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SOURCE: http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-
remains-largest-revenue-source/
Property tax comes from housing. More new construction means
more property taxes collected. The
better (so more expensive the home) the more property taxes
collected. Defaults, foreclosures can
drive down house values and reduce property taxes. You are
simply trying to understand some
forecasting regarding the future (maybe near-term future) of
property taxes to be collected. CERNIK
Property Tax Remains Largest Revenue Source
According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, taxes paid
by homeowners and other real
estate owners remain the largest single source of revenue for
state and local governments. At
34%, property taxes represent a significantly larger share than
the next largest sources: individual
income taxes (24%) and sales taxes (21%).
State and local government property tax collections continue to
increase on a nominal basis.
From the third quarter of 2012 through the end of the second
quarter of 2013, approximately
$479 billion in taxes were paid by property owners. This was a
small increase from the
previous trailing four-quarter record of $477 billion, set last
quarter.
The modest changes throughout the Great Recession in nominal
state and local government
property tax collections are due in large part to lagging property
assessments and the ability of
local jurisdiction to make annual adjustments to tax rates. In
general, declining property values
are not reflected in the system until a few years after the decline
occurs. Once assessments are
updated, property tax authorities can adjust rates thus
maintaining a desired level of collection.
http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-remains-
largest-revenue-source/
http://www.census.gov/govs/qtax/
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/piechart.png
As state and local government property tax collections
increased in recent years, the share of
local tax collections due to property taxes fell from a high of
37.4% in the second quarter of
2010 to the current share of 33.5%. The average share for
property taxes since 2000 is 32.4%.
The changing share of local collections is due predominantly to
fluctuations in all other tax
receipts. State and local individual income tax, corporate
income tax, and sales tax collections
are very responsive to changing economic conditions. For
example, in the second quarter of 2009
state and local governments collected $76 billion in individual
income tax. In the second quarter
of 2013, the most recent, state and local governments collected
$114 billion in individual income
tax. The dramatic 50% increase in state and local individual
income tax receipts is due to
improving economic conditions, rising incomes, and higher
rates in several states.
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_13.png
The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index – National Index grew
by 7.1% on a not seasonally
adjusted basis in the second quarter and 10.1% over the
previous four quarters. Although house
prices remain on a path toward recovery, one should not expect
property tax collections to
increase significantly. Just as declining property values did not
lead to a significant decrease in
property tax collections, it is unlikely that rising property
values will lead to dramatic increases
in property tax collection. Instead, lagging assessments and the
ability of local jurisdiction to
make annual adjustments should lead to only modest increases.
* Data footnote: Census data for property tax collections
include taxes paid for all real estate
assets (as well as personal property), including owner-occupied
homes, rental housing,
commercial real estate, and agriculture. However, housing’s
share is by far the largest when
considering the stock of both owner-occupied and rental
housing units.
http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/house-prices-
remain-on-a-path-toward-recovery/
http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/house-prices-
remain-on-a-path-toward-recovery/
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_22.png
New Residential Construction:
You can find it here:
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html
Some of it got cut off.
New Residential Construction
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch
Public Information Office
301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030
[email protected][email protected]
FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, AUGUST
16, 2017
MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, JULY
2017
Release Number: CB17-133
August 16, 2017 - The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
jointly announced the following new residential construction
statistics for July 2017:
NEW RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION
JULY 2017
Building Permits: 1,223,000
Housing Starts: 1,155,000
Housing Completions: 1,175,000
Next Release: September 19, 2017
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017
Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in
July were at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 1,223,000. This is 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) below the
revised June rate of 1,275,000, but is 4.1
percent (±1.8 percent) above the July 2016 rate of 1,175,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a
rate of 811,000; this is unchanged from the revised June figure
of 811,000. Authorizations of units in
buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 377,000 in
July.
Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000. This is 4.8
percent (±10.2 percent)* below the revised June estimate of
1,213,000 and is 5.6 percent (±8.5 percent)*
below the July 2016 rate of 1,223,000. Single-family housing
starts in July were at a rate of 856,000; this is
0.5 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the revised June figure of
860,000. The July rate for units in buildings
with five units or more was 287,000.
Housing Completions
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,175,000. This is
6.2 percent (±14.3 percent)* below the revised June estimate of
1,252,000, but is 8.2 percent (±12.6
percent)* above the July 2016 rate of 1,086,000. Single-family
housing completions in July were at a rate
of 814,000; this is 1.6 percent (±11.9 percent)* below the
revised June rate of 827,000. The July rate for
units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000.
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17
T
ho
us
an
ds
o
f U
ni
ts
New Residential Construction
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Permits
Starts
Completions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch
Public Information Office
301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030
[email protected]
[email protected]
The August report is scheduled for release on September 19,
2017. View the full schedule in the Economic
Briefing Room: <www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The
full text and tables for this release can be
found at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/>.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that
month-to-month changes in seasonally
adjusted statistics often show movements which may be
irregular. It may take three months to establish an
underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months
for total starts, and five months for total
completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from
sample surveys and are subject to sampling
variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and
variance from response, nonreporting, and
undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most
recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever
a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears
in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to
+5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to
have occurred. All ranges given for
percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and
account only for sampling variability. If a range
does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If
it does contain zero, the change is not
statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was
an increase or decrease. The same policies
apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown
in the tables. On average, the preliminary
seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing
starts and housing completions are revised 2
percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and
sampling variability can be found on our website.
<www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_collected
/ >
America’s Economy Mobile App
The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19
key economic indicators released from the
Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
<www.census.gov/mobile/economy/>
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets
developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing
statistics more accessible than ever before.
<www.census.gov/developers/>
‐X‐
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such
cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that
the actual change is different
from zero.
