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We overestimate changes in the short run and underestimate them in the long run

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A short introduction to two critical points for understanding the current changes and how they affect companies' customer and business value. The goal of the presentation is to inspire a discussion to develop a shared language and understanding.

Published in: Business
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We overestimate changes in the short run and underestimate them in the long run

  1. 1. «WE OVERESTIMATE CHANGES IN THE SHORT RUN AND UNDERESTIMATE THEM IN THE LONG RUN.» -Amara’s Law, Roy Charles Amara - HELGE TENNØ JOKULL 180360720.NO | JOKULL.IO IMAGE BY JULIAN-G. ALBERT ON FLICKR.COM
  2. 2. JOKULLWhere is your industry on the glacier curve? PART 1: .glacier .bedrock .equilibrium line zone of accumulation zone of ablation
  3. 3. .digital? there is no
  4. 4. PROTOTYPE FLEXIBLE TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEMS Q.: How do we design immediate, agile, dynamic systems? What does it demand from our technology? KEYWORDS: - Flexible, agile and dynamic platforms - Rapid iterations and user testing I- ndividual services and experiences - Immediate, real-time and distributed data - Machine learning / AI for individualization - Collect emails from all customers - Capture all structured and unstructured customer data - Multiple solutions running at the same time FUELLING THE 21st CENTURY ORG. Q.: How cheaply can we get to the first data point? KEYWORDS: - Fast realtime feedback loops, smaller probes in parallell - Cluster on actual behavior - Direct contact between the decision makers and raw data. Without interpretative layers - Continous learning and adaptability RESPONSIVE ORGANIZATION Q.:How do we match the customers distributed networks? KEYWORDS: - Decentralized teams and decisionmaking - Information is open - not protected - Organize around customer problems - Immediate and continous deployment APPROACH / MINDSET Q.: What types of problems are we meeting, simple, complicated and complex? KEYWORDS: - Adopt complex problem approach in addition to already established simple and complicated approach - Capture customer data to understand causality / problem - Strong opinions loosly held Understand customers problems PROGRESS AND CIRCUMSTANCE 21st CENTURY VALUE & REVENUE STREAMS CONSEQUENCE OF 21st CENTURY ON APPROACH/MINDSET, TECHNOLOGY, ORGANIZATION AND BUSINESS: 21st CENTURY THIS MODEL IS JUST A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. ANY FEEDBACK WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED. HT@JOKULL.IO EXPLANATION: This model is a suggested sensemaking tool to help organizations develop a shared language and understanding as they are figuring out how to move from the existing model to a new OS / operating system more fit for the 21st century customers and mutating markets. HOW TO; Problems to solve are driven by customer progress and circumstance - technology, product and process becomes secondary. Standing on top of an orientation trying to fit offering to customers (not the other way around) the company has to understand how mutating markets, agnostic customers and non-proprietary technology changes how to sense and respond. A new organization has to identify how and what value to ad to the organization as making the old world more standardized and efficient escapes new value creation. The model does not have a start or an end. Shitty products with no margins for nonconsumption HELGE TENNØ JOKULL 180360720.NO | JOKULL.IO
  5. 5. WHY? PART 2: FROM 23 TO 3 (SHORT VERSION)
  6. 6. New technology invites companies to find new processes creating new behaviors for people Slow moving societal change like the increase in higher education, standards of living, social complexity and longevity etc. changes people’s mind in regard to what they find valuable PERSON GOALPROCESS BEHAVIOR TECHNOLOGY
  7. 7. How do they prioritize the components in their value chain differently?
  8. 8. Companies aren’t disrupted, components in their value chain are.  NEW VALUE CHAIN TRANSACTION COST = PROCESSING INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TRANSACTION COST = PROCESSING INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION COMPONENT REMAINS UNCHANGED COMPONENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT TO CUSTOMER- COMPANY KEEPS AVERAGE ADVANTAGE NEW COMPONENT EMERGES - COMPANY CHOOSES TO IGNORE EMERGING CUSTOMER DEMAND COMPONENT IS REMOVED FROM THE VALUE CHAIN. VALUE CHAIN BREAKS UP. NEW COMPONENT EMERGES. VALUE CHAIN BECOMES HORIZONTAL. COMPANY IS UNABLE TO COMPETE WITH ASSYMETRIC COMPETITION NEW COMPONENT EMERGES - DATA DRIVEN CLOTHING XXX INTRODUCES NEW DELVIERABLE AS INCUMBENT VALUE CREATION BECOMES INFRASTRUCTURE MAP STRING OF COMPONENTS WHICH COMPONENTS ARE INTERNAL AND WHICH ARE EXTERNAL? IDENTIFY THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE [DISPLAY LOGOS] WHAT IS CUSTOMER VALUE AND WHAT IS INFRASTRUCTURE? WHICH COMPONENTS REPRESENT YOUR COMPETITITVE ADVANTAGE? WHICH COMPONENTS REQUIRE A HIGH DEGREE OF FLEXIBILITY TO MEET THE CHANGING AND DIVERSE NEEDS OF THE MARKET? WHICH COMPONENTS ARE RIPE FOR DISTRUPTION? WHICH COMPONENTS ARE KEY WHEN MUTATING TO OTHER INDUSTRIES? - HOW DO WE ORGANIZE FOR THIS? HOW DO WE FUEL THE ORGANIZATION? ca. Mu. cv.infr. flex D. VALUE CHAIN MAPPING: Question: Which components are under what types of threats in your value chain?
  9. 9. Time Creating a market by seeing it from the perspective of the customer value proposition [CVP] The original technology and processes end up becoming a commodity or infrastructure Competition is openly let in to offer the same CVP due to difference in technology and process Market in terms of Customer Value THE CUSTOMER OS Operating in the market from the perspective of its Customer Value Proposition Question: What is our customer data helping us understand?
