Why more investment for Pre disaster stage? Bangladesh spent a lot in the last two decades for disasters. Only one flood in the year 1998 caused estimated loss and damages US 2.0 billion that is 4.8% of our national GDP. This estimated loss and damage figure might be more as dominant loss and damages much more concentrate on infrastructure and bigger public institutions while lesser focus on private and small entrepreneurs including small holders.the movers get stuck in the range of $1 to $2 a day income are still vulnerable to shocks and downward slippages (Sen, Binayak; June 2014, ICE Business, Dhaka). This is a vicious cycle of income erosion where disaster like flood held recurrently and pulling those people behind so that they cannot climb at the upper step of the ladder. We have conducted a rapid assessment on the impact of flood early warning voice message just after of the flood occurred in July –August 2016. Our preliminary findings have revealed that people’s indigenous knowledge did not work like their perception was that ‘if cloud passes from south- west to north-east we would think that water of the river Jamuna will be raised. But this year we could not understand that there would have possibility of flood. Therefore voice message was very important. Among my neighbours around 10 farmers could harvest their jute when they got flood early warning voice messages which financial value minimum would be 9,000 taka ($115) for each. Besides those who we live in deep islands like places, very close to river we evacuated with our cattle and that household wise value would be minimum 100,000 taka ($1200). So if voice message cost taka 20 per household then its return worth valued more than 1000 times higher!”,

1. Flood Early Warning through
Voice Message
Dr. Faruk Ul Islam
Md. A. Halim Miah and Mohammad Kamrul Islam Bhuiyan
Global Flood Resilience Program
Rugby, Birmingham, UK
3 October 2016

2. Study Methodology
Sirajganj Belkuchi
Sadaar
kazipur
Bogra
SariakandiDhunot
1. Gosaibari UDC
2. Vandarbari UDC
3. Kutubpur UDC
4. Sadar UDC
5.Fulbari UDC
SERVICES
Step-1. Customize for Bulk Voice Message and delivered within 12 hours to the people
at flood risk in 15 Unions of five Upazilas under two most flood risk districts in
Bangladesh. 2. Bulk Voice message sent among 50,00 mobile holders who can amplify it
3. Disseminate three days continuously with WHAT TO DO MESSAGE

3. How the Services developed
1 Community Early
Warning System
National efforts mostly for Cyclone
2 Flood Early Warning FFWC generates flood forecast and early
warning that is still in challenge to reach at
flood risks people
3 Flood early warning
messages
Reach to District and maximum Upazila
Disaster Management Committee
4 People Centred
Flood EWS
There is lacked of investment and efforts by
the stakeholders on Flood EWS at community
level except some trials like initiatives by
GO- NGOs partnership

4. How the Services developed cont.
Review
nation
al
FEWS
Conduct
need
assessme
nt Piloting at small
scale FEW
dissemination
through voice
blast in the
community
level ( 250
persons) in 2015
flood
Rapid assessment revealed very
positive results of that piloting to
reduce loss of poor people’s
property and lives from flood in
2015 (a medium scale flood) and
cost benefit perspective message
amplified 10 times from each
voice message recipient
1. Reviewed challenges of piloting
2. Shortened the collection, re-composition
and dissemination time by 12 hours from 24
hours ( even services for weekend) 3. target
to reach 100 times more than earlier ( 250
directly )
Forecast is very important for agriculture. We
who are farmers rainfall information is very
needed; Panel Chairman, Ratanpur UP,
Sirajganj, consultation meeting, MMS, 11th
August 2015
“It is a big challenge to send our
message at the grassroots level,
where Practical Action is supporting
in this work”- Mr. Shamim Ahsan,
Agro-Materiology Division, BMD, 10
August 2015

5. Some directives of Grassroots for
EWS development
• “Volunteers developed by V2R, are helpful for us. Such
messages (Flood and W forecast) are needed for farmers
but the messages of people should be Voice messages as it
requires ability to listen and reading”- Chairman,
Songacha UP
“ If it is monetary support, once it has end but sustainable
consciousness does not end”- Rashida Parvin, UP Member
“women needs to be engaged. Women participation has to
be equal”- Rehana Parvin, Gandail UP.

6. Table 1: Loss and damage assessment of household assets
n= 20 Household
Before flood
Household assets
price
Afterflood
Household
assets price %
5300 5300 0
4700 4700 0
64000 64000 0
47000 47000 0
42200 42200 0
17800 17800 0
41000 41000 0
172000 172000 0
15500 15200 2
23200 22200 4
6700 6300 6
2750 2500 9
184200 167000 9
33800 29800 11
14700 12900 12
13000 11300 13
13700 11500 16
42000 34500 18
9300 6600 29
39100 22650 42
Preliminaryresultsoffloodloss&
damagesathouseholdslevelinSirajganj,
2016

7. Table 2: Agricultural loss and damage
Before
flood
Household
assets
price
After
flood
Household
assets
price %
1000 1000 0
1000 1000 0
10000 10000 0
3000 3000 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1000 1000 0
8000 8000 0
500 500 0
12000 12000 0
3000 3000 0
0 0 0
500 500 0
250 250 0
3000 3000 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
3900 3120 20
18900 0 100

