February 2018 Africa Market Update

2FEBRUARY 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
A Financial Advisory
Company
FEBRUARY 2018 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
NIGERIA 5
9
13
21
RWANDA 25
KENYA
UGANDA
GHANA
TANZANIA
17
Table of Contents
NIGERIA
Central Bank holds key rates as inflation falls to 15.4%
KENYA
• Mock swearing in ignites political undercurrents
• Government’s debt structure needs re-evaluating
• Poor government uptake of expensive infrastructure bond issue
TANZANIA
• Bank of Tanzania takes swift action to contain potential banking malfeasance
• Economy still susceptible to shocks despite strong showing
At a Glance
UGANDA
• More can be done to help South Sudan
• Trade with South Africa to improve
• Current account to worsen before oil production commences
GHANA
Bank of Ghana holds benchmark rate as inflation concerns linger.
RWANDA
• Private investments rise by 48.0% in 2017, dominated by FDI
• Economy rebounds buoyed by agriculture and services sectors
http://mutuamatheka.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/001_NAIROBI_WEBREADY_MUTUA-MATHEKA-10.jpg
Nairobi, Kenya
© Mutua Matheka
Cover image:

Capital Invested by Country (USD)
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE
January 2018
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
Deal Activity by Industry (Proportions)
Deal Activity by Types (Proportions)
Snapshot of Deals
• PSG Konsult (South Africa): Steinhoff International Holdings sold 29.5 million of the company’s common stock raising USD 393.8 million – January
26th, 2018
• Boardriders (South Africa): The company received USD 600.0 million of debt financing from Deustche Bank Securities, BofA Merrill Lynch and
Macquarie Group – January 4th, 2018
• Toliara Sands (Madagascar): The entity was acquired by Base Resources for USD 75.0 million – January 23rd, 2018
• Off-Grid Electric (Tanzania): The company raised USD 55.0 million of Series D venture funding – January 18th, 2018
8.0 Billion
75.0 Million
55.0 Million
43.8 Million
6.2 Million
2.0 Million
1.1 Million
South Africa
Madagascar
Tanzania
Mauritius
Kenya
Ivory Coast
Uganda
89.8%
89.8%
5.4%
5.4%
1.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.7%
2.4%
2.4%
Secondary Transaction - Open Market Acquisition Financing
Asset Acquisition Late Stage VC
Others
91.3%
5.5%
0.7%
0.5%
2.0%
Capital markets
Apparel and Accessories
Energy Equipment
Metals and Mining
Others

In 2017, Pakistan overtook Uganda as the main destination of Kenya’s exports. By November 2017, Kenya’s exports to
Pakistan stood at USD 563.4 million compared to USD 450.2 million worth of exports to Uganda with a likelihood that full
year-on-year (between 2016 and 2017) growth of Kenya’s exports to Pakistan could be as high as 50.0%. This could signal
re-balancing of Kenya’s trade flows and has elicited growing interest in the trade flows between Kenya and Pakistan.
129
267
210
258
333
279
266
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
216
238 235
258 268
349
403
Pakistan Exports to Kenya (USD Millions)
SNAPSHOT OF TRADE FLOW: KENYA AND PAKISTAN
Trade Flow as at 2016
Kenya Exports to Pakistan (USD Millions)
71.9%
7.4%
4.8%
2.2%
1.5%
1.0%
11.2%
Cereals
TexƟle arƟcles
CoƩon
PharmaceuƟcal products
Products of the milling industry
PlasƟcs and plaƟc arƟcles
Others
97.0%
1.8%
0.7%
Coﬀee, tea and spices
Edible vegetables and tubers
Others
0.5% Inorganic Chemicals
Kenya
Pakistan
USD 403 Million
USD 266 Million
(Value of Pakistan’s exports
to Kenya in 2016)
(Value of Kenya’s exports
to Pakistan in 2016)
Source: International Trade Center

NIGERIA MARKET UPDATE
CENTRAL BANK HOLDS RATES AS ECONOMY REBOUNDS

House of Representatives Passes Petroleum Bill
On January 17th, 2018, the House of
RepresentativespassedthePetroleumIndustryand
Governance Bill, marking yet another milestone
in the journey towards reforming the oil sector.
This comes on the back of the April 2017 Senate’s
tabling of its report following review of the bill that
was first drafted in 2008. A key provision of the
bill is establishment of the Downstream Petroleum
Regulatory Agency with the mandate to, amongst
other functions:
• Set and enforce standards for design,
procurement, construction, operation and
maintenance for all plant, installations and
facilities relating to downstream petroleum
operations
• Keep registers of licenses, permits, and other
authorizations issued by the Agency or granted
by the Minister for downstream petroleum
operations, and any renewals, amendments,
suspensions and revocations thereof
Of significance is that the bill has been passed
at a time when the country has ramped up oil
production to two million barrels per day as at Q3
2017, a 26.1% growth from the same period in
2016, and should help the economy in utilization
of proceeds.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 481.1 Bln | Population: 187.0 Mln
NIGERIA
Unemployment Rate
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa
Oil Production (‘000 Barrels per Day)
New Foreign Exchange Window Boosts Investor
Inflows
The Central Bank reports that the country has
witnessed inflows to the tune of USD 13 billion
since inception of the Investors and Exporters
Foreign Exchange Window at the end of Q1 2017.
As such, we expect enhancing access to foreign
exchange to be one of the key priorities in 2018
aimed at improving the business environment.
The Central Bank is likely to incline towards a
more flexible exchange rate regime going forward
especially in view of the steady growth in foreign
exchange reserves (Please see the Economic
Outlook).
Improved Environment to boost Foreign
Investment
Nigeria is likely to witness sustained uptick in
foreign direct investment inflow as investors look
to tap into the improving business environment.
The slowdown in the non-oil segment of the
economy is, however, bound to see inflows remain
extractive sector focused.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Source: UNCTAD, StratLink Africa
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Mln)
USD 4.4 Bln
Nigeria’s foreign direct investment inflows in 2016
1,400.0
1,500.0
1,600.0
1,700.0
1,800.0
1,900.0
2,000.0
2,100.0
2,200.0
2,300.0
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
8,000.0
9,000.0
10,000.0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016

