New base 19 september 2017 energy news issue 1073 by khaled al awadi

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1
NewBase September 19 - 2017 - Issue No. 1073 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: Duabi Grandweld Shipyards wins major KOC contract
Grand
Grandweld Shipyards, a fully integrated shipyard based in Dubai, has secured a contract to
design, construct and deliver four crew boats and six pilot boats for Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).
The contract was signed by Ismail Abdulla, deputy chief executive officer of Kuwait Oil Company,
and Jamal Abki, general manager of Grandweld Shipyards.
The 25-m-long aluminum fast crew boats, with a deck area of 40 sq m will be propelled by two
propellers driven by high-speed marine diesel engines to produce a speed of 25 knots. Each boat
is with a capacity to seat 33 persons including passengers, pilots and crew.
The 23-m-long steel pilot boats will be powered by two high-speed marine diesel engines each
driving fixed pitch propellers to reach a speed of 22 knots. Each of the pilot boat will accommodate
15 passengers and three 3 crew members.
Grandweld is a fully integrated shipyard providing ship building, ship repair, and engineering
solutions to serve the offshore and marine industry around the world. Established in 1984,
Grandweld has developed as one of the region’s most established and versatile shipyards,
providing both quality and value.
Grandweld is a fully integrated shipyard providing shipbuilding, ship repair, and engineering
solutions to serve the offshore and marine industry around the world. Established in 1984,
Grandweld has developed as one of the region’s most established and versatile shipyards,
providing both quality and value.
With its headquarters strategically located in Dubai, Grandweld has been continuously dedicated
to offer a comprehensive range of proven offshore and marine products and services to clients
worldwide.

Saudis May Raise Domestic Gasoline Prices by 80%
Bloomberg - Wael Mahdi and Vivian Nereim
Saudi Arabia is considering a plan to phase out subsidies for gasoline and jet fuel in November at
the latest, as the world’s biggest oil exporter pushes a program to curtail spending after a global
slump in prices.
The government would boost gasoline to parity with varying international prices under the
plan, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. At current levels, this could result in a
hike of about 80 percent for octane-91 grade gasoline to about 1.35 riyals per liter (0.36 cents),
the person said on condition of anonymity. The government plans to delay increases in other
energy prices until early 2018, the person said.
Authorities are expected to make a final decision on the plan in September or October, the person
said. The Saudi finance, economy and energy ministries didn’t immediately respond to requests
for comment.
Energy-subsidy reform is a key part of Saudi Arabia’s plan to overhaul the economy, along with
the sale of stakes in state-owned entities, including the world’s biggest crude exporter known
as Saudi Aramco.
The kingdom raised fuel prices in December 2015 and announced plans for further increases.
Authorities have also announced plans for a cash transfer program that would start before further

subsidy cuts to help Saudis cope with the impact as the economy struggles with the worst
slowdown since the global financial crisis.
“It is important for the Saudi government to cut subsidies in order to ease pressures on budget
deficit,” Tariq Qaqish, managing director of the asset management division at Mena Corp.
Financial Services LLC in Dubai, said by email. “Not only the transportation and logistics sectors
will be affected significantly, any company that is involved in production and needs to transfer their
end products to consumers will be affected.”
Political Sensitivity
The kingdom’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index climbed 0.3 percent at 12:57 a.m. in Riyadh
on Monday. The transportation index fell 0.7 percent, the most in a month.
Removing energy subsidies is politically sensitive in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council,
where many nationals have grown accustomed to generous state benefits and handouts. The
slump in revenue from oil exports have left governments with few options as they grapple with
rising budget deficits.
Saudi Arabia’s budget gap soared to more than 15 percent of economic output in 2015 before
authorities unveiled a plan to transform the economy and balance the budget by 2020.
The neighboring United Arab Emirates became the first country in the oil-rich region to remove
subsidies on transport fuel when it began linking gasoline and diesel prices to global oil markets in
August 2015.
Gasoline and jet fuel would undergo immediate, one-time increases under the Saudi plan, while
the government would raise prices of other fuels gradually between 2018 and 2021, the person
said.
Diesel, Heavy Fuel
The government may put a ceiling on increases in diesel and heavy fuel oil to limit any negative
impact on the economy, as both fuels are used for power generation and industrial activities, the
person said. Electricity rates would rise gradually as power providers passed on at least some of
the increase in fuel prices, the person said.
Benchmark Brent crude has lost about 2 percent this year and was trading at $55.63 a barrel on
Monday at 11:22 a.m. in London.
“The government is taking its first step in removing subsidies for some fuel,” said John
Sfakianakis, director of economics research at Gulf Research Center. “And over the long term, the
economy will become a more efficient user of energy in general, and gasoline in particular.”

