New base 560 special 15 march 2015

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NewBase 15 March 2015 - Issue No. 560 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
UAE: Adgas signs 491m EPC contract for Integrated
Gas Development Expansion
Gulf News + NewBase
Abu Dhabi - On behalf of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company , ADNOC , Abu Dhabi Gas
Liquefaction Company (ADGAS) signed today the Engineering, Procurement &
Construction (EPC) contract for the First Phase of the Integrated Gas Development
Expansion phase-I (IGD-E1) Project, with a consortium of Tecnimont-Archirodon, at an
approximate value of US$ 491 million. The project total duration is 40 months and
forecasted to be completed by June 2018.
The Lump-sum turnkey agreement was signed today at ADGAS HQ premises, by Mr. Fahim
Kazim,ADGAS CEO, Mr. PierrobertoFolgiero, Tecnimont CEO, and Mr. Dennis Karapiperis,
Archirodon Chief Operating Officer, in the presence of Dr. Saif Al Nasseri, Director of Gas
Processing, ADNOC , and a number of senior officials from both parties.
"The project we signed today signifies a major milestone which reflects ADGAS new vision and
commitment to participate in the country's national energy strategy. It's our pleasure to have a
consortium of Tecnimont-Archirodon with us in this mega project, which requires maximum
attention in terms of quality and HSE", said Mr. Fahim Kazim in a statement after the signing
ceremony.
"In this particular project, the consortium has demonstrated its competitive edge in terms of
pricing, schedule and willingness to do the project and we assure them of our maximum co-
operation to do the job successfully," he added.

The agreement includes the construction and commissioning of new facilities on Das Island that is
required for increasing the offshore gas processing capacity, including construction of new 4th gas
Dehydration train, New common dry gas compression after coolerand land reclamation works for
the IGDE Phase l & II.
The project is part of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company ( ADNOC 's) strategic initiatives for
meeting the growing demand for energy locally. aimed at enhancing the gas production capacity
by developing the facilities of the existing IGD project to boost the gas export from offshore to
onshore.
Recently, Abu Dhabi Gas Industries Ltd. (GASCO) and Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Company Ltd
(ADGAS ) have awarded three Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning
(EPC) Contracts for the Integrated Gas Development Expansion (IGD-E I) Project to multiple
renowned Contractors on Lump Sum Turnkey Basis.
IGD-E Project is a unified project to further increase Offshore gas export capacity by an
incremental 400 MMSCFD Offshore HP Gas from Das Island to Habshan. This will be in addition
to the current gas processing capacity of 1,000 MMSCFD realized under the OAG and IGD
Projects.
The new facilities at Habshan-5 will also accommodate an additional onshore Gas 300 MMSCFD
from Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (ADCO) North East Bab (NEB-III). In
addition to 439 MMSCFD from North West Abu Dhabi offshore field.

