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2014	
  iSPIRT	
  
Annual	
  Letter	
  
	
  
This	
  is	
  our	
  first	
  annual	
  letter.	
  Just	
  as	
  in	
  this	
  message,	
  we	
  will	
  continue	
  to	
  share	
  in	
  a	
  frank	
  way	
  what	
  our	
  
goals	
  are	
  and	
  where	
  progress	
  is	
  being	
  made	
  and	
  where	
  it	
  is	
  not.	
  This	
  year	
  we	
  have	
  chosen	
  to	
  focus,	
  not	
  
on	
  iSPIRT’s	
  initiatives	
  and	
  activities,	
  but	
  	
  on	
  the	
  software	
  product	
  industry	
  itself.	
  We	
  discuss	
  how	
  
software	
  products	
  will	
  transform	
  India	
  at	
  large	
  and	
  why	
  the	
  software	
  product	
  industry	
  is	
  strategic	
  to	
  our	
  
country.	
  We	
  conclude	
  by	
  explaining	
  the	
  evolutionary	
  stages	
  the	
  rise	
  of	
  the	
  Indian	
  software	
  product	
  
industry.	
  

Software	
  Products	
  Will	
  Transform	
  India	
  at	
  Large	
  	
  
	
  
We	
  believe	
  that	
  the	
  new	
  generation	
  of	
  Indian	
  software	
  products	
  will	
  have	
  a	
  big	
  impact	
  on	
  improving	
  
government,	
  labor,	
  and	
  social	
  productivity.	
  It	
  will	
  make	
  governance	
  more	
  data-­‐driven,	
  small	
  businesses	
  
exponentially	
  more	
  productive,	
  and	
  communities	
  more	
  connected.	
  
In	
  India,	
  the	
  majority	
  of	
  economic	
  activity	
  takes	
  place	
  in	
  the	
  informal	
  sector.	
  For	
  the	
  first	
  time	
  ever,	
  self-­‐
employed	
  individuals	
  are	
  able	
  to	
  use	
  technology	
  to	
  become	
  efficient	
  and	
  competitive.	
  For	
  instance,	
  a	
  
self-­‐employed	
  driver	
  can	
  now	
  be	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  taxi	
  network	
  and	
  have	
  access	
  to	
  new	
  customers.	
  Or	
  a	
  small	
  
bus	
  operator	
  can	
  use	
  RedBus	
  and	
  have	
  a	
  state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art	
  seat	
  management	
  system.	
  In	
  fact,	
  now	
  any	
  
small	
  business	
  can	
  embrace	
  a	
  game	
  changing	
  business	
  application	
  easily.	
  This	
  is	
  creating	
  unprecedented	
  
opportunities	
  for	
  individuals	
  and	
  smaller	
  firms	
  to	
  create	
  value	
  in	
  their	
  business.	
  As	
  this	
  revolution	
  
unfolds,	
  it	
  has	
  the	
  potential	
  to	
  make	
  the	
  informal	
  sector	
  the	
  new	
  engine	
  of	
  economic	
  growth.	
  
Large	
  businesses	
  everywhere	
  are	
  in	
  the	
  midst	
  of	
  massive	
  change	
  where	
  competitive	
  intensity	
  is	
  
increasing,	
  where	
  barriers	
  to	
  entry	
  are	
  reducing	
  sharply,	
  and	
  where	
  margins	
  are	
  hard	
  to	
  sustain.	
  There	
  
are	
  many	
  ways	
  to	
  characterize	
  the	
  shifts	
  taking	
  place.	
  Hierarchies	
  to	
  networks.	
  Stocks	
  to	
  flows.	
  
Centralized	
  to	
  distributed.	
  Broadcast	
  to	
  peer-­‐driven.	
  One-­‐way	
  to	
  two-­‐way.	
  Command	
  and	
  control	
  to	
  
community.	
  To	
  cope	
  with	
  all	
  this,	
  a	
  new	
  generation	
  of	
  IT	
  infrastructure	
  and	
  applications	
  is	
  getting	
  
deployed.	
  Indian	
  software	
  products	
  are	
  making	
  their	
  mark	
  in	
  this	
  space	
  and	
  several	
  startups	
  have	
  
become	
  leading	
  players	
  on	
  a	
  global	
  basis	
  in	
  their	
  specific	
  categories.	
  

Software	
  Products	
  Industry	
  is	
  Strategic	
  to	
  India	
  	
  
	
  
Leadership	
  in	
  software	
  products	
  offers	
  a	
  unique	
  opportunity	
  to	
  re-­‐position	
  Brand	
  India.	
  Until	
  the	
  1990s,	
  
there	
  was	
  no	
  industry	
  in	
  which	
  India	
  was	
  seen	
  as	
  a	
  leader;	
  no	
  industry	
  with	
  which	
  India’s	
  name	
  was	
  
inextricably	
  linked.	
  That	
  changed	
  with	
  India’s	
  ascendance	
  in	
  the	
  software	
  services	
  industry.	
  When	
  India,	
  
for	
  the	
  first	
  time,	
  was	
  featured	
  in	
  the	
  World	
  Economic	
  Forum	
  at	
  Davos;	
  when	
  Indian	
  industry	
  leaders	
  
were	
  for	
  the	
  first	
  time	
  sought	
  out	
  by	
  foreign	
  governments	
  as	
  advisors;	
  even	
  when	
  an	
  Indian	
  industry	
  was	
  
 
	
  
	
  
for	
  the	
  first	
  time	
  the	
  reason	
  for	
  heated	
  debates	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Congress	
  and	
  the	
  target	
  of	
  important	
  
legislation	
  –	
  in	
  all	
  these	
  cases	
  it	
  was	
  India’s	
  success	
  in	
  the	
  software	
  services	
  industry	
  that	
  was	
  the	
  driver.	
  	