Naira to USD
Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD)
Headline Inflation
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, StratLink Africa
NIGERIA
Central Bank Holds Key Rates
The Central Bank began the year by holding key
rates constant with the benchmark rate at 14.0%;
Cash Reserve Ratio at 22.5%; Liquidity Rate at
30.0% and the asymmetric at +200.0 and -500.0
basis points around the benchmark rate. There are
two take homes from this stance:
• The economy is still under close watch even
as favorable indicators (notably the decline in
inflation and steady rise in foreign exchange
reserves) continue to buoy confidence in
the general improvement of the monetary
environment
• After flat-lining between June 2017 and
November 2017, headline inflation fell to
15.4%, a fifty bps decline from November 2017.
Be that as it may, inflation is still high above
the Central Bank’s target ceiling of 9.0% and
prodding the Central Bank into retention of the
hawkish stance
Naira Resilient against USD
The Naira averaged 360.2 units of exchange to
the greenback in the month under review, holding
firm against the dollar. With foreign exchange
reserves having soared to USD 40.8 billion as at
January 18th, 2018¹, we expect to see the local
unit continue to hold firm against major currencies
in Q1 2018.
Looking ahead, we shall be observing key macro
indicators including average lending rates,
evolution of private sector credit, economic
growth and inflation ahead of the next Monetary
Policy Committee meeting. We maintain the view
that the Central Bank will be inclined to adopt a
dovish stance within the first half of 2018.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
1
Central Bank of Nigeria
USD 40.8 Bln
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves as at January
18th, 2018, a 5.4% rise from the close of
December 2017
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
280.0
290.0
300.0
310.0
320.0
330.0
340.0
350.0
360.0
370.0
380.0
Jul-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
39.0
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Billions

Nigeria Stock Exchange 30 Index
Banking Stocks Index
Sovereign Yield Curve
Summary of T-Bill Market January 2018
Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa
Market Maintains Uptrend
The stock exchange started the year on a rally
with the 30 Index breaching the 2,000.0 mark on
January 16th, 2017. Investor optimism, buoyed by
the rebound of the economy, continues to drive
the market with the anticipation that 2018 will see
the economy accelerate faster than the second
half of 2017
General Decline in Yields
Yields were on a general decline between
December 2017 and January 2018. Appetite for
T-bill instruments was high notably for the 91 Day
which registered 435.8%. This is a likely signal of
improvement in investors’ inflation expectations
for the near term.
The Central Bank’s issuance programme for Q1
2018 shows that 78.5% of the debt being rolled
over, in the T-Bill market, will be for the 364 Day
paper with the 182 Day and 91 Day accounting for
17.6% and 3.9%, respectively.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATEDEBT MARKET UPDATE
NIGERIA
18.1%
Year-to-date change in the Nigeria Stock Exchange
30 Index as at January 23rd, 2017
Amount Offered (USD Mln) 28.5
Amount Received (USD Mln) 124.2
Performance Rate 435.8%
Tenor 91 Day
Yield 12.5%
Amount Offered (USD Mln) 73.8
Amount Received (USD Mln) 83.1
Tenor 182 Day
Yield 13.8%
Description Detail
Description Detail
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
Jan-22-2018 Dec-22-2017
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Millions
Volume (RHS) 30 Index
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
220.0
270.0
320.0
370.0
420.0
470.0
520.0
570.0
620.0
670.0
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Millions
Volume (RHS) Banking Index

GOVERNMENT’S COSTLY DEBT STRUCTURE
KENYA MARKET UPDATE

Mock Swearing in Signals Electoral Cycle
Hangover
Kenya’s political risk profile remains stable in spite
of a relatively charged environment in the recent
past following the mock swearing in ceremony of
opposition leader, Raila Odinga. Materialization
of the swearing in ceremony signals that the
country continues to reel from a political hangover
following the protracted electoral cycle that saw a
repeat presidential election take place on October
26th, 2017. Whereas the ceremony was largely
incident free and buoyed the political landscape’s
perception with regard to susceptibility to event
risk, the ensuing developments suggest both short
and long-term pressures for the country.
In the short-term, the switch off of three private
owned media houses (two of which have resumed
broadcast) has evoked concern over an indication
of constrained democratic space in what has long
been perceived as East Africa’s most democratic
political space. This has further been compounded
by arrests of members of the opposition.
In the long-term, two issues present a challenge.
One, undercurrents deep polarization along
political lines threaten to erode the confidence
that was emerging following the end of the 2017
electoral cycle. Two, concern is rife that failure
by state agencies to adhere to court orders sets
an unfavorable precedent for dispute resolution
going forward.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
KENYA
Source: 2017 World Press Freedom Index (country rankings)
Most Free
Least Free
Dollar Depreciation, Good or Bad?
The local unit appreciated to a high of KES 102.3
to the dollar on 29 January 2018, the strongest
the currency has been against the greenback since
December 2016. The American unit of exchange
has been depreciating against a wide basket of
currencies with a number of possible drivers
behind it.
Dollar depreciation against the Euro might be the
result of long term growth forecasts leaning in
favor of the European block relative to the United
States, driving currency flows towards the former.
Another possible driver behind the depreciation
of the USD is the announcement of the incoming
head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, and
the expectation that his dovish monetary policy
inclination will limit capital inflows as interest rates
will remain low. Alternatively, the current trend
might just represent the over-valuation of the
dollar, which had appreciated by 27.0% between
2014 and 2017¹, being corrected.
The weakening dollar may adversely affect trade
with the current account deficit expected to have
expanded in 2017 to 6.2% of GDP² from 5.8%
in the previous year on the back infrastructure
related imports as well as food imports to mitigate
the drought.
KES to USD
1
Federal Reserve Board: Broad trade weighted nominal dollar index
2
MPC Press Release
102.2
102.4
102.6
102.8
103.0
103.2
103.4
103.6
103.8
104.0
01-Aug-17
01-Sep-17
01-Oct-17
01-Nov-17
01-Dec-17
01-Jan-18
World Press Freedom Index
Rwanda
Uganda
Kenya
Tanzania

