After Campaign 2016, Can Consumer Advertisers Learn Anything From Political Campaigns?
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Possible lessons from the campaign trail will be explored by Will Feltus, SVP for media research at National Media, the Alexandria, Virginia media agency that has handled national television planning and placement for the last three successful Republican presidential campaigns. The rare agency executive who manages both consumer and political accounts, Feltus argues that consumer and political marketing are very different. But once those differences are understood, Feltus believes both consumer and political advertisers can learn from one another.
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After Campaign 2016, Can Consumer Advertisers Learn Anything From Political Campaigns?
- 2. 2 After 2016, can consumer advertisers learn anything from political campaigns? Will Feltus Senior Vice President National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLC Alexandria VA
- 3. 3 OVERVIEW 1. How Consumer Advertising and Political Advertising are Different 2. What They have in Common: The Political Consumers Model 3. Can Consumer and Political Advertisers Learn Anything from One Another in 2017?
- 4. Copyright ©2016 by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. Inside Campaigns ElectionsthroughtheEyesof Political Professionals William J. Feltus George Washington University Kenneth M. Goldstein University of San Francisco Matthew Dallek George Washington University
- 5. 5 Academic appearance by Trump TV buyer Ben Angle draws angry barbs from California college students as they enjoy a catered buffet dinner in D.C., February 2017. “Ask Me How I’ve Ben Affected by Trump’s Media” “You Contributed to the Dissemination of HATE” “EVERYONE Is Welcome Here” Trump Media Buyer Greeted by College Students
- 6. HOW THEY ARE DIFFERENT Consumer and Political Advertising:
- 7. 7 PUBLIC SCRUTINY Consumer campaigns take care to avoid potential negative reactions. Low levels of public and news interest. Political campaigns expect negative reactions (and love to be criticized by the losers.) High levels of public and news interest.
- 8. 8 PURCHASE OPPORTUNITY Consumer Marketers The store or website will be open again tomorrow. Political Marketers The store is only open for one day (or a few weeks for absentee and early voting) then closed forever.
- 9. 9 TRACKING WHAT’S WORKING Consumer Marketers have daily sales and customer level purchase data. Political Marketers have a secret ballot problem.
- 10. 10 MEASURING SUCCESS AND ROI Consumer campaigns can be very profitable with single digit market shares. Political campaigns ultimately fail if they are not #1 in their category.
- 11. 11 PLANNING HORIZONS AND PRICING Consumer campaigns can plan over multiple quarters with price negotiating leverage and audience guarantees. There’s always next quarter. Spot costs and CPM’s are stable Political campaigns have uncertain cash flows and are typically funded on a week- by-week basis. Must pay unpredictable market rates with cash upfront. No guarantees or makegoods on ratings. Multi-tiered rate cards change constantly
- 12. 12 POLITICAL MEDIA PLANNERS ALWAYS FACE RISING COSTS… … and deal with a complicated and federally regulated sellside market. • Political advertisers are constantly pre- empted by other political advertisers willing to pay more. • The so-called candidate “lowest unit rate” is obtuse at the local market level, and available only 45 days prior to a primary and 60 days prior to a general election. • Non-candidate ”Super Pac’s” are forced by TV and cable outlets to pay 3x-4x the candidate rate. • There’s no confidentiality – all political ad orders must be publically disclosed. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 WMURTV BurlingtonDMATV CostperRatingPoint:Adults35–64 FIGURE 5.1 PoliticalAdvertisers Bid UpWMUR Rates during 2007 –2008 Presidential Primary Campaign Source: Analysisof advertisingratespreparedbyNational Media ResearchPlanningandPlacement LLC. itsbest advertisers, for example, alargelocal automobiledealership. TheLURrule Feb 20-25 M ar 12-18 M ar 19-25 Apr 4-10 Feb 26-M ar 4 M ay 2-8 M ay 23-29 Jun 13-19 July 4-10 July 18-24 Aug 1-7 Aug 30-Sep 4 Sep 22-25 Oct 3-9 Oct 24-30 Nov 14-20 Dec 5-11 Dec 26-Jan 8 WMUR’s presidential candidate rates up 200% in 11 months before New Hampshire primary.
- 13. 13 PUBLIC DISCLOSURE Political advertisers require their agencies to collect and evaluate competitive advertising intelligence on a daily basis.