  
India’s	
  success	
  in	
  software	
  services	
  also	
  led	
  to	
  the	
  birth	
  of	
  a	
  whole	
  range	
  of	
  outsourcing	
  activities	
  to	
  
India	
  including	
  BPO,	
  KPO	
  and	
  LPO.	
  
Yet,	
  in	
  spite	
  of	
  the	
  huge	
  commercial	
  success	
  of	
  the	
  software	
  services	
  industry,	
  the	
  benefits	
  to	
  brand	
  
India	
  have	
  been	
  circumscribed.	
  At	
  a	
  broad	
  level,	
  this	
  is	
  because	
  software	
  services	
  are	
  essentially	
  a	
  
business-­‐to-­‐business	
  (B2B)	
  activity.	
  The	
  brands	
  of	
  software	
  services	
  companies	
  become	
  visible	
  only	
  
thanks	
  to	
  the	
  persona	
  of	
  their	
  founders	
  and	
  CEOs,	
  their	
  performance	
  on	
  the	
  stock	
  market,	
  and	
  their	
  
recruitment	
  activities.	
  Therefore,	
  their	
  brands	
  (and	
  by	
  extension,	
  brand	
  India)	
  don’t	
  get	
  a	
  high	
  level	
  of	
  
visibility	
  outside	
  India	
  except	
  perhaps	
  in	
  MBA	
  curricula.	
  	
  	
  
Though	
  India’s	
  advantage	
  in	
  software	
  services	
  transcends	
  cost	
  advantages,	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  unusual	
  even	
  today	
  
to	
  see	
  India’s	
  success	
  in	
  software	
  services	
  referred	
  to	
  politely	
  as	
  a	
  labor	
  cost	
  arbitrage	
  story	
  or	
  
sometimes	
  more	
  acerbically	
  by	
  references	
  to	
  cybercoolies	
  and	
  other	
  such	
  derogatory	
  terms	
  	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  
lack	
  of	
  inherent	
  IP.	
  
Every	
  country	
  that	
  has	
  made	
  it	
  big	
  on	
  the	
  world	
  stage	
  in	
  the	
  last	
  many	
  decades	
  has	
  had	
  prominent	
  
brands	
  that	
  have	
  powered	
  their	
  growth	
  story.	
  Twenty	
  years	
  ago,	
  it	
  was	
  Sony	
  from	
  Japan.	
  Today,	
  it	
  is	
  
Samsung	
  from	
  the	
  Republic	
  of	
  Korea.	
  India	
  needs	
  similar	
  brands	
  that	
  can	
  power	
  its	
  global	
  image.	
  	
  
How	
  can	
  India	
  use	
  the	
  foundation	
  created	
  by	
  the	
  software	
  services	
  industry	
  to	
  go	
  to	
  the	
  next	
  level	
  in	
  
terms	
  of	
  global	
  branding	
  and	
  soft	
  power?	
  Software	
  products	
  offer	
  one	
  viable	
  route.	
  If	
  India	
  were	
  to	
  have	
  
the	
  equivalent	
  of	
  a	
  Google	
  or	
  a	
  Yahoo,	
  that	
  could	
  do	
  the	
  trick.	
  	
  

Software	
  Product	
  Industry	
  Evolution	
  Stages	
  	
  
	
  
Given	
  the	
  path	
  dependent	
  nature	
  of	
  hi-­‐tech	
  industry	
  evolution	
  it	
  is	
  essential	
  to	
  understand	
  the	
  context	
  
of	
  current	
  industry	
  evolution.	
  Indian	
  Software	
  Product	
  Industry	
  (SPI)	
  has	
  five	
  stages	
  of	
  evolution.	
  The	
  
Indian	
  SPI	
  is	
  now	
  entering	
  Stage	
  3.	
  
	
  
 

	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  

Stage	
  1:	
  Underground	
  Movement.	
  1999-­‐2010	
  
During	
  the	
  11	
  years	
  since	
  1999	
  the	
  Indian	
  SPI	
  was	
  an	
  underground	
  movement.	
  Not	
  many	
  people,	
  even	
  in	
  
the	
  IT	
  Industry,	
  were	
  interested	
  in	
  this	
  area.	
  Yet,	
  much	
  was	
  happening.	
  The	
  nascent	
  industry	
  was	
  
building	
  confidence.	
  	
  
During	
  this	
  stage,	
  three	
  success	
  stories	
  came	
  to	
  the	
  fore	
  that	
  provided	
  confidence	
  to	
  broader	
  audience	
  
that	
  SPI	
  can	
  take	
  root	
  in	
  India.	
  In	
  the	
  Large	
  Business	
  Application	
  Software	
  (LBAS)	
  segment,	
  i-­‐flex	
  showed	
  
the	
  way.	
  Its	
  acquisition	
  for	
  over	
  $1	
  billion	
  dollars	
  by	
  Oracle	
  was	
  a	
  big	
  boost	
  to	
  Indian	
  SPI.	
  In	
  the	
  Small	
  
Business	
  Application	
  Software	
  (SBAC),	
  Tally	
  sold	
  to	
  more	
  than	
  a	
  million	
  SMBs	
  in	
  India.	
  This	
  was	
  a	
  big	
  
milestone	
  even	
  by	
  global	
  standards.	
  Tally	
  joined	
  a	
  select	
  club	
  of	
  software	
  product	
  companies	
  in	
  the	
  
world	
  that	
  have	
  more	
  than	
  a	
  million	
  business	
  customers.	
  Finally,	
  out	
  of	
  Kolkata	
  no	
  less,	
  FusionCharts	
  
sold	
  its	
  charting	
  software	
  to	
  over	
  ten	
  thousand	
  businesses	
  outside	
  India	
  without	
  having	
  any	
  sales	
  office	
  
or	
  sales	
  presence	
  in	
  US.	
  This	
  success	
  galvanized	
  the	
  belief	
  in	
  India’s	
  ability	
  to	
  be	
  a	
  player	
  in	
  the	
  booming	
  
global	
  SaaS	
  market.	
  	
