2. Many times in the past I have written about the cooperation between Cyprus
and Israel in the energy and defense sector. Israel and Cyprus have adjacent
gas fields, and the American energy company Noble Energy is developing
the gas fields of both countries, which makes their exploitation a lot cheaper
and leaves a lot more room for profit. Moreover Israel and Cyprus have a
defense pact against Turkey.
Map 1 Israeli, Cypriot and Egyptian Gas Fields
3. Israel and Cyprus are hoping to construct common pipeline networks, which
will transfer their gas to one of the 3 players who can absorb large quantities
of gas i.e. Egypt, Turkey or the European Union. Israel and Cyprus are small
countries, while Egypt and Turkey both have a population of 80 million
people, and the European Union has a population of 500 million people.
Moreover the two countries have discussed the possibility of constructing an
LNG plant in Cyprus, in order to export their gas in liquid form.
Map 2
Before moving on with the Cypriot-Israeli interests, I must say once more
that there is a huge Turkish-Russian conflict running at the background, with
Russia supplying Turkey with 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and
Turkey desperately trying to find alternative sources of gas, in order to
reduce her dependency on Russia. As you can read at the following Al
4. Monitor article, the main gas contracts between Turkey and Russia are
expiring in 2020. See Al Monitor
“How the PKK is Entering Energy Wars”, March 2016
5th
Paragraph
That timing would be perfect, as some of Turkey’s major gas contracts with Russia
expire in 2020, including the Blue Stream deal for 16 billion cubic meters, and half of the
western route contracts that cover 4 billion cubic meters. In short, if everything goes as
planned, Ankara hopes to get rid of Putin’s noose in several years.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/turkey-israel-pkk-
shadow-player-energy-wars.html
Gazprom’s site says that the contract for the Blue Stream Pipeline, which
carries 16 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Turkey each year through
the Black Sea, expires in 2022. See Gazprom.
Blue Stream
History
On December 15, 1997 Russia and Turkey signed an intergovernmental agreement.
Under the agreement Gazprom and Turkish Botas inked the contract stipulating that 365
billion cubic meters of gas should be supplied to Turkey via Blue Stream during 25 years.
http://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/pipelines/blue-stream/
What is important is not whether the contracts are expiring in 2020, 2021 or
2022. What is important is the race between Turkey and Russia, with Turkey
trying to find new sources of gas, and Russia trying to block her, either by
using Armenia and Iran to threat Azerbaijan, or by using the Kurds of
Turkey (PKK) to block the Iraq-Turkey and the Iran-Turkey pipelines, or by
5. using the Alawites and Kurds of Syria to block the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, or
by using Hezbollah to threat Israel. Note that Turkey could use the Azeri,
Iranian, Iraqi, Qatar and Israeli gas, not only to substitute the Russian gas
that reaches Turkey through the Black Sea (Blue Stream) and Ukraine
(Trans-Balkan), but also to export gas to Europe. And we all know how
addicted Russia is on her exports to Europe.
Map 3
Map 4
6. You might think that Russia is acting like a pimp, and you would be right.
But Russia is not an exception. The same is true for Turkey and Qatar, that
support ISIS, but also for Iran, which many times in the past has supported
Al-Qaeda. Therefore it is ridiculous for the Turks and the Iranians to talk
about ethics.
But let me go back to Israel and Cyprus. The construction of common
pipelines, and the export of gas, is a common objective for both the Cypriots
and the Israelis. But Cyprus and Israel face a huge difference in their foreign
policy. Turkey is the main geopolitical threat for Cyprus, while Iran is the
greatest threat for Israel. Therefore it is very difficult for the two countries to
completely synchronize their foreign policies.
7. There are discussions between Cyprus and Turkey, in order for the two
countries to solve the decade long disputes over North Cyprus, which is
under Turkish occupation since 1974. Cyprus has a motive to strike a deal
with Turkey before the Turkish-Russian conflict is resolved, because the
more Turkey needs Cyprus, and the more desperate Turkey is for alternative
sources of gas, the more she will be willing to offer Cyprus, in order for
Cyprus to accept an Israel-Cyprus-Turkey pipeline. Because Syria and
Lebanon do not recognize Israel, and there is no way they will accept such a
pipeline.