- 14. 14 MESSAGING AND TRAFFIC Political campaigns constantly create new ad content and want it up the same day. From September to November, Clinton and her Democratic allies aired 137 spots. Trump and Republican allies aired 80. CLINTON CAMPAIGN TRUMP CAMPAIGN Positive 20 Positive 10 Contrast 25 Contrast 11 Negative 25 Negative 10 DEMOCRAT THIRD-PARTY REPUPLICAN THIRD-PARTY Positive 2 Positive 4 Contrast 8 Contrast 9 Negative 58 Negative 36
- 15. 15 During June-August, Clinton and her allies spent an estimated $127 million on TV versus Trump and allies total of $24 million. Trump spend was only 18% of Clinton. Gap narrowed in September-November when Trump spend was 69% of Clinton. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL AD SPENDING Sept-Nov Estimated Gross Spend in Millions CLINTON CAMPAIGN CLINTON ALLIES CLINTON COMBINED TRUMP CAMPAIGN TRUMP ALLIES TRUMP COMBINED TRUMP $$ AS A % OF CLINTON Network Broadcast and Cable $52.0 26% $0 - $52.0 19% $34.6 25% $11.5 22% $46.1 24% 89% Local Broadcast and Cable $150.0 74% $73.3 100% $223.3 81% $101.1 75% $41.9 78% $143.0 76% 64% Total $202.0 100% $73.3 100% $275.3 100% $135.7 100% $53.4 100 % $189.1 100 % 69% Remember: Each third-party allied dollar is worth only 1/3 – to – 1/4 of a candidate dollar.
- 16. 16 MANAGEMENT Consumer campaigns are long term, and run by experienced brand managers and vice- presidents of advertising. Political campaigns are short term organizations and don’t have vice- presidents of advertising.
- 17. 17 MANAGEMENT Creative & Account Mgt. Media Buyer The Client Most political ad consultants/agencies still operate on the old school model.
- 18. 18 MANAGEMENT Some presidential and national party campaigns have used separate media and creative teams. Client Creative & Account Mgt. Client Media Team Traditional Political Model Current Consumer Model Creative Team Media Buyer Bush 2000, 2004 and Trump 2016 used independent creative and media teams. McCain 2008 and Romney 2012 did not.
- 19. 19 PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT Consumer campaigns only sell the soap. Political campaigns make the soap and sell it.
- 20. 20 MARKETING IS ONLY PART OF WHAT CAMPAIGN MANAGERS DO CAMPAIGN MANAGER as: Entrepreneur and Chief Financial Officer Team Builder Marketing Maven Field General Press Spinner Political Historian and Data Scientist Strategy Enforcer Scriptwriter and Stage Manager Policy Wonk Candidate Confidant and Concierge Managing Inside the Campaign Managing Outside the Campaign Ten Key Roles the Campaign Manager Must Play
- 21. 21 CONTROL OF INFORMATION FLOW Consumer campaigns and brands are infrequently affected by unanticipated outside information sources. Political campaigns and candidates are continually disrupted by information sources beyond their control. News events and reporting, opposition candidates, pro- and anti- third party groups
- 22. 22 CANDIDATES REALLY AREN’T BRANDS The Gecko doesn’t change the script, misspeak, or do his own tweets.
- 23. WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON Consumer and Political Advertising:
- 24. 24 VOTERS ARE CONSUMERS OF POLITICS 1.) Consumption level 2.) Brand preference
- 25. 25 KEY TARGETING VARIABLES: VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP 1.) Consumption: Turnout Index 2.) Brand: Party Index DEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW HIGHTURNOUTLOWTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex Party Index
- 26. 26 ADULT VOTING PROPENSITY BY PARTY AFFILIATION: 2014- 16 14.3% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% 5.2% 14.4% 7.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 5.5% 6.0% 2.3% 2.4% 14.0% 1.4% 2.9% Scarborough USA 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014 – Nov 2016), N=408,708 SometimesVotesStatewide 24.7% AlwaysVote Statewide46.3% NeverVotes Statewide29% Democrat 27.6% Independent, but feel closer to Democrat 9.9% None of these 20.4% Independent, but feel closer to Republican 9.3% Republican 22.8% Independent 10.1%
- 27. 27 MEDIA HEAVINESS: TOP TWO QUINTILES TV - Top 40% Radio - Top 40% Internet - Top 40% Newspaper - Top 40% 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters Scarborough USA+ 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014-Nov 2016) N= 408,708