Oman can be fully green energy-powered by 2050
Conrad Prabhu
Solar power systems are being installed on the rooftops of as many as 22 schools run by the
Ministry of Education around the Sultanate, underscoring multi-sectoral efforts to promote the
uptake of renewables in Oman.
Seen in conjunction with recent efforts by Oman’s electricity authorities to kickstart renewable
energy development, as well as support smart metering and related initiatives, the latest move
augurs well for the Sultanate’s ambitions to embrace renewables for its energy requirements by
the year 2050, according to a Muscat-based industry executive.
Flemming Christensen (pictured), who heads the Oman operations of CESI Middle East — a
leading technical consulting and
engineering services provider, said his
company is overseeing the delivery of a
solar based rooftop programme for the
Ministry of Education.
“CESI has recently assisted the Authority
for Electricity Regulation (AER) in
developing standards and the policy
framework for a solar roof top
programme, and are currently
supervising a solar installation
programme of 2 MW at 22 schools for
the Ministry of Education, enabling the
vision of renewable power generation to
be included in the educational
programmes,” Christensen stated.
In an interview to the Observer,
conducted against the backdrop of last
week’s Musharaka 2017 Forum organized by Nama Group (The Electricity Holding Company), the
industry expert said the Sultanate was ideally poised to embrace renewables on a major scale.
“There are great opportunities for Oman to capitalise on the natural resources from both the sun
and the unique wind power potential in the Dhofar region,” he said. “The market price of utility
scale solar power generation is now lower than the current spot market price for gas, from recent
published tendered contracts.
The cost of electricity from wind turbines is also declining, allowing for Oman to consider the bold
vision of a fully renewable power generation system by 2050. The adaptation of increasing levels
of uncertain power generation away from traditional gas fired power generation is a significant
challenge for the electricity sector.”
A division of Italian based Centro Elettrotecnico Sperimentale Italiano (CESI), CESI Middle East
has been playing a pivotal role in supporting the power sector’s modernization. It has assisted the
sector in the formulation of policies, the framework and the methodologies in the roll-out of the
Automated Meter Reading (AMR) system for High Value Customers as part of the new Cost
Reflective Tariff scheme introduced earlier this year.

Smart grid: “We have expanded from this earlier work and are now leading the common sector
wide AMR implementation for Nama Group, ensuring both the immediate goals for the provision of
billing data to the Distribution Companies are met, whilst having the preparations for the longer
term objectives in sight,” said Christensen.
“The AMR platform and the business services we are preparing for use in the electricity sector will
serve as stepping stones for the inclusion of distributed renewable power generation and underpin
the development of Smart Grid support in Oman.”
Supporting capacity building and knowhow transfer is also a key part of the company’s vision,
according to the executive. CESI is engaged with capacity building in the five distribution
companies involved in the AMR programme for the CRT customer segment at this time.
“We have developed rigorous training plans and identified the key staff members at the
Distribution Companies whom will be the bearers of the new AMR platform, with a train the trainer
approach. A tailored remotely accessible training program allowing the complexity of the new high
tech electricity meters to be learned over an eight-week period and finally examined is starting this
week. Capacity building is a key component for a successful project outcome,” he added.