KENYA
Q1 Recurrent Expenditure, (USD Million)
Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt
Government Revenue (USD Million)
Source: National Treasury, StratLink Africa
Revenue Collection Shortfall
Kenya finds itself in an increasingly difficult
position, with a large stock of debt accumulating
and debt service payments that will consume large
chunks of national revenue collections.
The first quarter of the current financial year saw
a growth in ordinary revenues of 9.0% relatively
to the same quarter in the previous financial
year however, this was 8.5% short of its target.
Also, total revenue collected including grants as
a percentage of GDP fell from 4.2% in the first
quarter of the 2016/17 financial year to 3.9% in
the same period of the current financial year.
Government spending more on Interest
Recurrent expenditure on the other hand
increased by 28.0% between the first quarter of
FY 2016/17 and the same quarter of the current
financial year, overshooting its target by 4.9%,
with domestic and foreign interest payments up
by 17.3% and 133.3%, respectively, over the same
timeframe³. To provide context, combined interest
payments in Q1 FY 2017/18 amounted to 96.0%
of government net spending on development
projects over the same timeframe.
Of concern is the composition of government
debt, between September 2015 and September
2017 multilateral debt’s share of external debt
fell by 12.2% while that of more expensive
commercial bank debt increased by 11.6%. Going
forward, it would be advisable to move away from
more expensive sources of debt and towards
cheaper, longer term equivalents that will make
repayments more manageable and reduce the
burden on government revenues.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3
National Treasury
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
2,700.0
2,800.0
2,900.0
3,000.0
3,100.0
3,200.0
Q1, FY 16/17 Q1, FY 17/18
Ordinary Revenue (Actual)
Revenue and Grants, % GDP (RHS)
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
FY 2016/17 FY 2017/18
OperaƟon and Maintenance
Wages and Salaries
Pensions
Foreign Interest
DomesƟc Interest
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Sep-15 Sep-17
Bilateral MulƟlateral
Commercial Banks Suppliers Credit

Government Rejects Costly Long Term Local Debt
The month to 25th January 2018 saw yields on
the short maturity end of the yield curve inch
up slightly while those on the long term end fell
marginally.
The government’s recent issuance of a fifteen
year infrastructure bond saw only 9% of the bids
received being accepted with the market asking
for a weighted average interest rate 0.52% over
and above what the government was willing to
pay. This saw investors satisfy unmet demand via
the T-bills issued on 29 January 2018 where the
government raised USD 250.1 million, exceeding
their targeted amount, with 91.5% of bids being
accepted.
Bloomberg BVAL Yields Index
Source: CBK, StratLink Africa
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Amount offered (USD Mn) 390.6
Bids received (USD Mn) 544.5
Amount Accepted (USD Mn) 49.2
Weighted Average Interest Rate of Accepted Bids 12.51%
Market Weighted Average Interest Rate 13.03%
Infrastructure Bond (IFB 1/2018/15)
KENYA
Securities Lending and Borrowing (SLB) can
Enhance Liquidity
The NSE 20 Share price Index remained relatively
stable over the first month of the year while
trading 30.0% above levels seen at the same time
in 2017.
The Capital Markets Securities Lending and
Borrowing (SLB), and Short-Selling Regulations
2017 were recently gazetted. The new regulations
allow for one party to borrow securities from
another and return them at a pre-established price
and future date. The move aims to boost liquidity
at the NSE allowing those with long positions, such
as institutional investors, to increase earnings
from lending shares to those going short while
also encouraging the correction of over-valued
equities. Short selling, however, is susceptible to
aggressive speculation and can be damaging to
markets. Measures have been put in place, such
as collateral requirements from borrowers, to
mitigate this but enforcement of the same will be
key.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Nairobi Securities Exchange 20 Share Index
Source: Bloomberg, StratLink
Change in NSE 20 Share index
in month to 25 January 2018
-0.1%
10.0%
10.4%
10.8%
11.2%
11.6%
12.0%
12.4%
12.8%
13.2%
13.6%
14.0%
3M 1Y 3Y 5Y 8Y 10Y 20Y 30Y
25-Jan-18 22-Dec-17
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
3,500.0
3,600.0
3,700.0
3,800.0
3,900.0
4,000.0
4,100.0
4,200.0
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Millions
Volume (RHS) NSE 20 Share Index