8. Table 3: Livestock loss and damage
Before
flood
Livestock
value
After
flood
Livestock
value %
3000 3000 0
0 0 0
2000 2000 0
0 0 0
2000 2000 0
500 500 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
600 600 0
1000 0 0
250 250 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
18000 18000 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1800 1000 44
1500 750 50
1000 400 60
52000 7000 86

9. Fisheries loss and damage
• No damage found and only 1 person involved
with fish culture
• Other loss and damage- 2 person reported
need to do plinth raise (700 and 1200 taka for
repair) again and 1 person says toilet and
kitchen fully damaged which need to repair
(3000 taka).
• Access of flood early warning 4 from Gyaner
Haats, 9 from LRA, 2 Govt employee, 1
newspaper , 12 from television, 4 mobile voice
blast
• 15% has no access on early warning info.

10. Narratives: how voice message
reduced flood loss & damage
How Voice message worked?
Utilization of public resources: Amplifying effect “ I do record of voice
message and made it auto with sound system and . It was listened to many
people. There was so water level! It was higher than the previous year.
This message was so important for them as they knew that it will be
flooded but the people who live outside of the embankment they did not
know how much the water level will be increased. Being forecast of water
they evacuated to a safer place.”- An entrepreneur of UDC, Kutubpur,
Bogra
Required interpretation with local context: “ We are illiterate people, we
can not understand Centi meter so we were informed from ‘Tokkor’ (Upto
hand) hand. Information came to us from the people of Union parisahad. If
somebody is informed then it passes from one to one”- a flood victim
“We received flood early warning message two or three days before. When I
got it I decided what to do. I informed my family first and requested to
them to inform other neighbours. As my home is out side of the
embankment which is very close to Jamuna river, within 100 mitre. I am
a LRA. I knew that I would get flood information. I am a responsible man.
“

11. Measuring Cost –Benefit of
Voice message on flood early warning
• “ River is very close to our residence so in 15 July, in the
earlier stage of flood we shifted only our cattle but when
we got the message that water level will be increasing
continuously till mid August then we entire family
members evacuated to this embankment with most of
the valuable things even our beddings, utensils. Two
Chouki ( Wooden cot) and bera ( bamboo made fances)
of our main room were damaged”- a rescued woman
from flood, Kutubpur, Sariakandi, Bogra
• “There was my nephew who was only one and half years
old and Aged parents. Household assets like chair- table,
three cows, poultry which are very valuable – about 100
thousand taka. As message was came in right time so we
saved my family and neighbours valuable assets”

14. Cost benefit of Flood Early Warning
 Consultation on the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Rusks
Reduction highlighted to investment for cross border early
warning system for better disaster preparedness in order to
save lives and properties from severe events
 Potential benefit of flood forecast system in the European
Flood Awareness System counted that 400 Euro return from 1
euro invested
 Studies show that for every $1 invested in storm, cyclone
and flood warning prediction systems in Bangladesh, the
estimated return is between $8 and $500 for a 10-year
period. The investments made so far have contributed to the
saving of thousands of lives
 Source: The monetary benefit of early flood warning in
Europe, by Florian Pappenberger; ESCAP support to improve
disaster early warning system in Bangladesh through RIMES
(Regional Integrated Early Warning System for Africa and
Asia (RIMES) )

15. How People accounts return of
voice message?
 During flood there was Jute plant in the field,
in about 30 decimal land that could be sold
10,500 (1500 BDT per 40 KG). We got message
but could not harvest full due to immature of
plants. We got message five days before both
from RIMES ( Mr. Riahan) & Practical Action. If
we did not get message then there are some
people whose jute was matured to harvest
they would loss, 9,000 BDT. I know in my
community there are 10 farmers who were
able to save their jute from flood – Mr. Akter
Hossain, Education SSC, A share cropper, Rajapur Union Parishad, one
of the most flood effected community in Sirajganj

16. Return of voice message
cont.
Save: Cattle, Household assets and crops
partially obviously lives ( Only three
severely injured in the entire Sirajganj
mainly from snakebites)
Partially damage: Toilet , Tubewell
(Partially), plinth and bamboo or CI sheet
wall of rooms, some plants
minimum saved: 10,000 taka and
maximum – 120,000 BDT
Loss minimum: 600 BDT and maximum:
45,000

17. What worked and challenge
What worked
 Pre-consultation with
the community at flood
risks
 Small scale trial helped
to design a realistic voice
message dissemination (
among 50,00)
 Utilization of local
resources ( Mobile
database of voter ID card
system, LRA, CBOs, UDC
entrepreneur)
What need to be improved
 Up to date of most
vulnerable households
database
 More localized forecasting
system with given priority of
community understandable
scale
 Gender with priority to
women
 Coordination with National
Flood Early Warning
Management System to
improve the flood early

18. Thank you