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized in
Permit‐Issuing Places
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 1a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,175
718 30 427 106 51 188
106 605 395 276 166
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,200
743 36 421 117 53 192
112 606 407 285 171
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,270
749 39 482 142 53 181
113 618 408 329 175
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,285
779 32 474 116 59 202
113 616 420 351 187
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,255
786 41 428 119 55 187
120 608 419 341 192
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,266
830 39 397 131 54 187
119 604 452 344 205
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,300
806 29 465 153 59 198
124 653 451 296 172
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,219
834 45 340 117 54 247
136 585 448 270 196
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,260
826 37 397 136 53 192
128 623 456 309 189
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,228
794 36 398 120 53 192
124 579 424 337 193
May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,168
779 32 357 122 52 173
108 579 436 294 183
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,275
811 35 429 104 57 207
120 622 445 342 189
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223
811 35 377 124 56 171
116 613 452 315 187
. Average RSE (%)
1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 6
2 3 5 3 4 2
2 2 3
Percent Change
2
Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
‐12.1% 19.2% ‐1.8% ‐17.4% ‐3.3% ‐1.4% 1.6% ‐7.9% ‐1.1%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3 . . . . . . ± 0.9 ± 1.1 ± 7.3 ± 2.3 ± 6.9 ± 11.0 ± 2.5 ± 2.2
± 1.3 ± 1.5 ± 2.1 ± 2.0
Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1% 13.0% 16.7%
‐11.7% 17.0% 9.8% ‐9.0% 9.4% 1.3% 14.4% 14.1% 12.7%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 1.8 ± 2.1 ± 10.9
± 3.8 ± 5.0 ± 7.4 ± 4.0 ± 2.9 ± 3.2 ± 3.2 ± 2.1 ± 3.2
Table 1b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,182.6
696.0 32.1 454.5 162.0 52.4 170.6 104.7
572.8 378.2 277.2 160.7
2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,206.6
750.8 34.8 421.1 116.4 54.3 186.1 112.4
594.5 406.0 309.6 178.1
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X X X X X X
X X X X X
2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 688.1
439.1 19.0 230.0 63.4 30.7 104.0 65.8
347.5 238.9 173.2 103.7
2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732.5
487.2 20.2 225.0 70.1 32.0 108.9 70.7
366.4 270.0 187.1 114.5
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 4 1 2 4 3
3 1 2 1 2
Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 6.5% 11.0% 6.3%
‐2.2% 10.6% 4.2% 4.7% 7.5% 5.4% 13.0% 8.0% 10.4%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3
. . . . . . ± 0.6 ± 0.8 ± 6.5 ± 1.0 ± 2.7 ± 3.8 ± 2.5 ± 2.3
± 1.1 ± 0.7 ± 0.8 ± 1.8
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97.9
61.2 2.6 34.1 9.1 4.5 16.6
9.4 49.6 32.8 22.7 14.5
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.6
71.3 3.6 36.8 11.0 5.0 19.4
11.9 55.1 38.3 26.2 16.2
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.7
63.4 3.6 44.6 13.4 5.0 18.4
10.7 51.9 33.6 28.0 14.2
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104.0
61.6 2.7 39.7 9.5 5.1 18.9
10.1 48.7 32.3 26.9 14.2
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.5
55.9 3.2 35.3 9.6 4.4 14.6
8.8 44.2 29.3 26.1 13.5
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.8
55.5 3.0 36.4 10.5 3.7 11.3
6.5 45.8 31.2 27.2 14.1
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.3
53.6 1.9 31.8 9.6 3.5 10.0
5.7 48.6 33.3 19.2 11.2
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.8
57.8 3.0 24.0 6.4 3.0 12.7
7.1 45.8 34.0 19.9 13.6
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.5
77.1 3.1 32.3 10.8 4.6 15.9
11.2 57.2 43.9 28.7 17.5
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.6
69.2 2.6 30.8 9.7 4.6 16.8
11.2 48.2 36.8 28.0 16.7
May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.0
78.3 3.0 31.6 11.7 5.2 18.0
12.0 54.7 42.2 28.6 18.9
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.9
81.8 3.6 42.5 11.0 5.9 21.3
12.8 59.9 42.9 35.6 20.2
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.4
69.1 2.8 28.5 10.8 5.0 14.8
10.5 49.5 37.5 25.3 16.2
. Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 6 2 3 5 3
4 2 2 2 3
p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2 Computed using unrounded data
3
If the 90 percent confidence interval includes zero, there is ins
ufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different
from zero
Note: Year‐to‐date permits estimates reflect revisions not distr
ubuted to months.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
Period
West
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized,
but Not Started, at End of Period
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 2a ‐ Seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
65 S 64 18 5 16 8
62 35 35 17
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
71 S 59 16 6 17 9
63 39 35 17
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
70 S 68 17 6 18 10
68 38 36 16
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
67 S 65 14 6 18 9
66 37 35 15
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
66 S 71 14 6 20 8
65 35 40 17
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
70 S 66 14 5 20 8
68 39 37 18
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
72 S 68 15 6 19 8
69 40 40 18
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
74 S 60 12 5 21 9
66 41 36 19
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
77 S 59 13 5 19 9
69 44 37 19
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
77 S 64 15 6 22 10
67 42 38 19
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
80 S 65 18 6 21 9
71 46 36 19
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
77 S 65 13 6 21 9
73 43 37 19
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
77 S 65 12 6 19 8
76 44 37 19
. Average RSE (%)
1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 X 10
20 15 16 16 7 7
11 14
Percent Change
2
Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0% 0.0% S 0.0%
‐7.7% 0.0% ‐9.5% ‐11.1% 4.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3 . . . . . . ± 3.6 ± 4.5 X ± 6.1 ± 14.9 ± 13.8 ± 10.0 ± 16.6
± 5.7 ± 6.1 ± 5.7 ± 5.9
Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9% 18.5% S 1.6%
‐33.3% 20.0% 18.8% 0.0% 22.6% 25.7% 5.7% 11.8%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 11.8 ± 9.7 X
± 22.7 ± 30.0 ± 24.3 ± 31.1 ± 24.9 ± 17.7 ± 13.6 ± 15.0
± 15.6
Table 2b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130.9
64.9 1.7 64.3 18.4 5.2 15.2
7.7 63.2 35.1 34.1 16.8
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.9
71.6 1.5 59.8 16.7 5.4 17.5
9.3 64.5 39.8 34.3 17.0
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140.2
71.4 1.4 67.3 16.3 5.9 20.2
10.3 68.6 38.8 35.0 16.3
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129.6
64.6 1.4 63.7 13.0 5.4 19.8
8.9 64.5 35.6 32.3 14.6
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130.9
61.3 2.2 67.4 12.9 5.4 19.5
6.8 62.2 33.3 36.3 15.8
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135.9
66.6 2.7 66.6 13.9 5.3 17.7
7.0 67.3 37.0 37.1 17.4
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137.3
67.9 2.6 66.8 14.4 5.6 17.0
6.7 67.6 38.1 38.3 17.5
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131.5
69.9 1.4 60.1 12.3 5.2 19.4
7.6 64.7 39.3 35.1 17.8
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144.6
82.8 1.9 59.9 13.3 5.2 21.6
10.8 70.7 46.5 39.0 20.3