Qatar: N-power a strong option for Qatar: Expert
The Peninsula + NewBase
Nuclear power must be a strong energy option for Qatar to meet its ever-growing energy demand
and to fulfil its commitment to sustainable development. As the neighbouring Abu Dhabi is set to
launch the region’s first nuclear power plant in 2017 and Saudi Arabia in the making of its own
nuclear plants, there is no point in Qatar, which is
physically so close to these two countries, shying away
from nuclear power, Lady Barbara Judge, former
Chairperson of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy
Authority, told The Peninsula in an interview.
“The GCC countries are perfect places to build nuclear
power plants. Qatar is a country that needs a bouquet
of energy resources. It’s not ideal for any country to rely
on just one energy source”, she said during her recent
Doha visit.
Lady Judge, who is currently the Deputy Chairperson of the Tepco Nuclear Reform Monitoring
Committee and Chairperson of its Nuclear Safety Task Force, is actively involved in the upcoming
Abu Dhabi nuclear power plant and was an Advisor to the launch of nuclear power plant in
Jordan.
She recalled that it was almost seven years ago she first talked about the need for Qatar
considering benefits of nuclear energy, at an event in Qatar. Abu Dhabi began working on it
almost during the same year and it is now in the final phase of launching its power plant.
Things are fast changing. Every country needs an energy mix. Right now you may have got a lot
of gas or oil. But there will be a day when these resources will run out. Never depend on one
energy source, that’s dangerous and uneconomic… That’s why even the energy giants like Saudi
are considering nuclear power.
It seems Qatar is overly concerned about the safety side of having a nuclear plant. But the fact is
Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are building nuclear plants, and Qatar is right in the middle.
Fukushima was an accident…In fact, no source of energy is risk-free in the world, Lady Judge
said.
Germany’s energy transition has created a lot of mess in that country’s energy sector. In the UK,
we did not stop after Fukushima and we are in the process of launching more nuclear plants.
China, India, Vietnam, Turkey… all these countries are in the process of building new nuclear
power plants. “
Lady Judge said nuclear energy is the only real answer to the problem of Climate Change.
Everybody knows that nuclear doesn’t emit carbon. “I strongly believe the world needs a bouquet
of energy sources. It needs oil, it needs gas, it needs coal it needs renewable to make feel better
about people about carbon emission it”.
On Qatar’s potential for solar energy, she commented: “ Yes, I think solar is excellent for this part
of the world. You can always use it as a top up resource. But I don’t believe solar will solve the
entire problems. It’s just one part of the solution”.

Egypt: Italy's Eni seals $5bn Egypt gas exploration deal
Reuters + NewBas
Italian oil major Eni signed heads of agreement with the Egypt worth $5 billion over 4-5 years, the
oil minister and the company said on Saturday at a weekend investment summit in the Red Sea
resort of Sharm El Sheikh.
Oil Minister Sherif Ismail said he expected the investment in several discoveries would generate
production of 900 million standard cubic feet of gas. He said the investment was for concessions
in the Mediterranean, the Western Desert, the Nile Delta and Sinai, and added the deal would be
finalised within six weeks.
Meanwhile, UAE-based Dana
Gas has announced plans to
invest $350 million in Egypt over
the next 30 months and expects
to receive outstanding arrears
from the government by the end
of 2016.
The investments include drilling
nearly 40 new development
wells, a similar number of
workovers on existing wells,
building new pipelines and
debottlenecking an existing
plant, the company's chief
executive Patrick Allman-Ward
told Reuters at the summit.
He said he expected Egypt to
pay Dana $185 million in arrears
by the end of 2016, but added if
they failed to do so, the
company would recover the
money by the end of 2018 by
selling the government's share
of condensate exports under a
production agreement.
"The mechanism will allow us to
recover the current overdue
receivables over the course of
time," noted Allman-Ward. Egypt
has delayed payments to oil and
gas firms as its economy has
been hampered by four years of instability since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
The oil ministry said last week it would repay its remaining $3.1 billion debt to foreign oil and gas
companies by mid-2016, a year later than previously indicated. Arrears began to accumulate

before the revolt, but worsening state finances saw the debts mount to billions of dollars while the
government diverted gas earmarked for export to meet domestic demand.
Gas production has steadily declined in Egypt while consumption has risen, but firms have been
reluctant to increase investment in exploration and production until the government pays them.
Allman-Ward said the government last year paid $60 million in arrears to Dana, which relies on
Egypt for over half of its output.
He called for reforms to reduce inefficiency in Egypt's energy sector where discoveries require the
establishment of new joint ventures with redundant capacity. "I'm sure there's some consolidation
that could be carried out to make this process more efficient. It's not the way it's done in other
countries, in other petroleum environments," he said.
Allman-Ward also said having the state-owned oil and gas companies as joint venture partners
and regulators was inefficient. "This blurring of the lines between regulatory responsibilities and
partnership is intrinsically a conflict of interest and it does lead to misalignments of interest", he
said.
At the conference, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait pledged an additional $12 billion in central
bank deposits and investments to close ally Egypt, in a big boost to President Abdel Fattah Al
Sisi's efforts to strengthen the economy.
"If you are flying the UAE flag and doing business in Egypt one hopes a component of the
goodwill... is helpful in terms of building relationships and concluding negotiations and making
business investments," said Allman-Ward.