TANZANIA MARKET UPDATE
ECONOMY POSTS STRONG GROWTH IN Q2 2017

CCM Stamps Authority in by-Election
The ruling CCM continues to stamp its authority in
Tanzania following their victory in the by-election
held earlier in the month and boycotted in some
parts by the opposition. CCM scooped all the three
parliamentary seats retaining two constituencies
and grabbing one from the opposition CHADEMA,
pointing towards the ruling party’s increasing
popularity in the face of disarray in the opposition
following the alleged truce between President
Magufuli and CHADEMA leader, Edward Lowassa,
who contested the 2015 presidential election on
a joint opposition ticket, an allegation vehemently
denied by the former Prime minister. The meeting
has angered the opposition who accuse their
leader of colluding with President Magufuli
at a time when the opposition is fighting the
President’s perceived high-handedness, putting
the opposition’s agitation in a precarious position.
Mr Lowassa’s surprise visit to State House comes
at a time of increasing exodus of politicians
crossing over from the opposition CHADEMA to
CCM amid allegations of bribery to encourage the
defections. It is for this reason that the meeting
between the opposition leader and the President
has left the opposition anxious over the former
Prime minister’s possible move back to the ruling
CCM which, he left to join opposition in the run
up to the 2015 election. The increased defections
have seen the opposition accuse the President of
trying to weaken the opposition which, is slowly
emerging as a force to reckon with, as well as,
weakening democracy and reversing the gains
made. As stated in our review report, we do not
expect much will change on the political front,
particularly, with regard to the President’s style of
leadership, which has recently come under sharp
criticism. In this regard, we reiterate our position
that the opposition need to rethink through their
strategies to remain relevant and effective in
checking government excesses.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
TANZANIA
1
Bank of Tanzania
Central Bank takes Swift Action to Contain
Banking Malfeasance
In a swift action to stave off potential banking
crisis, the Bank of Tanzania shut down five, albeit
small, banks on 4th January, 2018, that were
bound to cause instability in the banking system
owing to under-capitalization, bringing to eight
the number of banks whose business licenses
have been canceled since 2017. Despite the fact
that the banks only represent about 0.4% in the
overall banking bond, which is approximately
USD3.0 Million¹, and their effect, in the event of
collapse, may be minimal at best, the swift action
by the Bank of Tanzania is laudable for containing
a possible systemic crisis, especially considering
the effect of the near- banking crisis in Kenya in
the period 2015-16, blamed partly on delayed
intervention by the Central Bank. There was no
change in the banking stocks index after the
closure, however, the stocks witnessed delayed
reaction two days later, dipping by 9.7% before
recovering back to trade at the action price of
New Rules to Increase Capital Buffers
The Central Bank announced new rules in June
2017 requiring banks and financial institutions
to maintain a capital conservation buffer of 2.5%
of risk-weighted assets and off-balance sheet
exposures, while maintaining the minimum core
and capital ratios at 10.0% and 12.0%, respectively,
in a bid to force banks to hold more capital to
withstand financial shocks.
Tanzania Banking Index Basket
4,000.0
4,200.0
4,400.0
4,600.0
4,800.0
5,000.0
5,200.0
5,400.0
Dec-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18
9.7% dip in BI

in risk premium associated with increase in non-
performing loans and banks’ preference to low risk
government securities. In line with rebounding
credit to the private sector, credit extended to
specific economic sectors improved in the period
under review. Credit to trade and personal loans
remained dominant, accounting for 20.8% and
20.2% of total outstanding credit to the private
sector, respectively.
Tanzania Considers Policy Review to Ease Access
to Credit
The continued slowdown in access to credit has
prompted the Bank of Tanzania to consider policy
review within the first quarter of the year to
determine interest rates on loans in a bid to lower
lending costs, improve private sector lending and
reduce bad loans. The move comes just a year
after Kenya introduced a rate cap which, has been
principally blamed for the decline in credit growth.
This is Tanzania’s second attempt at controlling
lending rates after Members of Parliament
unsuccessfully sought to amend the banking
law to introduce a ceiling on commercial banks’
lending rates in 2011. We opine that the impact of
these decisions once effected will eventually ease
pressure on liquidity.
Access to Credit Picking up, but Risks Linger
Credit growth has stagnated reflecting in part
banks’ rising non-performing loans (NPLs). Annual
growth of credit to the private sector recovered
to 1.8% in November 2017 from a decline of 1.5%
in the previous month. However, the growth was
lower than 9.4% recorded in the year to November
2016². The decline was partly driven by the rise
Economy Still Susceptible to Shocks
Latest available statistics indicate that Tanzania’s
economy grew by 7.8% in the second quarter of
financial year 2018 (April-June, 2017), compared
to a revised growth rate of 8.5% observed in the
corresponding quarter of 2016, reflecting the
economy’s resilience in the face of turbulence
while towering peers in the region. While Tanzania
has posted strong growth comparatively, a sharp
fall in lending to the private sector threatens full
year (2017) growth.
Note: 2017 growth is projected to drop to 6.6%,
compared to 7.0% over the same period in the
previous year, on the back of a sharp fall in lending
to the private sector. However, government
remains optimistic of attaining a 7.0% growth in
2017
Growth of Bank’s Credit to Select Sectors
EAC Comparative Q2 GDP
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Source: Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa
Source: Various Central Banks, Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa
TANZANIA
2
Bank of Tanzania: Monthly Economic Review; December 2017
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Rwanda Kenya Uganda Tanzania
Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015
Q2 2016 Q2 2017
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Agriculture
Hotels
Manufacturing
Buiding
Transport
Personal
Trade
Nov-16 Jun-17 Nov-17