  
Towards	
  2007,	
  we	
  saw	
  industry	
  leaders	
  in	
  Indian	
  SPI	
  come	
  together,	
  first	
  to	
  celebrate	
  success,	
  then	
  to	
  
create	
  media	
  awareness	
  of	
  the	
  Industry	
  and	
  finally	
  to	
  create	
  public	
  goods	
  necessary	
  to	
  take	
  the	
  industry	
  
forward.	
  
 
	
  
	
  
Stage	
  2:	
  Emergence	
  of	
  Indian	
  SPI.	
  2010-­‐2013.	
  
The	
  three	
  success	
  stories	
  mentioned	
  earlier	
  –	
  i-­‐flex,	
  Tally	
  and	
  FusionCharts	
  –	
  acted	
  as	
  an	
  impetus	
  to	
  the	
  
creation	
  of	
  SPI	
  startups.	
  Today	
  we	
  have	
  good	
  SPI	
  startup	
  density	
  in	
  Bangalore,	
  Pune	
  and	
  Chennai	
  with	
  
NCR,	
  Mumbai	
  and	
  Hyderabad	
  also	
  showing	
  good	
  momentum.	
  	
  
SPI	
  Startup	
  density	
  in	
  India	
  is	
  now	
  high.	
  On	
  Angel	
  List1,	
  India	
  now	
  has	
  3.2	
  times	
  more	
  startups	
  (2123	
  
versus	
  651)	
  than	
  Israel	
  which	
  is	
  a	
  shining	
  example	
  of	
  the	
  hi-­‐tech	
  industry.	
  	
  
Given	
  these	
  excellent	
  numbers,	
  we	
  don’t	
  need	
  policies	
  to	
  boost	
  SPI	
  startup	
  rates.	
  Instead	
  we	
  need	
  
policies	
  and	
  institutions	
  to	
  reduce	
  SPI	
  startup	
  failure	
  rates	
  and	
  improve	
  outcomes.	
  	
  
Stage	
  3:	
  Maturation.	
  2014-­‐e2017	
  
This	
  is	
  the	
  stage	
  where	
  the	
  SPI	
  with	
  a	
  critical	
  mass	
  of	
  companies	
  needs	
  to	
  consolidate	
  its	
  position.	
  This	
  
stage	
  is	
  typically	
  characterized	
  by	
  a	
  string	
  of	
  positive	
  outcomes	
  –	
  substantial	
  VC	
  investments,	
  M&As	
  and	
  
IPOs	
  –	
  that	
  give	
  the	
  industry	
  much	
  needed	
  validation	
  and	
  a	
  boost	
  of	
  confidence.	
  
Conventional	
  wisdom,	
  not	
  just	
  in	
  India	
  but	
  across	
  the	
  world,	
  holds	
  that	
  2123	
  Indian	
  SPI	
  startups	
  listed	
  on	
  
Angel	
  List	
  will	
  have	
  much	
  poorer	
  outcomes	
  than	
  the	
  651	
  Israeli	
  SPI	
  startups.	
  This	
  belief	
  is	
  supported	
  by	
  
data.	
  An	
  iSPIRT	
  and	
  SignalHill	
  analysis2	
  reveals	
  that	
  India	
  has	
  the	
  worst	
  multiple	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  M&A	
  exits.	
  In	
  
Israel	
  the	
  M&A	
  exit	
  value	
  was	
  ~7X	
  of	
  the	
  VC/PE	
  investment	
  during	
  the	
  same	
  period.	
  In	
  US	
  the	
  multiple	
  
was	
   ~5X.	
   In	
   India	
   it	
   was	
   only	
   1.1X	
   (and	
   this	
   too	
   was	
   inflated	
   because	
   it	
   counted	
   IT	
   Services	
   M&A	
   exits	
   as	
  
well).	
  	
  
At	
   this	
   stage	
   of	
   evolution	
   of	
   Indian	
   SPI,	
   we	
   have	
   startups	
   but	
   have	
   poor	
   outcomes	
   for	
   those	
   startups.	
  
Therefore	
   the	
   focus	
   has	
   to	
   be	
   on	
   improving	
   SPI	
   startup	
   outcomes	
   rather	
   than	
   boosting	
   SPI	
   startup	
  
density.	
   If	
   this	
   is	
   not	
   done,	
   the	
   exceptionally	
   high	
   startup	
   failure	
   rates	
   will	
   trigger	
   disenchantment	
  
amongst	
  potential	
  entrepreneurs.	
  This	
  can	
  bring	
  the	
  current	
  momentum	
  in	
  startup	
  density	
  growth	
  to	
  a	
  
halt.	
  	
