The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
After the storm comes the calm - Fixed Income Outlook
1. After the Storm, Comes the Calm!
Fixed Income Outlook in the midst of the
Covid-19 Pandemic
Fixed Income Markets have felt the brunt of the Covid-19 storm with
hardening of yields and widening of spreads across the corporate bond space
Risk Aversion and flight towards liquidity has led to a spike in yields by close to 100 -150 bps across the
corporate bond space. The yields have risen more sharply in the short term space as compared to the
medium and long duration space.
Data Source: CRISIL, Latest data as on 20/03/2020, 1 month ago data as on 20/02/2020; CP – Commercial Paper; CD – Certificate of Deposit; AAA, AA and A+
ratings – are for corporate bonds
Due to the spike in yields as highlighted above, the Corporate Bonds are currently available at attractive
yields and offer better spreads over the repo as compared to government securities
Data Source: CRISIL, Data as on 20/03/2020
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr
Repo Gsec AAA AA A
Avg
45 bps
Avg
222 bps
Avg
279 bps
Avg
335 bps
Avg. Spike in Money Market securities & Corporate Bond yields over a month : 130 bps
0
50
100
150
200
250
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1M
CP
3M
CP
6M
CP
1Y
CP
1M
CD
3M
CD
6M
CD
1Y
CD
1Y
AAA
3Y
AAA
5Y
AAA
1Y
AA
3Y
AA
5Y
AA
1Y
A+
3Y
A+
5Y
A+
BasisPoints(bps)
Rates(%)
Spike in Yields (bps) (RHS) Latest 1 Month Ago
2. 7
8
9
10
11
12
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Yields spiked during GFC in 2008
G-Sec (Post the Event) G-Sec (6M before the event)
CB (Post the Event) CB (6M before the event)
7
8
9
10
11
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Yields spiked during Taper Tantrum in 2013
G-Sec (Post the Event) G-Sec (6M before the event)
CB (Post the event) CB (6M before the event)
After the Storm, Comes the Calm!
Fixed Income Outlook in the midst of the
Covid-19 Pandemic
However, we believe Investors could soon experience the calm as
yields normalise from their current unsustainable levels
Have we seen a calm after a Storm?
Instances from the Past
The Storm: Yields had spiked during the uncertainties and panic in bond markets during the Global
Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 and Taper Tantrums in 2013
The Calm: Favorable Returns in 6 Months post the crisis across fixed income categories
6 Months Returns post the crisis in 2008 & 2013 (% p.a.)
Category
Post the Taper
Tantrums
Post the Global
Financial Crisis
Category
Post the Taper
Tantrums
Post the Global
Financial Crisis
Money Market 9.81 9.41 Banking & PSU 11.12 7.99
Ultra Short Duration 10.41 9.49 Medium Duration 11.06 13.79
Short Duration 11.39 14.34 Credit Risk 11.87 8.11
Corporate Bond 10.51 16.78
10 yr Government
Bond
14.20 14.35
As highlighted above, In both the instances of bond market volatility in 2008 &
2013, investors have subsequently witnessed positive returns for categories
across the fixed income space
Data Source: Crisil; 6 Months Back Data as on 17/02/2013; After Taper tantrum effect data as on 19/08/2013; CB
– Corporate Bond; G-Sec- Government Security
Data Source: Crisil; 6 Months Back Data as on 14/01/2008; After Taper tantrum effect data as on 15/07/2008; CB
– Corporate Bond; G-Sec- Government Security
The aforementioned information is indicative in nature and past performance may or may not sustain in the future.
Data Source: Morning Star; Returns are for the period 18/08/2013 to 17/02/2014 for Taper Tantrums and from 14/07/2008 to 13/01/2009 for Global Financial Crisis. Returns are annualized.
3. Just as seen in 2008
& 2013, the current
volatility provides an
attractive opportunity
to invest
After the Storm, Comes the Calm!
Fixed Income Outlook in the midst of the
Covid-19 Pandemic
The Way Forward for Fixed Income Markets
• Central Banks around the globe are adopting a “Whatever it takes” approach to provide the required boost to
the economy in this period of crisis and RBI is expected to follow suit.
• Positive macro economic indicators, Spread of India’s interest rates above global interest rates and lower
inflation expectations provide the RBI and government a large headroom for giving monetary and fiscal
stimuli.
• Some of the Expected measures from the RBI and Government are as follows:
Liquidity through
Quantitative Easing
Relax credit stipulation
Eg: Relaxation of NPA norms
Fiscal Stimulus from the
Government
Our View
Invest before the RBI &
Govt. Stimulus
Accrual schemes
most attractive
Buy Call on Debt as entire
yield curve looks attractive
Current debt markets -
Volatile But Attractive
Investors should invest
before the expected
supportive action is
taken to get maximum
benefit from the
normalization of yields.
Investors with a higher risk
appetite should consider
investing in accrual funds
as the spread over repo in
accrual space* is the
highest and is very
attractive at this point
We give a strong buy call
on debt markets and
recommend investing in
schemes in the Low
Duration, Ultra Short, Short
Duration and Medium
Duration
*(Corporate Bonds with rating below AAA)
4. After the Storm, Comes the Calm!
Fixed Income Outlook in the midst of the
Covid-19 Pandemic
Our Recommendation
Riskometers
Scheme Name YTM
Average Maturity
in Years
Modified Duration
in Years
Macaulay Duration
in Years
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 7.92% 1.23 0.98 1.07
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short term Fund 9.05% 0.54 0.43 0.48
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 8.31% 3.40 2.47 2.64
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 7.91% 2.92 2.10 2.24
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 8.08% 4.14 2.68 2.89
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 10.49% 2.29 1.80 1.95
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 9.36% 4.02 2.83 3.06
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 8.65% 6.83 4.33 4.56
Data as on March 20, 2020
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund (An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such
that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years) is suitable for investors who
are seeking*:
• Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution
• A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market
instruments of various maturities
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below
rated corporate bonds) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Medium term savings
A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below
rated corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund (An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in
instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The
Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation) is suitable for
investors who are seeking*:
Medium term savings
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize
income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration)
is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
All duration savings
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize
income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
5. After the Storm, Comes the Calm!
Fixed Income Outlook in the midst of the
Covid-19 Pandemic
Riskometers
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
In preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available,
including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its
affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from
reliable sources. The AMC, however, does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions /
recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions
that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated
with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which
have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. The AMC (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, the trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and
employees, shall not be liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of
profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. All
figures and other data given in this document are dated and the same may or may not be relevant in future. The information contained herein should not be construed as a
forecast or promise nor should it be considered as an investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible
tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. The debt securities mentioned in this communication do
not constitute any recommendation of the same and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these debt securities. Past performance may
or may not be sustained in the future. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the scheme. Please
refer to the SID for investment pattern, strategy and risk factors.
The information contained herein is only for the purpose of information and not for distribution and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of any offer to buy
or sell any securities or financial instruments in the United States of America ("US") and/or Canada or for the benefit of US persons (being persons falling within the
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Disclaimer
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund(An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments
such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months) is suitable for investors
who are seeking*:
Short term regular income
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund (An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that
the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months) is suitable for investors who are
seeking*
Short term savings
An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money
market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt
instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds.) is
suitable for investors who are seeking*
Short term savings
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector
Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and
above rated corporate bonds.) is suitable for investors who are seeking*
Short term savings
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them . Note: The Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash
flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price.