New base issue 1251 special 19 july 2019 energy news

NewBase Energy News 19 July 2019 - Issue No. 1261 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE's Mubadala Petroleum to farmout 20% participating
interest in Indonesia.... By Staff Writer, WAM (Emirates News Agency)
Mubadala Petroleum has announced the signing of an agreement with Premier Oil to farmout a 20
percent participating interest in each of the Andaman I and South Andaman Gross Split
Production Sharing Contracts, PSCs.
Mubadala Petroleum is the operator of both the Andaman I and adjacent South Andaman
PSCs.According to a statement issued by Mubadala Petroleum, completion of the transaction is
subject to customary conditions including government approvals.
The Andaman I and South Andaman PSCs are located in the underexplored but proven North
Sumatra basin offshore Aceh.
Commmenting on the announcement, Dr. Bakheet Al Katheeri, Mubadala Petroleum’s Chief
Executive Officer, said, "With this farmout, Mubadala Petroleum will extend its partnership with
Premier Oil for the exploration of the Andaman blocks offshore Aceh.
Both partners have a strong commitment to this new high impact growth area which supports
Mubadala Petroleum’s growth strategy of finding and, if successful, developing gas for Indonesia’s
growing markets."
Mubadala Petroleum is also a partner with a 30 percent participating interest in the Andaman II
PSC which is operated by Premier Oil. With participating interests in these three adjacent blocks,
Mubadala Petroleum is the largest net acreage holder in the area, securing the core of the North
Sumatra basin for future exploration growth.
The PSCs have the potential to unlock a new material gas play for domestic consumption in North
Sumatra and potentially long-term export to regional markets.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

Saudia: to develop 1st offshore wind farm with Saipm,UAE firm
The National - Jennifer Gnana
Italian energy services firm Saipem and the UAE’s Plambeck Emirates signed a memorandum of
understanding to build Saudi Arabia’s first offshore floating wind farm, as the world’s largest oil
exporter looks to incorporate more renewable into its energy mix.
The 500 megawatt project is part of the kingdom’s plan to incorporate 5 gigawatt of wind power
into its grid. Saipem will work with the UAE firm’s Saudi subsidiary to carry out the project “over
the coming weeks”, the Italian company said.
Saudi Arabia has been looking at adopting cleaner forms of energy, switching its power stations
from running on oil to gas, and solar and wind to free-up its crude for the export markets.In
January the kingdom awarded its first wind project - a 400MW scheme in the northern Al Jouf
region - to a consortium led by France’s EDF and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar.
Saudi Arabia could become the region’s biggest wind power market over the next decade,
accounting for almost half of the region’s wind capacity additions by 2028. Developers will build
6.2GW of wind capacity in Saudi Arabia – or 46 per cent of the region’s total wind capacity
addition – between 2019 and 2028, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables said in January.
Referring to the latest planned offshore wind scheme, Francesco Balestrino, renewables and
green tech product manager at Saipem’s Xsight division, said "innovative solutions” developed by
the team could support the construction of offshore wind farms at an accelerated pace and with
reduced costs.
"Initiating the new market in Saudi Arabia is an important opportunity to be seized and we are
ready with Plambeck for this new challenge,” he added. Saipem will finalise financial agreements
towards the end of the planning phase, after which a contract will be signed to undertake
engineering, design, construction as well as installation of the scheme.

Oman: Rabab Harweel Integrated Project starts production
Source: Petrofac
Petroleum Development Oman’s (PDO) Rabab Harweel Integrated Project (RHIP) has entered the
start-up phase with gas production from six sour wells to date. This key milestone comes two
months ahead of schedule, as the commissioning process progresses the plant’s capacity will be
ramped up over the coming weeks.
Petrofac has provided engineering, procurement, construction management and commissioning
support services worth around US$1.25 billion for RHIP. Located in the Harweel cluster of fields,
deep in the Southern Omani desert, the megaproject includes sour gas processing facilities and
associated gathering and injection systems and export pipelines.
It will handle the production of oil and gas from the Harweel oil reservoirs via miscible gas injection
and the production of gas with condensate from the Rabab reservoir through partial recycling of
sour gas.
When up to capacity, the facility will deliver:
• Export of sweet gas to the Salalah Gas Pipeline (SGL)
• Production of stabilised condensate which is exported to the Main Oil Line (MOL) via
Marmul.
• Re-injection of gas to Rabab for condensate recovery and Harweel Oil reservoirs for
Miscible Gas Injection
Delivering in-country value has been key to our success for the RHIP development and wider
commitment to supporting the sustainable future of Oman. We have exceeded our targets for
Omanisation, with Omani team members employed both at our Muscat office and onsite. Around
50% of the project’s total procurement value was sourced within the Sultanate.
Elie Lahoud, Petrofac’s Group MD, E&C – Oman, Iraq and Saudi Arabia said: “We are proud of
our role in the delivery of this landmark project, the start-up marks an important milestone. In
addition to an excellent safety performance, it’s particularly pleasing that such a complex project
has come in ahead of plan and that we have been able to return significant value to PDO through
our engineering expertise and by leveraging our extensive procurement and supply chain
capabilities.”

