Nigeria needs as much as $3 trillion over the next 30 years to plug the nation’s infrastructure gap and achieve rapid sustainable development. With a capital expenditure budget of 2. 4tillion Naira in 2018, the infrastructural development sector present fantastic business opportunities for Nigerian businesses especially the ones in the infrastructural development and engineering services sector.

1. Nigeria 2018 Political Economic Outlook and
The Infrastructure Business
Sweating The Assets of Nigeria’s Massive Infrastructure Deficits
4/14/2018
Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo
1

2. Six Talking Points
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 2
5 Key Macro Political Economic Factors That Will Headline 2018 3
2017-2018 Micro Economic Indicators Highlights 4
Key 2018 Budget Indicators With Impact on Business 5
N1.3tr Key Infrastructural Project Opportunities in 2018 6
20 New Road Construction Projects Worth N13b In 2018 Budget 7
Key Imperatives For Action For the Infrastructure Development Sector 8

3. Why Focus on the Infrastructural Sector?
Nigeria needs as much as $3 trillion over the next 30 years to plug the
nation’s infrastructure gap and achieve rapid sustainable development.
Andrew Alli, President/CEO, Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) September
2017
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 3

4. 5 Key Macro Political Economic Factors That Will Headline 2018
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 4
• The 2 factors of
production target & crude
oil prices are of interest
• Nigeria sustained
2.2mbpd production
target in 2017. Projections
for 2018 is 2.3mbpd
• Oil prices was $61.2 as @
Dec 31,2017
• Projections is @ $62/$63
in 2018
• Rising prices has
implications for revenue &
pump prices of petrol
products.
• It will also impact liquidity
in the system at all levels
• But Government will not
increase pump price
because of 2019
elections as it tries to
avoid issues that will
upset its goodwill with the
electorates .
• The growth potential of
the economy after
recession is of particular
interest.
• The economy grew by
0.83% in 2017 after the
economic recovery from
recession in Q2 2017.
• Most forecast expects a
growth rate of 2.1-2.5% in
2018.
• The growth was largely
due to oil prices that went
north & reduction in the
monthly food import bill
from an average of $5.5bn
to $1.9bn as @ June
2017.
• A combination of improved
oil prices & emphasis on
non-oil revenues including
non-oil exports promotion
will drive growth of the
economy in 2018
• The impact of the 2019
elections on policy making
and governance at all
levels are point of interest
• The 2019 General
elections in Nigeria is the
single most critical political
economic factor in 2018
• It will affect the economy,
governance and liquidity
at all levels
• Expect gales of capital
projects across Nigeria
and the infusion of the
economy with forex
• Expect massive rise in
insecurity and restiveness
across the country as
politicking takes center
stage
• The security business
sector will thrive very well
in 2018
• Trump trade protectionism
policy and the evolving
trade war with China will
affect Africa.
• Already bilateral aids from
the US have been
significantly slashed to
most recipient nations
because of his America
First Policy
• China is Africa’s largest
trading partner
• Nigeria is the biggest
Chinese investment
destination in Africa, the
second largest export
market and its third largest
trading partner in Africa,
• Nigeria’s trade with China
In 2017 was $13.8b
(N4.97 trillion) which is
58% of 2018 budget of
N8.612trillion
• The developing tension
between the US and
Russia over Syria is of
interest because of likely
impact on oil supply &
prices
• In accordance with an
energy cooperation
framework agreement
signed in late January
2018, Russia will have
exclusive rights to produce
oil and gas in Syria.
Beyond security, economic
interest lies at the heart of
why Russia support Syria
and the Assad Govt
• Any attack by the US on
Syria will bring Russia and
probably Iran into the
conflict.
• It has prognosis for crude
oil supply and prices
across the globe.

5. 2017-2018 Micro Economic Indicators Highlights
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 5
No Key Monetary &Fiscal Indicators 2017 2018 Variance Implications
1 Oil Production (mbpd) 2.2 2.3 5% Plus for revenue
2 Price Per Barrel ($) 44 45 2% Plus For Oil Revenue but threat to pump prices
3 Targeted GDP Growth (%) 2.5 3.5 40% Plus for economic growth and investment
4 Average Exchange Rate (N) 305 305 0% Good for planning and prices of imports
5 Inflation (Year Average %) 16.5 (15.37 in Dec 2017) 13.3 in Mar 2018 19.3% Great news for Consumer goods prices
6 MPR (%) 14% <14% Target 0% Commercial lending rates may not improve significantly
7 Commercial Lending Rate 25-35 PA 25-35 PA
8 External Reserves ($B) 34.3(Actual) 40(Target) 17% Great for stability and strength of the FOREX
9 Aggregate Revenue (N trillion) 5.08 6.61 30% Good news for National coffers and FAAC
10 Oil Revenue (N trillion) 1.99 2.44 23% Ditto Above and for External Reserves
11 Non-Oil Revenue (N trillion) 1.37 3.32 142% Great news for Non-Oil Revenue growth
12 Independent Revenue (N trillion) 0.81 0.85 5%
13 Aggregate Expenditure (N trillion) 7.44 8.61 16% Good News for Liquidity and Wetness of the economy
14 Capital Expenditure (N trillion) 2.24 2.43 8% The Opportunity window for the engineering services
15 Fiscal Deficit (%of GDP) 2.36 2.00 15% Good news for less borrowing than in 2017
16 External Borrowings (N trillion) 1.07 0.84 21% Bad news for forex flight
17 Internal Borrowings (N trillion) 1.25 0.84 33% Good news for forex but bad news for credit to biz
18 Electricity Generation 3,500MW- 3,800MW 4,000MW-5,000MW 32% Doable. Good news for savings on fossil based energy

