League of Women Voters October 2012 final

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  • There is a tradeoff between long run and short run. The degree to which there is a tradeoff and what is exactly traded off is a matter of some contention.
  • There is a tradeoff between long run and short run. The degree to which there is a tradeoff and what is exactly traded off is a matter of some contention.
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/border0/5574007369/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  • There is a tradeoff between long run and short run. The degree to which there is a tradeoff and what is exactly traded off is a matter of some contention.
  • http://www.voxeu.org/article/us-economic-growth-over
  • http://www.voxeu.org/article/us-economic-growth-over
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bakatanuki/5457488729/sizes/l/A thought experiment. Private Trash collection versus public trash collection.
  • There is a tradeoff between long run and short run. The degree to which there is a tradeoff and what is exactly traded off is a matter of some contention.
  • There is a tradeoff between long run and short run. The degree to which there is a tradeoff and what is exactly traded off is a matter of some contention.
  • There is a tradeoff between long run and short run. The degree to which there is a tradeoff and what is exactly traded off is a matter of some contention.
  • Programs are AFDC/TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families), CTC (child tax credit), DI (disability insurance), EITC (earned income tax credit), Food Stamps, Foster Family, General Assistance, Housing Assistance, Medicaid, Medicare, Other Welfare, Social Security, SSI (Supplemental Security Income), UI (unemployment insurance), Veterans Benefits, WC (workers compensation), and WIC (The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children).Social SecurityMedicareSSIUIRailroad Employees AFDCChild CareTitle XX Social Services Block GrantChild ProtectionSocial Welfare in the TerritoriesPension Benefit Guaranty Corp.Food StampsMedicaidS-CHIPHousing AssistanceSchool Lunch and BreakfastsWIC for familiesChild and Adult Care Workforce Investment ActHead StartLI-HEAP
  • Programs are AFDC/TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families), CTC (child tax credit), DI (disability insurance), EITC (earned income tax credit), Food Stamps, Foster Family, General Assistance, Housing Assistance, Medicaid, Medicare, Other Welfare, Social Security, SSI (Supplemental Security Income), UI (unemployment insurance), Veterans Benefits, WC (workers compensation), and WIC (The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children).Social SecurityMedicareSSIUIRailroad Employees AFDCChild CareTitle XX Social Services Block GrantChild ProtectionSocial Welfare in the TerritoriesPension Benefit Guaranty Corp.Food StampsMedicaidS-CHIPHousing AssistanceSchool Lunch and BreakfastsWIC for familiesChild and Adult Care Workforce Investment ActHead StartLI-HEAP
  • Rising Life expectancy has meant transfers to all have increased but there effectiveness for poverty reduction has not worked.
  • CBO projections
  • http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/15/business/fewer-government-resources.html
  • Lane Kenworthy
  • League of Women Voters October 2012 final

    1. 1. Budgets: Austerity vs. InvestmentTaggert J. Brooks, PhDChair and Associate Professor of EconomicsUniversity of Wisconsin-La Crosse
    2. 2. Long run versus Short run
    3. 3. Short run
    4. 4. Postwar Recessions (1946-2008): Cumulative8 Decline from NBER Peak (pct) 199064 200120-2 2007-4-6-8 1 13 25 37 49 61
    5. 5. 2% Change in GDP since Q1 2008 US Germany0% France-2%-4% Spain-6% Italy-8% 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1
    6. 6. The Fiscal Cliff
    7. 7. Long run
    8. 8. Growth in Real GDP/capita, 1300-2100
    9. 9. Government Spending Defense Infrastructure Education Transfers Health Other?
    10. 10. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30Medicare and Medicaid Defense Socail Security Safety Net Benefits for Vets Interest Infrastructure Education Research International Other Federal Spending as % of Budget
    11. 11. Future versus Present
    12. 12. Present
    13. 13. Actual Budget Balance with 5 Year OMB Forecasts 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
    14. 14. Budget Balance as Percentage of GDP10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0 Year Democrats-30.0-35.0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
    15. 15. 0 50 100 150 200 Japan Greece Italy Belgium PortugalUnited Kingdom Iceland Hungary France Austria United States Ireland Netherlands Spain Poland Germany Turkey Finland DenmarkSlovak RepublicCzech Republic Canada Sweden Korea New Zealand Mexico Norway Switzerland Luxembourg Australia 2010 Debt to GDP Ratio
    16. 16. Top Marginal Tax Rate100 Democrats Republican75 s5025 0 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
    17. 17. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Denmark Sweden Belgium France Finland Norway SpainUnited Kingdom Israel Germany Canada Poland Greece Switzerland Japan United States Turkey Korea Chile Mexico OECD Ave Taxes as Percent of GDP 2005
    18. 18. Future
    19. 19. Means-Tested Transfers AFDC/TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) CTC (child tax credit) EITC (earned income tax credit) Medicaid SSI (Supplemental Security Income), WIC (The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children) Food Stamps, General Assistance, Housing Assistance, Free and Reduced Lunches
    20. 20. Social Insurance Transfers SSDI (disability insurance), Medicare, Social Security Retirement, UI (unemployment insurance), Veterans Benefits, WC (workers compensation)
    21. 21. Transfers to All Medicare Social Security Retirement
    22. 22. Percent of GDP30 Ryan’s Cap Federal Spending2010 Medicare and Medicaid Spending Only 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
    23. 23. Spending as a % of GDP50 Total Fed40 Government Spending30 Ryan’s Cap2010 Medicare and Medicaid0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
    24. 24. Top 1% of Income Earners Louis D. Brandeis Share of Total Income – U.S.20.0 “We may have democracy, or we15.0 may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we10.0 cannot have both.” 5.0 - 1913 1937 1961 1985 2009
    25. 25. Louis D. Brandeis“We may have democracy, or wemay have wealth concentrated inthe hands of a few, but wecannot have both.”
    26. 26. Thanks. Questions?Taggert J. Brooks, PhDAssociate Professor of EconomicsUniversity of Wisconsin-La Crosse

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