  
To	
  improve	
  SPI	
  startup	
  outcomes	
  several	
  areas	
  have	
  to	
  be	
  addressed.	
  These	
  range	
  from	
  addressing	
  early	
  
stage	
  financing	
  gap,	
  to	
  providing	
  better	
  playbooks	
  to	
  SPI	
  startups,	
  to	
  having	
  privileged	
  access	
  to	
  strategic	
  
technologies,	
  etc.	
  These	
  are	
  covered	
  in	
  more	
  detail	
  in	
  a	
  later	
  section.	
  	
  
Stage	
  4:	
  Building	
  Global	
  Ecosystems.	
  e2015-­‐e2019	
  
The	
   speed	
   at	
   which	
   Nokia’s	
   handset	
   business	
   deteriorated	
   has	
   shocked	
   everybody.	
   It	
   went	
   from	
   being	
   a	
  
market	
   leader	
   in	
   smartphones	
   to	
   being	
   unviable	
   as	
   a	
   company	
   in	
   less	
   than	
   20	
   months.	
   Nowadays,	
  
Blackberry	
   is	
   undergoing	
   the	
   same	
   tragic	
   downtown	
   in	
   fortunes.	
   In	
   fact	
   this	
   movie	
   has	
   been	
   played	
  
several	
  times	
  before	
  in	
  the	
  hi-­‐tech	
  industry.	
  Back	
  in	
  2001,	
  Glenayre	
  Technologies,	
  a	
  market	
  leader	
  in	
  the	
  
two-­‐way	
  pager	
  business,	
  went	
  from	
  a	
  technology	
  darling	
  to	
  a	
  basket	
  case	
  in	
  under	
  two	
  years.	
  Further	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
1
2

rd

	
  Angel	
  List	
  is	
  the	
  leading	
  platform	
  for	
  technology	
  startups	
  looking	
  for	
  early-­‐stage	
  funding.	
  Data	
  as	
  of	
  3 	
  Nov	
  2013.	
  
th
	
  This	
  is	
  dated	
  10 	
  Oct	
  2013.	
  
 
	
  
	
  
back	
  in	
  time,	
  in	
  1985,	
  the	
  famous	
  Osborne	
  computer	
  had	
  suffered	
  the	
  same	
  fate.	
  Its	
  business	
  collapsed	
  
in	
  one	
  year.	
  
Why	
  do	
  some	
  good	
  firms	
  collapse	
  so	
  suddenly?	
  Nokia’s	
  CEO	
  Stephen	
  Elopprovides	
  the	
  answer	
  in	
  his	
  now	
  
infamous	
  9th	
  Feb	
  2011	
  memo.	
  He	
  said:	
  
“The	
   battle	
   of	
   devices	
   has	
   now	
   become	
   a	
   war	
   of	
   ecosystems,	
   where	
   ecosystems	
   include	
   not	
   only	
   the	
  
hardware	
   and	
   software	
   of	
   the	
   device,	
   but	
   developers,	
   applications,	
   ecommerce,	
   advertising,	
   search,	
  
social	
   applications,	
   location-­‐based	
   services,	
   unified	
   communications	
   and	
   many	
   other	
   things.	
   Our	
  
competitors	
  aren't	
  taking	
  our	
  market	
  share	
  with	
  devices;	
  they	
  are	
  taking	
  our	
  market	
  share	
  with	
  an	
  entire	
  
ecosystem.	
   This	
   means	
   we're	
   going	
   to	
   have	
   to	
   decide	
   how	
   we	
   either	
   build,	
   catalyse	
   or	
   join	
   an	
  
ecosystem.”	
  
In	
  many	
  cases,	
  the	
  very	
  success	
  of	
  a	
  product	
  firm	
  results	
  in	
  a	
  competitive	
  response	
  where	
  the	
  battle	
  of	
  
products	
  becomes	
  the	
  war	
  of	
  ecosystems.	
  If	
  a	
  firm	
  has	
  not	
  planned	
  for	
  this	
  new	
  kind	
  of	
  competition,	
  it	
  
quickly	
  loses	
  its	
  market	
  position	
  and	
  fades	
  away.	
  
We	
   expect	
   that	
   there	
   will	
   be	
   about	
   five	
   software	
   products	
   companies	
   with	
   a	
   billion	
   dollar	
   market	
   cap	
  
(e.g.	
  InMobi,	
  Zoho,	
  QuickHeal,	
  Pubmatic,	
  etc.)	
  in	
  the	
  coming	
  years.	
  Of	
  these,	
  at	
  least	
  one	
  of	
  them	
  will	
  
have	
  to	
  engage	
  in	
  this	
  war	
  of	
  ecosystems	
  in	
  the	
  coming	
  years.	
  We	
  know	
  that	
  losing	
  this	
  ecosystem	
  war	
  
has	
   delirious	
   consequences.	
   In	
   contrast,	
   winning	
   the	
   war	
   of	
   ecosystems	
   has	
   big	
   benefits.	
   By	
   turning	
   a	
  
product	
   franchise	
   into	
   an	
   ecosystem,	
   a	
   company	
   becomes	
   less	
   vulnerable	
   and	
   has	
   better	
   financials.	
  
There	
  are	
  other	
  benefits	
  as	
  well.	
  Microsoft	
  claims	
  an	
  employment	
  of	
  15m	
  in	
  its	
  ecosystem3.	
  	
  SAP,	
  Google	
  
and	
  OpenSource	
  ecosystems	
  also	
  report	
  similar	
  benefits.	
  	
