%
 Cambodia’s total energy consumption is projected to grow at an average annual
rate of 5.2% for the period 2009 to 2035 with an assumed total energy demand of
5,948ktoe in 2035
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EUEI PDF report

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Power Demand and Supply in Indochina region
• Laos:
 The average yearly growth rate of energy
demand in period 2010-2020 are 21.1% and 17.9%
respectively %
 Laos is importing electricity from China,
Thailand and Vietnam while exporting a large
amount of hydropower to Thailand since it has
to re-import electricity to supply provinces that
are not connected to the national power grid
 However, by 2015 Laos would not need to import
electricity. At present, Laos has about 20 dams
with combined installed power of 3,000MW and
in 2015, this figure is expected to reach
5,735MW, and 11,909 MW in 2020 (the report of
the Ministry of Energy and Mines)
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FFRC eBOOK 8/2012

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Power Demand and Supply in Indochina region
• Myanmar:
• Myanmar’s per capita electricity consumption is estimated at 100 kilowatt hours
(KWh) in 2010, lowest among the ASEAN-10 countries while less than 25 percent
of Myanmar has access to electricity
• The demand will double from 12,459 million kWh in 2012-13 to 25,683 million
kWh in 2018-19 with a compound rate of growth of 13% per year %
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EUEI PDF report

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Power Demand and Supply in Indochina region
• Vietnam:
 Vietnam will soon face seriously with power
shortage if it fails to increase its’ power
generation capacity. Since 2007, Vietnam
has been lacking 800-1,000MW a year
 Vietnam imported about 1,000 MW from
China, accounting for 3-4 per cent of its’
domestic power production
 Vietnam planned to import more electricity
through its investment in several power
plants in Lao and Cambodia
 The national energy deficit is forecast to be
approximately 10 per cent by 2015 and 70
per cent by 2025
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Investment Opportunities in
Indochina Power Sector
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Investment Opportunities in Indochina
Power Sector
• Role of Infrastructure Development:
 Infrastructure investment, especially in energy sector: Key to the
development of a stable and prosperous economy
 Spending an additional 1% of world GDP on infrastructure would
increase global GDP by 2% and GDP in developing countries by
almost 7% (World Bank’s estimate)
 Rapid economic growth has put pressure on Indochina's
infrastructure
 ADB recently plotted the 10-year strategic framework for
infrastructure development in Indochina through 2022 focused on 9
sectors: energy, telecom, trade and investment, tourism,
environment, human resource development and agriculture
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Investment Opportunities in Indochina
Power Sector
• Investment Demand for Power Infrastructure:
 Electricity shortage: A major hindrance to economic
development
 Consistently high GDP growth has put pressure on
Indochina's infrastructure, and this region needs new
investment plans
 The Indochina countries has and will continue to require
significant investment in the power sector
 The Indochina countries are planning for significant
investment increases in their electricity, especially in thermal
and hydro power projects
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Investment Opportunities in Indochina
Power Sector
• Investment Demand for Power Infrastructure:
 Indochina region countries have very strong potential for growth
with lots of opportunities for foreign investors.
 But also have many challenges to solve, lacking of electricity
infrastructure
 This region demands for huge investment in power infrastructure:
 Myanmar: For the power generation sector: An investment of roughly
US$50 billion (Frost & Sullivan Report)
 Vietnam: A need of new investment of US$ 48,8 billion to triple
electricity capacity to 75,000 MW by 2020 and US$75 billion for the
period of 2021-30 ( National Power Master plan VII)
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Investment Opportunities in Indochina
Power Sector
• Investment Potential of Indochina Power Sector :
 Opportunities exist for investment in Indochina power generation as
this region’s electricity demand continues growing robustly
 Many people in the Indochina region have no access to modern
forms of energy. In 2008, 83% of households in Cambodia, 80% in
the Laos, and over 50% in Viet Nam still used wood for fuel so it is
critical to increase sustainable energy investments
 The Indochina region countries have diverse energy resources
that are unevenly distributed
 With the advantage from geographic condition, especially located in
Greater Mekong Subregion, the Indochina region countries have a
huge basin of renewable energy sources, including solar, wind,
biomass, geothermal and hydropower
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Investment Opportunities in Indochina
Power Sector
• Investment Potential of Indochina Power Sector :
 Opportunities to be funded from the financial institutions and
investment funds:
 World Bank, ADB, IMF have been having many financial support and
investing into many investment projects for development of power
infrastructure and generation systems in Indochina region
 Indochina Capital planned to spend US$50 million in financing for its
Mekong Renewable Resources Fund (MRRF), new energy focused fund
intends to acquire equity interests in thermal and hydro power projects in
Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia
 Saigon Asset Management established and is raising funds for an
Indochina Energy Fund to invest in thermal and hydro power projects and
companies in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos
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Financing Options for Power
Investment Project
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Financing Options for Power Investment Project
• Financing Model for Power Investment Project:
 Government investment funding and preferential policies
 Official Development Assistance (ODA)
 Loan from commercial banks or financial institutions
 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
 Public Private Partnership (PPP)
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Financing Options for Power Investment Project
• Government investment funding and preferential
policies:
 Infrastructure investments account for high GDP
percentage
 State budget financing big investment projects
 Preferential policies from Government:
 Fiscal credibility
 Price subsidies
 Feed-in tariff (FIT)
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Financing Options for Power Investment Project
• Official Development Assistance (ODA): Financing Programs from
World Bank; ADB; IMF; other countries’ ODA funds (e.g. Japan, European
Union, Sweden, Germany, France, USA, etc…)
 Non return ODA
 Preferential loans
• Loan from domestic and international commercial banks or
financial institutions:
 Traditional financing source;
 Preferential policy to loan for RE projects
• Clean development fund of investment funds
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM):
 Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) trading
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Financing Options for Power Investment Project
• Public Private Partnertship (PPP):
 Alternative financing source
 A means to enable the development or improvement
of energy in infrastructure through the participation
of private and government entities
• Why PPP is attractive as an off-budget mechanism for
infrastructure development?
• Government Guarantee in PPP projects:
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Financing Options for Power Investment Project
• Common type of PPP: Build Operation Transfer (BOT)
• Build Operation Transfer (BOT):
 A private entity receives a franchise from the private or
public sector organization to finance, design,
construct, and operate a facility for a specified period
of time, after which the ownership is transferred back
to the funding entity
 Many other variants such as Build-Transfer-Operate
(BTO), Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) and
Build-Rehabilitate-Operate-Transfer (BROT)
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Financing Options for Power Investment Project
• BOT Law in Indochina:
 The BOT model is applied in mostly the big projects for
infrastructure development in Indochina . This region countries have
issued many laws and regulatory backgrounds on BOT projects
 However, the current legal framework does not address the
significant legal issues hindering the foreign investment in BOT
projects => Need a entire regulatory reform to develop the current
BOT laws to match with international standards
• How to best structure investment in power generation:
 Example from Vietnam: Financing Phu My 2.2 and Phu
My 3 power plant
 Precedents for subsequent large-scale financing
 First BOT power plant invested by foreign investors
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