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143.7
78.3 1.5 64.0 15.1 5.6 21.7
10.4 67.7 43.2 39.3 19.0
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151.3
83.6 1.2 66.4 18.1 6.6 21.4
9.5 72.1 47.1 39.6 20.5
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.9
83.9 2.0 69.0 14.9 6.8 21.4
10.1 76.7 45.5 42.0 21.4
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143.7
75.7 2.3 65.8 12.7 5.5 18.3
7.9 76.8 43.4 35.8 18.9
. Average RSE (%)
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 34
10 20 15 16 16 7
7 11 14
p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2
Computed using unrounded data
3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an ex
plantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
as of that date without regard to the months of original
permit issuance. Cancelled, abandoned, expired, and revoked p
ermits are excluded.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
Note: These data represent the number of housing units authori
zed in all months up to and including the last day of the reportin
g period and not started
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Started
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 3a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223
772 S 443 134 59 157 108
637 427 295 178
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,164
727 S 420 133 52 170 113
562 377 299 185
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,062
783 S 265 95 62 150 114
539 427 278 180
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,328
871 S 447 162 68 198 125
624 463 344 215
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,149
823 S 323 83 59 216 142
581 442 269 180
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,268
808 S 449 89 58 222 128
566 418 391 204
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,236
815 S 418 125 59 202 137
678 453 231 166
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,288
877 S 392 111 67 182 163
658 448 337 199
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,189
824 S 355 116 65 139 105
633 466 301 188
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,154
823 S 314 85 47 200 124
562 449 307 203
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,129
795 S 320 85 55 165 140
564 410 315 190
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,213
860 S 346 153 61 211 136
529 453 320 210
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,155
856 S 287 129 67 179 126
532 462 315 201
. Average RSE (%)
1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 X 14
16 12 13 10 6 6
8 7
Percent Change
2
Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐4.8% ‐0.5% S
‐17.1% ‐15.7% 9.8% ‐15.2% ‐7.4% 0.6% 2.0% ‐1.6% ‐4.3%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3 . . . . . . ± 10.2 ± 8.5 X ± 29.8 ± 36.8 ± 32.8 ± 24.3
± 24.7 ± 12.4 ± 12.5 ± 22.3 ± 11.8
Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐5.6% 10.9% S
‐35.2% ‐3.7% 13.6% 14.0% 16.7% ‐16.5% 8.2% 6.8% 12.9%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 8.5 ± 9.0 X
± 18.0 ± 29.8 ± 30.4 ± 25.4 ± 26.5 ± 10.8 ± 12.6 ± 21.4
± 22.7
Table 3b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,111.8
714.5 11.5 385.8 138.1 54.8 152.6 107.3
555.5 387.1 265.6 165.2
2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,173.8
781.5 11.5 380.8 116.1 60.1 182.3 120.9
584.6 421.1 290.9 179.4
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1 16 5 4 3 3
3 2 2 3 2
2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687.2
460.8 6.7 219.7 67.7 34.4 101.9
68.5 353.5 253.5 164.0 104.4
2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 703.8
500.4 6.7 196.8 65.8 34.1 104.4
75.5 351.1 271.6 182.5 119.2
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1 17 7 7 4 4
2 3 2 4 2
Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 2.4% 8.6% ‐1.2%
‐10.4% ‐2.8% ‐0.9% 2.4% 10.2% ‐0.7% 7.1% 11.3% 14.2%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3
. . . . . . ± 3.6 ± 2.8 ± 36.1 ± 10.1 ± 13.6 ± 9.3 ± 8.7 ± 7.1
± 5.8 ± 3.9 ± 6.7 ± 6.0
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115.2
72.6 0.7 41.8 12.7 5.6 15.7
11.1 58.3 38.5 28.4 17.4
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.8
66.5 1.5 34.8 11.6 4.9 15.5
10.8 49.6 34.3 26.1 16.6
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95.0
67.4 1.4 26.2 8.7 5.5 14.8
11.2 46.9 35.8 24.5 14.9
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114.5
73.4 0.9 40.2 14.9 6.4 18.7
12.2 52.1 37.7 28.8 17.2
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.8
60.6 0.2 27.0 6.8 4.8 17.4
11.3 43.4 31.7 20.3 12.8
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.5
52.9 0.8 32.8 6.4 4.1 13.9
7.0 39.0 28.2 27.2 13.5
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82.3
53.1 0.2 29.0 8.0 3.4 10.7
6.2 48.0 32.4 15.6 11.1
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.8
58.8 1.3 27.7 6.6 3.5 8.9
7.6 48.4 33.6 23.8 14.1
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97.1
69.5 0.7 27.0 8.8 4.9 9.9
7.3 53.8 41.1 24.7 16.1
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105.2
76.9 1.4 26.8 7.7 4.4 18.8
12.3 50.3 40.7 28.4 19.5
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106.0
76.9 1.2 28.0 7.9 5.2 16.8
14.6 52.5 39.1 28.9 18.0
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116.3
84.1 0.6 31.6 14.5 6.1 21.3
14.5 49.7 42.8 30.8 20.7
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109.0
81.1 1.2 26.7 12.3 6.5 17.9
12.9 48.4 41.9 30.4 19.7
. Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
4 36 14 16 12 13
10 6 6 8 7
p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2 Computed using unrounded data
3
See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an exp
lantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Under
Construction at End of Period
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 4a ‐ Seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,028
431 S 586 192 51 135 70
446 212 255 98
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,034
427 S 596 192 49 136 70
446 208 260 100
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,033
432 S 590 190 49 139 72
442 210 262 101
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,053
442 S 599 196 51 142 73
447 213 268 105
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,046
447 S 588 192 52 144 74
442 214 268 107
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,062
449 S 602 191 53 144 73
448 214 279 109
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,071
447 S 613 193 52 147 73
449 212 282 110
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,080
455 S 614 194 54 151 76
452 215 283 110
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,074
454 S 610 189 52 149 73
452 218 284 111
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,074
457 S 607 190 51 151 74
445 219 288 113
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,068
459 S 599 184 51 154 76
442 219 288 113
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065
460 S 596 184 50 152 76
442 221 287 113
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,063
462 S 592 186 49 152 77
435 221 290 115
. Average RSE (%)
1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 X 6
8 5 4 5 3 4
5 4
Percent Change
2
Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐0.2% 0.4% S ‐0.7%
1.1% ‐2.0% 0.0% 1.3% ‐1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 1.8%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3 . . . . . . ± 1.0 ± 1.6 X ± 1.3 ± 1.9 ± 4.9 ± 2.8 ± 3.3 ± 1.6
± 2.7 ± 1.5 ± 1.8
Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4% 7.2% S 1.0%
‐3.1% ‐3.9% 12.6% 10.0% ‐2.5% 4.2% 13.7% 17.3%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 3.4 ± 3.1 X ± 5.8