US:Coal plants installed mercury controls to meet compliance deadlines
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016 Annual Electric Generator data (EIA-860)
Based on data recently published in EIA’s preliminary annual electric generator survey, several
coal-fired electricity generators in the United States installed mercury control equipment using
activated carbon injection systems just prior to compliance deadlines.
The nature and timing of control additions indicate a strategy to maintain the availability of affected
coal-fired generators by requesting extensions to compliance deadlines and investing in flexible,
low-cost environmental control technology.
At the end of 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced standards to limit
mercury, acid gases, and other toxic pollution from power plants. EPA’s final ruling, called
the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards(MATS), was released on February 16, 2012.
MATS required all coal- and oil-fired generators that sell power and have a capacity greater than
25 megawatts (MW) to comply with emissions limits for toxic air pollutants associated with fuel
combustion such as mercury, arsenic, and heavy metals. At the time, the rule applied to 76% of all
operating coal units, which represented 99% of generating capacity. The initial compliance
deadline was April 16, 2015.
Between January 2015 and April 2016, about 87 GW of coal-fired plants installed pollution-control
equipment, and nearly 20 GW of coal capacity retired. About 26% of those retirements occurred in
April 2015, meeting the MATS rule's initial compliance date. According to analysis by MJ Bradley
& Associates, 142 GW of coal plants had applied for and received one-year extensions that
allowed them to operate until April 2016 while finalizing compliance strategies.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016 Annual Electric Generator data (EIA-860) Early
Release and Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (EIA-860M)
Note: SCR is selective catalytic reduction.
An additional one-year extension to April 2017 was granted to a few units critical to ensuring
electric reliability. Five coal plants with a combined capacity 2.3 GW received this extension. Since
then, two of the five plants have retired, one converted to natural gas, and one installed MATS-
compliant controls. The remaining plant, Oklahoma’s Grand River Energy Center, was given
another emergency extension for reliability issues in April.
Of the coal capacity installing pollution control equipment to comply with MATS, activated carbon
injection (ACI) was the dominant compliance strategy, with close to 78 GWs of coal capacity
adding ACI. Activated carbon injection systems work by injecting powdered activated carbon into
the flue stack (exhaust) of a coal-fired power plant. This powered activated carbon then absorbs
the vaporized mercury from the flue gas and is collected from the plant's particulate collection
device. Activated carbon is a carbonaceous, highly porous adsorptive medium that has a complex
structure composed primarily of carbon atoms
ACI technologies have the shortest construction lead time of the compliance control
technologies—between 12 and 18 months— and the lowest installation cost—about $11 per
kilowatt (kW). Other technologies, such as electrostatic precipitators (ESP) and baghouses have
longer lead times and higher costs. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has the highest average lead
time, at 50 months, and the highest
installation cost, at $228/kW.
Environmental control technologies vary
in terms of what air pollutants they
remove. For example, FGD technologies
can control mercury, sulfur dioxide, and
acid gases, whereas ESPs can control
mercury, non-mercury metals, and acid
gases.

NewBase September 19 - 2017 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil stable on lower Saudi exports, but rising U.S. shale output caps market
Reuters + NewBase
Oil markets were stable on Tuesday, supported by a fall in Saudi Arabian crude exports but
capped by an expected rise in U.S. shale output. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
futures CLc1 were at $50.00 per barrel at 0043 GMT, 9 cents, or 0.2 percent, above their last
settlement.
WTI has been loitering around $50 per barrel since late last week, supported by rising demand
from the restart of many refineries knocked out by Hurricane Harvey, but prevented from breaking
away from that level by rising U.S. crude output.
U.S. shale production is set to rise for a 10th month in a row in October, the U.S. government said
late on Monday. Output across seven shale plays is forecast to rise by nearly 79,000 barrels per
day (bpd) to 6.1 million bpd, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s monthly
drilling productivity report.
Outside the United States, Brent crude futures the international benchmark for oil prices, were at
$55.52 a barrel, up 4 cents.Traders said price support came from data showing Saudi crude
exports fell to 6.693 million bpd in July, down from 6.889 million bpd in June.
Crude Oil Forecast September 19, 2017, Technical Analysis
The WTI Crude Oil market initially rally during the day on Monday, but ran into a significant
amount of resistance above the $50 level. Because of this, we dropped below that psychologically
important level, but I currently see this is a consolidated market. I think that the market is can
Oil price special
coverage

Crude Oil daily chart, September 19, 2017continue to bounce around the $50 level, as we don’t
really know where to go next. If we were to break down below the $49.50 level, the market will
probably drop towards the $48.50 level.
Alternately, if we break above the $50.50 level, the market should then go to the $51 handle next.
I expect a lot of noise in this market over the next several sessions. Because of this, you may be
best served stepping away, or perhaps trading options so that you can limit your risk right away.
Brent
If there’s a clue in the oil market, it’s probably in the Brent market. The reason I say this is that the
WTI and the Brent market tends to move congruently. The Brent market seems to be very
supportive in this
general vicinity, with
$55 being a focal
point. I believe that
this market will
probably rally, and that
probably should keep
the WTI market
somewhat afloat.
Ultimately, if we break
down below the $55
level underneath, then
we probably go lower,
perhaps reaching
towards $54. In the
meantime, I would
expect that this market is more likely to reach towards the $56 level above, and a break above
there should send this market towards the $57.50 level. Quite a bit of volatility can be expected in
this market, but I think that Brent is probably going to lead the way for petroleum markets in
general.