  
There	
  are	
  significant	
  challenges	
  in	
  creating	
  ecosystems.	
  These	
  relate	
  to	
  three	
  areas.	
  First,	
  there	
  are	
  no	
  
clear	
   guidelines	
   for	
   performing	
   correct	
   and	
   insightful	
   modeling	
   of	
   software	
   ecosystems.	
   Second,	
  
conducting	
   an	
   ongoing	
   health	
   analysis	
   of	
   an	
   ecosystem	
   is	
   still	
   a	
   daunting	
   data	
   mining	
   task:	
   what	
   are	
   the	
  
indicators	
  to	
  look	
  at?	
  How	
  can	
  data	
  be	
  found	
  on	
  the	
  revenues	
  of	
  our	
  partners?	
  How	
  many	
  new	
  entrants	
  
join	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  every	
  year?	
  And	
  how	
  much	
  do	
  these	
  really	
  contribute?	
  Third,	
  relates	
  to	
  the	
  issue	
  of	
  
Governance.	
  This	
  addresses	
  the	
  issue	
  of	
  how	
  to	
  govern	
  software	
  ecosystems	
  to	
  gain	
  measurable	
  success	
  
in	
  terms	
  of	
  staying	
  power,	
  profit,	
  usage	
  and	
  participation.	
  	
  
India	
   has	
   not	
   yet	
   built	
   a	
   software	
   ecosystem	
   though	
   two	
   local	
   ecosystem	
   building	
   projects	
   are	
  
underway.	
   Both	
   UIDAI	
   and	
   Akash	
   Tablets	
   are	
   trying	
   to	
   build	
   a	
   software	
   ecosystem	
   around	
   their	
  
offerings.	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  good	
  for	
  India	
  to	
  strengthen	
  its	
  ecosystem	
  building	
  muscles.	
  	
  
In	
   time,	
   we	
   are	
   confident	
   that	
   at	
   least	
   one	
   Indian	
   SPI	
   firm	
   will	
   be	
   successful	
   in	
   building	
   an	
   ecosystem	
  
around	
   its	
   products.	
   Only	
   when	
   this	
   happens,	
   will	
   it	
   signify	
   that	
   the	
   “next	
   Google”	
   or	
   the	
   “next	
  
Microsoft”	
   has	
   been	
   born	
   from	
   India.	
   Getting	
   to	
   this	
   stage	
   is	
   something	
   that	
   (even)the	
   Israeli	
   hi-­‐tech	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
3

http://www.informationweek.com/microsoft-­‐says-­‐its-­‐software-­‐ecosystem-­‐em/202404791	
  
 
	
  
	
  
industry,	
  despite	
  is	
  success,	
  has	
  not	
  been	
  able	
  to	
  do.	
  What	
  is	
  working	
  in	
  India’s	
  favor	
  is	
  the	
  presence	
  of	
  a	
  
big	
  domestic	
  market	
  in	
  India.	
  	
  
Stage	
  5:	
  Outward	
  Investment.	
  e2019	
  onwards.	
  
This	
   stage	
   is	
   characterized	
   by	
   outward	
   investments	
   to	
   deal	
   with	
   transformative	
   technologies	
   and	
  
strengthening	
   of	
   the	
   moat	
   around	
   the	
   India	
   SPI	
   ecosystems.	
   It	
   is	
   only	
   at	
   this	
   stage	
   that	
   a	
   truly	
  
sustainable	
  India	
  SPI	
  would	
  be	
  created.	
  

Looking	
  Ahead	
  
We	
  hope	
  you	
  will	
  help	
  get	
  the	
  word	
  out	
  on	
  the	
  power	
  and	
  potential	
  of	
  the	
  software	
  product	
  industry.	
  
Tell	
  political	
  leaders	
  that	
  you	
  care	
  about	
  making	
  governance	
  more	
  data-­‐driven,	
  small	
  businesses	
  
exponentially	
  more	
  productive,	
  and	
  communities	
  more	
  connected.	
  If	
  you	
  are	
  looking	
  to	
  restore	
  Brand	
  
India,	
  root	
  for	
  Indian	
  software	
  products	
  succeeding	
  worldwide.	
  You	
  can	
  help	
  bring	
  about	
  a	
  new	
  belief	
  
that	
  India	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  Product	
  Nation.	
  
We	
  all	
  have	
  the	
  chance	
  to	
  create	
  a	
  better	
  product	
  ecosystem	
  where	
  disruptive	
  innovation	
  thrives	
  and	
  
serves	
  the	
  cause	
  of	
  improving	
  government,	
  labor,	
  and	
  social	
  productivity.	
  For	
  those	
  of	
  us	
  who	
  believe	
  in	
  
the	
  Indian	
  software	
  industry,	
  there	
  isn’t	
  any	
  more	
  inspiring	
  work	
  than	
  making	
  iSPIRT	
  successful.	
  We	
  see	
  
dedication	
  of	
  our	
  Fellows,	
  Mavens,	
  Saarthis	
  and	
  Voyagers	
  on	
  every	
  challenge	
  the	
  foundation	
  works	
  on.	
  
It	
  inspires	
  us	
  to	
  help	
  people	
  pay	
  forward	
  to	
  their	
  professional	
  community	
  of	
  product	
  entrepreneurs,	
  and	
  
we	
  feel	
  very	
  lucky	
  to	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  support	
  them.	
  We	
  know	
  the	
  foundation	
  will	
  have	
  its	
  share	
  of	
  setbacks.	
  
But	
  we	
  feel	
  sure	
  we	
  will	
  have	
  lots	
  of	
  success	
  stories	
  to	
  share	
  in	
  the	
  years	
  ahead.	
  