± 10.8 ± 7.5 ± 6.1 ± 5.7 ± 5.3 ± 4.4 ± 5.6 ± 6.9
Table 4b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,050.8
449.7 10.8 590.3 193.8 52.0 139.0 73.2
456.2 220.7 261.8 103.8
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,049.4
447.6 11.3 590.5 192.1 50.5 140.3 74.6
452.6 216.7 264.4 105.9
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,051.6
450.7 11.4 589.5 191.2 50.3 143.5 76.2
450.9 218.9 266.0 105.3
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,061.4
453.3 11.6 596.5 196.2 52.0 145.1 76.5
450.2 217.4 269.9 107.3
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,049.9
448.5 10.6 590.8 192.6 52.3 146.3 76.1
443.1 214.2 267.9 105.9
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,039.0
427.7 10.6 600.7 189.5 51.9 142.1 71.2
435.5 202.3 271.9 102.3
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,045.8
424.4 10.5 610.9 191.0 50.7 142.5 68.6
437.4 201.1 275.0 104.0
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,051.1
430.4 11.2 609.5 190.9 51.6 143.7 69.5
441.0 205.9 275.6 103.5
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052.6
435.0 10.4 607.2 187.4 50.7 143.2 67.8
443.1 210.3 278.9 106.1
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,071.4
450.9 9.9 610.6 189.9 50.4 147.8
70.1 445.1 217.8 288.7 112.5
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,077.5
461.4 10.0 606.1 185.4 50.7 153.9 75.2
447.2 221.7 291.1 113.8
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,083.3
473.1 9.3 601.0 186.3 51.0 155.4
78.8 449.5 226.8 292.2 116.4
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,089.2
485.0 9.4 594.8 188.4 50.9 156.9 81.6
446.1 230.5 297.9 122.0
. Average RSE (%)
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 14
6 8 5 4 5 3
4 5 4
p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2
Computed using unrounded data
3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an ex
plantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Completed
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 5a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,086
748 S 331 96 49 174 123
535 414 281 162
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,040
744 S 288 130 63 150 100
541 420 219 161
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,005
718 S 273 97 56 118 103
537 384 253 175
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,067
755 S 305 82 49 189 120
538 424 258 162
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,203
766 S 426 110 48 180 126
693 432 220 160
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,096
765 S 323 102 50 184 120
574 414 236 181
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,083
802 S 277 84 67 174 134
611 459 214 142
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,161
763 S 382 119 40 123 108
575 402 344 213
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,194
810 S 368 111 60 188 134
629 449 266 167
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,098
774 S 301 88 60 183 127
591 420 236 167
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,180
799 S 369 138 54 146 120
600 426 296 199
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,252
827 S 416 144 63 215 129
550 424 343 211
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,175
814 S 354 109 78 176 112
634 461 256 163
. Average RSE (%)
1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 5 X 14
20 21 15 10 7 8
10 7
Percent Change
2
Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐6.2% ‐1.6% S
‐14.9% ‐24.3% 23.8% ‐18.1% ‐13.2% 15.3% 8.7% ‐25.4%
‐22.7%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3 . . . . . . ± 14.3 ± 11.9 X ± 28.2 ± 42.1 ± 61.3 ± 30.1
± 14.3 ± 20.2 ± 18.7 ± 19.2 ± 11.0
Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2% 8.8% S 6.9%
13.5% 59.2% 1.1% ‐8.9% 18.5% 11.4% ‐8.9% 0.6%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 12.6 ± 11.3 X
± 25.8 ± 55.5 ± 82.0 ± 23.8 ± 18.5 ± 18.8 ± 17.8 ± 22.4
± 18.7
Table 5b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 968.2
647.9 10.0 310.3 92.6 46.6 154.4 102.7
489.8 351.9 231.5 146.7
2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,059.7
738.4 10.4 311.0 99.5 55.2 164.0 116.8
551.3 402.9 245.0 163.5
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 18 5 6 6 3
2 2 2 3 3
2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571.2
396.4 6.1 168.6 51.1 29.8 87.0
62.0 296.0 218.1 137.1 86.5
2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 638.7
435.5 6.7 196.5 61.7 32.1 92.2
64.2 331.4 241.0 153.4 98.2
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 16 6 6 7 4
2 3 3 3 2
Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 11.8% 9.9% 9.8%
16.5% 20.8% 7.7% 5.9% 3.5% 12.0% 10.5% 11.9% 13.5%
. 90 percent confidence interval
3
. . . . . . ± 4.9 ± 4.5 ± 33.1 ± 13.6 ± 14.6 ± 11.8 ± 9.3
± 4.9 ± 7.4 ± 6.3 ± 8.4 ± 9.2
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93.4
61.2 0.7 31.5 8.6 4.1 15.5
10.6 44.8 33.2 24.5 13.2
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.0
66.0 0.9 31.1 12.9 5.7 14.3
8.9 50.3 37.2 20.5 14.3
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.2
63.7 1.3 25.3 9.3 5.5 11.3
9.9 46.9 32.7 22.8 15.5
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96.7
70.0 0.6 26.1 7.2 4.4 17.8
11.9 48.5 38.7 23.2 15.0
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0
67.3 0.8 31.9 9.4 4.7 16.0
11.9 55.6 36.1 19.0 14.6
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.6
75.0 0.6 28.0 9.5 5.0 17.7
12.2 54.0 40.1 22.4 17.7
2017
January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.6
55.0 0.3 19.4 5.6 4.4 11.3
8.5 43.5 32.9 14.3 9.2
February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.9
52.7 1.1 25.1 7.5 2.3 7.6
6.6 40.6 29.2 23.1 14.5
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.0
62.4 1.3 28.3 8.0 4.0 13.3
9.2 50.0 36.1 20.7 13.0
April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4
60.1 1.6 21.7 6.3 4.3 13.9
9.9 45.3 33.0 17.8 12.8
May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.1
66.9 1.0 30.3 11.6 4.8 11.9
9.8 49.6 35.3 25.0 17.0
June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.2
71.7 0.9 38.6 13.4 5.9 18.7
10.7 48.5 36.7 30.6 18.3
July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.5
66.8 0.7 33.0 9.2 6.4 15.5
9.5 53.9 37.7 21.9 13.2
. Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
5 40 14 20 21 15
10 7 8 10 7
p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2 Computed using unrounded data
3
See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an exp
lantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
newresconst_auto_textnewresconst_auto_tables

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SOURCE httpeyeonhousing.org20130924property-tax-remai.docx

  • 1. SOURCE: http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax- remains-largest-revenue-source/ Property tax comes from housing. More new construction means more property taxes collected. The better (so more expensive the home) the more property taxes collected. Defaults, foreclosures can drive down house values and reduce property taxes. You are simply trying to understand some forecasting regarding the future (maybe near-term future) of property taxes to be collected. CERNIK Property Tax Remains Largest Revenue Source According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, taxes paid by homeowners and other real estate owners remain the largest single source of revenue for state and local governments. At 34%, property taxes represent a significantly larger share than the next largest sources: individual income taxes (24%) and sales taxes (21%). State and local government property tax collections continue to increase on a nominal basis.
