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Inevitable

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The nature of technology is that most of it's forces are inevitable. We can't stop technology, but we can influence it, we can change it.

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Inevitable

  1. 1. INEVITABLETHE NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY IS THAT MOST OF ITS FORCES ARE INEVTABLE.WE CAN SHAPE TECHNOLOGY - BUT WE CAN’T STOP IT. Thrusday 22nd February 2018
  2. 2. a“If we think about the dependency we have on this other technology, called the alphabet, and writing, we are totally dependent, it has transformed culture. We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing.” - Kevin Kelly
  3. 3. “A REVOLUTION DOESN’T HAPPEN WHEN SOCIETYADOPTS NEWTOOLS IT HAPPENS WHEN SOCIETYADOPTS NEW BEHAVIORS.” THE FUTURE IS ONLY COMPLEX IF WE FAIL TO SEE IT FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE CHANGE. - CLAY SHIRKY, US NOW HYPOTHESIS:
  4. 4. .growing complexity PART 1 PART1A:GrowingComplexity Image by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on flickr.com
  5. 5. MERCANTILE CAPITALISM Venetian merchants and Dutch traders PROPRIETARY CAPITALISM Factory and workshops of the British Empire MANAGERIAL CAPITALISM American modelled mass consumption DISTRIBUTED CAPITALISM Apple, Alphebeth, Facebook, Amazon 2000 -190018001600-1700 THE CHANGING «the specific kinds of business models and practices that create wealth in any given era» CONTENT OF CAPITALISM CONTENT = - Shoshana Zuboff -
  6. 6. Every century or so, fundamental changes in the nature of consumption create new demand patterns that existing enterprises can’t meet. - Shoshana Zuboff -
  7. 7. «PEOPLE HAVE CHANGED MORE THAN THE BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS THEY MUST DEPEND UPON FOR CONSUMPTION AND FOR EMPLOYMENT»- Shoshana Zuboff
  8. 8. EARLY CONSUMERS PROPRIETARY CAPITALISM MASS CONSUMERS MANAGERIAL CAPITALISM NEW SOCIETY OF INDIVIDUALS DISTRIBUTED CAPITALISM ZONE OF INNOVATION 1890 2005 1915 2020 2050 ZONE OF INNOVATION MIGRATION PATH MIGRATION PATH ZONE OF MUTATION ZONE OF MUTATION ELECTRICITY INTERNET MOBILE BIG DATA IOT CLOUD + + COMBUSTION ENGINE Zero marginal cost Photo by adrian on Unsplash - SHOSHANA ZUBOFF - THE PREMIUM PUZZLE
  9. 9. IDENTITY“They built a boat to put my life on, then they gave me a crew and made me the captain and told me i could sail wherever i want.” Photo by Siddharth Bhogra on Unsplash - Shoshana Zuboff #1
  10. 10. http://www.180360720.no/?p=5227 We are living in the age of mass individualization. No two people get the same Google search result, see the same products on amazon.com, have the same Facebook feed or iTunes catalogue. Every smartphone is unique two minutes after its first boot.  We are living in an age where the new mega industries have all become personal services industries and the old incumbents are still struggling to put out a mass product at almost no margin or cost (e.g. digital news media, insurance, banks, bikes, cars, tooth picks etc.). INDIVIDUALIZATION#2
  11. 11. mass standardization identity individualization from: to: «the specific kinds of business models and practices that create wealth in any given era» - Shoshana Zuboff CHAPTERS OF CAPITALISM increases the willingness to pay a premium unleashes new markets and wealth
  12. 12. discuss: Is there a premium puzzle in our industry? What is it? In pairs of two for three minutes:
  13. 13. PEOPLE ORGANIZE IN MULTIPLE IMMEDIATE, DECENTRALIZED NETWORKS. Lasting from seconds to months or years. These networks are distributed, they don’t have a plan and only react when input hits them. #3 “They are by their very nature unpredictable. They react to input variables as opposed to a predictable system, … a distributed network doesn’t know what it’s going to do until input hits it. And when you [the company] are the input variable…” - Chris Fussell, McChrystal Group
  14. 14. #4 MUTATION IS THE CONVERGENCE OF INDUSTRIES INDUSTRY IS NOTHING MORE THAN A MENTAL CONCEPT SUFFOCATING THE IMAGINATION OF ORGANIZATIONS
  15. 15. «TO GET THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME FROM WHAT WE PUT IN» Farmers get up every morning because they have a job to solve:
  16. 16. EARLY CONSUMERS PROPRIETARY CAPITALISM MASS CONSUMERS MANAGERIAL CAPITALISM NEW SOCIETY OF INDIVIDUALS DISTRIBUTED CAPITALISM ZONE OF INNOVATION 1890 2005 1915 2020 2050 ZONE OF INNOVATION MIGRATION PATH MIGRATION PATH ZONE OF MUTATION ZONE OF MUTATION ELECTRICITY INTERNET MOBILE BIG DATA IOT CLOUD + + COMBUSTION ENGINE Zero marginal cost - SHOSHANA ZUBOFF - Historically, mutations have superseded innovations when fundamental shifts in what people want require a new approach to enterprise: new purposes, new methods, new outcomes. INNOVATIONS IMPROVE THE FRAMEWORK IN WHICH ENTERPRISES PRODUCE AND DELIVER GOODS AND SERVICES. MUTATIONS CREATE NEW FRAMEWORKS; THEY ARE NOT SIMPLY NEW TECHNOLOGIES, THOUGH THEY DO LEVERAGE TECHNOLOGIES TO DO NEW THINGS. A MUTATION IN CAPITALISM ITSELF
  17. 17. discuss: Is the industry challenged by innovation or mutation? In pairs of two for three minutes:
  18. 18. ARE WE PREPARED FOR THIS?
  19. 19. «CUSTOMERS ARE DEVELOPING NEW DEMAND PATTERNS OUR CURRENT BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS CAN’T MEET»- Shoshana Zuboff 15/365 - 2017 VALUE What customers find valuable to pay for is changing. We are moving away from being able to charge a premium for access and simplicity. Now the premium is for identity. And individualization of services is opening massive new markets. NETWORKS People organize in multiple immediate networks, lasting from seconds to months or years. These networks are distributed, they don’t have a plan and only react when input hits them. Companies provide input variables. MUTATION Technology is changing consumer behavior due to a mutation of processes 
 (e.g. SMS and payments 
 become the same process)
  20. 20. FREEDOM OF CHOICE: THE FUTURE IS ONLY COMPLICATED IF YOU FAILTO SEE IT FROM WHAT IS DRIVING THE CHANGE CHOICE:NO REAL CHOICE: CHOICE:NO REAL CHOICE: THE PRODUCT IS JUSTATEMPORARY OUTPUT THERE IS NO SUSTAINABLE ADVANTAGE STUCK ON THEIR CORE BUSINESS MODELS WHEN THE CORE TECHNOLOGY BECOMES STRETCHABLE - GARY HAMEL - - RITA MCGRATH - - CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN -
  21. 21. Competition will be asynchronous - your worst competition is not necessarily another pharma company MUTATION:
  22. 22. “Let me give you an example of how expensive that can be. A decade ago four of the most powerful technology companies in the world were Intel, Dell, HP and Microsoft. And yet all four of them completely missed the single biggest shift in the generation in their industry. And that was the shift to wireless. The mobile opportunity was not an existential threat to their core business.” - Gary Hamel CORE TECHNOLOGY & BUSINESS MODEL
  23. 23. COMPANIES DON’T DIE THEY SUFFOCATE
  24. 24. WHEN AN INDUSTRY BREAKS WE REALIZE THAT CUSTOMERS’ OPPORTUNITIES ARE NOT BOUNDED TO INDUSTRY OR LIMITED TO PROCESS — BUT ENDLESS. - HELGE TENNØ
  25. 25. What happens when DATAbecomes as valuable to some customers as medication? What happens when ENGINEERINGbecomes as valuable to pharma as science? TWO QUESTIONS?