- 28. 28 MEDIA HEAVINESS: TV TV Top 20% TV Second 20% TV Bottom 60% 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters Scarborough USA+ 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014-Nov 2016) N= 408,708
- 29. 29 THE EXPANDING PARTISAN CABLE NEWS UNIVERSE: 2000 - 2016 2000 11% 2004 13%2008 11% 2012 9% 2016 8% 2000 17% 2004 26% 2008 26% 2012 22% 2016 18% 2000 34.4% 2004 27.1% 2008 25.8% 2012 20.7% 2016 19.3% 100 110 120 130 140 150 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 LOWERTURNOUT HIGHER TURNOUT VoterTurnoutIndex Differences between Republican and Democrat Indexes DEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW More Democratic Audience More Republican Audience In 2000 all three news nets had center- right audiences
- 30. 30 VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: CABLE NETWORKS ESPN History Discovery A&E CNN FOX News T… USA HGTV Weather Food Net AMC Hallmark Lifetime FX Nat Geo TNT Disney Ch Animal Planet Cooking Ch Comedy Central Syfy FOX Sports 1 Freeform TCM TLC Spike MSNBC Bravo LMN MTV NFL Net TV Land CNBC FOX Sports Net E! Travel Nick CMT Adult Swim Cartoon Net DIY Net Golf Ch GSN HLN MLB Net Nick at Nite WGN America NBCSN IFC Destination America Boomerang 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW LOWERTURNOUT HIGHER TURNOUT VoterTurnoutIndex
- 31. 31 VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: NEWSLOWERTURNOUT HIGHER TURNOUT VoterTurnoutIndex ABC World News Tonight BBC World News Anderson Cooper 360° CBS Evening News Face the Nation CBS Morning News CBS Sunday Morning CBS This Morning Fox and Friends Hannity The Kelly File The O'Reilly Factor Fox News Sunday GMA Nancy Grace NBC Meet the Press NBC Nightly News Nightly Business Report PBS NewsHour America This Morning This Week with George Stephanopoulos Today Show 90 110 130 150 170 190 -140 -90 -40 10 60 110 160 210 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
- 32. 32 VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: PRIMETIME TVLOWERTURNOUT HIGHER TURNOUT VoterTurnoutIndex America's Got Talent American Crime American Ninja Warrior Aquarius Beyond the Tank Black-ish Blindspot Celebrity Family Feud Chicago Med Code Black Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders Dr. Ken Empire Fresh Off the Boat How to Get Away with Murder iZombie Jane the Virgin Last Comic Standing Legends of Tomorrow Life in Pieces Little Big Shots Lucifer Lucky Dog Madam Secretary NCIS: New Orleans Outer Limits Quantico Rosewood Scorpion Secrets and Lies Shades of Blue Supergirl The 100 The Catch The Flash The Last Man on Earth The Night Shift The Odd Couple The X-FilesWhose Line is it Anyway? 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
- 33. CAN THEY LEARN ANYTHING FROM ONE ANOTHER IN 2017? Consumer and Political Advertising:
- 34. 34 POLITICS OF CONSUMERS Consumer marketers need to understand the politics of their customers and their competition.
- 35. 35 VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RETAIL Sherwin Williams Dick's Sporting GoodsPottery Barn Lowe's Eddie Bauer TalbotsBed Bath & Beyond Chico's Costco American Eagle Outfitters Ann Taylor Walmart Williams-Sonoma Crate & Barrel Pier 1 Imports Trader Joe's Nordstrom Macy's Neiman Marcus Whole Foods Market Victoria's Secret Ralphs Lord & Taylor Bloomingdale's Saks Fifth Avenue Foot Locker 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273 VoterTurnoutIndex
- 36. 36 VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RESTAURANTSVoterTurnoutIndex Cracker Barrel Outback Steakhouse Chili's Grill & Bar Ruby Tuesday Buffalo Wild Wings CiCi's Pizza International House of Pancakes (IHOP) Village Inn Restaurant Uno Chicago Grill T.G.I. Friday's Dave & Buster's Benihana Chick-Fil-A Whataburger Arby's Panera Bread Krystal Papa John's Subway Wendy's StarbucksMcDonald's Burger King Carl's Jr. Domino's Chipotle Mexican Grill Jack in the Box Boston Market Popeyes Chicken Au Bon Pain Rally's 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
- 37. 37 IDENTIFYING OPINION LEADERS: ELITES AND INFLUENCERS If corporate reputation is important to your client, learn how to reach well-informed and highly-involved opinion leaders. 10% - 25% of American adults