Iraq: ShaMaran announces Y/E 2014 reserves
Source: ShaMaran
ShaMaran Petroleum reports updates to estimated reserves and contingent resources for
the Atrush block as of December 31, 2014. The reserves and contingent resources estimates
were provided by McDaniel & Associates Consultants, the Company's independent qualified
resources evaluator, and were prepared in accordance with standards set out in the Canadian
National Instrument NI 51-101 and Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGEH).
McDaniel estimates for reserves and contingent resources have taken into account the results of
all available drilling, well testing results and other information acquired since December 31, 2013,
i.e. Atrush-4, Chiya Khere-5 (CK-5), CK-8 and CK-6, the latest remapping based on the final
3D seismic processing and
the ongoing commitment to
and work program in
support of the first phase of
Atrush development as
defined by the KRG
approved Field
Development Plan.
Possible reserves are those
additional reserves that are
less certain to be recovered
than probable reserves.
There is a 10% probability
that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus
possible reserves.
The reserves were estimated using forecast prices and costs. The sales oil price was based on
the McDaniel January 1, 2015 price forecast. The estimated discount to Brent is made up of a
unit cost element and a percentage element and accounts for the quality differential,
transportation tariffs and marketing fees.
All of the Atrush oil production is to be exported via the Khurmala-Fishkabur pipeline to Turkey. A
37 kilometre pipeline is being built from the Atrush Field to a tie-in point on this export line and
will be operated by KRG. At this stage the oil price differential is uncertain and any additional
announcements of sales
and pricing of exported
Kurdish crude during 2015
may impact on future price
scenarios.
The updated estimates of
contingent resources for
the Atrush block are as
follows:
The resources included in
the table above are
classified as contingent as the associated project(s) are dependent upon the results of the Atrush

Phase 1 development and ongoing appraisal work; this first phase of development should,
together with further appraisal drilling, narrow the uncertainty in the contingent resources
estimates and help determine if their development is economic.
There were no material changes to the range of reserves reported at December 31, 2013, and it
therefore remains the view of the Company that the reserve base continues to support the
30,000 bpd Atrush Phase 1 development program scheduled for startup in the fourth quarter of
2015. A reduction in contingent resources from the quantities reported as of December 31, 2013
reflects a more complex geological structure (interpreted from the 3D seismic data processed in
2014 and year to date well results) and a reduced estimate of recovery factor from the rock
matrix. The recoverable estimates are related to a water drive mechanism as per the current field
development plan and therefore exclude any upside associated with any future improved oil
recovery efforts
As there was no new information that impacted prospective resources the December 31, 2013
report was not updated for prospective resources.
Additional information related to above noted reserve and resource estimates, including net
present value estimates, is included in Form 51-101F1, which may be viewed under the
Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
The Atrush Block is operated by the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC
('TAQA') and is held 39.9% by TAQA, ShaMaran Petroleum, through its wholly owned
subsidiary General Exploration Partners (GEP) 20.1%, 15% Marathon Oil KDV, (a wholly
owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil Corp, and 25% by the KRG. Atrush reserves and resource
estimates presented represent solely the view of ShaMaran and its experts.

Pakistan: KUFPEC to Explore for Oil, Gas in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
KUNA + NewBase
Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (KUFPEC) on Friday signed an agreement to
explore for oil and natural gas Pakistan’s Paharpur block, Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reported.
The Paharpur block is located in D.I. Khan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of
Pakistan and covers an area of approximately 2,261
sq. km.
The deal was inked by KUFPEC CEO Sheikh Nawaf
Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah and Pakistan's Secretary
for Petroleum and Natural Resources Arshad Mirza,
As the operator, KUFPEC will partner with State Oil
and Gas Company of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other
national exploration and production companies of
Pakistan, KUNA reported quoting Al-Sabah.
The Paharpur block will be KUFPEC's second operated asset in the country and its first in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The company also operates the Jati exploration block in Sindh, where drilling
activities are expected to
commence shortly, KUNA said.
KUFPEC is the third largest gas
producer amongst foreign
exploration and production comp
anies operating in Pakistan.