However things are quite different for the Israelis. The Israelis do not want
to go ahead with an Israeli-Turkish pipeline while there is so much tension
between Russia and Turkey. The main threat Israelis face is Hezbollah in
South Lebanon, and Hezbollah is supported by Iran. But Hezbollah would
also be supported by Russia if the Israelis were to sell gas to the Turks. The
Israelis have given Gazprom stakes in their second largest gas field, the
Tamar, and they also hope to give Gazprom stakes in their largest gas field,
the Leviathan, in order to jointly export gas, whether that is to Egypt, Turkey
or the European Union. That way the Russians will be happy with the
Israelis, and in return for their help they will not interfere in their fight with
Hezbollah and Iran.
Therefore speed is good for the Cypriots when it comes to their discussions
with Turkey, but it does not help the Israelis. The recent ruling of the highest
Israeli court, which rejected the agreement between Israel and the American
Noble Energy for Leviathan gas field, seems to be very convenient for the
Israelis, even though Netanyahu was supposedly disappointed with it. Noble
8. Energy would have the Leviathan gas ready by 2019, but the court ruling
will delay the project by at least one year. For the Israeli court ruling see
World Tribune. I do not have proofs that the Israeli court makes life hard for
Noble Energy in order to ensure Russian support for Israel, but that’s what it
does.
“Israel Court ruling seen as threat to U.S. energy firm”, March 2016
2nd
Paragraph
The ruling was a major setback for U.S.-based Noble Energy, which could delay the
firm’s $6 billion natural gas project off the coast of Israel for as much as a year. The
project was expected to start up in 2019.
http://www.worldtribune.com/israel-court-ruling-seen-as-threat-to-u-s-
energy-firm/
See also “Israel, Russia and the Leviathan Gas Field”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/03/28/israel-russia-and-the-leviathan-gas-
field/
There is Egypt too of course. The largest gas field of the Eastern
Mediterranean Sea was discovered in Egypt in August 2015 i.e. the Zohr
fied. Turkey and Egypt are currently at war, but the Zohr field might make
the difference, if the two countries agree that Egypt exports gas to Turkey.
The Turks have already said that they would be willing to consider
normalizing their relations with Egypt, if Egypt accepted to relax her stance
towards the Egyptian Islamists. See the friendly to the Turkish government
Daily Sabah.
9. “Normalization of relations between Turkey, Egypt possible if conditions
fulfilled”, December 2015
3rd
Paragraph
Erdoğan gave a statement to the media in April while returning from a visit to Tehran
and listed four conditions that need to be met before Turkey would be willing to
normalize ties with Egypt. The first is the immediate release of Morsi, followed by an
annulment of all capital sentences given to supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which
have been handed out to thousands of political opponents of the coup regime and now
face execution in Egypt. Third, Erdoğan said Egypt needed to release all political
prisoners, nearly 18,000 people. Lastly, all bans on political parties must be lifted so that
a normal democratic process may flourish.
http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2015/12/19/experts-normalization-
of-relations-between-turkey-egypt-possible-if-conditions-fulfilled
For the Egyptians and the Cypriots the main enemy is Turkey, while for the
Israelis and the Saudis the main enemy is Iran. Therefore in this energy
game with Turkey, the Israelis, the Cypriots and the Egyptians perceive the
time factor in a very different way.
I must also say that the Egyptians hope to have the Zohr gas flowing by
2017, as you can read at Reuters.
“Egypt's giant Zohr gas field aims to start output in 2017”, November 2015
http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-investment-egypt-gas-
idUSL3N12X4DX20151102
10. “Normalization of relations between Turkey, Egypt possible if conditions
fulfilled”, December 2015
3rd
Paragraph
Erdoğan gave a statement to the media in April while returning from a visit to Tehran
and listed four conditions that need to be met before Turkey would be willing to
normalize ties with Egypt. The first is the immediate release of Morsi, followed by an
annulment of all capital sentences given to supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which
have been handed out to thousands of political opponents of the coup regime and now
face execution in Egypt. Third, Erdoğan said Egypt needed to release all political
prisoners, nearly 18,000 people. Lastly, all bans on political parties must be lifted so that
a normal democratic process may flourish.
http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2015/12/19/experts-normalization-
of-relations-between-turkey-egypt-possible-if-conditions-fulfilled
For the Egyptians and the Cypriots the main enemy is Turkey, while for the
Israelis and the Saudis the main enemy is Iran. Therefore in this energy
game with Turkey, the Israelis, the Cypriots and the Egyptians perceive the
time factor in a very different way.
I must also say that the Egyptians hope to have the Zohr gas flowing by
2017, as you can read at Reuters.
“Egypt's giant Zohr gas field aims to start output in 2017”, November 2015
http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-investment-egypt-gas-
idUSL3N12X4DX20151102