Oil Lingers Below $50 With Refiners Slowing, Producers Hedging
That’s partly because demand typically drops this time of year as many crude-processing plants
shut down in the fall for maintenance. But it’s also because producers are coming to the futures
market whenever West Texas Intermediate prices approach $50 to lock in profits. While that
protects them against a slump, it also makes it more difficult for futures to rise further. Meanwhile,
for the third time this month, a hurricane is heading toward the Caribbean.
“We are moving into the autumn period and that typically is a weaker period seasonally for oil
demand,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London,
said by telephone. At the same time, “$50 is pretty much the magic number which oil producers
come in and hedge. The price of WTI is up against a wall, a producer hedge wall, and it’s going to
be difficult to overcome that.”
While oil’s peaks above $50 have so far failed to stick, futures have gained some strength after
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency boosted
their forecasts for global demand last week. In the U.S., shale producers are set to churn a record
6.08 million barrels a day in October, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Brent for November settlement fell 14 cents to end the session at $55.48 a barrel on the London-
based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.13
to November WTI.
U.S. refineries, including Phillips 66’s plant in Ponca City, Oklahoma, and Total SA’s Port Arthur,
Texas, facility will start seasonal maintenance this month. Other plants that were knocked offline
by Hurricane Harvey, including the nation’s largest, are still working to reach normal operating
levels.
“We’re going to see some recovery in Texas but we’re also going to see some reductions in refining activity
in the rest of the country,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in
St. Louis, said by telephone. “Demand for crude will probably stay pretty weak.”

Far From the Texas Coast, Hurricane Harvey Hits Oil Refiners
Bloomberg - Jessica Summers
Three weeks after Hurricane Harvey ravaged the massive fuel-making industry along the Texas
coast, the region’s recovery from storm damage is starting to disrupt plans for crucial maintenance
at refineries thousands of miles away from the flood zones.
Harvey knocked out almost one-quarter of U.S. refining capacity in late August, sending gasoline
and diesel prices soaring. The storm hit a few weeks before most of the nation’s fuel makers were
set to begin seasonal shutdowns. Demand usually slows at this time of year, so it’s a good time to
make repairs and install new equipment at plants that typically run all day every day.
But at least 13 refineries from Louisiana to Montana with a combined 3.27 million barrels a day
have delayed maintenance for weeks or months, according to company statements and people
familiar with the situations. Some are churning out more fuel to take advantage of strong margins,
while others simply don’t have the personnel because workers were dispatched to help repair and
restart storm-hit facilities along the Gulf of Mexico.
“Any plant that has the option of pushing back the work is probably going to do so,” Robert
Campbell, head of oil products analysis at Energy Aspects Ltd. in New York, said by telephone.
"You have really good margins. There would be concerns about some of the skilled trades, some
of the services required."
The largest U.S. refinery, owned by Motiva Enterprises LLC in Port Arthur, Texas, is said to have
pushed back maintenance on a crude unit to April from September, while Exxon Mobil Corp. said
it delayed work at three refineries to divert workers to Texas, where it’s trying to restart its
Beaumont and Baytown refineries.
Harvey swept through the Gulf Coast, making landfall on Aug. 25 and leading to widespread
closures of refineries, including Motiva’s, with about 605,000 barrels a day of capacity.

