SOURCE: http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-remains-largest-revenue-source/
Property tax comes from housing. More new construction means more property taxes collected. The
better (so more expensive the home) the more property taxes collected. Defaults, foreclosures can
drive down house values and reduce property taxes. You are simply trying to understand some
forecasting regarding the future (maybe near-term future) of property taxes to be collected. CERNIK
Property Tax Remains Largest Revenue Source
According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, taxes paid by homeowners and other real
estate owners remain the largest single source of revenue for state and local governments. At
34%, property taxes represent a significantly larger share than the next largest sources: individual
income taxes (24%) and sales taxes (21%).
State and local government property tax collections continue to increase on a nominal basis.
From the third quarter of 2012 through the end of the second quarter of 2013, approximately
$479 billion in taxes were paid by property owners. This was a small increase from the
previous trailing four-quarter record of $477 billion, set last quarter.
The modest changes throughout the Great Recession in nominal state and local government
property tax collections are due in large part to lagging property assessments and the ability of
local jurisdiction to make annual adjustments to tax rates. In general, declining property values
are not reflected in the system until a few years after the decline occurs. Once assessments are
updated, property tax authorities can adjust rates thus maintaining a desired level of collection.
http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-remains-largest-revenue-source/
http://www.census.gov/govs/qtax/
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/piechart.png
As state and local government property tax collections increased in recent years, the share of
local tax collections due to property taxes fell from a high of 37.4% in the second quarter of
2010 to the current share of 33.5%. The average share for property taxes since 2000 is 32.4%.
The changing share of local collections is due predominantly to fluctuations in all other tax
receipts. State and local individual income tax, corporate income tax, and sales tax collections
are very responsive to changing economic conditions. For example, in the second quarter of 2009
state and local governments collected $76 billion in individual income tax. In the second quarter
of 2013, the most recent, state and local governments collected $114 billion in individual income
tax. The dramatic 50% increase in state and local individual income tax receipts is due to
improving economic conditions, rising incomes, and higher rates in several states.
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_13.png
The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index – National Index grew by 7.1% on a n.
1. SOURCE: http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-
remains-largest-revenue-source/
Property tax comes from housing. More new construction means
more property taxes collected. The
better (so more expensive the home) the more property taxes
collected. Defaults, foreclosures can
drive down house values and reduce property taxes. You are
simply trying to understand some
forecasting regarding the future (maybe near-term future) of
property taxes to be collected. CERNIK
Property Tax Remains Largest Revenue Source
According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, taxes paid
by homeowners and other real
estate owners remain the largest single source of revenue for
state and local governments. At
34%, property taxes represent a significantly larger share than
the next largest sources: individual
income taxes (24%) and sales taxes (21%).
State and local government property tax collections continue to
increase on a nominal basis.
2. From the third quarter of 2012 through the end of the second
quarter of 2013, approximately
$479 billion in taxes were paid by property owners. This was a
small increase from the
previous trailing four-quarter record of $477 billion, set last
quarter.
The modest changes throughout the Great Recession in nominal
state and local government
property tax collections are due in large part to lagging property
assessments and the ability of
local jurisdiction to make annual adjustments to tax rates. In
general, declining property values
are not reflected in the system until a few years after the decline
occurs. Once assessments are
updated, property tax authorities can adjust rates thus
maintaining a desired level of collection.
http://eyeonhousing.org/2013/09/24/property-tax-remains-
largest-revenue-source/
http://www.census.gov/govs/qtax/
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/piechart.png
As state and local government property tax collections
increased in recent years, the share of
local tax collections due to property taxes fell from a high of
3. 37.4% in the second quarter of
2010 to the current share of 33.5%. The average share for
property taxes since 2000 is 32.4%.
The changing share of local collections is due predominantly to
fluctuations in all other tax
receipts. State and local individual income tax, corporate
income tax, and sales tax collections
are very responsive to changing economic conditions. For
example, in the second quarter of 2009
state and local governments collected $76 billion in individual
income tax. In the second quarter
of 2013, the most recent, state and local governments collected
$114 billion in individual income
tax. The dramatic 50% increase in state and local individual
income tax receipts is due to
improving economic conditions, rising incomes, and higher
rates in several states.
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_13.png
The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index – National Index grew
by 7.1% on a not seasonally
adjusted basis in the second quarter and 10.1% over the
previous four quarters. Although house
4. prices remain on a path toward recovery, one should not expect
property tax collections to
increase significantly. Just as declining property values did not
lead to a significant decrease in
property tax collections, it is unlikely that rising property
values will lead to dramatic increases
in property tax collection. Instead, lagging assessments and the
ability of local jurisdiction to
make annual adjustments should lead to only modest increases.
* Data footnote: Census data for property tax collections
include taxes paid for all real estate
assets (as well as personal property), including owner-occupied
homes, rental housing,
commercial real estate, and agriculture. However, housing’s
share is by far the largest when
considering the stock of both owner-occupied and rental
housing units.
http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/house-prices-
remain-on-a-path-toward-recovery/
http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/house-prices-
remain-on-a-path-toward-recovery/
http://eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chart_22.png
New Residential Construction:
5. You can find it here:
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html
Some of it got cut off.