  • 2. From the third quarter of 2012 through the end of the second quarter of 2013, approximately $479 billion in taxes were paid by property owners. This was a small increase from the previous trailing four-quarter record of $477 billion, set last quarter. The modest changes throughout the Great Recession in nominal state and local government property tax collections are due in large part to lagging property assessments and the ability of local jurisdiction to make annual adjustments to tax rates. In general, declining property values are not reflected in the system until a few years after the decline occurs. Once assessments are updated, property tax authorities can adjust rates thus maintaining a desired level of collection. http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-remains- largest-revenue-source/ http://www.census.gov/govs/qtax/ http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/piechart.png As state and local government property tax collections increased in recent years, the share of local tax collections due to property taxes fell from a high of
  • 3. 37.4% in the second quarter of 2010 to the current share of 33.5%. The average share for property taxes since 2000 is 32.4%. The changing share of local collections is due predominantly to fluctuations in all other tax receipts. State and local individual income tax, corporate income tax, and sales tax collections are very responsive to changing economic conditions. For example, in the second quarter of 2009 state and local governments collected $76 billion in individual income tax. In the second quarter of 2013, the most recent, state and local governments collected $114 billion in individual income tax. The dramatic 50% increase in state and local individual income tax receipts is due to improving economic conditions, rising incomes, and higher rates in several states. http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_13.png The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index – National Index grew by 7.1% on a not seasonally adjusted basis in the second quarter and 10.1% over the previous four quarters. Although house
  • 4. prices remain on a path toward recovery, one should not expect property tax collections to increase significantly. Just as declining property values did not lead to a significant decrease in property tax collections, it is unlikely that rising property values will lead to dramatic increases in property tax collection. Instead, lagging assessments and the ability of local jurisdiction to make annual adjustments should lead to only modest increases. * Data footnote: Census data for property tax collections include taxes paid for all real estate assets (as well as personal property), including owner-occupied homes, rental housing, commercial real estate, and agriculture. However, housing’s share is by far the largest when considering the stock of both owner-occupied and rental housing units. http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/house-prices- remain-on-a-path-toward-recovery/ http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/house-prices- remain-on-a-path-toward-recovery/ http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_22.png New Residential Construction:
  • 5. You can find it here: http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html Some of it got cut off. New Residential Construction http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030 [email protected][email protected] FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 16, 2017 MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, JULY 2017 Release Number: CB17-133 August 16, 2017 - The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for July 2017: NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
  • 6. JULY 2017 Building Permits: 1,223,000 Housing Starts: 1,155,000 Housing Completions: 1,175,000 Next Release: September 19, 2017 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017 Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,223,000. This is 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised June rate of 1,275,000, but is 4.1 percent (±1.8 percent) above the July 2016 rate of 1,175,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 811,000; this is unchanged from the revised June figure of 811,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 377,000 in July. Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000. This is 4.8 percent (±10.2 percent)* below the revised June estimate of 1,213,000 and is 5.6 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the July 2016 rate of 1,223,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 856,000; this is 0.5 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the revised June figure of 860,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 287,000.
  • 7. Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,175,000. This is 6.2 percent (±14.3 percent)* below the revised June estimate of 1,252,000, but is 8.2 percent (±12.6 percent)* above the July 2016 rate of 1,086,000. Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 814,000; this is 1.6 percent (±11.9 percent)* below the revised June rate of 827,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000. 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 T ho us an ds o f U ni
  • 8. ts New Residential Construction (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) Permits Starts Completions Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017 Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030 [email protected] [email protected] The August report is scheduled for release on September 19, 2017. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: <www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The full text and tables for this release can be found at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/>. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take three months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months for total starts, and five months for total
  • 9. completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised 2 percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website. <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_collected / > America’s Economy Mobile App The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19 key economic indicators released from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. <www.census.gov/mobile/economy/> API The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing
  • 10. statistics more accessible than ever before. <www.census.gov/developers/> ‐X‐ * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit‐Issuing Places (Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou nding.) Table 1a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,175 718 30 427 106 51 188 106 605 395 276 166 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,200 743 36 421 117 53 192 112 606 407 285 171
  • 11. September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,270 749 39 482 142 53 181 113 618 408 329 175 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,285 779 32 474 116 59 202 113 616 420 351 187 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,255 786 41 428 119 55 187 120 608 419 341 192 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,266 830 39 397 131 54 187 119 604 452 344 205 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,300 806 29 465 153 59 198 124 653 451 296 172 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,219 834 45 340 117 54 247 136 585 448 270 196 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,260 826 37 397 136 53 192 128 623 456 309 189 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,228 794 36 398 120 53 192 124 579 424 337 193 May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,168 779 32 357 122 52 173 108 579 436 294 183 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,275 811 35 429 104 57 207 120 622 445 342 189 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223 811 35 377 124 56 171 116 613 452 315 187
