Beyond the Edge: Australia's First National Peri-Urban Conference La Trobe University Oct 2013

1. Integrating regional settlement with
rural land protection: scenarios for
peri-urban planning
Michael Buxton
RMIT University

2. Nature of peri-urban change
• Peri-urban areas are among the fastest growing
regions in many countries
• In US, peri-urban land comprises up to one third of
total land area; 30% of new housing in peri-urban
areas, moving to one third of total US population
• U.K. Europe, loss of agricultural land to housing 2.5
per cent in the decade from 1970
• China and India transforming small-medium towns and
cities into mega settlements
• Chinese and western capital imposing high rise and
suburban development model into African countries

3. Why protect peri-urban areas?
• Traditional reasons: to preserve landscapes; protect
water quality and supply; protect primary production
and other natural resources deposits of minerals and
other resources and other rural activities.
• Emerging issues: food security, health, climate
change and impact of peak oil
• Precaution: in times of rapid fundamental change,
maintain options, act cautiously, anticipate needs
• Cities and hinterlands: renewed focus for resilience
– but will we recognise this need in time?

4. Loss of
peri-urban
values
will lead to
catastrophic
impacts
this
century

6. Varying UGB has led to land speculation

7. Context
• Australia’s urban
primacy
Source: State of Australian Cities
(2012)
• 2/3rd of popul. in 5
largest cities
• Growth of 1.5-1.8%
• Population increase
from 23m in 2013
to 42-46m in 2056
• Only 15% live in in
medium sized cities
with population
from 100,000 to 1m

8. Context
SEQ 2009-31 regional plan
• Lack of Regional
planning in Australia
• Some examples:
• DURD 1972-75
• SEQ Regional Plan
• Melbourne regional
planning 1970s

9. Melbourne peri-urban region
• Melbourne,
population 4.2m;
Australia 2013
population of
23m moving to
42-46m, 2056
• Melbourne’s
peri-urban region
– inner and outer
areas:
population
700,000

10. Regional planning - regulation
• In 1970s, State government used planning
system: limit urban growth, protect farming in
Mornington Peninsula and Upper Yarra Valley
• 1971 SPP3 and SPP4
• Legislation to protect natural values
- ie 1976 Upper Yarra Valley and Dandenong
Ranges Act
• Regional authorities and strategy plans to
implement SPPs and legislation

11. Potential for new industries
• Viticulture: Yarra Valley area under vineyards
- 1973/74: 43 ha and 17 vineyards
- By 1998: 114 vineyards and 50 wineries,
with 2,500 ha cultivated with an annual
turnover of $100 million
• Tourism and recreation
- By 1998, 600,000 visitors annually
• Other industries developed – ie education

12. Case study region

13. Purpose: Scenario Modelling
What will happen?
The continuation of current trends, conditions and
policies to 2040 - business as usual - in rural areas
and townships
What can happen?
Alternative scenarios that describe possible future
states – then backcasting to achieve these through
alternative policy and regulatory levers

14. Method
Alternative scenarios: two spatial scales
• redirect growth from rural-residential and residential
development from rural areas to townships
- (Rural Preservation Scenario) require minimum
subdivision lot size to qualify for dwelling approval
- tenement control of 25 ha
- tenement control of 40 ha
• Consolidate township growth within regional
townships on a number of scenarios; accommodate
transferred and increased demand
• shift development to smaller townships

15. Method
Relate land supply and demand
• Compile existing rural and township land
supply
• Compare this to development pressure
spatially
• Assume that land supply influences demand
and can be transferred spatially
• Develop alternative rural policies to protect
natural resources – landscape ecology
approach

16. Extensive rural land fragmentation – 87,000
dwelling capacity (vacant lots + subdivision)

18. Development capacity “BAU–rural preservation scenario” by zone
87,000 additional dwellings (BAU); 112,000 additional dwellings (RP)
Achieved through transfer and promotion of high densities in TZ, UGZ, CDZ
in RP compared with BAU.

19. Use of tenement control

20. Development capacity – BAU –
tenement control

24. Findings - rural
Legend
Developed Parcels (2010 - 2040)
Urban Centre or Locality
No Development Capacity
Crown Land & Non Rural
Residential Landscape
Undeveloped Capacity

25. Findings - BAU development
• BAU scenario: by 2040, costly, fragmented
landscapes
• Pressure greatest on regional centres and
infrastructure corridors closest to the
metropolitan fringe, and coast
• Doing nothing not an option because of past
land fragmentation
• Need spatial and institutional integration;
cross-sectoral policy measures

26. Findings - townships
• 3 urban
development
scenarios
• BAU (greenfield)
• Infill
• Fringe density
• For Bendigo,
regional centre of
86,000, 160km
North West of
Melbourne

27. General approach: Housing Futures
1. Greenfield / broadhectare areas:
• Business as usual
• Higher density
2. Infill in established areas:
• Dual occupancy
• Activity centres
• Incremental infill
• Redevelopment on non-residential land
3. Increased development in town core

28. Key findings: Bendigo greenfield/broadhectare
BUSINESS AS USUAL
Land supply: 770
hectares
Overall yield at trend
densities: 9,240
dwellings
- Residential zones
- No overlays
- Parcels over 1
hectare
- Trend density: 12
dwellings per
hectare
HIGHER DENSITY
SCENARIO: 25 dwellings
per hectare: 19,250
Increased dwelling
supply compared to
BAU: 10,010
Parent lots over 1 hectare