MENA M&A transactions $112 bn in first half of 2019
Oman Observer + NewBase
Middle Eastern & North African investment banking fees totalled an estimated $504.8 million so
far during 2019, 12.7 per cent less than the value of fees recorded during the first half of 2018,
according to Refinitiv’s 2019 Q2 investment banking analysis released here yesterday.
Debt capital markets underwriting fees totalled $147.6 million, up 1.7 per cent year-on-year the
second highest fee volume for the region since our records began in 2000.
Equity capital markets fees decreased 64.8 per cent to $24 million, a 10-year low.
Fees generated from completed M&A transactions totalled $207.4 million, a 232 per cent
increase from last year to the second highest level on record. Syndicated loan fees reached
$125.8 million, down 58.4 per cent from YTD 2018.
Debt capital markets fees accounted for 29.2 per cent of the overall Middle Eastern & North
African investment banking fee pool, the second highest market share since YTD 2001.
Syndicated lending fees accounted for 24.9 per cent while the share of completed M&A advisory
fees raised to the highest YTD level on record, accounting for 41.1 per cent of the market.
Equity capital markets underwriting fees accounted for 4.8 per cent, a 10-year low. HSBC earned
the most investment banking fees in the Middle East & North Africa so far during 2019, a total of
$65.8 million for a 13 per cent share of the total fee pool.
As to Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), driven by state-owned ARAMCO’s $69.1 billion acquisition
of SABIC, the value of announced M&A transactions with any Middle Eastern & North African
involvement at an all-time high reaching $112 billion in the first half of 2019, 231 per cent more
than the value recorded during YTD 2018. Additionally, both Middle Eastern and North African
target and Inter-MENA/Domestic transactions currently stand at all-time highs rising to $101.2
billion and $86.1 billion, up 375 per cent and 699 per cent from YTD 2018, respectively.

While MENA inbound M&A also stands at a YTD all-time high of $15.1 billion, outbound M&A
decreased from $6.5 billion in YTD 2018 to $4.6 billion so far during 2019, the lowest volume
since YTD 2004.
Energy & Power deals currently account for 80 per cent of Middle Eastern and North African
involvement M&A by value, followed by the financial sector with a 13.7 per cent market share but
counting with 44 transactions, 18 more than the 26 recorded in the Energy & Power industry.
As to Equity Capital Markets, Middle Eastern and North African equity and equity-related issuance
totalled $1.1 billion so far during 2019, a 73 per cent decrease year-on-year to the lowest level
since YTD 2004.
With $923.2 million, IPOs represent 88 per cent of the region’s ECM issuance, up from 16 per
cent during YTD last year. Arabian Centres Co Ltd IPO raised $658.6 million and stands out as
the biggest deal so far this year.
Despite showing a 12 per cent decreased compared to YTD 2018, debt issuance in the Middle
Eastern and North African region currently stands at the third highest level since our records
began, reaching $53.1 billion so far this year.
Saudi Arabia was the most active nation in the region accounting for 40.5 per cent of activity by
value, followed by the Qatar with 29.6 per cent while Governments and Agencies account for 48.3
per cent of issuance so far this year.