Bharat	
  Goenka,	
  Jay	
  Pullur,	
  Naveen	
  Tewari,	
  Sharad	
  Sharma,	
  Vishnu	
  Dusad	
  
Governing	
  Council,	
  iSPIRT	
  Foundation	
  
	
  

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Software Products Will Transform India at Large

  • 1.       2014  iSPIRT   Annual  Letter     This  is  our  first  annual  letter.  Just  as  in  this  message,  we  will  continue  to  share  in  a  frank  way  what  our   goals  are  and  where  progress  is  being  made  and  where  it  is  not.  This  year  we  have  chosen  to  focus,  not   on  iSPIRT’s  initiatives  and  activities,  but    on  the  software  product  industry  itself.  We  discuss  how   software  products  will  transform  India  at  large  and  why  the  software  product  industry  is  strategic  to  our   country.  We  conclude  by  explaining  the  evolutionary  stages  the  rise  of  the  Indian  software  product   industry.   Software  Products  Will  Transform  India  at  Large       We  believe  that  the  new  generation  of  Indian  software  products  will  have  a  big  impact  on  improving   government,  labor,  and  social  productivity.  It  will  make  governance  more  data-­‐driven,  small  businesses   exponentially  more  productive,  and  communities  more  connected.   In  India,  the  majority  of  economic  activity  takes  place  in  the  informal  sector.  For  the  first  time  ever,  self-­‐ employed  individuals  are  able  to  use  technology  to  become  efficient  and  competitive.  For  instance,  a   self-­‐employed  driver  can  now  be  part  of  a  taxi  network  and  have  access  to  new  customers.  Or  a  small   bus  operator  can  use  RedBus  and  have  a  state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art  seat  management  system.  In  fact,  now  any   small  business  can  embrace  a  game  changing  business  application  easily.  This  is  creating  unprecedented   opportunities  for  individuals  and  smaller  firms  to  create  value  in  their  business.  As  this  revolution   unfolds,  it  has  the  potential  to  make  the  informal  sector  the  new  engine  of  economic  growth.   Large  businesses  everywhere  are  in  the  midst  of  massive  change  where  competitive  intensity  is   increasing,  where  barriers  to  entry  are  reducing  sharply,  and  where  margins  are  hard  to  sustain.  There   are  many  ways  to  characterize  the  shifts  taking  place.  Hierarchies  to  networks.  Stocks  to  flows.   Centralized  to  distributed.  Broadcast  to  peer-­‐driven.  One-­‐way  to  two-­‐way.  Command  and  control  to   community.  To  cope  with  all  this,  a  new  generation  of  IT  infrastructure  and  applications  is  getting   deployed.  Indian  software  products  are  making  their  mark  in  this  space  and  several  startups  have   become  leading  players  on  a  global  basis  in  their  specific  categories.   Software  Products  Industry  is  Strategic  to  India       Leadership  in  software  products  offers  a  unique  opportunity  to  re-­‐position  Brand  India.  Until  the  1990s,   there  was  no  industry  in  which  India  was  seen  as  a  leader;  no  industry  with  which  India’s  name  was   inextricably  linked.  That  changed  with  India’s  ascendance  in  the  software  services  industry.  When  India,   for  the  first  time,  was  featured  in  the  World  Economic  Forum  at  Davos;  when  Indian  industry  leaders   were  for  the  first  time  sought  out  by  foreign  governments  as  advisors;  even  when  an  Indian  industry  was  
  • 2.       for  the  first  time  the  reason  for  heated  debates  in  the  US  Congress  and  the  target  of  important   legislation  –  in  all  these  cases  it  was  India’s  success  in  the  software  services  industry  that  was  the  driver.     India’s  success  in  software  services  also  led  to  the  birth  of  a  whole  range  of  outsourcing  activities  to   India  including  BPO,  KPO  and  LPO.   Yet,  in  spite  of  the  huge  commercial  success  of  the  software  services  industry,  the  benefits  to  brand   India  have  been  circumscribed.  At  a  broad  level,  this  is  because  software  services  are  essentially  a   business-­‐to-­‐business  (B2B)  activity.  The  brands  of  software  services  companies  become  visible  only   thanks  to  the  persona  of  their  founders  and  CEOs,  their  performance  on  the  stock  market,  and  their   recruitment  activities.  Therefore,  their  brands  (and  by  extension,  brand  India)  don’t  get  a  high  level  of   visibility  outside  India  except  perhaps  in  MBA  curricula.       Though  India’s  advantage  in  software  services  transcends  cost  advantages,  it  is  not  unusual  even  today   to  see  India’s  success  in  software  services  referred  to  politely  as  a  labor  cost  arbitrage  story  or   sometimes  more  acerbically  by  references  to  cybercoolies  and  other  such  derogatory  terms    due  to  the   lack  of  inherent  IP.   Every  country  that  has  made  it  big  on  the  world  stage  in  the  last  many  decades  has  had  prominent   brands  that  have  powered  their  growth  story.  Twenty  years  ago,  it  was  Sony  from  Japan.  Today,  it  is   Samsung  from  the  Republic  of  Korea.  India  needs  similar  brands  that  can  power  its  global  image.     How  can  India  use  the  foundation  created  by  the  software  services  industry  to  go  to  the  next  level  in   terms  of  global  branding  and  soft  power?  Software  products  offer  one  viable  route.  If  India  were  to  have   the  equivalent  of  a  Google  or  a  Yahoo,  that  could  do  the  trick.     Software  Product  Industry  Evolution  Stages       Given  the  path  dependent  nature  of  hi-­‐tech  industry  evolution  it  is  essential  to  understand  the  context   of  current  industry  evolution.  Indian  Software  Product  Industry  (SPI)  has  five  stages  of  evolution.  The   Indian  SPI  is  now  entering  Stage  3.    