  10. 10. PROTOTYPE FLEXIBLE TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEMS Q.: How do we design immediate, agile, dynamic systems? What does it demand from our technology? KEYWORDS: - Flexible, agile and dynamic platforms - Rapid iterations and user testing I- ndividual services and experiences - Immediate, real-time and distributed data - Machine learning / AI for individualization - Collect emails from all customers - Capture all structured and unstructured customer data - Multiple solutions running at the same time FUELLING THE 21st CENTURY ORG. Q.: How cheaply can we get to the first data point? KEYWORDS: - Fast realtime feedback loops, smaller probes in parallell - Cluster on actual behavior - Direct contact between the decision makers and raw data. Without interpretative layers - Continous learning and adaptability RESPONSIVE ORGANIZATION Q.:How do we match the customers distributed networks? KEYWORDS: - Decentralized teams and decisionmaking - Information is open - not protected - Organize around customer problems - Immediate and continous deployment APPROACH / MINDSET Q.: What types of problems are we meeting, simple, complicated and complex? KEYWORDS: - Adopt complex problem approach in addition to already established simple and complicated approach - Capture customer data to understand causality / problem - Strong opinions loosly held Understand customers problems PROGRESS AND CIRCUMSTANCE 21st CENTURY VALUE & REVENUE STREAMS CONSEQUENCE OF 21st CENTURY ON APPROACH/MINDSET, TECHNOLOGY, ORGANIZATION AND BUSINESS: 21st CENTURY THIS MODEL IS JUST A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. ANY FEEDBACK WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED. HT@JOKULL.IO EXPLANATION: This model is a suggested sensemaking tool to help organizations develop a shared language and understanding as they are figuring out how to move from the existing model to a new OS / operating system more fit for the 21st century customers and mutating markets. HOW TO; Problems to solve are driven by customer progress and circumstance - technology, product and process becomes secondary. Standing on top of an orientation trying to fit offering to customers (not the other way around) the company has to understand how mutating markets, agnostic customers and non-proprietary technology changes how to sense and respond. A new organization has to identify how and what value to ad to the organization as making the old world more standardized and efficient escapes new value creation. The model does not have a start or an end. Shitty products with no margins for nonconsumption HELGE TENNØ JOKULL 180360720.NO | JOKULL.IO
  11. 11. The old management model is a control mechanism subdividing talent into compartments where top-management destroys their ability to create value. Enabling companies are driving information rapidly out to front-line self- organizing teams in order for them to operate autonomously and react instantly to changes in customer demand patterns. Employees given the opportunity to use their talent unleash massive wealth for the corporation.  Cases in point: Salesforce, Netflix, Patagonia, Zappos, Tesla, AirBNB, Morning Star, Etsy, Nest, Spotify, Valve, Google, Burtzorg, Haier, Gore Technologies, DSM, GE Health, Whole Foods, Zara, Telus, Uber, Amazon, Facebook, Apple
  12. 12. PROTOTYPE FLEXIBLE TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEMS Q.: How do we design immediate, agile, dynamic systems? What does it demand from our technology? KEYWORDS: - Flexible, agile and dynamic platforms - Rapid iterations and user testing I- ndividual services and experiences - Immediate, real-time and distributed data - Machine learning / AI for individualization - Collect emails from all customers - Capture all structured and unstructured customer data - Multiple solutions running at the same time FUELLING THE 21st CENTURY ORG. Q.: How cheaply can we get to the first data point? KEYWORDS: - Fast realtime feedback loops, smaller probes in parallell - Cluster on actual behavior - Direct contact between the decision makers and raw data. Without interpretative layers - Continous learning and adaptability RESPONSIVE ORGANIZATION Q.:How do we match the customers distributed networks? KEYWORDS: - Decentralized teams and decisionmaking - Information is open - not protected - Organize around customer problems - Immediate and continous deployment APPROACH / MINDSET Q.: What types of problems are we meeting, simple, complicated and complex? KEYWORDS: - Adopt complex problem approach in addition to already established simple and complicated approach - Capture customer data to understand causality / problem - Strong opinions loosly held Understand customers problems PROGRESS AND CIRCUMSTANCE 21st CENTURY VALUE & REVENUE STREAMS CONSEQUENCE OF 21st CENTURY ON APPROACH/MINDSET, TECHNOLOGY, ORGANIZATION AND BUSINESS: 21st CENTURY THIS MODEL IS JUST A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. ANY FEEDBACK WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED. HT@JOKULL.IO EXPLANATION: This model is a suggested sensemaking tool to help organizations develop a shared language and understanding as they are figuring out how to move from the existing model to a new OS / operating system more fit for the 21st century customers and mutating markets. HOW TO; Problems to solve are driven by customer progress and circumstance - technology, product and process becomes secondary. Standing on top of an orientation trying to fit offering to customers (not the other way around) the company has to understand how mutating markets, agnostic customers and non-proprietary technology changes how to sense and respond. A new organization has to identify how and what value to ad to the organization as making the old world more standardized and efficient escapes new value creation. The model does not have a start or an end. Shitty products with no margins for nonconsumption HELGE TENNØ JOKULL 180360720.NO | JOKULL.IO
  13. 13. «Which manager in their right mind would agree to develop a crappy product with no margins to a customer that doesn’t exist yet» - Clayton Christensen - Helge Tennø | jokull.io Customer Strategy IMAGE BY JULIAN-G. ALBERT ON FLICKR.COM

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