- Insect life tables are used to track stage-specific mortality in insect populations. They show the number surviving and dying at each life stage. - Insect monitoring involves regular surveillance of insect populations, damage, and movement to assess pest levels and predict problems. Various monitoring techniques are used including visual counts, traps, and nets. - Insect forecasting makes predictions about future pest outbreaks and suitable control times based on past and present monitoring data, especially weather impacts on pests. Both short and long-term forecasts are used.

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Insect monitoring and
forecasting

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outline
• Insect life table
• Insect monitoring
• Insect forecasting

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Insect life tables
• A "life table" is a kind of bookkeeping system that
ecologists often use to keep track of stage-specific
mortality in the populations they study.
• The use of life tables as a convenient method for
summarizing the amount of mortality occurring in each
generation of an insect population was proposed by Morris
and Miller (1954).
• It is an especially useful approach in entomology where
developmental stages are discrete and mortality rates may
vary widely from one life stage to another.

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Cont..
• To create a life table, an ecologist follows the life
history of many individuals in a population, keeping
track of how many offspring each female produces,
when each one dies, and what caused its death.
• After amassing data from different populations, different
years, and different environmental conditions, the
ecologist summarizes this data by calculating average
mortality within each developmental stage.

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Example

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Cont..
• A life table can be created from the above data. Start with a cohort of 200 eggs (the
progeny of Mrs. Average Female).
• This number represents the maximum biotic potential of the species (i.e. the greatest
number of offspring that could be produced in one generation under ideal conditions).
• The first line of the life table lists the main cause(s) of death, the number dying, and the
percent mortality during the egg stage.
• In this example, an average of only 100 individuals survive the egg stage and become
larvae.
• The second line of the table lists the mortality experience of these 100 larvae: only 10 of
them survive to become pupae (90% mortality of the larvae).
• The third line of the table lists the mortality experience of the 10 pupae -- three-fifths die
of freezing.
• This leaves only 4 individuals alive in the adult stage to reproduce. If we assume a 1:1
sex ratio, then there are 2 males and 2 females to start the next generation.

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Insect monitoring
• Insect Monitor means to maintain regular surveillance
on insects aspects such as population, biology,
movement among many others.
• Why monitor ?
Often it may be difficult to identify the insects causing the
particular damage. If this is the case, the next option
available is to examine the symptoms of crop
damage. Use the diagnostic tool to help to identify the
insect pest causing the damage.

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Importance of monitoring
• To assess the pest situation and determine what sort of
pest activity is occurring
• For decision making
• To predict pest problems before they occur

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Monitoring techniques and procured
Monitoring guide lines
a. What to look for:
 Presence and evidence of pests
 Evidence of damage
Nature of damage
Where the damage is found
Are there still pests present in the damaged area
 Presence of natural enemies
 Evidence of potentially contributing activities to the pest problem
 If unrecognized pests are found, samples should be collected and
brought to the county extension office.

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Frequency of monitoring
b. Determined by the biology of the pest
 Determined by the crop, if a crop has a low threshold of damage, more intensive
monitoring may be needed at regular intervals (weekly and maybe more
frequently when a pest approaches a borderline to becoming a threat to a crop)
c. Size of area to monitor
 Depends on the crop, the farm size, and the pest
 Enough to provide good field representation or coverage
 Depends on the degree of accuracy required and the resources available
 The field is surveyed in a pre-arranged pattern, such as walking in an S, U, Z, V
or X shape

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Cont..
d. Record keeping:
 Accurate records are important for decision making and for
evaluating trends in pest populations season to season
If a monitoring form is developed, it should provide
information on:
Both harmful and beneficial insects
Identification of the field and the sample date
Sample method
Units of sample, e.g. insects per tree, infected fruits per plant

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Monitoring methods
a.Types of monitoring techniques
i. visual counts over a representative area
– - counting the number of pests present per plant, per leaf, per fruit, per terminal, per area
bases
– - damage counts which estimate pest population per plant, per area or per fruit (pre and post
harvest)
ii. pheromone traps
– - sticky traps which use pheromone bait to attract insects
iii. sweep nets
– - need to use a standardized sweep
– - sampling locations need to be consistent
– - in some cases sampling times need to be consistent
iiii. field history, look for patterns of pest problems.

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Cont..
• b. monitoring for insect pests
– i. visual counts
– ii. sweep nets
– iii. pheromone traps

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Pest Forecasting
Forecasting
• This is the process of making predictions of the future based on past
and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends.
• Forecasting of pest incidence or outbreak is based on information
obtained from pest surveillance.
Uses
- Predicting pest outbreak which needs control measure
- Suitable stage at which control measure gives maximum protection
Two types of pest forecasting
a. Short term forecasting - Based on 1 or 2 seasons
b. Long term forecasting - Based on affect of weather parameters on pest

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Objectives of Pest Surveillance
• To know existing and new pest species
• To assess pest population and damage at different
growth stage of crop
• To study the influence of weather parameters on pest
• To study changing pest status (Minor to major)
• To assess natural enemies and their influence on pests
• Effect of new cropping pattern and varieties on pest

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Survey
• Conducted to study the abundance of a pest species
Qualitative survey - Useful for detection of pest
Quantitative survey - Useful for enumeration of pest
Two types of survey - Roving survey and fixed plot
survey
Roving survey
• Assessment of pest population/damage from randomly
selected spots representing larger area
• Large area surveyed in short period
• Provides information on pest level over large area

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Cont..
Fixed plot survey
• Assessment of pest population/damage from a fixed
plot selected in a field. The data on pest
population/damage recorded periodic from sowing till
harvest. e.g. 1 sq.m. plots randomly selected from 5
spots in one acre of crop area in case of rice. From
each plot 10 plant selected at random. Total tillers and
tillers affected by stem borer in these 10 plants
counted. Total leaves and number affected by leaf
folder observed. Damage expressed as per cent

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Sampling Techniques
Absolute sampling - To count all the pests
occurring in a plot
Relative sampling - To measure pest in terms of
some values which can be compared over time and
space e.g. Light trap catch, Pheromone trap
Sticky trap
Light trap
Pheromone
traps

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Methods of sampling
a. In situ counts - Visual observation on number of insects on plant
canopy (either entire plot or randomly selected plot)
b. Knock down - Collecting insects from an area by removing from
crop and (Sudden trap) counting (Jarring)
c. Netting - Use of sweep net for hoppers, odonates, grasshopper etc.

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d. Norcotised collection - Quick moving insects
anaesthesised and counter.
e. Trapping :
Light trap - Phototropic insects
Pheromone trap - Species specific
Sticky trap - Sucking insects
Bait trap - Sorghum shootfly - Fishmeal trap
Emergence trap - For soil insects

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Cont..
f. Crop samples
Plant parts removed and pest counted e.g. Bollworms

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Stage of Sampling
• Usually most injurious stage counted
• Sometimes egg masses counted - Practical
considerations
• Hoppers - Nymphs and adult counted

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Cont..
• Sample Size
- Differs with nature of pest and crop
- Parger sample size gives accurate results
• Decision Making
- Population or damage assessed from the crop
- Compared with ETL and EIL
- When pest level crosses ETL, control measure has to
be taken to prevent pest from reducing EIL.

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Thank you!