All, I must first apologize for the confusion caused with the MS Excel "Forecasting" Template I provided for this assignment. I used the template in a previous offering of this OPS/571 course, where the template worked just fine. However, it appears that this not the case for this offering of OPS/571.
· I have seen several students' concerns posted through Personal Messages, Threaded Comments, and other means, seeking assistance with using the Template. It turns out, that feedback form one of your classmates identified that the template only works with MS Excel 2016, and not with earlier versions.
· In this same situation, there have also been some, who have been able to complete the assignment using the template provided. What is not known, is if those who were successful, were using MS Excel 2016 or not?
I have labored for several days, attempting to make corrections to the template, which would allow for the assignment criteria as presented in the instructions; to no avail.
Therefore, I developed a new template, which will allow for data to be entered into Columns "A" & "B", which will populate Column "C" with a forecasted value, based on the historical (Time-based) entries in "A" & "B".
· Column "A" must use time type data entries: Days, Months, Years, Minutes, Seconds, Hours...Etc.
· Column "B" must use Numerical data entries: Quantities Sold, Admissions, Monetary Amounts, Widgets Produced...Etc.
DO NOT make any changes to Cells in Column "C". I have taken the formula and incorporated it to calculate a future (forecast) for the historical "Time" and Numerical" data entered into Columns "A" & "B".
Forecasting will not show for Column "C", Cells C3 thru C14, as you will require more data points in Columns "A" & "B" than just the A3 thru A14, and B3 thru B14. However, the Template is set up to provide a forecast out to 8-years (as currently formated for monthly speeding ticket issued by law enforcement).
Notice Column "C" Cells C15 thru C38, shows "C15 - C26" as trending to higher numbers (more tickets issued); this could have multiple meanings. "C27 - C38" as trending to lower numbers (less tickets issued); this could have multiple meanings as well.
NOTE: "C39 - C98", the trend is definitely indicating decreasing numbers, but that is because there is no data entered in Column "B" for those corresponding forecasts.
Lastly, I am not interested in the Confidence Intervals, as this function is not working in earlier versions of MS Excel. So, use the data you have collected, enter into the appropriate cells in Columns "A" & "B"...DO NOT ENTER DATA INTO COLUMN "C".
The expectation is that you are able to present a compelling narrative from the Quantitative data, into a Qualitative understanding of what the forecast is presenting, and what a company might do to posture the business direction for success or minimizing failures as a result.
CARVER_1_.xlsx
WorksheetCARVERAsset Name:GW BridgeAddress:City:NYCTime needed to replace asset, if .
HMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptx
All, I must first apologize for the confusion caused with the MS E.docx
1. All, I must first apologize for the confusion caused with the MS
Excel "Forecasting" Template I provided for this assignment. I
used the template in a previous offering of this OPS/571 course,
where the template worked just fine. However, it appears that
this not the case for this offering of OPS/571.
· I have seen several students' concerns posted through Personal
Messages, Threaded Comments, and other means, seeking
assistance with using the Template. It turns out, that feedback
form one of your classmates identified that the template only
works with MS Excel 2016, and not with earlier versions.
· In this same situation, there have also been some, who have
been able to complete the assignment using the template
provided. What is not known, is if those who were successful,
were using MS Excel 2016 or not?
I have labored for several days, attempting to make corrections
to the template, which would allow for the assignment criteria
as presented in the instructions; to no avail.
Therefore, I developed a new template, which will allow for
data to be entered into Columns "A" & "B", which will populate
Column "C" with a forecasted value, based on the historical
(Time-based) entries in "A" & "B".
· Column "A" must use time type data entries: Days, Months,
Years, Minutes, Seconds, Hours...Etc.
· Column "B" must use Numerical data entries: Quantities Sold,
Admissions, Monetary Amounts, Widgets Produced...Etc.
DO NOT make any changes to Cells in Column "C". I have
taken the formula and incorporated it to calculate a future
(forecast) for the historical "Time" and Numerical" data entered
into Columns "A" & "B".
Forecasting will not show for Column "C", Cells C3 thru C14,
as you will require more data points in Columns "A" & "B" than
just the A3 thru A14, and B3 thru B14. However, the Template
2. is set up to provide a forecast out to 8-years (as currently
formated for monthly speeding ticket issued by law
enforcement).