  • 3.           Stage  1:  Underground  Movement.  1999-­‐2010   During  the  11  years  since  1999  the  Indian  SPI  was  an  underground  movement.  Not  many  people,  even  in   the  IT  Industry,  were  interested  in  this  area.  Yet,  much  was  happening.  The  nascent  industry  was   building  confidence.     During  this  stage,  three  success  stories  came  to  the  fore  that  provided  confidence  to  broader  audience   that  SPI  can  take  root  in  India.  In  the  Large  Business  Application  Software  (LBAS)  segment,  i-­‐flex  showed   the  way.  Its  acquisition  for  over  $1  billion  dollars  by  Oracle  was  a  big  boost  to  Indian  SPI.  In  the  Small   Business  Application  Software  (SBAC),  Tally  sold  to  more  than  a  million  SMBs  in  India.  This  was  a  big   milestone  even  by  global  standards.  Tally  joined  a  select  club  of  software  product  companies  in  the   world  that  have  more  than  a  million  business  customers.  Finally,  out  of  Kolkata  no  less,  FusionCharts   sold  its  charting  software  to  over  ten  thousand  businesses  outside  India  without  having  any  sales  office   or  sales  presence  in  US.  This  success  galvanized  the  belief  in  India’s  ability  to  be  a  player  in  the  booming   global  SaaS  market.     Towards  2007,  we  saw  industry  leaders  in  Indian  SPI  come  together,  first  to  celebrate  success,  then  to   create  media  awareness  of  the  Industry  and  finally  to  create  public  goods  necessary  to  take  the  industry   forward.  
  • 4.       Stage  2:  Emergence  of  Indian  SPI.  2010-­‐2013.   The  three  success  stories  mentioned  earlier  –  i-­‐flex,  Tally  and  FusionCharts  –  acted  as  an  impetus  to  the   creation  of  SPI  startups.  Today  we  have  good  SPI  startup  density  in  Bangalore,  Pune  and  Chennai  with   NCR,  Mumbai  and  Hyderabad  also  showing  good  momentum.     SPI  Startup  density  in  India  is  now  high.  On  Angel  List1,  India  now  has  3.2  times  more  startups  (2123   versus  651)  than  Israel  which  is  a  shining  example  of  the  hi-­‐tech  industry.     Given  these  excellent  numbers,  we  don’t  need  policies  to  boost  SPI  startup  rates.  Instead  we  need   policies  and  institutions  to  reduce  SPI  startup  failure  rates  and  improve  outcomes.     Stage  3:  Maturation.  2014-­‐e2017   This  is  the  stage  where  the  SPI  with  a  critical  mass  of  companies  needs  to  consolidate  its  position.  This   stage  is  typically  characterized  by  a  string  of  positive  outcomes  –  substantial  VC  investments,  M&As  and   IPOs  –  that  give  the  industry  much  needed  validation  and  a  boost  of  confidence.   Conventional  wisdom,  not  just  in  India  but  across  the  world,  holds  that  2123  Indian  SPI  startups  listed  on   Angel  List  will  have  much  poorer  outcomes  than  the  651  Israeli  SPI  startups.  This  belief  is  supported  by   data.  An  iSPIRT  and  SignalHill  analysis2  reveals  that  India  has  the  worst  multiple  in  terms  of  M&A  exits.  In   Israel  the  M&A  exit  value  was  ~7X  of  the  VC/PE  investment  during  the  same  period.  In  US  the  multiple   was   ~5X.   In   India   it   was   only   1.1X   (and   this   too   was   inflated   because   it   counted   IT   Services   M&A   exits   as   well).     At   this   stage   of   evolution   of   Indian   SPI,   we   have   startups   but   have   poor   outcomes   for   those   startups.   Therefore   the   focus   has   to   be   on   improving   SPI   startup   outcomes   rather   than   boosting   SPI   startup   density.   If   this   is   not   done,   the   exceptionally   high   startup   failure   rates   will   trigger   disenchantment   amongst  potential  entrepreneurs.  This  can  bring  the  current  momentum  in  startup  density  growth  to  a   halt.     To  improve  SPI  startup  outcomes  several  areas  have  to  be  addressed.  These  range  from  addressing  early   stage  financing  gap,  to  providing  better  playbooks  to  SPI  startups,  to  having  privileged  access  to  strategic   technologies,  etc.  These  are  covered  in  more  detail  in  a  later  section.     Stage  4:  Building  Global  Ecosystems.  e2015-­‐e2019   The   speed   at   which   Nokia’s   handset   business   deteriorated   has   shocked   everybody.   It   went   from   being   a   market   leader   in   smartphones   to   being   unviable   as   a   company   in   less   than   20   months.   Nowadays,   Blackberry   is   undergoing   the   same   tragic   downtown   in   fortunes.   In   fact   this   movie   has   been   played   several  times  before  in  the  hi-­‐tech  industry.  Back  in  2001,  Glenayre  Technologies,  a  market  leader  in  the   two-­‐way  pager  business,  went  from  a  technology  darling  to  a  basket  case  in  under  two  years.  Further                                                                                                                           1 2 rd  Angel  List  is  the  leading  platform  for  technology  startups  looking  for  early-­‐stage  funding.  Data  as  of  3  Nov  2013.   th  This  is  dated  10  Oct  2013.  