  26. 26. THE FUTURE IS ONLY COMPLEX IF WE FAIL TO SEE IT FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE CHANGE. PART 2
  27. 27. Fuel + Hardware & OSGovernance, Management,Teams,Talent, Coordination, Strategy, Decisions etc.Data, Experience, Information, Insight
  28. 28. OUR IMAGINATION IS LIMITED BY THE TOOLS WE USE TO UNDERSTAND THE WORLD PREMISE:
  29. 29. WE ARE USING OLD MODELS TO COLLECT NEW DATA ABOUTTHE WORLD - BUT BECAUSE WE ARE USING OLD MODELS AND METHODS WE ARE ONLY PICKING OUR DATA FROM THE SAME POOLS OF EXPERIENCE AND INFORMATION - SERVING US THE SAME PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORLD AS WE ARE USED TO SEEING
  30. 30. "In the old model things didn't change very fast, it was predictable and so you built for predictability. It was like saying; 'go find this object in a well lit room’." - Aaron Dignan - A Well Lit Room It used to be…
  31. 31. Dark Room or - Quote by Aaron Dignan - A Well Lit Room Are we in a
  32. 32. Companies are designed to out! customers keep VIA CHUCK COKER ON FLICKR.COM
  33. 33. COMPANIES CARE ABOUT EFFICIENCY& STANDARDIZATION
  34. 34. «Companies get fixed on measuring their solution, not the job they’re being hired to help solve..» - Des Traynor, CEO Intercom - - https://blog.intercom.com/your-product-is-already-obsolete/
  35. 35. .OUTCOME .EFFICIENCY .RATIO - Clayton Christensen - PHOTO BY DANIEL LEONE ON UNSPLASH COMPANIES SHYAWAY FROM CUSTOMER DATA BECAUSE IT’S TOO COMPLEX - ORGANIZATIONS ARE EFFICIENCY MACHINES MEANING IF IT’S NOT MEASURABLE AND IT DOESN’T FIT INTO AN EXCEL SPREADSHEET CELLWE ARE NOT GOING TO USE IT
  36. 36. «Companies end up using their data to fit customers to their product, not the other way around» - Helge Tennø - Unintentional consequence: 12/365 - 2017 26/365 - 2017 ILLUSTRATION BY PAT HAYES ON FLICKR.COM
  37. 37. A TAXleadership has to pay in order to argue they were doing the right thing old, slow, static formats, not distributed, not in a system of action, promotes einstellung, avoids outliers, creative opinions and is infested with the Hawthorne effect. Our imagination is taken hostage by our old code The current insight industry is designed to fit customers to company’s problems to prove that what you are already doing is the right thing SOURCE: HTTPS://OPENCLIPART.ORG/ Customer insights has become
  38. 38. New technology invites companies to find new processes creating new behaviors for people Slow moving societal change like the increase in higher education, standards of living, social complexity and longevity etc. changes people’s mind in regard to what they find valuable Not who the are but what they are doing, and why How we need to understand our customers CUSTOMER GOALPROCESS BEHAVIOR TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS STRUGGLE
  39. 39. PROGRESS STRUGGLE QUESTION What is the future of your industry? CUSTOMER GOALPROCESS BEHAVIOR TECHNOLOGY
  40. 40. IOT + External Data + Behavioral data We don’t know what this data will do to organizations Exponential data volume + Machine learning Sensors Processing power (Doubles every 12 months) Data Volume (Doubles every 18 months) Systemix Compexity Big Data allows evidence- based decision-making SOURCE: DIGITAL GROWTH. SOURCE: DIRK HELBING “Most of our future data won’t be our own” - IBM Watson
  41. 41. Photo by Josh Calabrese on Unsplash NEW MODELS AND METHODOLOGIES THATARE ABLE TO FUELT H E N E W S Y S T E M - AT IT’S PACE THE FORCES OF TECHNOLOGY ARE INEVITABLEBUTTO UNDERSTAND THEIR IMPACTWE MUSTTRAIN OURSELVES THROUGH
  42. 42. Today companies need insight to make decisions that challenge their assumptions, their core technology, vector, processes and core business models. Insight that challenge their customers own perception of what they want.And in a format and through a system that distributes this knowledge to every talent and team empowering them to make their own decisions in their interactions with the customer. All in real-time - Helge Tennø - IT’S NOT A QUESTION OF TECHNOLOGY THANKYOU

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