Michael Grubb (WG III Coordinating Lead Author, Chapter 1)

1. Delivering a Sustainable Future – GHG emissions and mitigation
Distributional dimensions
and
What have policies already delivered?
Michael Grubb
Convening Lead author, WGIII Chapter 1
10th November 2022
IPCC.CH

2. “
Variations in regional,
and national per capita
emissions partly
reflect different
development stages,
but they also vary
widely at similar
income levels...
[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]
Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

3. Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• Sectoral complexity – electricity
attribution, LULUCF data, Urban
systems, and more … see SPM
sectoral sections, Figure TS.6
• To describe contributions by
sector is complex,* by region
inevitably involves choices
Regional emissions:
• % or absolute contributions
• Growth by region?
• Trends & contributions since …
when?
IPCC AR6 Mitigation Report, Figure SPM.2a

4. Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Figure SPM.2b, c. + With table of specific indices, including intensity, and consumption-based accounting data

5. “
Policies have enhanced
energy efficiency,
reduced rates of
deforestation and
accelerated technology
deployment, leading to
avoided and in some
cases reduced or
removed emissions
[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]
Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

6. Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Unit costs of several
low-emission
technologies have
fallen continuously
since 2010.. [due to]
both tailored policies
and comprehensive
policies.. Innovation
has lagged in
developing countries
due to weaker
enabling conditions.
Also see Technical Summary,
Box TS.13 and Chapters 2 and 6
“The literature indicates unambiguously that the
rapid expansion of low-carbon energy technologies
is substantially attributable to policy. {6.7.5, 16.5}”

7. Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Table 2.3: Global study 2015-18 trends: over 90% of countries had decoupled emissions growth from GDP growth
The Kyoto Protocol led to reduced emissions in some countries
and was instrumental in building national and international
capacity for GHG reporting, accounting and emissions markets
Paris Agreement, with near universal participation, led to policy
development and target-setting at national and sub-national
levels, particularly re mitigation, & enhanced transparency ..
“At least 18 countries
sustained [GHG] emission
reductions for > 10 years,
linked to energy supply
decarbonisation, energy
efficiency gains, & energy
demand reduction ..
some by a third or more”
The Kyoto Protocol led to reduced emissions in some countries
and was instrumental in building national and international
capacity for GHG reporting, accounting and emissions markets

8. Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Box TS.13 Figure 1: Policy
outcomes on key indices
“Multiple lines of
evidence suggest
that mitigation
policies have led to
avoided global
emissions of several
GtCO2-eq yr–1 ..”
[Indicative range, 1.8 – 5.9
GtCO2-eq/yr by 2016]

9. @IPCC_CH
#IPCReport
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Thankyou.
IPCC AR6 Mitigation Chapter 1
Convening Lead Author
Michael Grubb