This presentation looks at future demand for TV channels in Africa and the implications for future spectrum allocation.

1. AfriSWOG –
An Outline Assessment of the
Growth of the Broadcast
Market in Sub-Saharan Africa
and its implications for
spectrum allocation
Russell Southwood, CEO, Balancing Act
www.balancingact-africa.com

2. Methodology - 1

3. Methodology -2

4. Existing TV Channels
2011 2015 exc DTT 2015 with DTT
292 429 891
0
50
100
150
200
250
Angola
EquatorialGuinea
Eritrea
Gambia
Lesotho
SaoTomeandPrincipe
Seychelles
Swaziland
Zimbabwe
Botswana
CapeVerde
Chad
SierraLeone
Coted'Ivoire
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Benin
Liberia
BurkinaFaso
Togo
Ethiopia
Niger
Senegal
SouthAfrica
Maurius
Zambia
Reunion
Namibia
Ghana
CentralAfricanRepublic
Guinea
Burundi
Cameroon
Tanzania
Malawi
Rwanda
Madagascar
Mozambique
Kenya
Uganda
Congo-Brazzaville
Gabon
DRC
Nigeria
50% of 44 countries have less than 5 TV channels

5. 2 Key Factors for Growth of TV
Channels
Liberalisation: March 2014, 25 out of 48 Sub-
Saharan African countries had completely
liberalised (both radio and TV), 15 partially
liberalised (radio only) and 8 not liberalised 4 may
liberalise: Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Mali and
Zimbabwe
Pay TV DTT Operators – Helping with DTT
Process. Star Times JVs with Govt broadcasters.
GoTV, DStv’s low cost, DTT bouquet as a
response. Two of them in francophone Africa

6. Projected Growth - 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Angola
Benin
Botswana
BurkinaFaso
Burundi
CapeVerde
Cameroon
Chad
CentralAfrican
Congo-Brazzaville
DRC
Coted'Ivoire
EquatorialGuinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Maurius
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Reunion
Rwanda
SaoTomeandPrincipe
Senegal
Seychelles
SierraLeone
SouthAfrica
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Exis ng
Low Est
High Est

7. Projected TV Channels - 1
!
!"
#"
$!"
$#"
%!"
%#"
&'()*+"
,-'.'"
,)/01+'+"
,234.'+"5+0)"
,232'6."
7+8-"9-36-"
7+:-3))'"
7;+6"
7-'/3+*"&<3.=+'"
7)'()>,3+??+@.**-"
AB7"
7)/-"6CD@).3-"
EF2+/)3.+*"G2.'-+"
E3./3-+"
E/;.)8.+"
G+H)'"
G+:H.+"
G;+'+"
G2.'-+"
G2.'-+>,.00+2"
I-'J+"
K-0)/;)"
K.H-3.+"
L+6+(+0=+3"
L+*+1."
L+*."
L+23.M20"
L)?+:H.F2-"
N+:.H.+"
N.(-3"
N.(-3.+"
B-2'.)'"
B1+'6+"
O+)"P):-"+'6"Q3.'=.8-"
O-'-(+*"
O-J=;-**-0"
O.-33+"K-)'-"
O)2/;"&<3.=+"
O1+?.*+'6"
P+'?+'.+"
P)()"
R(+'6+"
S+:H.+"
S.:H+H1-"
K) 1 "E0/"
T.(; "E0/"

8. Projected Growth 2
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nigeria
DRC
Gabon
Congo-
Kenya
Uganda
Mozambique
Madagascar
Rwanda
Malawi
Tanzania
Cameroon
Burundi
CentralAfrican
Guinea
Coted'Ivoire
Ghana
Countries with demand of 50+
channels
Low est

9. MUX Requirements - 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Angola
Benin
Botswana
BurkinaFaso
Burundi
CapeVerde
Cameroon
Chad
CentralAfrican
Congo-Brazzaville
DRC
Coted'Ivoire
EquatorialGuinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Maurius
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Reunion
Rwanda
SaoTomeandPrincipe
Senegal
Seychelles
SierraLeone
SouthAfrica
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Low Est
High Est