US: Scheduled 2015 capacity additions mostly wind and natural gas;
retirements mostly coal. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
In 2015, electric generating companies expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale
generating capacity to the power grid. The additions are dominated by wind (9.8 GW), natural gas
(6.3 GW), and solar (2.2 GW), which combine to make up 91% of total additions.
Because different types of generating capacity have very different utilization rates, with nuclear
plants and natural gas combined-cycle generators having utilization factors three to five times
those of wind and solar generators, capacity measures alone do not directly show how much
generation is actually provided by new capacity of each type. Nearly 16 GW of generating
capacity is expected to retire in 2015, 81% of which (12.9 GW) is coal-fired generation.
The addition of more natural gas, solar, and wind generating capacity follows the pattern of
the past several years. Although most states have a planned addition of some type this year, a
few trends have emerged:
• Wind additions are largely found in the Plains states, with nearly 8.4 GW, or 85% of total
wind additions, found between North Dakota and Minnesota in the north, to Texas and New
Mexico in the south.
• Utility-scale solar additions of systems with at least one megawatt of capacity are
dominated by two states—California (1.2 GW) and North Carolina (0.4 GW)—which
combined for 73% of total solar additions. Both states have renewable portfolio standard
(RPS) policies in place, with North Carolina's policy including a solar-specific target. These
figures do not include small-scale installations such as residential rooftop solar photovoltaic
systems.
• Natural gas additions are spread throughout the country, but Texas is adding more than
double any other state (1.7 GW, 27% of total natural gas additions). There are also many

additions in the Mid-Atlantic region, with more than 1.6 GW, or 26% of total natural gas
additions, expected in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland.
• Tennessee Valley Authority's Watts Bar 2 nuclear facility in southeastern Tennessee, with a
summer nameplate capacity of 1.1 GW, is currently listed as coming online in December
2015. When it comes online, it will be the first new nuclear reactor brought online in the
United States in nearly 20 years.
These values reflect reported additions and retirements, not model projections. In many years,
expected capacity additions in December were much higher than in any other month. The
impending expiration of certain tax credits on December 31 often encourages a rush of activity to
start or complete projects by the end of the year, depending on how the credit is awarded. Large
reported values in December are also attributable to how respondents complete the survey; many
projects expected to begin operation sometime in 2015 are conservatively estimated for a
December completion date.
Generator retirements are heavily composed of coal-fired generation, with nearly 13 GW expected
to be retired in 2015. The total of scheduled coal-fired generating capacity retirements is split
between 10.2 GW of bituminous coal and 2.8 GW of subbituminous coal. Most of this retiring coal
capacity is found in the Appalachian region: slightly more than 8 GW combined in Ohio, West
Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and Indiana.
The coal-fired units
planned to be retired are
smaller and operate at a
lower capacity factor than
average coal-fired units in
the United States. The to-
be-retired units have an
average summer
nameplate capacity of 158
MW, considerably smaller
than the 261 MW average
for other coal-fired units.
Based on 2013 data, the
retiring units have a
weighted-average
capacity factor of 24%,
which is much lower than
the average capacity
factor of 60% for all coal-
fired generators over the
same time frame.
The large number of coal-fired generator retirements is primarily because of the implementation of
the Environmental Protection Agency's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) this year,
although some units have been granted extensions to operate through April 2016. MATS requires
large coal- and oil-fired electric generators to meet stricter emissions standards by incorporating
emissions control technologies in existing generating facilities. Some power plant operators have
decided that retrofitting units to meet the new standards will be cost-prohibitive and are choosing
to retire units instead.

Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
New glut concern emerges as oil refiners ramp up output
Bloomberg + NewBase
As crude prices stabilised in recent weeks following their collapse last year, one of the key
reasons analysts pointed to was bargain hunting by oil refiners. Don’t expect it to last.
Global refining has surged so much - it rose the most since 2010 in the fourth quarter - that it risks
creating a glut of fuel products that prompts operators to scale back their purchases of crude,
according to firms including Morgan Stanley and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. That, in turn, could start
pushing oil prices back down, they say.
“Refiners may run
very hard over the
next few months,
which is supportive
for crude-oil balances
near term, but they
could flood product
markets again,” Adam
Longson, an analyst
at Morgan Stanley in
New York, said by
phone on Tuesday.
Brent futures have
rebounded 17% to $54.67 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange from the
five-year low reached on January 13. While there are signs of stronger fuel use from consumers,
much of the improvement in demand has been driven by opportunistic buying by refiners and
purchases to put crude in storage, according to the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based
policy adviser to 29 nations
Idled refining capacity is at 2.98mn bpd, the lowest for the time of year since at least 2009,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Processing totalled 78.3mn bpd worldwide last quarter,
a gain of more than 2mn from a year earlier, according to the IEA. Half of the increase was in
Europe.
The profit from producing gasoline in northwest Europe climbed to as high as $14.48 a barrel on
Thursday, the most in almost a year, according to data from PVM Oil Associates.
European refiners have shut about 15 plants since 2008, according to the IEA, the biggest wave
of closures since the 1980s, as recession curbed fuel demand and more efficient plants opened in
Asia and the Middle East.
Profit strengthened in the fourth quarter and early 2015, Italian oil refiner Saras said when it
reported earnings on February 24. Higher refining margins in most regions supported Royal Dutch
Shell’s earnings in 2014, the company said on January 29. Fourth-quarter processing earnings at

Repsol improved by a third from a year earlier to $5.50 a barrel, Spain’s largest oil company said
on February 26.
“Refiners in Europe are running hard and they’re making too much product,” Jonathan Leitch, a
London-based research director at Wood Mackenzie said by phone March 9. The region will refine
about 11.4mn barrels of crude a day this quarter, about 260,000 a day more than a year earlier,
and “eventually this will produce a glut.”
There could be a repeat of 2014, when refiners encouraged by booming earnings operated at
maximum rates in the second quarter and “flooded the market,” Morgan Stanley’s Longson said.
Brent tumbled 16% in the following three months.
Total inventories of crude and refined products in the 34 industrialised nations in the Organisation
of Economic Cooperation and Development may approach a record of 2.83bn barrels by the
middle of the year, according to the IEA. OECD members were storing 2.7bn barrels of crude and
fuel in January.
Refiners’ appetite for cheaper crude probably won’t be met with a commensurate increase in
consumer demand, Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said by e-mail. The
immediate demand impact of lower prices is minimal because people don’t rush to buy larger cars
or drive more, he said.
The IEA lowered
estimates for global oil
demand growth this
year to 1mn bpd,
down from a
projection of 1.4mn in
July, saying lower
crude prices are
curbing economic
expansion in
exporting nations
such as Russia and
Venezuela.
Many oil companies
are doubtful the
current boom will last.
BP anticipates a
“weaker refining
environment” this year
while Total is cutting refining and petrochemicals capacity in Europe by a fifth. The rebound in
crude prices that refiners helped trigger could also be what halts the industry pickup, according to
London-based Energy Aspects Ltd.
“Record-high refinery runs have helped absorb a significant part of the crude glut,” Amrita Sen,
chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, said by e-mail on March 10. “But a lot of this demand will
disappear when prices rise again.”