While refiners such as Valero Energy Corp., Citgo Petroleum Corp. and Flint Hills Resources LLC
were able to quickly restart plants in the Corpus Christi, Texas, area shortly after Harvey rolled
through, Motiva Port Arthur, Total SA Port Arthur and Exxon Beaumont are among those still
working to reach normal operations. At one point during the hurricane, at least 17 refineries either
shut or operated at reduced rates.
The gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of the profit from refining crude into gasoline, jumped
to the highest level in two years in late August. Profit margins for refineries in the Midwest using
Bakken crude from North Dakota more than doubled, as did margins for plants along the Gulf
Coast that process crude from offshore Louisiana.
“If you’re a refiner in the Midwest and you are unaffected, you’re probably going to want to keep
churning out product to take advantage of the high margins," Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist
at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, said by telephone. "The trouble is, at some
point you’ve got to shut everything down and clean it up.”
Shifting Maintenance
Marathon Petroleum Corp. is postponing the start of maintenance at its Garyville refinery in
Louisiana by about two weeks to October to make up for lost production from its Galveston Bay
and Texas City plants, which had shut due to the hurricane. Exxon said it’s delaying turnarounds
at facilities from Louisiana to Montana.
Phillips 66’s Sweeny refinery in Texas is moving maintenance to February that was set to start this
month. The plant resumed normal operations Sept. 13 after the storm last month. Other Texas
plants shifting maintenance include Valero’s McKee refinery and Andeavor’s El Pasoplant.
Some refineries in the
Midwest have altered
their plans. HollyFrontier
Corp. delayed a
turnaround at its Tulsa
West plant in Oklahoma
to the first quarter of next
year from September,
and October work at
its Woods Cross
site near Salt Lake City
for two weeks. Citgo’s
Lemont plant that serves
the Chicago-area market
also pushed back its
September maintenance.
While there is a risk of
more breakdowns the
longer refiners delay
maintenance, these
delays aren’t likely to
cause huge problems, according to O’Grady.
“Most likely, the refineries that are delaying maintenance will be fine," he said. "We’ll just see a
bigger maintenance season in March."

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release September 19-2017
Big Oil Becomes Greener With Progress in Cutting Pollution
By Anna Hirtenstein
It’s no secret that oil majors are among the biggest corporate emitters of pollution. What may be
surprising is that they’re reducing their greenhouse-gas footprints every year, actively participating
in a trend that’s swept up most corporate behemoths.
Sixty-two of the world’s 100 largest companies consistently cut their emissions on an annual basis
between 2010 and 2015, with an overall 12 percent decline during that period, according to a
report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance released ahead of its conference in London on
Monday.
The findings suggest the most polluting industries had started fighting climate change before
President Donald Trump took office and signaled he’d back out of U.S. participation in the Paris
accord on limiting fossil fuel emissions. Now, as European officials say the White House may
water downits commitment to Paris instead of scrapping the deal, the BNEF report suggests
industry is scaling back the emissions.
“It doesn’t matter if Trump stays in Paris; it’s irrelevant as the states and big corporations are
moving forward with clean energy,” Peter Terium, chief executive officer of the German power
generator Innogy SE, said on the sidelines of the BNEF conference on Monday. “They’re not
waiting. We’re seeing renewable energy becoming more and more competitive opposite fossil
fuels like coal.”

The five biggest oil companies -- Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., BP
Plc and Total SA -- collectively curbed their pollution by an average of 13 percent between 2010
and 2015, the report said. BP cut the most at 25.5 percent. Exxon, the largest emitter among
listed companies, pushed it down by 14 percent.
The report shows a reverse from previous decades, when scientific warnings about climate
change were new and the companies behind the most emissions lobbied policymakers to ignore
the issue. As mega-storms like Hurricane Irma this year and Sandy in 2012 raised consciousness
about the issue, companies even in the oil business have taken steps to rein in pollution and
associate themselves with the green agenda.
The reductions recorded by the 100 top companies saved 70.7 million tons of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases, about as much as Israel emits in a year. Because emissions data takes
so long to compile, 2015 is the latest year covered.
“This is a reflection of growing pressure from shareholders, investor groups and civil society for
more disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as setting reduction targets,” said Laura
McIntyre-Brown, analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the author of the report. “There’s
also an evident trend of increased emissions disclosure among many of the biggest companies.”
Oil’s View
Exxon said it has spent about $8 billion since 2000 to deploy low-emission energy equipment
across its operations and that it’s conducting and supporting research on technologies to make
further cuts. An official at Shell said its new energy business is more focused on “good projects”
rather than meeting a target. A press officer at Total said the figures in the BNEF report were
accurate. BP and Chevron didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
The corporations in the BNEF survey had combined revenue of more than $5 trillion. That’s more
than the gross domestic product of every country except the U.S. and China, according to data
from the World Bank. They wield immense power over the global economy and are having a
sizable impact on the state of the environment, both from their operations and through corporate
lobbying.