  • 12. . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 6 2 3 5 3 4 2 2 2 3 Percent Change 2 Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐4.1% 0.0% 0.0% ‐12.1% 19.2% ‐1.8% ‐17.4% ‐3.3% ‐1.4% 1.6% ‐7.9% ‐1.1% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 0.9 ± 1.1 ± 7.3 ± 2.3 ± 6.9 ± 11.0 ± 2.5 ± 2.2 ± 1.3 ± 1.5 ± 2.1 ± 2.0 Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1% 13.0% 16.7% ‐11.7% 17.0% 9.8% ‐9.0% 9.4% 1.3% 14.4% 14.1% 12.7% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 1.8 ± 2.1 ± 10.9 ± 3.8 ± 5.0 ± 7.4 ± 4.0 ± 2.9 ± 3.2 ± 3.2 ± 2.1 ± 3.2 Table 1b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,182.6 696.0 32.1 454.5 162.0 52.4 170.6 104.7
  • 13. 572.8 378.2 277.2 160.7 2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,206.6 750.8 34.8 421.1 116.4 54.3 186.1 112.4 594.5 406.0 309.6 178.1 . RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X X X X X X X X X X X 2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 688.1 439.1 19.0 230.0 63.4 30.7 104.0 65.8 347.5 238.9 173.2 103.7 2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732.5 487.2 20.2 225.0 70.1 32.0 108.9 70.7 366.4 270.0 187.1 114.5 . RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 4 1 2 4 3 3 1 2 1 2 Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 6.5% 11.0% 6.3% ‐2.2% 10.6% 4.2% 4.7% 7.5% 5.4% 13.0% 8.0% 10.4% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 0.6 ± 0.8 ± 6.5 ± 1.0 ± 2.7 ± 3.8 ± 2.5 ± 2.3 ± 1.1 ± 0.7 ± 0.8 ± 1.8 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97.9 61.2 2.6 34.1 9.1 4.5 16.6 9.4 49.6 32.8 22.7 14.5 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.6 71.3 3.6 36.8 11.0 5.0 19.4 11.9 55.1 38.3 26.2 16.2 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.7 63.4 3.6 44.6 13.4 5.0 18.4
  • 14. 10.7 51.9 33.6 28.0 14.2 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104.0 61.6 2.7 39.7 9.5 5.1 18.9 10.1 48.7 32.3 26.9 14.2 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.5 55.9 3.2 35.3 9.6 4.4 14.6 8.8 44.2 29.3 26.1 13.5 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.8 55.5 3.0 36.4 10.5 3.7 11.3 6.5 45.8 31.2 27.2 14.1 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.3 53.6 1.9 31.8 9.6 3.5 10.0 5.7 48.6 33.3 19.2 11.2 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.8 57.8 3.0 24.0 6.4 3.0 12.7 7.1 45.8 34.0 19.9 13.6 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.5 77.1 3.1 32.3 10.8 4.6 15.9 11.2 57.2 43.9 28.7 17.5 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.6 69.2 2.6 30.8 9.7 4.6 16.8 11.2 48.2 36.8 28.0 16.7 May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.0 78.3 3.0 31.6 11.7 5.2 18.0 12.0 54.7 42.2 28.6 18.9 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.9 81.8 3.6 42.5 11.0 5.9 21.3 12.8 59.9 42.9 35.6 20.2 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.4 69.1 2.8 28.5 10.8 5.0 14.8 10.5 49.5 37.5 25.3 16.2 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 6 2 3 5 3
  • 15. 4 2 2 2 3 p Preliminary r Revised S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards X Not applicable 1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period 2 Computed using unrounded data 3 If the 90 percent confidence interval includes zero, there is ins ufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero Note: Year‐to‐date permits estimates reflect revisions not distr ubuted to months. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16 , 2017. Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle cted/>. Period West United States Northeast Midwest South West Period United States Northeast Midwest South
  • 16. New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized, but Not Started, at End of Period (Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou nding.) Table 2a ‐ Seasonally adjusted Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 65 S 64 18 5 16 8 62 35 35 17 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 71 S 59 16 6 17 9 63 39 35 17 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 70 S 68 17 6 18 10 68 38 36 16 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 67 S 65 14 6 18 9 66 37 35 15 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 66 S 71 14 6 20 8 65 35 40 17 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
  • 17. 70 S 66 14 5 20 8 68 39 37 18 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 72 S 68 15 6 19 8 69 40 40 18 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 74 S 60 12 5 21 9 66 41 36 19 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 77 S 59 13 5 19 9 69 44 37 19 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 77 S 64 15 6 22 10 67 42 38 19 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 80 S 65 18 6 21 9 71 46 36 19 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 77 S 65 13 6 21 9 73 43 37 19 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 77 S 65 12 6 19 8 76 44 37 19 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 X 10 20 15 16 16 7 7 11 14 Percent Change 2 Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0% 0.0% S 0.0%
  • 18. ‐7.7% 0.0% ‐9.5% ‐11.1% 4.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 3.6 ± 4.5 X ± 6.1 ± 14.9 ± 13.8 ± 10.0 ± 16.6 ± 5.7 ± 6.1 ± 5.7 ± 5.9 Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9% 18.5% S 1.6% ‐33.3% 20.0% 18.8% 0.0% 22.6% 25.7% 5.7% 11.8% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 11.8 ± 9.7 X ± 22.7 ± 30.0 ± 24.3 ± 31.1 ± 24.9 ± 17.7 ± 13.6 ± 15.0 ± 15.6 Table 2b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130.9 64.9 1.7 64.3 18.4 5.2 15.2 7.7 63.2 35.1 34.1 16.8 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.9 71.6 1.5 59.8 16.7 5.4 17.5 9.3 64.5 39.8 34.3 17.0 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140.2 71.4 1.4 67.3 16.3 5.9 20.2 10.3 68.6 38.8 35.0 16.3 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129.6
  • 19. 64.6 1.4 63.7 13.0 5.4 19.8 8.9 64.5 35.6 32.3 14.6 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130.9 61.3 2.2 67.4 12.9 5.4 19.5 6.8 62.2 33.3 36.3 15.8 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135.9 66.6 2.7 66.6 13.9 5.3 17.7 7.0 67.3 37.0 37.1 17.4 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137.3 67.9 2.6 66.8 14.4 5.6 17.0 6.7 67.6 38.1 38.3 17.5 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131.5 69.9 1.4 60.1 12.3 5.2 19.4 7.6 64.7 39.3 35.1 17.8 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144.6 82.8 1.9 59.9 13.3 5.2 21.6 10.8 70.7 46.5 39.0 20.3 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143.7 78.3 1.5 64.0 15.1 5.6 21.7 10.4 67.7 43.2 39.3 19.0 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151.3 83.6 1.2 66.4 18.1 6.6 21.4 9.5 72.1 47.1 39.6 20.5 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.9 83.9 2.0 69.0 14.9 6.8 21.4 10.1 76.7 45.5 42.0 21.4 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143.7 75.7 2.3 65.8 12.7 5.5 18.3 7.9 76.8 43.4 35.8 18.9 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 34 10 20 15 16 16 7 7 11 14