- 38. 38
- 39. 39 ELITES AND INFLUENCERS: SPORTS Super Bowl NFL playoffs Monday Night Football Sunday Night Football Thursday Night Football World Series Olympics MLB playoffs NBA playoffs NBA Finals NCAA Men's Tournament PGA TOUR (men's golf) Horse racing Figure skating Stanley Cup playoffs Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Pro boxing Women's tennis (WTA) Men's tennis (ATP) WWE (pro wrestling) Pro Bull Riding (PBR) U.S. Soccer National Team European soccer Fishing Regular season MLB Tournament poker NHRA Drag Racing Pro rodeo Formula One (F1) racing LPGA Tour (women's golf) Extreme/action sports Regular season NBA NCAA Women's Tournament Supercross/Motocross PBA (pro bowling) Regular season NHL High school sportsPro surfing Pro/college lacrosse 80 100 120 140 160 180 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW Sports watched in the past 12 months Scarborough USA+ 2016 Release 2 Aug 2015-Nov 2016, N=204,314 Elites+InfluencersIndex
- 40. NATIONAL MEDIA
- 41. Vodka Bud Light Rum Tequila Bourbon whiskey Coors Light Corona Miller Lite Budweiser Blue Moon Samuel Adams Heineken Any microbrew Merlot White Zinfandel Gin Cabernet Sauvignon Scotch whisky Chardonnay Michelob Ultra Canadian whiskey Pinot Grigio Guinness Brandy Stella Artois Corona Light Miller High Life Pinot Noir Dos Equis Cognac Miller Genuine Draft Red Zinfandel Any malt liquor Natural Light Busch LightTecate Coors Original Rolling Rock Shiraz/Syrah Busch Amstel Light Labatt Blue Michelob Light Sauvignon Blanc Milwaukee's Best Brut/Brut Extra Dry 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Political Happy Hour HIGHTURNOUTLOWTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEWCopyright 2013 W. Feltus & NMRPP LLC 41
- 42. Bud Light Budweiser Blue Moon Corona Extra Jose Cuervo Samuel Adams Grey Goose Coors Light Absolut Heineken Barefoot Jack Daniel's Mike's Hard Lemonade Coors Yuengling Miller Lite Corona Light Patrón Capt. Morgan Yellow Tail Bud Light Lime-A-Rita Smirnoff Ice Stella Artois Jameson Dos Equis Crown Royal Kendall-Jackson Miller High Life Sutter Home Bailey's Orig. Irish Cream Beringer Malibu Coconut Woodbridge 1800 Tequila Michelob UltraShock Top Jim Beam Guinness Draught Robert Mondavi Tanqueray Bacardi Gold Smirnoff No. 21 Pabst Blue Ribbon Maker's Mark Skyy Sierra Nevada Svedka Leinenkugel's Chateau Ste. Michelle Arbor Mist Korbel Kahlúa Modelo Especial Newcastle Michelob Miller Busch Martini & Rossi Ketel One Don Julio Ménage à Trois Gallo Pinnacle Bombay Sapphire Moët & Chandon Rolling Rock Budweiser Select Tecate Twisted Tea Andre Shiner Bock Pacifico Amstel Light Jägermeister Franzia Oak Leaf Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey Three Olives Red Stripe Blackstone Mike's Hard Tea Evan Williams Knob Creek Becks Seagram's Stolichnaya Black Box Canadian Club George Killian's Irish Red Beefeater Bombay Ravenswood Landshark Lager Michelob Light Natural Light Keystone Jacob's Creek Gentleman Jack Concha y Toro Cazadores Gordon's Chandon Pilsner Urquell Hendrick's Milwaukee's Best Red Stag St. Pauli Girl Skinnygirl Admiral Nelson’s Manischewitz Appleton Estate Select 55 60 80 100 120 140 160 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters Politics of Alcohol Beverage Consumers Gfk MRI 2015 Doublebase Study (n = 48,168) Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Low Turnout Democrat Voters
- 43. 43 AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION BONUS QUESTION What is the most Republican soft drink?
- 44. Coca-Cola Pepsi Diet Coke Dr Pepper Mountain Dew Sprite Diet Pepsi Coca-Cola Zero Diet Dr Pepper A&W Root Beer Canada Dry Caffeine Free Diet Coke 7Up Diet Mountain Dew Cherry Coke Barq's Root Beer Crush Fanta Sierra Mist Natural Sunkist Caffeine Free Diet Pepsi Sprite Zero Diet 7Up Diet A&W Root Beer Pepsi Max Fresca Diet Sierra Mist Diet Sunkist Mello Yello Fanta Zero 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Editor's Notes
- Could this be some kind of title slide? With a backgroudn image?
- Could this be some kind of title slide? With a backgroudn image?
- Could this be some kind of title slide? With a backgroudn image?