While some of the reduction from the big oil companies is probably due to the crash in oil prices
that began in 2014, leading to lower activity across the energy industry, all five majors have
enacted climate and efficiency policies, as well as anti-pollution measures, the report said.
As the energy sector pollutes more than any other industry, even marginal gains can have a
significant impact. Big Oil collectively saved 56.7 million tons of greenhouse gases between 2010
and 2015. That sum excludes Chevron, which only started reporting in 2012.
While progress has been made, there isn’t evidence yet that the oil business could break the link
between its revenue and the pollution it emits, the report concluded. While the energy industry cut
emissions, its revenue declined by 26 percent in the same time period.
Outside the energy industry, companies collectively have managed to pare back emissions while
boosting sales. Collective revenue for the 62 companies covered in the report rose 1.2 percent
while emissions fell 12 percent. In all, 71 million metric tons of greenhouse gases were avoided
while sales gained by $61 billion. Health providers and consumer-product makers led the trend.
“If you think about the oil and gas industry, use of oil and gas for combustion creates emissions,”
said Rick Wheatley, executive vice president of new growth at Xynteo Ltd., a consultancy that
advises Shell, Statoil ASAand Eni SpA on sustainability and long-term planning. “If diversification
into other kinds of energy is on the table, then I think it’s absolutely possible to decouple.”
The trend may continue after almost 200 countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to limits on fossil-fuel
emissions, said Sean Kidney, chief executive officer of the Climate Bond Initiative, an organization
that promotes green bonds sold to pay for environmental projects.
“The Paris agreement has been extraordinarily successful in establishing a new consensus,”
Kidney said. ‘‘There’s a sense of future certainty developing which is influencing decision-making
in the corporate sector.”

China's Electric Vehicles Run on Coal! Yes, But ...
Liam Denning
China's offhand bombshell about potentially consigning gasoline-fueled cars to the scrapheap has
met, predictably, with a round of cheers and jeers.
This is about one of the latter, which concerns the chart below:
Steam Engines
Almost 90 percent of China's power derives from fossil fuels, especially coal
With coal dominating China's electricity generation, a common refrain about electric vehicles is:
What’s the point? A car fed by a wire stretching back to a coalmine doesn’t seem like much of an
improvement over a gasoline pump.
It’s a legitimate point. But it risks obscuring a different, more fundamental point.
The question here is whether or not an electric vehicle truly results in less greenhouse-
gas emissions than a traditional one with an internal combustion engine. This doesn’t just
encompass how the vehicles use their energy, but also where that energy comes from and how
the vehicles get built in the first place -- what are sometimes called “life-cycle” emissions.
The math around emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fuels and generating power is
established. Meanwhile, some studies have also attempted to put numbers around the squishier
concepts of emissions from building cars and batteries and producing and transporting fuels.
Different vehicles have different carbon footprints due to size, materials and so forth. For my
purposes, I am going to use an assumption of 9.7 tons of carbon for a mid-sized vehicle, as per
this study released by the Union of Concerned Scientists in 2015.

Building a battery (I’m only considering full battery-electric vehicles here, not hybrids) adds further
emissions for the electric vehicle. There are relatively few commercial-scale studies on this issue,
with the ones I've seen offering estimates implying ranges of between roughly 150 to 330 pounds
per kilowatt-hour of capacity. Taking the mid-point of that for a 60 kWh battery -- similar to what
you might find in a Chevy Bolt or maybe a Tesla Model 3 -- equates to 7.3 tons of emissions.
Now the fuel, starting with gasoline:
Emissions from producing oil, refining it and distributing the fuel varies widely; Canadian oil sands,
for example, require more energy to produce than many conventional fields. I’ve used the results
of a model developed by the Argonne National Laboratory, which estimates about 5.2 pounds of
emissions per gallon by the time it gets to the pump. Burning the stuff releases another 20
pounds.
Assuming a theoretical Chinese vehicle gets 35 miles per gallon -- a slight improvement on the
figure for 2015 -- this adds up to just over 0.7 pounds per mile.
With the electric car, "fuel" emissions depend on the mix of power sources. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change provides estimates of these before any fuel is burned. Using those,
along with standard emissions for fossil-fuel combustion and assuming 6 percent of the power
gets lost as it is transmitted over the grid, results in these estimates per kWh for the major power
sources:
Measuring Footprints
Coal's emissions are more than double those for natural gas and dwarf all the other sources
Note: Assumes heat rate of 10,500 BTU and 8,000 BTU for coal and natural gas-fired plants, respectively, and
6 percent transmission losses. Solar and wind data are for utility-scale and onshore installations,
respectively.
Let’s assume the electric vehicle gets 3.5 miles per kWh. This is 240 miles of range divided by
60kWh, subtracting half a mile as a conservative factor to take account of sub-optimal driving
conditions and possible degradation of the battery over time. Use China’s coal-heavy power mix
and you get emissions of just over half a pound per mile.
Now, assume both vehicles get driven 10,500 miles per yearand last 12 years. Here’s how much
carbon they emit overall:

Overtaken
The lower emissions from the electric vehicle's energy source eventually makes up for the bigger
carbon footprint of its battery -- even with a lot of coal in the mix
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Argonne
National Laboratory, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Energy Information Administration,
So it takes about seven years to offset the emissions from making the battery, even with all that
coal factored in. Granted, an 11 percent drop in cumulative emissions still may not seem worth the
effort; a couple of alterations to the assumptions and you might end up with no savings at all.
But this brings us to the real story here: choice.
The vehicle with the internal combustion engine can be tweaked in terms of miles-per-gallon. But
chemistry dictates that burning gasoline will always, more or less, send 20 pounds of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere. It’s a closed system.
The battery vehicle, in contrast, is an open platform. Its menu of energy options can change
dramatically according to the types of generation in your region, whether you’re using centralized
or distributed power sources, and even the time of day you charge up. Critically, all those
inputs can, and will, change over time.
To see how this affects things, the chart below shows my estimate of life-cycle emissions for the
two vehicles described above, but also for Chinese vehicles using the International Energy
Agency's projected mix of power there in 2030. For this, I've also boosted the efficiency of the
vehicles by almost 30 percent, so the one using gasoline gets about 45 miles per gallon, while the
electric vehicle gets about 4.5 miles per kWh. I've done the same for U.S. vehicles traveling
13,000 miles per year, and starting at 31 miles per gallon for the gasoline vehicle now, using the
country's current and projected power mix:

The Power To Change
Projected changes in the mix of power sources imply dramatic reductions in life-cycle emissions
for the electric vehicle versus what's on the road today
There are valid arguments against electric vehicles, be it their high cost or concerns around
charging infrastructure, range anxiety or whatever. Yet it should also be acknowledged that all
those concerns have diminished in importance over time and may well continue to do so.
Certainly, much of the incumbent auto industry – not to mention some petro-states -- seems to be
thinking that way.
When it comes to carbon emissions, though, the argument that electric vehicles are as bad or
worse than those burning gasoline is already hard to square with today's numbers -- and that will
get harder over time. It ignores the inherent potential for change and choice that an electric drive-
train opens up versus burning gasoline. Oil bulls dismissing this should take
note that governments look ever less likely to do the same.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of NewBase and its owners.

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 27 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase September 2017 K. Al Awadi

We occasionally send a commercial message on behalf of a sponsor. We hope you find
today’s message relevant and useful.
Global high-pressure hydraulics leader Enerpac is introducing to Australasia new on-site safety
training designed to optimise the uptime and performance of widely used tools while
spotlighting workplace hazards and preventable accidents.
Enerpac’s Goal Zero Safety Programmes draw on the organisation’s practical workplace
experience in more than 30 countries and its commitment to promote the goal of zero harm to
employees, customers and end users of Enerpac and other-brand heavy lift, shift, position,
fabrication and bolting machinery used across Australia, New Zealand and PNG.
Elements of the on-site courses are tailored to the needs of individual sites and workshops, and include:
• Tool inspections and correct workplace usage guidance
• Maintenance and storage practices that optimise safety and uptime
• Spotlighting potentially dangerous practices, with case studies
• Extending tool life and productivity
• Safety guidelines for general situations and for particular industries
• Attendance certificates
As a hydraulic technology and safety leader in Australasia for more than 50 years, Enerpac is now taking a
further lead in the industry by taking its unique expertise out on site where it will do the most good for busy
people and companies.

These are practical, down-to-earth safety training development courses designed to deliver
immediate benefits from course leaders who combine local expertise with global knowledge
and standards. The key outcomes on which they focus are reduced accidents and downtime.
The courses are open to groups including tool users; supervisors; inspectors; safety
managers; project and site engineers; maintenance shutdown engineers; administration and
management staff concerned with risk assessment and management; training and
development managers.

New base 19 september 2017 energy news issue 1073 by khaled al awadi

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to New base 19 september 2017 energy news issue 1073 by khaled al awadi

Similar to New base 19 september 2017 energy news issue 1073 by khaled al awadi (20)

More from Khaled Al Awadi

More from Khaled Al Awadi (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

New base 19 september 2017 energy news issue 1073 by khaled al awadi