IEA sees global oil glut worsening
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices might have stabilised only temporarily because the global oil glut is worsening and US
production shows no sign of slowing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned yesterday..
The West’s energy watchdog said the US may soon run out of spare capacity to store crude,
which would put additional downward pressure on prices.
That process would last at least until the second half of 2015, when growth in US oil production is
expected to start abating. Combined with an increase in global demand, the expected US
production slowdown would give some support to oil prices and respite to oil producers’ group
Opec, the IEA said.
“On the face of it, the oil price appears to be stabilising. What a precarious balance it is, however,”
the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report. “Behind the facade of stability, the rebalancing
triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect
it to proceed smoothly.”
The IEA said steep drops in the US rig count have been a key driver of the recent price rebound,
which saw Brent crude rising to $60 per barrel after falling as low as $46 in January from last
year’s peaks of $115. “Yet US supply so far shows precious little sign of slowing down. Quite to
the contrary, it continues to defy expectations,” the IEA said.
In February, non-Opec production is estimated to have risen by about 270,000 barrels per day
(bpd) on a month-on-month basis to 57.3mn bpd, led by higher output in North America.
Global supply rose by 1.3mn bpd year-on-year to an estimated 94mn bpd in February, led by a
1.4mn-bpd gain for non-Opec producers.
US crude inventories soared due to output growth and plunging crude refinery throughput, with
seasonal and unplanned refinery outages, weak margins and high gasoline stock builds.
At last count, US crude stocks stood at a record 468mn barrels, the IEA said. “US stocks may
soon test storage capacity limits. That would inevitably lead to renewed price weakness, which in
turn could trigger the supply cuts that have so far remained elusive,” the IEA said.
“While the US supply response to lower prices might take longer to kick in than expected, it might
also prove more abrupt,” it said, adding that growth would abate in the second half of 2015.
The IEA’s conclusions will disappoint Opec, which kept its output steady at the group’s last
meeting in November to protect market share and stifle US oil output growth.
In the second quarter of 2015, when demand is at its weakest due to global refinery maintenance,
the need for Opec crude will be 28.5mn bpd, the IEA said - compared to the group’s current output
of 30.22mn bpd in February.
The IEA raised its demand forecast for the second half of 2015, which in turn led to a higher call

on Opec crude of 30.3mn bpd in the same period - closer to the group’s real production levels and
the official target of 30mn bpd.
Having bottomed in the second quarter of 2014, global oil demand growth has since steadily risen,
with year-on-year gains estimated at 1.0mn bpd for the first quarter of 2015, the IEA said.
The forecast of demand growth for 2015 as a whole has been raised by 75,000 bpd to 1.0mn bpd
versus the last report and versus the 680,000 bpd growth seen in 2014, bringing global demand
this year to an average of 93.5mn bpd.
“Tentative signs of a demand recovery have emerged with the turn of the year, with a heavy
emphasis reserved for the word ‘tentative’,” the IEA said. In other bullish factors - beyond political
instability in certain producing countries such as Iraq and Libya - refined product markets have
proved unexpectedly strong, the IEA said.
Oil prices fell after the IEA report. Benchmark Brent crude fell more than 2% on the day and was
on track to its sharpest weekly decline in two months as a weaker US stock market applied further
pressure on oil.
Brent fell $1.40, or 2.5%, to $55.68 a barrel after hitting a one-month low at $55.37. It was on track
to a 7% drop on the week, its largest decline since mid-January. US crude was down $1.81, or
almost 4%, at $45.24, after falling to a January 30 low of $45.01. It was headed for a 9% loss on
the week, its most since mid-December.

Impact of the “Arab Spring” on Oil Production of MENA Countries*
Dr. M.W. Ibrahim (TargetExploration.com)
When Mohammad BouAzizi ignited himself on the 17th
of December 2010 in the small town of Sidi
Bouzid in southern Tunisia, he probably did not dream that his action will generate the on-going
“Arab Spring” wave that toppled President Ben Ali and few other leaders of Arabian MENA
countries.
An analysis of published iea oil production versus oil consumption of Middle East and North
African countries reveals four patterns of changes in the oil export/consumption statistics of
MENA countries before the “Arab Spring” in the unaffected statistics of January-December 2010
and three years later of on-going Arab in December 2013, (Table 1):