The Decline in Yields Maintained
Yields began the year on a declining note, a trend
that has been witnessed since the first half of 2017.
Inflation remains subdued and so is the overnight
rate, supporting lower yields. The 91 Day, the 182
Day and the 364 Day papers ‘yields declined by
30.0 bps, 100.0bps and 80.0bps to 3.8%, 4.4% and
7.7%, respectively, in the period under review.
Bullish run at the Bourse Slows Down
The bullish run witnessed in 2017 was extended to
2018, albeit, at a slower pace, attributed to slow
pick-up of investor activity at year start, with CRDB
and DSE recording the highest trading volumes.
The All Share Index rose by 0.6%, month-on-
month and 7.9%, year-on-year to 2377.2 units, in
the period under review.
Interbank Rates Fall
Interbank rate declined marginally to 2.8% in
January 2018 down from an average of 2.9% in
December 2017, the lowest in five months. As
reported in our review report, the Central Bank is
now pushing for further reduction in the discount
rate to 6.0% to improve the liquidity situation,
pointing towards further decline in yields.
General Rise in Sector Indices
InlinewiththebullishAllShareindex,sectorindices
recorded a general rising trend. The Industrial and
Commercial services indices remained unchanged
at 5,504.3 and 2,462.4 units, respectively. On the
other hand, the Banking Index appreciated by
2.3% to 2,516.8 units in the period under review,
reversing the 10.9% loss witnessed in the previous
month as liquidity picks up.
Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, StratLink Africa
T-Bill Yield Trend
Interbank Rate, month-on-month
Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange All Share Index
Sector Indices
TANZANIA
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
3.50%
5.50%
7.50%
9.50%
11.50%
13.50%
15.50%
17.50%
19.50%
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
91 Day 182 Day 364 Day
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
InterbankRate(Red)
VolumeinTZMillions
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2,000.0
2,050.0
2,100.0
2,150.0
2,200.0
2,250.0
2,300.0
2,350.0
2,400.0
2,450.0
2,500.0
Volume(Millions)
Price(Red)
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
Industrial
Index
Commercial
Services
Index
Banking Index
Dec-17 Jan-18

INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS TO BURDEN CURRENT ACCOUNT
UGANDA MARKET UPDATE

Uganda’s Role in South Sudan’s Conflict
The conflict in South Sudan has led to thousands
of deaths and caused many more to flee their
homes. Uganda has taken on the majority of South
Sudanese seeking refuge with over one million
residing there, while Sudan and Ethiopia host
770,110 and 421,453, respectively.
President Museveni used the recently concluded
African Union Ordinary Summit in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia to discuss matters relating to regional
stability with South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir
Mayardit. This is in sharp contrast to allegations
from a United Nations officials that Kenya and
Uganda are facilitating arms trafficking to South
Sudan. Going forward, it is evident that hosting
refugees will not suffice and President Museveni
will have to take a more active role in aiding with
the conflict in neighboring South Sudan.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
UGANDA
Source: UNHCR (figures as of Dec 2017)
Refugees and Asylum-Seekers from South Sudan
Refugees from South Sudan
in the region
2.4 million
Looking forward to Improved Trade with SA
South Africa and Uganda have taken steps towards
increasing bilateral trade and enhancing mutually
beneficial economic activity.
As of 2016, Uganda got 4.2% of all its imports from
South Africa while only sending 0.7% of its total
exports to the southern African nation.
Uganda’s Industrial Research Institution (UIRI) and
South Africa’s Centre for Scientific and Industrial
Research (CSIR) have come together to sign a
collaborative agreement to enhance research
around essential oil production in the agricultural
sector, to which each country has committed to
contribute funds.
Furthermore, MoU’s between the two nations
were signed to promote projects within the
pharmaceuticals, minerals, chemicals, textiles
and footwear industries. A Joint Trade Committee
(JTC) meeting was also held where parties agreed
to remove barriers to bilateral trade that will see
Uganda gain more from the commerce undertaken
between the two nations.
Uganda Trade with South Africa, 2016
Source: Bank of Uganda, StratLink Africa
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
DRC
Kenya
SouthSudan
Ethiopia
Sudan
Uganda
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
Exports to SA Imports from SA
USD Million (LHS)
As % of Total Exports/Imports

Infrastructure Projects to weigh on Current
Account
Uganda’s current account deficit as a percentage
of GDP narrowed quite significantly between 2011
and 2016, from a high of 9.5% to 3.0% of GDP,
respectively.
However, the current account deficit widened in
2017 to 5.6%¹ and is expected to keep expanding
in the medium term as goods imports necessary
for large infrastructure projects weigh on the
trade balance.
Source: BMI, StratLink Africa
Source: BMI, StratLink Africa
Current Account Deficit, % GDP
Current Account Balance and Growth
Goods Imports, Jan-Nov 2017
Average Oil Prices, USD/bbl
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
UGANDA
Between planned projects on rail, airports and
road networks, as well as oil and gas pipelines, the
cost of imports will rise. In the first nine months
of 2017, machinery equipment, vehicles and
accessories took the largest share of imported
goods, accounting for 20.7% of the same.
Furthermore, with petroleum products ranking
second in terms of import volumes, increasing oil
prices will raise import costs going forward until
the nation begins exporting the good, at which
point we can expect to see the current account
balance move towards positive territory.
1
This is expected. Source: BMI
7.9%
6.3%
3.0%
5.6%
2014 2015 2016 2017e
-200.0%
-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
-550.0
-450.0
-350.0
-250.0
-150.0
-50.0
50.0
150.0
250.0
350.0
450.0
550.0
Q1-15
Q2-15
Q3-15
Q4-15
Q1-16
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Current Accout Balance (USD Mn)
% Change, y-o-y (RHS)
0% 8% 16% 24%
Machinery Equipments,
Vehicles & Accessories
Petroleum Products
Vegetable Products, Animal,
Beverages, Oils
Chemical & Related
Products
EsƟmated Private Sector
Imports
Government Imports
Base Metals & Products
PlasƟcs & Products
Other Manufactured
ArƟcles
Prepared Foodstuﬀ,
Beverages & Tobacco
Others
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price