6. Key Budget Fiscal Indicators With Impact on Business
2018 Fiscal Framework Revenue Breakdown
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7. Key Infrastructural Project Opportunities in 2018
The Nigerian Government plans to release 2.4 trillion Naira for Capital Projects in 2018!
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 7
Road, Housing and Rail
==============================================
• N35.41 billion for the National Housing Programme
• N10.00 billion for the 2nd Niger Bridge
• About N300 billion for the construction and rehabilitation of strategic roads
Power
==============================================
• The country’s power sector is expected to witness several reforms targeted at improving power
generation, transmission and distribution.
• NGN9.8 billion for the Mambilla hydro power project in Taraba state
• NGN12 billion for transmission lines and substation
Regional Spending Priorities for Peace, Security and Development
==============================================
• Capital provision for the Ministry of Niger Delta increased to N53.89 billion from the N34.20 billion
provided in 2017
• Completion of East-West Road, with a provision of about N17.32 billion in 2018

8. 20 New Road Construction Projects Worth N13b In 2018 Budget.
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No Name Of Project Project Value
1 Reconstruction Of Outstanding Sections Of Apapa-oshodi Expressway In Lagos Phase Ii Section I In Lagos State 1,400,000,000
2 Rehabilitation Of Lambata-bida Road In Niger State 1,350,000,000
3 Rehabilitation Of Ikorodu-shagamu Road In Lagos State 750,000,000
4 Ado-igede-aramoko-itawure Road In Ekiti State 450,000,000
5 Dualization Of Ibadan-ife-ilesha Road In Oyo State 700,000,000
6 Completion Of Ijebu Igbo-olomi Olunde Road In Oyo State 350,000,000
7 Counterpart Funding For The Expansion Of Abuja-kefffi Dual Carriageway & Dualization Of Keffi-akwanga-lafia-makurdi Road In Nasarawa & Benue States 2,500,000,000
8 Rehbilitation Of Okija Bridge Junction-ihiala-amapputu Uli-egbuoma-egwe Mile 4 Junction-oguta Road In Imo/Anambra State 360,000,000
9 Rehabilitation Of Gombe-biu Road In Gombe And Borno States 1,200,000,000
10 Construction Of Agaie-katcha-barro Road In Niger State 800,000,000
11 Yola-fufore-gurin Road 600,000,000
12 Kebbi-lamba-belel Road 600,000,000
13 Construction Of Ukana Akpa Utong/Iket Ntueu Road In Akwa Ibom 500,000,000
14 Construction Of Ikot Nkwo/Atan Ikot Okoro/Ikot Osurua Road With Bridge In Akwa Ibom State 750,000,000
15 Construction Of Umuerogha – Umuelema Nbubo Road In Amasa Nsulu In Isiala Ngwa North Lga, Abia State 300,000,000
16 Rehabilitation Of Ila Orangun-oke Ila Ora-ilale-ekan Road To Ekiti State Border In Osun State 500,000,000
17 Urban Renewal & Slum Upgrading Project Involving Construction &Rehabilitation Of Roads, Kerbs, Slabs & External Drainage Works In Ikare Akoko 70,000,000
18
Urban Renewal & Slum Upgrading Project Involving Comprehensive Upgrade, Redesigning, Relocation & Construction /Rehabilitation Of Roads, Culverts
And Drains In Lugbe
60,000,000
19 Urban Renewal & Slum Upgrading Project Involving Construction /Rehabilitation Of Roads, Culverts And Drains In Maiduguri 53,000,000
20 Urban Renewal &Slum Upgrading Project Involving Construction /Rehabilitation Of Roads, Culverts And Drains In Okoghuhele 65,000,000
TOTAL 13,353,000,000

9. Key Imperatives For Action For the Players in the Infrastructure Business
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 9
Brand
Development
Develop Strong Brand
Equity
Brand
Marketing
Equity
Investments
Develop Strategic
Financing Options
Debt
Financing
Project
Financing
Local
Develop Strategic
Partnerships
International Technical Business
Govt Bonds
Strategic Investment
and Portfolio
Expansion
Real Estate REITs
Other Attractive
sectors of the
Economy
Standards
Mgt
Develop Strong
Management
Capacity and
Capabilities
Project Mgt
Procurement
& Cost Mgt
Tax Mgt Technology

10. For More Details or Business Enquiries Contact
Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo
Director OD and HR Services
Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited
M:+234 0818 726 3973
Skype: olayiwola.oladapo
4/14/2018 Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo 10