  • 20. p Preliminary r Revised S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards X Not applicable 1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period 2 Computed using unrounded data 3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an ex plantion of 90 percent confidence intervals as of that date without regard to the months of original permit issuance. Cancelled, abandoned, expired, and revoked p ermits are excluded. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16 , 2017. Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle cted/>. Note: These data represent the number of housing units authori zed in all months up to and including the last day of the reportin g period and not started West Period United States Northeast Midwest South West
  • 21. Period United States Northeast Midwest South New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou nding.) Table 3a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223 772 S 443 134 59 157 108 637 427 295 178 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,164 727 S 420 133 52 170 113 562 377 299 185 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,062 783 S 265 95 62 150 114 539 427 278 180 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,328 871 S 447 162 68 198 125 624 463 344 215 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,149
  • 22. 823 S 323 83 59 216 142 581 442 269 180 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,268 808 S 449 89 58 222 128 566 418 391 204 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,236 815 S 418 125 59 202 137 678 453 231 166 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,288 877 S 392 111 67 182 163 658 448 337 199 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,189 824 S 355 116 65 139 105 633 466 301 188 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,154 823 S 314 85 47 200 124 562 449 307 203 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,129 795 S 320 85 55 165 140 564 410 315 190 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,213 860 S 346 153 61 211 136 529 453 320 210 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,155 856 S 287 129 67 179 126 532 462 315 201 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 X 14 16 12 13 10 6 6 8 7 Percent Change
  • 23. 2 Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐4.8% ‐0.5% S ‐17.1% ‐15.7% 9.8% ‐15.2% ‐7.4% 0.6% 2.0% ‐1.6% ‐4.3% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 10.2 ± 8.5 X ± 29.8 ± 36.8 ± 32.8 ± 24.3 ± 24.7 ± 12.4 ± 12.5 ± 22.3 ± 11.8 Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐5.6% 10.9% S ‐35.2% ‐3.7% 13.6% 14.0% 16.7% ‐16.5% 8.2% 6.8% 12.9% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 8.5 ± 9.0 X ± 18.0 ± 29.8 ± 30.4 ± 25.4 ± 26.5 ± 10.8 ± 12.6 ± 21.4 ± 22.7 Table 3b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,111.8 714.5 11.5 385.8 138.1 54.8 152.6 107.3 555.5 387.1 265.6 165.2 2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,173.8 781.5 11.5 380.8 116.1 60.1 182.3 120.9 584.6 421.1 290.9 179.4 . RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
  • 24. 1 16 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687.2 460.8 6.7 219.7 67.7 34.4 101.9 68.5 353.5 253.5 164.0 104.4 2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 703.8 500.4 6.7 196.8 65.8 34.1 104.4 75.5 351.1 271.6 182.5 119.2 . RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1 17 7 7 4 4 2 3 2 4 2 Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 2.4% 8.6% ‐1.2% ‐10.4% ‐2.8% ‐0.9% 2.4% 10.2% ‐0.7% 7.1% 11.3% 14.2% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 3.6 ± 2.8 ± 36.1 ± 10.1 ± 13.6 ± 9.3 ± 8.7 ± 7.1 ± 5.8 ± 3.9 ± 6.7 ± 6.0 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115.2 72.6 0.7 41.8 12.7 5.6 15.7 11.1 58.3 38.5 28.4 17.4 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.8 66.5 1.5 34.8 11.6 4.9 15.5 10.8 49.6 34.3 26.1 16.6 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95.0 67.4 1.4 26.2 8.7 5.5 14.8 11.2 46.9 35.8 24.5 14.9 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114.5 73.4 0.9 40.2 14.9 6.4 18.7 12.2 52.1 37.7 28.8 17.2 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.8
  • 25. 60.6 0.2 27.0 6.8 4.8 17.4 11.3 43.4 31.7 20.3 12.8 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.5 52.9 0.8 32.8 6.4 4.1 13.9 7.0 39.0 28.2 27.2 13.5 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82.3 53.1 0.2 29.0 8.0 3.4 10.7 6.2 48.0 32.4 15.6 11.1 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.8 58.8 1.3 27.7 6.6 3.5 8.9 7.6 48.4 33.6 23.8 14.1 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97.1 69.5 0.7 27.0 8.8 4.9 9.9 7.3 53.8 41.1 24.7 16.1 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105.2 76.9 1.4 26.8 7.7 4.4 18.8 12.3 50.3 40.7 28.4 19.5 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106.0 76.9 1.2 28.0 7.9 5.2 16.8 14.6 52.5 39.1 28.9 18.0 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116.3 84.1 0.6 31.6 14.5 6.1 21.3 14.5 49.7 42.8 30.8 20.7 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109.0 81.1 1.2 26.7 12.3 6.5 17.9 12.9 48.4 41.9 30.4 19.7 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 36 14 16 12 13 10 6 6 8 7 p Preliminary r Revised S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
  • 26. able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards X Not applicable 1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period 2 Computed using unrounded data 3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an exp lantion of 90 percent confidence intervals Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16 , 2017. Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle cted/>. West Period United States Northeast Midwest South West Period United States Northeast Midwest South New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Under Construction at End of Period (Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou nding.) Table 4a ‐ Seasonally adjusted
  • 27. Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,028 431 S 586 192 51 135 70 446 212 255 98 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,034 427 S 596 192 49 136 70 446 208 260 100 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,033 432 S 590 190 49 139 72 442 210 262 101 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,053 442 S 599 196 51 142 73 447 213 268 105 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,046 447 S 588 192 52 144 74 442 214 268 107 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,062 449 S 602 191 53 144 73 448 214 279 109 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,071 447 S 613 193 52 147 73 449 212 282 110 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,080 455 S 614 194 54 151 76
  • 28. 452 215 283 110 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,074 454 S 610 189 52 149 73 452 218 284 111 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,074 457 S 607 190 51 151 74 445 219 288 113 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,068 459 S 599 184 51 154 76 442 219 288 113 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065 460 S 596 184 50 152 76 442 221 287 113 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,063 462 S 592 186 49 152 77 435 221 290 115 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 X 6 8 5 4 5 3 4 5 4 Percent Change 2 Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐0.2% 0.4% S ‐0.7% 1.1% ‐2.0% 0.0% 1.3% ‐1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 1.8% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 1.0 ± 1.6 X ± 1.3 ± 1.9 ± 4.9 ± 2.8 ± 3.3 ± 1.6 ± 2.7 ± 1.5 ± 1.8 Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4% 7.2% S 1.0% ‐3.1% ‐3.9% 12.6% 10.0% ‐2.5% 4.2% 13.7% 17.3%