U.S. Oil Lets Top Korean Refiner Pivot Away From Middle East
Bloomberg - Heesu Lee
South Korea’s biggest oil refiner is looking to buy a wider variety of U.S. crude grades in a move
that would reduce its reliance on supplies from the conflict-prone Middle East.
SK Trading International Co. is considering heavier oil grades from the Gulf of Mexico and
Canada as well as ultra-light crude from shale fields if prices are competitive, Chief Executive
Officer Suh Sokwon said in an interview. The unit is the trading arm of SK Innovation Co., Korea’s
top refiner.
Growing U.S. Footprint
South Korea's oil-import growth from Americas outpaced that of Middle East
Source: Korea National Oil Corp. data
American crude is grabbing a bigger slice of Asia as U.S. sanctions crimp supply from Venezuela
and Iran, and flaring tensions in the Persian Gulf after tanker attacks and vessel seizures are
adding further uncertainty for buyers in the world’s largest oil-consuming region. While some
nations are seeking to beef up protection for ships navigating the Arabic Gulf and Strait of
Hormuz, SK said the actual impact on energy flows has been minimal so far.
“We are on the threshold of a new era where American producers will rush to Asia to find
customers,” said Suh, who was appointed as the head of SK Innovation’s trading arm seven
months ago after more than 30 years of working for the company. “It would take time, but once we
have enough understanding and trust in different types and quality of U.S. crude, it is even
possible for us to consider committing ourselves to term contracts.”
A spate of tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman ratcheted up risks of importing oil from the Middle
East, home to OPEC’s top five drillers, just as sellers in America hone in on Asia as a key
destination for their fast-growing exports. SK is in talks with its government for assistance on
insurance and security for its shipments, and in the event of soaring risks and supply disruptions,
the company will seek approval to tap into the state’s oil reserves, said Suh.

The U.S. plans to brief foreign diplomats based in Washington this week on a new maritime
security initiative to protect shipping in the Middle East. In May and June, six tankers were
attacked just outside the Gulf. While Iran has been blamed for attacks on merchant shipping, it
has denied responsibility.
Oil Replacement
From heavier crudes to ultra-light oil known as condensates, American grades are increasingly
able to displace some supplies from the Middle East. That’s providing more supply options to
Asian refiners including SK, which currently buys about 4 million barrels of U.S. crude per month.
South Korea’s imports from the U.S. hit a record of 13.6 million barrels last December, with latest
purchases at about 11.5 million barrels in May.
In early-May, when Donald Trump’s administration opted for a hardline stance on Iran sanctions
and a zero-tolerance approach to oil purchases, SK slashed its imports of South Pars condensate
and in turn imported alternative feedstock such as light oil from U.S. shale fields and Kazakhstan,
while soaking up more naphtha from other nations.
For heavier grades, Suh said higher official prices by Middle Eastern sellers were also eating into
processing margins for companies such as SK, leading to operating rate cuts by refiners across
Asia. Producers have been raising their offers due to a steep backwardation in benchmark Dubai
oil prices, when near-term cargoes are costlier than delayed ones.
“Crack margins have bottomed out in June,” Suh said. “Gasoil and low-sulfur fuel oil profits in
particular will only improve from here on as the market awaits stricter shipping fuel regulations to
kick in,” he added, referring to new rules known as IMO 2020 which mandates the use of less
polluting marine fuel with 0.5% sulfur from January 1, versus a 3.5% sulfur content currently.
In light of a more challenging climate and increased competition, SK may finalize of fuel sales deal
with a company in Southeast Asia this month to lock in demand for its output, according to Suh,

without elaborating on details of the agreement. SK is also testing out a new in-house optimization
tool that takes into account real-time market dynamics, helping it choose the most profitable crude
grade.
IMO 2020
The shortage of very low sulfur fuel oil, or VLSFO, in 2020 is still deeply underestimated and ship
owners will struggle to find fuels that are both stable and compatible, Suh said. In light of this, SK
was among the first movers with its investment in a new desulfurizer unit at its complex in Ulsan
that’ll remove the impurity from heavy fuel.
The addition can make 40,000 barrels a day of low-sulfur gasoil and fuel oil, on top of SK’s
existing oil-blending venture off
Singapore which will expand from
23,000 barrels a day currently to
90,000 barrels by mid-2020.
Apart from ramping up its VLSFO
output, profits from making marine
gasoil -- another fuel that can be
blended into high-sulfur fuel oil to
create an on-spec product -- from
crude is also set to rise to at least
$18 a barrel in the months ahead,
versus the current margin of about
$15. Gasoil margins were at
$15.44 a barrel in Singapore,
Asia’s refining hub, at 11:35 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg fair value.
“If you can’t produce qualified fuels that shipowners can trust, you will soon be out of business,”
Suh said. “Our long experience in refining and offshore blending will definitely set us apart from
other players.”