Upward Momentum Holds
The All Share index inched up in January 2018
relatively to the previous month as well as rising
steeply relatively to January 2017.
With the latest available data showing that the
economy expanded by 7.5% in the third quarter
of 2017, StratLink anticipates that output
will continue to grow strongly supported by
government infrastructure investments and low
interest rates such that equity prices will benefit in
the course of the year.
Investors Adjust Inflationary Expectations
Yields on treasury bills followed inflation’s general
downward path throughout 2017 with rates on 91
day, 182 day and 364 day papers falling by 4.9%,
5.4% and 4.9%, respectively, between January
and December. Interestingly, the spread on yields
between the one year and three month maturity
treasury bills went from 0.3% in January 2017 to
2.3% in April and back down to 0.3% in December.
This is a likely result of changing inflation
expectations whereby anticipated future
increases in price growth in the second quarter
required a premium be paid to investors buying
longer maturity papers. Whereas, once inflation
began falling in the second half of the year and
investor expectations of future inflation were
readjusted downwards, a much smaller premium
was necessary to entice one to buy longer term
papers as real returns down the line became more
prominent. However, with economic activity likely
to pick up in the course of the year and imports
becoming expensive, inflationary pressure is
poised to resurge and drive yields back up.
All Share Index
Inflation and T-Bill Rates
UGANDA
All Share Index month – on –
month change as at
25 January 2018
All share index year – on –
year change as at
25 January 2018
1.3%
47.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
91 Day 182 Day
364 Day Headline InﬂaƟon
1,600.0
1,650.0
1,700.0
1,750.0
1,800.0
1,850.0
1,900.0
1,950.0
2,000.0
2,050.0
2,100.0
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18

BANK OF GHANA HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE AMIDST INFLATION JITTERS
GHANA MARKET UPDATE

GHANA
Government Mulls Slashing Cocoa Price Paid to
Cocoa Farmers
The Ministry of Finance has indicated the
government is considering slashing the price it
pays farmers of Cocoa¹ following the plunge in
international market price witnessed at the end of
Q4 2017. Two things are worth considering in light
of this:
• This is consistent with the fiscal
rationalization undertaken by the new
administration with actual expenditure
in the first half of 2017 reported to have
stood at 84.0% of the amount that was
programmed
• We expect this policy stance to prevail
through 2018 as the government looks to
address both the fiscal deficit and mounting
debt (Please see the Debt Market Update
for views on debt issuance) with a view to
catalyzing sustainable economic growth. In
its Mid-Year Budget Review, the government
revised its projection for revenue and grants
downwards, albeit marginally, prodding it
into more frugal expenditure. As indicated
in our January 2018 issue, we maintain close
watch on the country’s oil proceeds given
the uptick in price and how this influences
expenditure
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
1
Bloomberg Jan 17th, 2018
Cocoa Price (USD per Tonne)
Source: Ghana Statistical Service, StratLink Africa
Slash in Electricity Tariff Boosts Business
The government announced a 14.0% reduction
in electricity tariffs for non-residential consumers
effective January 1st, 2018. This is set to present a
major benefit for the business community and add
on to the country’s favorable energy environment.
Some of the factors that make the country’s energy
environment attractive are:
• Existence of a feed-in-tariff framework:
Feed-in-tariffs are published in accordance
with the Renewable Energy Act (2011). This
is a key attraction for private investment
into the energy sector
• Provision of renewable energy quotas: The
legal framework provides that the state will
determine the share of total electricity to
be generated from renewable energy, and
guarantees that electricity generated within
this target by renewable energy producers
will be purchased in full. This provision is
key for attraction of impact investment
targeting the energy sector
One area that will continue to present a challenge
going forward is the rise in transmission losses.
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Transmission Losses
Source: Ministry of Finance Ghana, StratLink Africa1,750.0
1,800.0
1,850.0
1,900.0
1,950.0
2,000.0
2,050.0
2,100.0
2,150.0
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Transmission Losses (GWh)
Transmission Losses %

GHANA
Bank of Ghana Cautious over Inflation
Bank of Ghana retained the benchmark rate
at 20.0% in its January 22nd, 2018 meeting
citing concern over inflation developments with
marginal uptick witnessed since the last meeting.
This corroborates our view (January 2018 Africa
Market Update) in which we tabled a case for
more cautious monetary policy expansion in 2018
due to inflation trending above the central bank’s
target ceiling (10.0%). As shown in the heat map
below, the Greater Accra, Upper West and the
Ashanti regions continue to present pressure
points for inflation.
Ghana Inflation Heat Map
Headline Inflation
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Cedi Cedes Ground to the Greenback
The Cedi also opened 2018 facing increased
pressure from the greenback, a fact that could
have played out in informing Bank of Ghana’s
cautious position. This pressure is likely to have
stemmed from the decline in the price of both gold
and cocoa, two of the country’s key exports. Cocoa
closed 2017 at USD 1,905 per tonne, a 16.0%
decline from January 2017 whilst gold closed the
year at USD 1,266.6 per tonne, 3.7% lower than
its September 2017 peak. The country’s current
account deficit, at USD 2.1 billion in December
2017, has shown signs of widening after a period
of steady contraction.
Cedi’s depreciation, year-on-year,
as at January 27th, 2018
Cedi’s depreciation, year-to-date,
as at January 27th, 2018
-4.8%
-0.8%
Select African Countries Currencies’ Exchange to
USD (YTD)
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Upper East 12.2% 9.8% 10.8% 9.8%
Northern 12.7% 11.6% 11.0% 10.4%
Volta 11.2% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5%
Eastern 12.9% 12.3% 12.3% 11.4%
Western 13.3% 12.6% 12.6% 11.7%
Central 12.8% 12.3% 12.3% 11.4%
AshanƟ 13.4% 13.0% 12.5% 12.1%
Upper West 13.9% 13.4% 13.3% 12.3%
Greater
Accra 13.9% 13.6% 13.0% 12.5%
NaƟonal 13.1% 12.6% 12.3% 11.7%
10.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
South African Rand
Botswana Pula
Zambia Kwacha
Rwanda Franc
Kenya Shilling
Tanzania Shilling
Ghanaian Cedi
Gambia Dalasi
Mozambique MeƟca