29. Key findings: Bendigo greenfield business as usual
Development
Station
Edmarna Meadows, Villawood
Lot sizes: 1,500 – 2,332sqm
R1 Zone

30. Further project stage: development types
Lot:
10 x 30m (300sqm)
Height:
1 (or 2 storey)
Bedrooms: 3
Parking:
1 space in garage
Open space: 40-90sqm, back yard
Floor area: 1 storey – 160sqm
2 storey – 215sqm
Lot:
12.5 x 20m (250sqm)
Height:
1 (or 2 storey)
Bedrooms: 2 or 3
Parking:
1 or 2, in garage
Open space: 35-50sqm, back yard
Floor area: 1 storey – 100sqm
2 storey – 170sqm
Net density: 21 dwellings per hectare
Net density: 24 dwellings per hectare

31. Key findings: Bendigo dual occupancy
Land supply: 555
hectares
Overall yield with two
dwellings per parcel:
6,976
(two dwellings on vacant
lots, one additional on
occupied lots)
Average density: almost
13 dwellings per hectare
Parent lot 700 to 1,000sqm

32. Key findings: Bendigo activity centres
Land supply: 322
hectares
Overall yield at 35
dwellings per
hectare: 11,270
R1Z and MUZ parcels over 150sqm within 400m
of business zones

33. Further project stages: development types
Street
Neigbouring
one storey
building
Neigbouring
one storey
building
Lane
Site boundary
Residential use
Communal open space
Private open space (courtyard)
Car parking
Building context
Carpark access
Indicative carpark location
Lot:
4.5 x 30m (135sqm)
Height:
2/3 storey
Bedrooms: 2
Parking:
1 space in garage
Open space: 35sqm, back yard
Floor area: 110sqm
Lot:
20.1 x 25.9m (522.36sqm)
No. of units: 4
Height:
2 storey, 7m
Bedrooms: 2
Parking:
2 spaces in rear garage
Open space: Private courtyards, balconies
Floor area: 155sqm / dwelling
Net density: 39 dwellings per hectare
Density:
75 dwellings per hectare

34. Further project stages: development types
Lot:
27 x 14.5m (390sqm)
No. of units: 12
Height:
4 storey, 14m
Bedrooms: 2
Parking:
1 spaces in garage under building
Open space: balconies 8-11sqm
Floor area: 61 – 77sqm / dwelling
Lot:
28 x 5.5m (155sqm)
No. of units: 7
Height:
4 storey, 12.5m
Bedrooms: 1
Parking:
Only for two wheels
Open space: balconies 8sqm
Floor area: 55sqm / dwelling
Density:
Density:
387 dwellings per hectare
460 dwellings per hectare

35. Key findings: Bendigo incremental infill
Land supply: 344
hectares
Overall yield at 35
dwellings per hectare:
12,040
R1Z parcels rated green by CoGB

36. Key findings: Bendigo non-residential land
infill
Land supply: 275
hectares
Overall yield at 35
dwellings per hectare:
9,625
Non-residential zones parcels rated green
by CoGB

37. Key findings: Bendigo
Greenfield / broadhectare
SCENARIO
FUTURE
GREENFIELD
DEVELOPMENT
Maximum yield
possible on all
parcels over one
hectare
Supply
770 hectares
Density
25 dwellings per
hectare
Dwelling
supply
19,250
DUAL
OCCUPANCY
INFILL
Two lot
development on
existing occupied
and vacant
residential parcels
between 700 and
1,000sqm
555 hectares from
6,756 parcels (220
vacant)
almost 13
dwellings per
hectare
6,536 + 440 =
6,976
Sample of
lots available
Bendigo’s total dwelling supply = 62,561
Core
Infill
ACTIVITY
CENTRE INFILL
RESIDENTIAL
INFILL
OTHER
CBD
REDEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT
Development
occurs on sites
within 400m radius
of business zoned
parcels
Residential
development occurs
on infill sites outside
CBD and zoned
Business and
Industrial
Development on
sites determined
as appropriate, to
heights defined by
CBD Strategy
322 hectares from
4,154 parcels
Development
occurs on
residential sites
identified as
appropriate for
development by
CoGB
344 hectares from
1,129 parcels
275 hectares from
209 parcels
14.4 hectares
from 138 parcels
35 dwellings per
hectare
35 dwellings per
hectare
35 dwellings per
hectare
11,270
12,040
9,625
Average 140
dwellings per
hectare
2,000+

38. Key findings: Rural centres have capacity to take up
significant proportion of Melbourne’s growth

39. Implications
• Reduction of the
• Land tenure is the key
factor
existing supply of
• Rural development
small rural lots
capacity of existing small
(backcasting)
rural-residential lots will
• Strong controls
be exhausted by 2025 in
over subdivision
areas closest to
and a transfer of
Melbourne and along
demand for future
major transport corridors
rural land holdings
• Spatial planning
techniques could prevent
to regional
further land
settlements
fragmentation

40. Policy responses
• Requires selection of a desired future and use of
measures designed to achieve this alternative future.
• But Australian deregulated planning systems are:
- enabling and increasingly non-regulatory
- based on vertically and horizontally fragmented
institutions and sectoral policy
- based on incremental, ad hoc approvals towards
no defined end
• Victorian deregulated governance led to dismantling
of integrated metropolitan and regional policy