A. Impact on Oil Exporting MENA Countries:
1. An increase in oil production and consumption of major Middle East oil producers which were
not affected by the “Arab Spring” such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Oman and
Bahrain as shown in Figure 1 below.
2. A decrease in oil production and an increase in oil consumption of the North African oil
producers which were slightly affected by the “Arab Spring” such as Algeria and Chad.
3. A sharp decrease in the oil production and consumption of Libya which was badly affected by
the “Arab Spring” revolts in early 2011, and on-going civil war that followed.
4. A decrease in oil production and consumption in MENA countries already affected by revolts
and civil wars that predates the 2010 Arab Spring; such as Sudan, S. Sudan and Iran (affected
by the on-going post-presidential election Iranianuprising of June 2009conflicts in Syria and
Iraq, as well as the USA and EU sanctions).
B. Impact on Oil Importing MENA Countries:
1. An increase in oil consumption against stable oil production was noticed in the energy statistics
of Turkey, Mauritania and Jordan which were indirectly affected by the “Arab Spring” revolts
during 2011-2013 as shown by table 1 and figure 1 below.
2. A decrease in oil consumption against stable oil production was noticed in in the energy
balance of Morocco which was not affected by the “Arab Spring.
3. A decrease in oil production and an increase in consumption was noticed in the energy
statistics of Tunisia; the birth place of the “Arab Spring”.
4. The national administrations in the Occupied Territories of Palestine were not affected by the
“Arab Spring” Revolt; the Occupier’s statistics expresses a decrease in oil consumption against
stable oil production. However, the Palestinians living in Egypt, Syria and Lebanon were
targeted by the besieged regimes of Syria and Egypt; and the Israeli Army took the distraction
of world attention to attack Gaza (one of the main reasons for the Arab Spring Revolt).
C. The Impact Removed Some MENA Countries from the List of Oil Exporting ountries:
Some MENA countries were so badly affected by the “Arab Spring” and suffered a sharp decrease
in their oil production to the extent that they lost their status as oil exporting countries; such as
Egypt, Yemen and Syria. There are no published date on possible oil imports of Syria and Yemen,
but it is known that Egypt became a recipient of Arabian Gulf oils during 2014.
D. Directly Impacted but remained an Oil Exporting Country:
Production Table 1 and Figure 1 above show Iraq as an anomaly among the MENA countries that
were badly affected by the “Arab Spring”, as it display an increase in oil production and
consumption during 2010-2013. However, the wave of Arab spring reached Iraq as peaceful
demonstrations in early 2011, and gradually transformed to an open civil war and the rise of the
Islamic State in early 2014.

Finally, Table 1 show that total MENA countries daily oil productiondropped by relatively
insignificant 21,000 BOPD while daily oil consumption increased by a significant 715,000 BOPD
after three years of the Arab Spring.
The insignificant loss of daily oil production was compensated for by an increase in oil production
by the unaffected major oil producers, and probably by undeclared cross borders oil shipment
from the producers who were impacted by the Arab Spring Revolt. However, there is no immediate
explanation for the significant increase in oil consumption in 2013 apart from using it as oil
shipment from the major producers to the less privileged Arab countries such as Jordan, Bahrain
and recently Egypt.
About the writer :
Muhammad Wijdan Ismail IBRAHIM, Petroleum Geologist
Target Exploration, London W14 8NW, UK. Tel (+44) 2073712240 / Fax (+44) 207 371 4120 / Mob (+965)
97635026 E-Mail: M.Ibrahim@TargetExploration.Com .
Summary
Qualified* and experienced exploration, development and new ventures geologist.
• Track record of participating in regional studies, field development and hydrocarbon discoveries.
• Multidiscipline geosciences team member, team leader, motivator, communicator and presenter.
Academic Background
1. PhD and MSc in Petroleum Geology, Imperial College, University of London.
2. Lectured on Petroleum Geology and established the Department of Petroleum Geology
3. B.Sc. in Geology (College of Sciences, Univ. of Baghdad)

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile : +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 11 March 2015 K. Al Awadi

New base 560 special 15 march 2015

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New base 560 special 15 march 2015