  • 29. . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 3.4 ± 3.1 X ± 5.8 ± 10.8 ± 7.5 ± 6.1 ± 5.7 ± 5.3 ± 4.4 ± 5.6 ± 6.9 Table 4b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,050.8 449.7 10.8 590.3 193.8 52.0 139.0 73.2 456.2 220.7 261.8 103.8 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,049.4 447.6 11.3 590.5 192.1 50.5 140.3 74.6 452.6 216.7 264.4 105.9 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,051.6 450.7 11.4 589.5 191.2 50.3 143.5 76.2 450.9 218.9 266.0 105.3 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,061.4 453.3 11.6 596.5 196.2 52.0 145.1 76.5 450.2 217.4 269.9 107.3 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,049.9 448.5 10.6 590.8 192.6 52.3 146.3 76.1 443.1 214.2 267.9 105.9 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,039.0 427.7 10.6 600.7 189.5 51.9 142.1 71.2 435.5 202.3 271.9 102.3 2017
  • 30. January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,045.8 424.4 10.5 610.9 191.0 50.7 142.5 68.6 437.4 201.1 275.0 104.0 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,051.1 430.4 11.2 609.5 190.9 51.6 143.7 69.5 441.0 205.9 275.6 103.5 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052.6 435.0 10.4 607.2 187.4 50.7 143.2 67.8 443.1 210.3 278.9 106.1 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,071.4 450.9 9.9 610.6 189.9 50.4 147.8 70.1 445.1 217.8 288.7 112.5 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,077.5 461.4 10.0 606.1 185.4 50.7 153.9 75.2 447.2 221.7 291.1 113.8 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,083.3 473.1 9.3 601.0 186.3 51.0 155.4 78.8 449.5 226.8 292.2 116.4 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,089.2 485.0 9.4 594.8 188.4 50.9 156.9 81.6 446.1 230.5 297.9 122.0 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 14 6 8 5 4 5 3 4 5 4 p Preliminary r Revised S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards X Not applicable 1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period 2 Computed using unrounded data
  • 31. 3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an ex plantion of 90 percent confidence intervals Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16 , 2017. Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle cted/>. West Period United States Northeast Midwest South West Period United States Northeast Midwest South New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Completed (Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou nding.) Table 5a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units
  • 32. 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,086 748 S 331 96 49 174 123 535 414 281 162 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,040 744 S 288 130 63 150 100 541 420 219 161 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,005 718 S 273 97 56 118 103 537 384 253 175 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,067 755 S 305 82 49 189 120 538 424 258 162 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,203 766 S 426 110 48 180 126 693 432 220 160 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,096 765 S 323 102 50 184 120 574 414 236 181 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,083 802 S 277 84 67 174 134 611 459 214 142 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,161 763 S 382 119 40 123 108 575 402 344 213 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,194 810 S 368 111 60 188 134 629 449 266 167 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,098 774 S 301 88 60 183 127
  • 33. 591 420 236 167 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,180 799 S 369 138 54 146 120 600 426 296 199 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,252 827 S 416 144 63 215 129 550 424 343 211 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,175 814 S 354 109 78 176 112 634 461 256 163 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 5 X 14 20 21 15 10 7 8 10 7 Percent Change 2 Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐6.2% ‐1.6% S ‐14.9% ‐24.3% 23.8% ‐18.1% ‐13.2% 15.3% 8.7% ‐25.4% ‐22.7% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 14.3 ± 11.9 X ± 28.2 ± 42.1 ± 61.3 ± 30.1 ± 14.3 ± 20.2 ± 18.7 ± 19.2 ± 11.0 Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2% 8.8% S 6.9% 13.5% 59.2% 1.1% ‐8.9% 18.5% 11.4% ‐8.9% 0.6% . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 12.6 ± 11.3 X ± 25.8 ± 55.5 ± 82.0 ± 23.8 ± 18.5 ± 18.8 ± 17.8 ± 22.4 ± 18.7 Table 5b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
  • 34. Total 1 unit 2 to 4 units 5 units or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit 2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 968.2 647.9 10.0 310.3 92.6 46.6 154.4 102.7 489.8 351.9 231.5 146.7 2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,059.7 738.4 10.4 311.0 99.5 55.2 164.0 116.8 551.3 402.9 245.0 163.5 . RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 18 5 6 6 3 2 2 2 3 3 2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571.2 396.4 6.1 168.6 51.1 29.8 87.0 62.0 296.0 218.1 137.1 86.5 2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 638.7 435.5 6.7 196.5 61.7 32.1 92.2 64.2 331.4 241.0 153.4 98.2 . RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 16 6 6 7 4 2 3 3 3 2 Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 11.8% 9.9% 9.8% 16.5% 20.8% 7.7% 5.9% 3.5% 12.0% 10.5% 11.9% 13.5%
  • 35. . 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 4.9 ± 4.5 ± 33.1 ± 13.6 ± 14.6 ± 11.8 ± 9.3 ± 4.9 ± 7.4 ± 6.3 ± 8.4 ± 9.2 2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93.4 61.2 0.7 31.5 8.6 4.1 15.5 10.6 44.8 33.2 24.5 13.2 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.0 66.0 0.9 31.1 12.9 5.7 14.3 8.9 50.3 37.2 20.5 14.3 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.2 63.7 1.3 25.3 9.3 5.5 11.3 9.9 46.9 32.7 22.8 15.5 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96.7 70.0 0.6 26.1 7.2 4.4 17.8 11.9 48.5 38.7 23.2 15.0 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 67.3 0.8 31.9 9.4 4.7 16.0 11.9 55.6 36.1 19.0 14.6 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.6 75.0 0.6 28.0 9.5 5.0 17.7 12.2 54.0 40.1 22.4 17.7 2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.6 55.0 0.3 19.4 5.6 4.4 11.3 8.5 43.5 32.9 14.3 9.2 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.9 52.7 1.1 25.1 7.5 2.3 7.6 6.6 40.6 29.2 23.1 14.5 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.0 62.4 1.3 28.3 8.0 4.0 13.3 9.2 50.0 36.1 20.7 13.0 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4
  • 36. 60.1 1.6 21.7 6.3 4.3 13.9 9.9 45.3 33.0 17.8 12.8 May (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.1 66.9 1.0 30.3 11.6 4.8 11.9 9.8 49.6 35.3 25.0 17.0 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.2 71.7 0.9 38.6 13.4 5.9 18.7 10.7 48.5 36.7 30.6 18.3 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.5 66.8 0.7 33.0 9.2 6.4 15.5 9.5 53.9 37.7 21.9 13.2 . Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 5 40 14 20 21 15 10 7 8 10 7 p Preliminary r Revised S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards X Not applicable 1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period 2 Computed using unrounded data 3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an exp lantion of 90 percent confidence intervals Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16 , 2017. Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle cted/>.
  • 37. West Period United States Northeast Midwest South West Period United States Northeast Midwest South newresconst_auto_textnewresconst_auto_tables