Notice Column "C" Cells C15 thru C38, shows "C15 - C26" as
trending to higher numbers (more tickets issued); this could
have multiple meanings. "C27 - C38" as trending to lower
numbers (less tickets issued); this could have multiple meanings
as well.
NOTE: "C39 - C98", the trend is definitely indicating
decreasing numbers, but that is because there is no data entered
in Column "B" for those corresponding forecasts.
Lastly, I am not interested in the Confidence Intervals, as this
function is not working in earlier versions of MS Excel. So, use
the data you have collected, enter into the appropriate cells in
Columns "A" & "B"...DO NOT ENTER DATA INTO COLUMN
"C".
The expectation is that you are able to present a compelling
narrative from the Quantitative data, into a Qualitative
understanding of what the forecast is presenting, and what a
company might do to posture the business direction for success
or minimizing failures as a result.
CARVER_1_.xlsx
WorksheetCARVERAsset Name:GW
BridgeAddress:City:NYCTime needed to replace asset, if
possibleAdditional CI sectors affected by loss of
assetState:Zip:Select Value:County:Owner:Sector:Susceptibility
of asset to damage or destructionImpact of loss of assetSelect
Value:Users Affected:Economic Loss and Rebuild Cost ($):Is
the asset an "icon" representing more than a physical
structurePotential Deaths from Attack:Select Value:Ease of
3. entry into the asset to cause its damage or destructionPercentage
of "back-up" capacity to offset the loss of this assetSelect
Value:Select Value:SCORE:1225
CRITICALITY
ACCESSIBILITY
RECOVERABILITY
VULNERABILITY
ESPYABILITY
REDUNDANCY
Food & Agriculture
Banking & Finance
Chemical
Commercial Facilities
Communications
Critical Manufacturing
Dams
Defense Industrial Base
Emergency Services
Energy
INTERDEPENDENCY
Government Facilities
Healthcare & Public Health
Information Technology
National Monuments & Icons
Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste
Postal & Shipping
Transportation Systems
Water
Menu
ItemsSECTORVALUECRITICALITYVALUEVALUEVALUEFo
od & Agriculture1Less than 1000 people1Less than $10
million1N/A1Banking & Finance2More than 1000 people2Less
than $25 million2102Chemical3More than 10,000 people3Less
than $50 million3503Commercial Facilities4More than 25,000
people4Less than $100 million41004Communications5More
than 50,000 people5Less than $250 million52505Critical
4. Manufacturing6More than 100,000 people6Less than $500
million65006Dams7More than 500,000 people7Less than $750
million710007Defense Industrial Base8More than 1 million
people8Less than $1 billion850008Emergency Services9More
than 2.5 million people9Less than $25
billion9100009Energy10More than 5 million people10Less than
$50 billion105000010Government
Facilities11100,000+11Healthcare & Public
Health12Information Technology13National Monuments &
Icons14Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste15Postal &
Shipping16Transpostation
Systems17ACCESSIBILITYVALUERECOVERABILITYVALU
EVULNERABILITYVALUEWater18Patrolled1Less than 1
month1Special Hardening1Perimeter Fencing2More than 1
month2Massive2Armed Security3More than 3 months3Building
Purpose Unknown to Public3Unarmed Security4More than 6
months4Operations Structurally Dispersed4Access
Control5More than 1 year5Concrete/Stone5Alarm System6More
than 2 years6Structural Steel6Locked Area7More than 3
years7Flammable/Explosive7Open to Public8More than 4
years8Minor Metal Frame8No Control9More than 5 years9Wood
Design9Irreplacable10No Security
Design10ESPYABILITYVALUEREDUNDANCYVALUELocall
y significant, non-government1100%1Locally significant,
government290%2State icon only380%3State icon +
function470%4Regional icon only560%5Regional icon +
function650%6National icon only740%7National icon +
function830%8World icon only920%9World icon +
function1010%100%11
ResultsAsset Name:GW
BridgeAddress:0City:NYCState:0Zip:0County:0Owner:0Sector:
17CriticalityUsers affected625Economic loss9125Potential
deaths510Total160AccessibilityValue70.98RecoverabilityValue
515VulnerabilityValue90.99EspyabilityValue80.955Redundancy
Value60.75SCORE:121.60850625Food &
AgricultureTRUE1Banking &
5. FinanceFALSE0Chemical0Commercial
FacilitiesFALSE0CommunicationsTRUE1Critical
Manufacturing0Dams0Defense Industrial
BaseTRUE1Emergency
ServicesTRUE1EnergyFALSE0Government
Facilities0Healthcare & Public Health0Information
Technology0National Monuments & Icons0Nuclear Reactors,
Materials & Waste0Postal & ShippingTRUE1Transpostation
SystemsFALSE0Water0INTERDEPENDENCY5