NewBase 19 July 2019 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil rises after U.S. Navy downs Iranian drone; set for weekly
fall
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices rose on Friday as tensions brewed again in the Middle East after a U.S. Navy ship
destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global crude flows.
Benchmark crude prices were still on track for their biggest weekly decline in seven weeks, having
fallen sharply earlier in the week on hopes for easing Middle East tensions as well as demand
concerns and a dwindling U.S. storm impact.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures were up 111 cents, or 1.79%, at $63.04 a barrel by 0942 GMT, having
risen to $63.32. Brent fell 2.79% on Thursday, falling for a fourth straight session, and was set for
a weekly drop of more than nearly 6%.
West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures rose 77 cents, or 1.39%, at $56.07 per barrel, after
touching $56.36. They ended 2.6% lower in the previous session, and were headed for a weekly
decline of more than 6%.
Oil price special
coverage

Indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively to support the economy were
also behind Friday’s gains, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets.
“The Fed backstop and the report of the U.S. Navy shooting down an Iranian drone are providing
a modicum of support for oil markets amidst a very bearish landscape,” he said.
The United States said on Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had “destroyed” an Iranian drone in the
Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the vessel, but Iran said it had no information about
losing a drone.
Also on Thursday, two influential Federal Reserve officials sharpened the public case for acting to
support the U.S. economy, reviving bets the central bank may deliver a double-barreled interest
rate cut this month.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is reducing its 2019 oil demand growth forecast to 1.1
million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.2 million bpd previously due to a slowing global economy amid
a U.S.-China trade spat, its executive director said on Thursday.

The IEA may cut further if the global economy and especially China shows further weakness,
Fatih Birol told Reuters. “We do believe that oil market fundamentals are at an inflection point.
Non-OPEC supply will grow by over 2 million bpd in 2020, while demand growth is weak,” said
Jason Gammel, analyst at Jefferies.
“The OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts should be sufficient to draw down OECD
inventories through the end of the year, but these cuts will need to be extended through 2020 just
to keep the oil market near balance.”
Speculators have exited options positions that could have provided exposure to higher prices in
the next several years, market participants said on Thursday. U.S. offshore oil and gas production
has continued to return to service since Hurricane Barry passed through the Gulf of Mexico last
week, triggering platform evacuations and output cuts.
Iran drives unplanned OPEC crude oil production outage to
highest levels since late2015 U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2019
Unplanned crude oil production outages for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) averaged 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2019, the highest six-month
average since the end of 2015. EIA estimates that in June, Iran alone accounted for more than
60% (1.7 million b/d) of all OPEC unplanned outages.
Note: OPEC disruptions include crude oil only.
EIA differentiates among declines in production resulting from unplanned production outages,
permanent losses of production capacity, and voluntary production cutbacks for OPEC members.

Only the first of those categories is included in the historical unplanned production outage
estimates that EIA publishes in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Unplanned production outages include, but are not limited to, sanctions, armed conflicts, political
disputes, labor actions, natural disasters, and unplanned maintenance. Unplanned outages can
be short-lived or last for a number of years, but as long as the production capacity is not lost, EIA
tracks these disruptions as outages rather than lost capacity.
Loss of production capacity includes natural capacity declines and declines resulting from
irreparable damage that are unlikely to return within one year. This lost capacity cannot contribute
to global supply without significant investment and lead time.
Voluntary cutbacks are associated with OPEC production agreements and only apply to OPEC
members. Voluntary cutbacks count toward the country’s spare capacity but are not counted as
unplanned production outages.
EIA defines spare crude oil production capacity—which only applies to OPEC members adhering
to OPEC production agreements—as potential oil production that could be brought online within
30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. EIA does
not include unplanned crude oil production outages in its assessment of spare production
capacity.
As an example, EIA considers Iranian production declines that result from U.S. sanctions to be
unplanned production outages, making Iran a significant contributor to the total OPEC unplanned
crude oil production outages.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action became
effective in January 2016, EIA estimated that an average 800,000 b/d of Iranian production was
disrupted. In the first quarter of 2019, the first full quarter since U.S. sanctions on Iran were re-
imposed in November 2018, Iranian disruptions averaged 1.2 million b/d.

