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Hamish McRae - Pazarlama Zirvesi 2011


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Published in: Technology

Hamish McRae - Pazarlama Zirvesi 2011

  1. 1. What will happen to the world economy – and what this means for global business Hamish McRae • Five great medium-term global shifts and … • … their implications for the world of finance • Three big questions about the future
  2. 2. Two huge stories: globalisation …Kofi Annan It has been said that arguing against globalization is like arguing against the laws of gravity.
  3. 3. … and recession-driven debt!Barack Obama I found this national debt, doubled, wrapped in a big bow waiting for me as I stepped into the Oval Office.
  4. 4. But first: a glance back in time• The reversal of the Industrial Revolution• The G20 has replaced the G7 …• … acknowledging how power is shifting to Asia• Asia is the main source of global savings• China is now the second largest economy …• … India the second largest investor in the UK
  5. 5. The presentations structure …• First, a look at the forces behind this power shift• Then, how the downturn speeded this shift• The economic outlook for the next 12 months• How the world economy might look in 2030• Some implications for global business
  6. 6. Four great global trends• Demography – an ageing developed world• The environment – we still need to be greener• Technology – an even more level playing field• Government – under ever greater fiscal pressure
  7. 7. Ageing societies are different• The developed world is getting "older"• Much of the emerging world remains "young"• So there will be a great shift of economic power• Attitudes in the developed world will shift …• … towards wanting greater security
  8. 8. What does this mean for business?• Northern Europe less challenged than the "Club Med“• Turkey benefits from its youth• China benefits now; Indias "sweet spot" is later• Savings will continue to come from Asia• Obvious consequences: Europe must fix its finances• Less obvious: prizes go to those that adapt best
  9. 9. It’s good to be green• We can glimpse the end of the oil era• Uncertain energy supplies, coupled with …• … huge demand from the US, China and India• The desire for mobility will continue …• … concerns about climate change will rise …• … and continue to affect public policy
  10. 10. What does this mean for business?• One quick win: the value of a “green” reputation …• … which helps protect companies from attack …• … provided reputation is backed by substance• A world where resources are no longer abundant …• … inevitably redistributes wealth and power• Obvious beneficiaries: the raw material producers• Less obvious: companies that are best at adapting
  11. 11. The revolution in technology• It is (nearly) a global level playing field• Communications technologies are universal …• … and deeply democratic• But technology gives global reach …• … as well as global competition
  12. 12. What does this mean for business?• It is not quite a level playing field but a flatter one …• … for there are new peaks of excellence• Northern Europe is “wired”, southern Europe less so• Obvious issue: how does the "old" world compete?• Less obvious: what innovations from the "new" world?• Least obvious: what are the social changes?
  13. 13. Government in the 21st century• There are some things only governments can do …• … such as fight wars or rescue banks• But huge pressures as debts and demands rise …• … and revenues in the developed world are cut away• The EU nations are particularly vulnerable• The issue for all: how to do more with less?
  14. 14. What does this mean for business?• The debt legacy will be huge for the G7• So Western governments have to more effective …• … which will mean rethinking their financial model …• … using smarter regulation, not "tax n spend"• But banking will be different for a generation …• … and there will be huge pressure on global business
  15. 15. So what happens next?• We are well past the economic turning point …• … and equities eventually will reflect that• But there will be setbacks (Europe now) …• … and the recovery will be a two-speed one• Big question: how serious is the Eurozone crisis?
  16. 16. But there are huge risks• European fiscal reforms will be sub-optimal …• … probably perverse, and maybe catastrophic!• The Eurozone may hold together this cycle …• … though this looks less likely by the day• If it holds together the cost is severe austerity …• … and the inevitable break-up will be a mess
  17. 17. The world in 2020 - and beyond• Still in the early stages of the shift of power …• … captured by the Goldman Sachs BRICs model• Questions about the speed of change …• … and the things that might go wrong• But the broad outline seems set
  18. 18. Some key conclusions• The shift of power to Asia is inevitable …• … and Europe must embrace and learn from it• The immediate economic outlook is cloudy …• … and made cloudier by the Eurozone mess• There will be a two-speed global expansion …• … that will offer great opportunities for the wise
  19. 19. Some words of wisdom … Adam Smith It is not by augmenting the capital of the country, but by rendering a greater part of that capital active and productive than would otherwise be so, that the most judicious operations of banking can increase the industry of the country.
  20. 20. … and some words of thanks Alphonse de Lamartine If one had but a single glance to give the world, one should gaze on Istanbul.
  21. 21. What will happen to the world economy – and what this means for global business Hamish McRae • Five great medium-term global shifts and … • … their implications for the world of finance • Three big questions about the future