TablesCRITICALITYVALUESCOREVALUESCOREVALUESC
ORELess than 1000 people11Less than $10
million11N/A10More than 1000 people23Less than $25
million231021More than 10,000 people35Less than $50
million355033More than 25,000 people410Less than $100
million41010045More than 50,000 people515Less than $250
million515250510More than 100,000 people625Less than $500
million625500615More than 500,000 people740Less than $750
million7401000725More than 1 million people875Less than $1
billion8755000840More than 2.5 million people9125Less than
$25 billion912510000975More than 5 million people10200Less
than $50
billion102005000010125100,000+11200ACCESSIBILITYVALU
ESCORERECOVERABILITYVALUESCOREVULNERABILITY
VALUESCOREPatrolled10.99Less than 1 month11Special
Hardening10.9Perimeter Fencing20.98More than 1
month23Massive20.9Armed Security30.9More than 3
months35Building Purpose Unknown to Public30.95Unarmed
Security40.95More than 6 months410Operations Structurally
Dispersed40.95Access Control50.95More than 1
year515Concrete/Stone50.96Alarm System60.9More than 2
years625Structural Steel60.96Locked Area70.98More than 3
years740Flamable/Explosive70.97Open to Public80.99More
than 4 years875Minor Metal Frame80.98No Control90.999More
than 5 years9125Wood Design90.991Irreplacable10200No
Security
Design100.999ESPYABILITYVALUESCOREREDUNDANCYV
6. ALUESCORELocally significant, non-
government10.9100%10.001Locally significant,
government20.990%20.5State icon only30.9280%30.6State icon
+ function40.92570%40.65Regional icon
only50.9360%50.7Regional icon +
function60.93550%60.75National icon
only70.9540%70.8National icon +
function80.95530%80.85World icon only90.9920%90.9World
icon + function100.99510%100.950%111
Multi-Criterion_Workshop_1_.xlsx
Sheet1ASSETATTACK
MODETHREATVULNERABILITYCONSEQUENCETOTALInte
ntCapabilityScoreAchievabilityTarget
HardnessScoreDeath/InjuryEconomic
LossEnvironmentalNational SecuritySymbolicScoreGW
BridgeWater B device by
X100%100%100%10%5%1%100$5,000$500$6,150$30.750%0%
$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.0
00%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0
%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.
000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0
%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.
000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.000%0%$0$0.00DEFINITIONS$MI
ntentProbability that a person or gorup would want to do
thisValue per statistical life (VSL)6.5CapabilityProbability that
a person or group would be able to do
thisAchievabilityProbability of successful attack assuming no
security measuresTarget hardnessProbability that the target
cannot withstand the attack (lower =
harder)Death/InjuryNumber of deaths or injuries as a result of
attackEconomic lossEstimated dollar value of loss due to
attackEnvironmental Estimated dollar value of environmental
impactNational securityEstimated dollar value of impact on
national securitySymbolicEstimated dollar value of impact due
to symbolic value of target
67. Purpose of Assignment
The purpose of this assignment is for students to learn how to
apply Operations Forecasting.
Assignment Steps
Resources: Microsoft® Excel® (Template provided)
Select a business operations dataset from the internet, which
can be used for forecasting what the results may be at a future
state (monthly [for two years], quarterly [for five years],
annually [for 20 years]. (See example in the Template). Use
caution in using the template, as some of the cells contain
formatted functions for performing calculations. You should
only need to enter data into Column A and B only. Review the
template and the associated data. This should give you an idea
of the types of data you will require, and what the results
columns reveal. You are required to provide an APA formatted
reference to the location of the source data (Do Not just enter
the Web Link). The returned work from previous week's work,
should give you some insight as to what an APA reference
should look like.
Develop a run over a given period, upper limit and lower limit
as to confidence in the forecast using
Microsoft® Excel®.Template
· Compare and contrast each quadrant of the forecast.
· Evaluate the impact this forecast would have on the firm from
a financial metrics standpoint, by writing a 300-word report in
which you describe your forecasting project and what it means
in terms of favorable or unfavorable forecast and why or why
not..
Format your assignment consistent with APA guidelines.