10. MUX Requirements - 2! " # $" #%&' ( ) %*! $" #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - ./01 - , 1.23/ 23/.45- 45- .34/
, %6#%78' ( ( 9:; +- %6#%78' ( ( 9:; +- %6#%78' ( ( 9:; /+%6#%78' ( ( 9:;
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $" #%&' ( ) %! $" #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9 BC' =9
+%D $E%% &9( F( G%&>A;H' ( ' G%&I =J F( ' %#' ;>G%7' C9%! 9=) 9G%78' ) G%KLI ' A>=F' :%MI F( 9' N%K=FA=9' N%M' OPF' N%MI F( 9' .&F;;' I N%Q9;>A8>N%QFP9=F' N%
R>=%+, %@>I ( A=F9;S D ' :FN%B' >%T>O9N%B9U@89::9;N%BF9==' %Q9>( 9N%BH' VF:' ( ) N%T>W>
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $" #%&' ( ) %! $" #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9 BC' =9
/%D $E;%% X( W>:' G%KA8F>CF' G%YFW9=G%B9( 9W' :
R>=%- %@>I ( A=F9;S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $" #%&' ( ) %! $" #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9 BC' =9
0%D $E;%% D ' I =FAFI ;G%69I ( F>( G%Z' OPF' G%ZFOP' PH9
R>=%- %@>I ( A=F9;S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $" #%&' ( ) %! $" #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9
- %D $E;%% Y' OFPF' G%B>I A8%XR=F@'
R>=%/%@>I ( A=F9;S

11. MUX requirements - 3
!
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9 BC' =9
0%D $ E; %% D ' I =FAFI ; G%69I ( F>( G%Z' O PF' G%ZFO P' PH 9
R>=%- %@>I ( A=F9; S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9
- %D $ E; %% Y ' O FPF' G%B>I A8%XR=F@'
R>=%/%@>I ( A=F9; S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) BC' =9
2%D $ E; %% M8' ( '
R>=%+%@>I ( A=F9; S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) <=>?9@A9) BC' =9
4%D $ E; %% 7>A9%) [*>F=9G%MI F( 9'
R>=%/%@>I ( A=F9; S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) <=>?9@A9) BC' =9
, %D $ E; %% &I =I ( ) FG%7' O 9=>>( G%79( A=' :%XR=F@' ( %69CI P:F@
R>=%0%@>I ( A=F9; S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) <=>?9@A9)
3%D $ E; %% D ' :' H FG%6H ' ( ) ' G%T' ( V' ( F'
R>=%0%@>I ( A=F9; S
! " # $ " #%&' ( ) %*! $ " #%&' ( ) %! $ " #%&' ( ) %! %
+, - /01 - , 1 23/ 23/ 45- 34/
<=>?9@A9) <=>?9@A9)
<>A9( AF' ::U
5%D $ E; %>=%O >=9%% 7>( W>.&%]++^G%_ 67%]+, ^G%M' P>( %]+0^G%` 9( U' %]+/^G%D ' ) ' W' ; @' =%]5^G%D >V' O PFL I 9%]+1^G%Y FW9=F' %]+5^G%$ W' ( ) ' %]++^%
R>=%3%@>I ( A=F9; S

12. Case Study 1 - Nigeria
 65% of population have access to TV. Two largest markets
are Lagos and Abuja
 Key Free-To-Air TV players in Lagos based on 2011 data
were as follows: Galaxy (16%), Silverbird (16%), TVC (16%),
Channels TV (15%), AIT (14%) and NTA (4%). TVC is
relatively new entrant in the market. In Abuja, AIT and NTA
are the two key players by audience share.
 Pay TV: According to Balancing Act estimates based on
industry-obtained data, there are over 1.8 m subscribers.
 Four signal carriers: Pinnacle Communications, Details
Nigeria Ltd (the signal carrier for DStv’s DTT Pay TV
operation), StarTimes and MTS Communications. Transition
still in progress

13. Case Study 2 - Senegal
 Two biggest cities: Dakar and Toubia
 Five main players: RTS1, 2STV, TFM, Walf TV and RDV
 International operators TV5 and Canal+ get significant
audience share
 Pay TV: Estimated 200,000-250,000
 RTS talking of launching HD channels
 Single signal carrier EXCAF. Transition in progress.
 Currently 60% population coverage but intend to make
national
 Set-Top box subsidy scheme discussed

14. Case Study 3 – South Africa
Africa’s wealthiest country but relatively few FTA
broadcasters. Two key players: SABC with 3
channels and eTV
Pay TV. DStv 5.4 million subscribers
Single signal carrier: Sentech. Transition in
progress. 85% DTT coverage soon, remaining
16% by satellite
Population affluent enough to support HD channels

15. Conclusions
 25 countries where spectrum could be freed up. On low
estimates, 17 require only one MUX, 7 require 2-3 MUXs, 1 4
MUXs. Planning for 4 MUXs overstates requirement
 Governments might want to have the ability to able to award
above and below 694 MHz to mobile use.
 VHF Band: Would accommodate 4 MUX countries. On basis
of Finland and South Africa might give 2-3 additional MUXs
 Demand for over 8 MUXs: Congo Brazzaville, DRC, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria and Uganda.
Issue of DRC and Congo-B
 Satellite not yet an alternative to DTT for any great number
 Three sets of technology needing consideration: T-DAB
radio, 3DTV and Ultra-High Definition