GHANA
T-Bill Yields
Q1 2018 Use of Debt Proceeds
Source: Bank of Ghana, StratLink Africa
Source: Bank of Ghana, StratLink Africa
The government’s debt issuance calendar for Q1
2018 reveals a 36.0%, to USD 2.5 billion, decline
compared to the same period in 2017. This
suggests the government is keen to tame the rise
in debt which stands at 68.7% of GDP.
Market Sustains Rally
The market rallied through January 2018 signaling
investors’ bullish sentiment around improvements
in the overall macroeconomic environment.
Of note, banking stocks rallied 18.3% YTD as at
January 26th, 2018 in what we assess was buoyed
by confidence in Bank of Ghana’s decision to raise
capital requirements with a view to strengthen
the sector. The banking sector is plagued by a
relatively high non-performing loss ratio than
peer economies, a fact that has presented a major
source of concern for investors.
Yields Flatten on Inflation’s Upward Nudge
Whereas liquidity continued to rise in the money
market through December 2017, with the
interbank rate closing the year at 19.3% compared
to 25.3% at the start of the year, yields on the
short-term end of the market rose marginally
before flattening out at the tail end of 2017. We
view this as a reflection of investor sentiment
around inflation given the uptick witnesses in Q4
2017.
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite
Index, year-on-year, gain as at
January 26th, 2018
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite
Index, year-to-date, gain as at
January 26th, 2018
69.5%
16.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
91 Day 182 Day
Rollover Funds State Financing
0.0
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
1,500.0
1,700.0
1,900.0
2,100.0
2,300.0
2,500.0
2,700.0
2,900.0
3,100.0
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Millions
Volume (RHS) Composite Index

RECOVERY IN GROWTH SUPPORTED BY IMPROVEMENT IN AGRICULTURE AND INVESTMENTS
RWANDA MARKET UPDATE

Kagame and Magufuli seek to Enhance Trade
Ties
Rwanda and Tanzania are seeking to increase
bilateral trade ties following a one-day state visit
by President Kagame, his third to the country in
two years. Business between the two countries has
recently recovered, after declining consecutively
for three years by almost 50.0%, between 2011
to 2014, to USD 28.5 Million. The neighbours are
partnering on the construction of the Standard
Gauge Railway (SGR) from Isaka to Kigali as part of
the efforts of connecting Rwanda to Dar es Salaam
port; and improving the business environment
by reducing the cost of doing business ─ cargo
through the Dar es Salaam port to Rwanda rose to
unprecedented amounts of 950 tonnes in 2017.
The SGR should also help narrow the gap between
exports and imports as seen below.
Eyes on Kagame as he takes over as AU Chair
Rwanda took over the chairmanship of the African
Union (AU) on January 1st, 2018, with the tough
task of steering the union towards self-reliance.
Besides heavy dependence on aid, we assert that
faltering regional integration within different blocs
under the AU remains the biggest challenge for
regional blocs under the AU and this is bound to
form the basis of Kagame’s reforms.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
RWANDA
RDB Posts Increased Private Investment in 2017
The harsh macro environment notwithstanding,
Rwanda continues reaping from its conducive
doing business environment after the country
registered investments worth USD1.7 Billion, both
local and foreign, reflecting an increase of 48.0%,
compared to that registered in 2016, evidence of
Rwanda’s increasing investment allure. Bugesera
Airport was the largest individual investment in
the year at USD 398.7 Million.
Mining, Construction and Real Estate top Foreign
Investments
Construction, mining and infrastructure sectors
received the lion’s share of the total investments
of USD 637.7 Million, USD 267.2 Million and USD
202.7Millionrepresenting38.0%,16.0%and12.0%
of the total investments registered by the Rwanda
Investment Board, respectively. With regard to
source, foreign direct investments dominated with
about 62.2% of the total investment, while local
investors and joint ventures represented about
28.1% and 9.6%, respectively.
Rwanda targets to reach upper middle income
status by 2035, thus, the country introduced a
new investment code in 2015 to boost investment
opportunities. Likewise, Rwanda has also opened
strategic business offices in different countries
with the aim of promoting investments in those
countries.
Source: National Institute of Statics of Rwanda, StratLink Africa
Trade Between Rwanda and Tanzania
FPI per Select Sectors
38.0% 16.0% 12.0% 34.0%
Source: Rwanda Development Board, StratLink Africa
Construction Mining Infrastructure Others
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Exports Imports

grew by 31.0% while imports by 4.0%. The strong
improvement in exports compared to a modest
rise in imports, has seen an increase in foreign
reserve cover to above four months form 3.6 in
2015. Hence, Rwanda should focus on promoting
the Made-in-Rwanda initiative to boost local
production as well as consumption.
Note: In June 2016, in the face of external shocks
to the economy, the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) approved an 18 months Standby
Credit Facility worth USD 204.0 million to offset
the impact of low commodity prices by boosting
Rwanda’s foreign reserves. In this regard, the (IMF)
has approved the third and final disbursement of
a Special Credit Facility worth USD 25.8 Million to
support the country’s foreign reserves.
We assert that it is imperative for Rwanda to
balance its trade not only for reducing trade deficit
but also to boost fragile revenue collections.
Consequently, Rwanda is looking to overhaul its
income tax law in a bid to broaden the tax base
and boost revenue collections besides aligning tax
laws to East African Community policies, requiring
all professionals to pay 30.0% corporate tax. The
move comes amid projections from government
that tax revenue-to-GDP ratio is set to decline to
14.9% in financial years 2019-2020, from 15.6% in
financial year 2017.
Q3 2017 Economic Growth Accelerates
The economy accelerated by 8.0% in Q3, 2017
compared to a 5.4% growth in the same quarter in
2016, and up from 4.0% growth in the preceding
quarter, a steady rebound from a paltry 1.7%
growth registered in the first quarter of 2017. The
growth was buoyed by growth in Agriculture which
grew by 8.0% up from 1.0% growth in Q3 2016 and
Services which, accelerated by 10.0% up from a
growth of 7.0% in a similar quarter in 2016. The
growth in Agriculture was boosted by food crops
which rose by 11.0% due to good harvest in the
period under review compared to a slight growth
of 1.0% in the same period in 2016. Industry, on
the other hand, expanded from 5.0% to 6.0%,
quarter-on-quarter.
Mid-2016 to mid-2017, witnessed a slow-down in
Rwanda’sgrowth,bottomingoutat3.4%.However,
we expect that the economy is set for a rebound
as private and public and private investments pick
up and agriculture becomes more productive,
supported by accommodative monetary policy as
well as improving weather conditions and export
diversification. These should lead to reduced
external imbalances as export prices pick up.
In the period under review, Rwanda’s exports
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
RWANDA
Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, StratLink Africa
Source: National Institute of Statistics, StratLink Africa
Real GDP vs Sectoral Growth Trade Balance (USD/Mlns)
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
GDP Agriculture
Services Industry
-350.0
-250.0
-150.0
-50.0
50.0
150.0
250.0
350.0
450.0
550.0 2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
Exports Imports Trade Balance