New Residential Construction
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch
Public Information Office
301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030
[email protected][email protected]
FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, AUGUST
16, 2017
MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, JULY
2017
Release Number: CB17-133
August 16, 2017 - The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
jointly announced the following new residential construction
statistics for July 2017:
NEW RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION
6. JULY 2017
Building Permits: 1,223,000
Housing Starts: 1,155,000
Housing Completions: 1,175,000
Next Release: September 19, 2017
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017
Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in
July were at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 1,223,000. This is 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) below the
revised June rate of 1,275,000, but is 4.1
percent (±1.8 percent) above the July 2016 rate of 1,175,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a
rate of 811,000; this is unchanged from the revised June figure
of 811,000. Authorizations of units in
buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 377,000 in
July.
Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000. This is 4.8
percent (±10.2 percent)* below the revised June estimate of
1,213,000 and is 5.6 percent (±8.5 percent)*
below the July 2016 rate of 1,223,000. Single-family housing
starts in July were at a rate of 856,000; this is
0.5 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the revised June figure of
860,000. The July rate for units in buildings
with five units or more was 287,000.
7. Housing Completions
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,175,000. This is
6.2 percent (±14.3 percent)* below the revised June estimate of
1,252,000, but is 8.2 percent (±12.6
percent)* above the July 2016 rate of 1,086,000. Single-family
housing completions in July were at a rate
of 814,000; this is 1.6 percent (±11.9 percent)* below the
revised June rate of 827,000. The July rate for
units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000.
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17
T
ho
us
an
ds
o
f U
ni
8. ts
New Residential Construction
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Permits
Starts
Completions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch
Public Information Office
301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030
[email protected]
[email protected]
The August report is scheduled for release on September 19,
2017. View the full schedule in the Economic
Briefing Room: <www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The
full text and tables for this release can be
found at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/>.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that
month-to-month changes in seasonally
adjusted statistics often show movements which may be
irregular. It may take three months to establish an
underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months
for total starts, and five months for total
9. completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from
sample surveys and are subject to sampling
variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and
variance from response, nonreporting, and
undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most
recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever
a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears
in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to
+5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to
have occurred. All ranges given for
percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and
account only for sampling variability. If a range
does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If
it does contain zero, the change is not
statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was
an increase or decrease. The same policies
apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown
in the tables. On average, the preliminary
seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing
starts and housing completions are revised 2
percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and
sampling variability can be found on our website.
<www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_collected
/ >
America’s Economy Mobile App
The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19
key economic indicators released from the
Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
<www.census.gov/mobile/economy/>
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets
developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing
10. statistics more accessible than ever before.
<www.census.gov/developers/>
‐X‐
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such
cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that
the actual change is different
from zero.
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized in
Permit‐Issuing Places
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 1a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,175
718 30 427 106 51 188
106 605 395 276 166
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,200
743 36 421 117 53 192
112 606 407 285 171
15. 4 2 2 2 3
p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2 Computed using unrounded data
3
If the 90 percent confidence interval includes zero, there is ins
ufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different
from zero
Note: Year‐to‐date permits estimates reflect revisions not distr
ubuted to months.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
Period
West
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
16. New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized,
but Not Started, at End of Period
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 2a ‐ Seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
65 S 64 18 5 16 8
62 35 35 17
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
71 S 59 16 6 17 9
63 39 35 17
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
70 S 68 17 6 18 10
68 38 36 16
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
67 S 65 14 6 18 9
66 37 35 15
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
66 S 71 14 6 20 8
65 35 40 17
December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
20. p Preliminary
r Revised
S Does not meet publication standards because tests for identifi
able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2
Computed using unrounded data
3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an ex
plantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
as of that date without regard to the months of original
permit issuance. Cancelled, abandoned, expired, and revoked p
ermits are excluded.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
Note: These data represent the number of housing units authori
zed in all months up to and including the last day of the reportin
g period and not started
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
21. Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Started
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 3a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016
July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223
772 S 443 134 59 157 108
637 427 295 178
August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,164
727 S 420 133 52 170 113
562 377 299 185
September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,062
783 S 265 95 62 150 114
539 427 278 180
October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,328
871 S 447 162 68 198 125
624 463 344 215
November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,149
26. able and stable seasonalilty do not meet reliability standards
X Not applicable
1 Average relative standard error for the latest 6‐month period
2 Computed using unrounded data
3
See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an exp
lantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Under
Construction at End of Period
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 4a ‐ Seasonally adjusted
31. 3 See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an ex
plantion of 90 percent confidence intervals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing an
d Urban Development, New Residential Construction, August 16
, 2017.
Additional information on the survey methodology may be foun
d at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_colle
cted/>.
West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Period
United States Northeast Midwest South
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Completed
(Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rou
nding.)
Table 5a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units