Another long-term contributor to EIA’s estimate of OPEC unplanned crude oil production outages
is the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Production halted there
in 2014 because of a political dispute between the two countries. EIA attributes half of the PNZ’s
estimated 500,000 b/d production capacity to each country.
In the July 2019 STEO, EIA only considered about 100,000 b/d of Venezuela’s 130,000 b/d
production decline from January to February as an unplanned crude oil production outage. After a
series of ongoing nationwide power outages in Venezuela that began on March 7 and cut
electricity to the country's oil-producing areas, EIA estimates that PdVSA, Venezuela’s national oil
company, could not restart the disrupted production because of deteriorating infrastructure, and
the previously disrupted 100,000 b/d became lost capacity.
NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 19 July 2019
Supply gluts mean the usual market movers have lost their power.
By Liam Denning
Saturday is shaping up to be national air-conditioner day. And while we ordinary humans love a
“heat dome” about as much as a “polar vortex,” natural gas bulls should be all over that surge in
electricity demand. But they’re nowhere to be seen.

“Cooling-degree days” are a measure of how hot it is relative to normal. Since July 2011, when
the data series begins on the Bloomberg Terminal, there have been 22 weeks where the forecast
for cooling-degree days was 90 or more (translation: hot). This week, coming in at 93, is one of
them. But with natural gas currently hovering at about $2.30 per million BTU, it also scores as the
weakest week in terms of pricing.
This summer of more heat than light is a microcosm of the broader problem facing the exploration
and production business. And it’s a searing reminder of some salient points as quarterly earnings
calls beckon.
Natural gas prices have been moribund for a while. Having cracked the code on shale first,
resurgent U.S. gas supply overwhelmed demand growth years ago. The migration of fracking to
oil – which tends to bring a lot of associated gas with it – exacerbated this. At several points this
year, gas has changed hands in west Texas at negative prices; in other words, producers have
paid customers to take it off their hands.
Take My Gas, Please
Excess natural gas, produced essentially for free from Permian wells, has sometimes traded at
less than zero this year
Source: Bloomberg
Price-insensitive gas production, as well as shale’s relatively short development schedule, is why
even a heatwave does little for the market. Inventory may be running a bit below average for this
time of year (although the gap has been shrinking since March). But why worry when there’s a
seemingly endless supply of the stuff coming up in ever bigger quantities from fracked wells?
Oil producers suffer similarly from too much of a good thing. U.S. crude oil output is forecast to
surge this year – just as it did last year. And 2020 is shaping up for a big increase, too.
The Surge
By 2020, U.S. crude oil output is expected to have risen by 4.4 million barrels a day in the space
of four years

Source: Energy Information Administration
Note: Data for 2019 and 2020 are forecasts.
This is why, just as the prospect of sweaty armpits does nothing to arouse passions in the gas
market, oil prices are seemingly impervious to the usually trusty aphrodisiacs of OPEC
cuts and threats of war (ominous economic data and trade conflicts haven’t helped either).
The sheer indifference to oil and gas is evident not just in the energy sector’s miserable sub-5%
weighting in the S&P 500 Index, but also the futures markets for the commodities themselves.
Hedge funds’ net length in the three big crude oil contracts combined has dropped sharply since
April, back toward the depths plumbed in January and February, when Brent was about $10 lower
than today. More telling, perhaps, is the slump in open interest in general, with analysts at JBC
Energy noting in a report this week that speculative positions in the Nymex West Texas
Intermediate benchmark are at their lowest level since 2013. The picture looks a bit better when
considering the big three together, but not much:
Not Buying It (Or Selling It Either)
The combination of shale, OPEC, Iranian saber-rattling, Trumpian tweeting, and trade tiffs has
made betting on oil’s direction a hazardous and ultimately unpopular pursuit. As for speculative
interest in natural gas, combined positions hit their lowest point in almost eight years in February,
but have since expanded – all on the short side.
Harsh as it may sound, the lesson oil and gas companies should draw from this is that no one
cares about their oil and gas (not in the sense of investing, anyway). Which means one of the big
reasons to own an E&P stock – a leveraged bet on oil and gas prices – is now a very small
reason. Highly leveraged producers at the mercy of the oil and gas gods, such as Chesapeake
Energy Corp. and California Resources Corp., may have offered a wild ride but not much else.
So when producers lay out guidance for the second half of the year, investors will want to hear a
message of restraint; taking it easy rather than ramping up production into a market that doesn’t
need it. Giving free cash flow to investors, rather than free rein to frack crews, is the advisable
option at this juncture.

Speculative interest in crude oil has slumped
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Long and short positions held in Nymex WTI and ICE Brent and WTI contracts.
The industry largely took the opposite approach this time last year, taking a short, sharp rally in oil
prices as a cue to bust through spending budgets. Investors responded with a year-end sell-off.
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
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NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service –
Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

New base issue 1251 special 19 july 2019 energy news

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