Expanded powerpoint of my address on the Military Effects panel at the United Nations GGE on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS). November 14, 2017 - Geneva, Switzerland Requested to speak on: - Some of the drivers for the deployment of AI/AS technologies - Deployment environments where confidence could grow in the use of AI-enabled systems - Asymmetric force application

1. United Nations Group of Governmental Experts Meeting:
Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Military Effects Panel
Dr. Lydia Kostopoulos
@LKCYBER
November 14, 2017
College of Information and Cyberspace
National Defense University
U.S.A.

2. DISCLAIMER:
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the National Defense University, the College of Information and Cyberspace, or the
United States Government.

3. TRUST CULTURE AVAILABILITY
Drivers for the Deployment of AI Technologies
Rational State Actors

4. TRUST
CULTURE AVAILABILITY
Autonomous machines perform as
expected and within parameters
outlined by human.
• Authenticity of the machine
learning environment.
• Integrity of the data used.
Source: Geospatial World

5. Human
Only
Machine
Only
Human is
informed by
machine.
Human is
assisted by
machine.
Human supervises work done by machine.
Close visual
supervision
Remote
supervision
Supervision
through
alerts
With ability for human to modify, intervene
and change or stop order/process.
Human gives
command
without ability
to change
course.
Human has
confidence in
outcome.
Machine performs a specific, unambiguous task
Human gives a command in the form of objectives with
guidance.
The machine has the the authority to
execute full command without
reporting back.
Human has
ability to
track
machine’s
activities.
Human has
no ability to
track
machine’s
activities.
Machine performs a specific, unambiguous, or ambiguous task
Human-Machine Teaming
Range for Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems Discussion
Lydia Kostopoulos, PhD
2017
Human gives a
command in the form
of objectives with
guidance.
The machine does not
have the authority to
execute full command
without reporting
back.
Human has ability to
track, modify,
intervene and/or stop
the order or process.
Human has
ability to
modify,
intervene
and/or stop
the order or
process.

6. Machine
Only
Human gives a command in the form of objectives with
guidance.
The machine has the the authority to
execute full command without
reporting back.
Human has
ability to
track
machine’s
activities.
Human has
no ability to
track
machine’s
activities.
Machine performs a specific, unambiguous, or ambiguous task
Human gives a
command in the form
of objectives with
guidance.
The machine does not
have the authority to
execute full command
without reporting
back.
Human has ability to
track, modify,
intervene and/or stop
the order or process.
Human has
ability to
modify,
intervene
and/or stop
the order or
process.
I. Reduction of cost
(through process optimization, efficient management of limited
resources)
II. Reducing burden on the soldier/commander
(physically or intellectually)
Confidence Growth
III. Successful synthetic training & physical testing
Demonstrated ability to successfully:
- Operate on intent with minimal to no call-back for additional
information or permissions.
- Assimilate knowledge transfer from other autonomous systems’
data, experience, decisions etc (speed advantage).
- Operate within “moral” bounds/limits assigned to the algorithm
complying with rules of distinction and proportionality; while finding
creative solutions to achieve mission objectives.
- Communicate (to humans) actionable anticipatory intelligence in
meaningful ways that directly fall inline with its mission and mandate;
and to autonomously act successfully with the incorporation of
anticipatory intelligence (speed advantage).
IV. Explainable AI/Algorithms
Ability to explain (and confidently “fix”) AI algorithms will lead to
greater trust in (expected) outcomes.
Detect, Select, Engage

7. TRUST
CULTURE
AVAILABILITY
“New” technology
is normal
Anecdote
New technology is
novel and
interesting
New technology
goes against
human nature
Digital Culture Evolution
Food for thought
• Acceptability of changing technology in battlefield, seeing technology as one with AI
and a justifiable and “normal” and fair use of military tech assets to achieve mission
success and political objectives.
• Moving forward, as digital natives become commanders, their perception of what
types of weapons are acceptable in the battlefield may be different from ours.
• An AI 9/11 style attack conducted by a terrorist organization could push society to
embrace the need to incorporate machine learning in all facets of society with a
renewed drive to make LAWS fit within the values of our society.

8. TRUST CULTURE
AVAILABILITY
• Availability refers to the availability of the
technology to be used.
• The democratization of technologies also
will reach hostile non-state political
actors who do not abide by international
norms.
• Tech won’t matter as much as creativity
in it’s use  that will bring decisive
advantage.

9. CULTURE AVAILABILITY TRUST
Asymmetric Force Application:
Alternative perspective for non-state hostile actors
[ex: terrorist organizations]

10. Culturally
Acceptable
Achievable
Military Effects
Technologically
Possible
Legally
Permissible
Area of probable lethal autonomous weapons usage
Culturally
Acceptable
Achievable
Military Effects
Technologically
Possible
Law Abiding Actors Non-Law Abiding Actors