RWANDA
Source: National Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa
Source: NISR, StratLink Africa
T-Bill Yields
Franc vs USD, month-on-month
Yields Maintain Downtrend
Short-term yields in the money market maintained
a downtrend in January, mimicking the trend from
the previous year. The 91 Day, the 182 Day and the
364 Day papers’ yields fell marginally by 0.5%, 0.3%
and 0.2% to 6.3%, 7.5% and 8.4%, respectively, in
the period under review. The yields should trend
south in the medium term supported by subdued
inflation and increasing liquidity.
Maintaining trend, the Franc remained resilient
againstthegreenbackinJanuary2018,appreciating
by 0.6% month-on-month and depreciating by
3.0%, year-on-year, primarily supported by the
Central bank’s prudent policy decisions relatively
tight liquidity conditions in the money market
thought the year.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Rwanda All Share Index, year-on-year
Bourse makes a Slow Start to the Year
The bourse started the year on a slow note,
shedding off 0.3% to close the month at 133.1
units. Investors have shown increased interest
in higher yielding fixed income securities in an
environment of tight liquidity conditions.
Proposals to Encourage Foreign Investments
Government has proposed several incentives
to encourage foreign investor participation
at the bourse. The proposals are in form of a
draft Income Tax Bill that proposes to lower the
corporate tax rate from 30.0% to 25.0% for five
years for companies that float at least 40.0% of
their capital on the Rwanda Stock Exchange. While
those that float more than the threshold will pay a
corporate tax of 10.0%.
All Share Index year-
on-year change
All Share Index month-on-
month change
4.6%
-0.3%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
91 Day 182 Day 364 Day
840.0
845.0
850.0
855.0
860.0
Dec-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Jan-18
Jan-18
123.0
125.0
127.0
129.0
131.0
133.0
135.0
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18

StratLink in the News: A look into Kenya’s Post-Election Environment
Scaling impact finance in Kenya – A look at Micro, Small and Medium enterprises
–Inthisarticle,theStratLinkGrowthDivisionseekstoprovideanuancedperspective
on how impact funding can re-angle its focus in Kenya
Review of Kenya’s August 2017 general election
– In this interview with CGTN Africa, we look into the dynamics that shaped Kenya’s
August 2017 general election and how it impacted the business environment
Thoughts on Kenya’s retail market
– In this article, StratLink sought to scratch beyond the surface view of Kenya’s
besieged retail market (with leading chains Nakumatt and Uchumi in dire straits
at the time) and highlight the underlying strength that still makes it one of Africa’s
most attractive retail markets
Ghana won’t be able to fix its economy using last decade’s rule book
– In this article, we explore the new administration in Ghana and interrogate its
promise of fiscal expansion to bolster economic growth
StratLink continues to make contributions to leading media outlets on thematic issues shaping Sub-Saharan Africa.
Below are some of the pieces published, and commentary made, in 2017:

STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM
Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner
konstantin.makarov@stratLinkglobal.com
Dina Farfel – Partner
dfarfel@stratLinkglobal.com
Julio De Souza - Director of SME and Impact Finance
julio.desouza@stratLinkglobal.com
Kyle Drexler – Associate
kyle.drexler@stratLinkglobal.com
Benson Njeri – Analyst
benson.njeri@stratLinkglobal.com
Julians Amboko – Senior Research Analyst
julians.amboko@stratLinkglobal.com
Gianluca Storchi – Senior Research Analyst
gianluca.storchi@stratLinkglobal.com
Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst
sophia.sifuma@stratLinkglobal.com
Ahmed Wurie - Analyst
ahmed.wurie@stratLinkglobal.com
Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design
peter.mutisya@stratLinkglobal.com
STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE
StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company
with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and
Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in
the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and
partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing
quality services and access to capital. We recognize
opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing
middle market companies with leading global investment
banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the
importance of making informed decisions and leverage our
regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients.
Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic
research
Within our purview of coverage are nine economies –
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana,
Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and
analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic
environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct
sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on
market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well
as potential challenges.
Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data
Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile
team traversing the fields of economics and finance with
qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The
team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such
as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson
One Research, World Economics and The World Today.
As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in
an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to
relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central
Banks, ministries and state departments.
Authoritative voice on regional economics
StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary
and opinion on issues pertaining to Sub-Saharan African
economies and investment. Reputable media including
CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg
have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis.
Where we are based
Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in
New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur.

ContactDetails
STRATLINK AFRICA
StratLink - Africa, Limited.
Delta Riverside, Block 4,
4th Floor, Riverside Drive,
Nairobi, Kenya
nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
+254202572792

February 2018 Africa Market Update

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February 2018 Africa Market Update