  • 5.       back  in  time,  in  1985,  the  famous  Osborne  computer  had  suffered  the  same  fate.  Its  business  collapsed   in  one  year.   Why  do  some  good  firms  collapse  so  suddenly?  Nokia’s  CEO  Stephen  Elopprovides  the  answer  in  his  now   infamous  9th  Feb  2011  memo.  He  said:   “The   battle   of   devices   has   now   become   a   war   of   ecosystems,   where   ecosystems   include   not   only   the   hardware   and   software   of   the   device,   but   developers,   applications,   ecommerce,   advertising,   search,   social   applications,   location-­‐based   services,   unified   communications   and   many   other   things.   Our   competitors  aren't  taking  our  market  share  with  devices;  they  are  taking  our  market  share  with  an  entire   ecosystem.   This   means   we're   going   to   have   to   decide   how   we   either   build,   catalyse   or   join   an   ecosystem.”   In  many  cases,  the  very  success  of  a  product  firm  results  in  a  competitive  response  where  the  battle  of   products  becomes  the  war  of  ecosystems.  If  a  firm  has  not  planned  for  this  new  kind  of  competition,  it   quickly  loses  its  market  position  and  fades  away.   We   expect   that   there   will   be   about   five   software   products   companies   with   a   billion   dollar   market   cap   (e.g.  InMobi,  Zoho,  QuickHeal,  Pubmatic,  etc.)  in  the  coming  years.  Of  these,  at  least  one  of  them  will   have  to  engage  in  this  war  of  ecosystems  in  the  coming  years.  We  know  that  losing  this  ecosystem  war   has   delirious   consequences.   In   contrast,   winning   the   war   of   ecosystems   has   big   benefits.   By   turning   a   product   franchise   into   an   ecosystem,   a   company   becomes   less   vulnerable   and   has   better   financials.   There  are  other  benefits  as  well.  Microsoft  claims  an  employment  of  15m  in  its  ecosystem3.    SAP,  Google   and  OpenSource  ecosystems  also  report  similar  benefits.     There  are  significant  challenges  in  creating  ecosystems.  These  relate  to  three  areas.  First,  there  are  no   clear   guidelines   for   performing   correct   and   insightful   modeling   of   software   ecosystems.   Second,   conducting   an   ongoing   health   analysis   of   an   ecosystem   is   still   a   daunting   data   mining   task:   what   are   the   indicators  to  look  at?  How  can  data  be  found  on  the  revenues  of  our  partners?  How  many  new  entrants   join  the  ecosystem  every  year?  And  how  much  do  these  really  contribute?  Third,  relates  to  the  issue  of   Governance.  This  addresses  the  issue  of  how  to  govern  software  ecosystems  to  gain  measurable  success   in  terms  of  staying  power,  profit,  usage  and  participation.     India   has   not   yet   built   a   software   ecosystem   though   two   local   ecosystem   building   projects   are   underway.   Both   UIDAI   and   Akash   Tablets   are   trying   to   build   a   software   ecosystem   around   their   offerings.  This  is  a  good  for  India  to  strengthen  its  ecosystem  building  muscles.     In   time,   we   are   confident   that   at   least   one   Indian   SPI   firm   will   be   successful   in   building   an   ecosystem   around   its   products.   Only   when   this   happens,   will   it   signify   that   the   “next   Google”   or   the   “next   Microsoft”   has   been   born   from   India.   Getting   to   this   stage   is   something   that   (even)the   Israeli   hi-­‐tech                                                                                                                           3 http://www.informationweek.com/microsoft-­‐says-­‐its-­‐software-­‐ecosystem-­‐em/202404791  
  • 6.       industry,  despite  is  success,  has  not  been  able  to  do.  What  is  working  in  India’s  favor  is  the  presence  of  a   big  domestic  market  in  India.     Stage  5:  Outward  Investment.  e2019  onwards.   This   stage   is   characterized   by   outward   investments   to   deal   with   transformative   technologies   and   strengthening   of   the   moat   around   the   India   SPI   ecosystems.   It   is   only   at   this   stage   that   a   truly   sustainable  India  SPI  would  be  created.   Looking  Ahead   We  hope  you  will  help  get  the  word  out  on  the  power  and  potential  of  the  software  product  industry.   Tell  political  leaders  that  you  care  about  making  governance  more  data-­‐driven,  small  businesses   exponentially  more  productive,  and  communities  more  connected.  If  you  are  looking  to  restore  Brand   India,  root  for  Indian  software  products  succeeding  worldwide.  You  can  help  bring  about  a  new  belief   that  India  can  be  a  Product  Nation.   We  all  have  the  chance  to  create  a  better  product  ecosystem  where  disruptive  innovation  thrives  and   serves  the  cause  of  improving  government,  labor,  and  social  productivity.  For  those  of  us  who  believe  in   the  Indian  software  industry,  there  isn’t  any  more  inspiring  work  than  making  iSPIRT  successful.  We  see   dedication  of  our  Fellows,  Mavens,  Saarthis  and  Voyagers  on  every  challenge  the  foundation  works  on.   It  inspires  us  to  help  people  pay  forward  to  their  professional  community  of  product  entrepreneurs,  and   we  feel  very  lucky  to  be  able  to  support  them.  We  know  the  foundation  will  have  its  share  of  setbacks.   But  we  feel  sure  we  will  have  lots  of  success  stories  to  share  in  the  years  ahead.   Bharat  Goenka,  Jay  Pullur,  Naveen  Tewari,  Sharad  Sharma,  Vishnu  Dusad   Governing  Council,  iSPIRT  Foundation