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1. Janice Horan Crash or Soft Landing? Account Management Tactics for Surviving an Economic Downturn ACS USERS EXCHANGE 2 0 0 1 G E N E R A L S E S S I O N
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7. Whether slow-down or recession or not, the economy can impact your portfolio INFRASTRUCTURE CONSUMERS LENDERS ECONOMY Technology that makes the economy efficient also makes it more volatile. -Alan Greenspan, 14 February 2001
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19. Population Stability Report Measures Change in Score Distribution Over Time SCORE INTERVAL DEVELOPMENT % CURRENT % SHIFT IN % Below 200 200 - 249 250 & Up 33.3% 44.1% 22.6% 39.5% 41.6% 18.9% 2.5% 3.7% Population stability index: 0.02 0 - .1 .1 - .25 Over .25 - No change from development - Monitor for subsequent increases - Change occurred, perform characteristic analysis Stability index guidelines: + 6.2% - -
20. Characteristic analysis report Measures change in attribute distribution over time See how newer accounts differ from the base within key characteristics Corporation Partnership Sole Proprietorship None Given Total BASELINE NUMBER 301 162 100 50 613 BASELINE PERCENTAGE CURRENT NUMBER CURRENT PERCENTAGE CHANGE 49.1% 26.4% 16.3% 8.2% 100.0% 132 85 68 15 300 44.0% 28.3% 22.7% 5.0% 151 – 5.1% 1.9% 6.4% – 3.2% 149 TYPE OF BUSINESS Baseline Date: 01 / 98 - 06 / 98 Applications Received: 07 / 98 - 09 / 98
22. Override Tracking Report Major derogatory trades Debt ratio too high Savings accts. with >$10,000 Bank customer for >6 years Miscellaneous TOTAL OVERRIDES 121 52 2 44 67 286 0 0 2 44 56 102 121 52 0 0 11 184 APPLICANTS ACCEPTS REJECTS REASONS FOR OVERRIDE Compare with policy standards Compare against prior periods Look for performance impact Track High Side and Low Side Overrides for a specific time period (April - June)
23. Detailed delinquency report: Maximum delinquency 10.6 13.5 17.7 20.4 19.8 18.0 100.0 SCORE % ACCEPTED 200 - 209 210 - 219 220 - 229 230 - 239 240 - 249 250 & Up Total 93.0 84.0 72.0 68.0 64.0 59.0 71.1 % ACTIVE 17.2 15.4 9.8 5.6 4.1 2.3 9.1 % EVER 30+ DAYS 9.4 7.1 4.8 3.1 2.3 1.5 4.5 % EVER 60+ DAYS 4.6 3.7 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 2.3 % EVER 90+ DAYS 2.8 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.2 % CHARGED OFF Watch for continued risk ranking Look for operating strategy break-points Compare to prior periods Examine Accounts on Books in Score Ranges for Specific Time Period (01/00-03/00)
24. Detailed delinquency report: Current delinquency 1,843 2,116 2,372 2,587 2,368 1,976 13,262 SCORE # ACTIVE 200 - 209 210 - 219 220 - 229 230 - 239 240 - 249 250 & Up Total 173 151 113 81 55 29 602 # NOW 60+ DAYS 9.4% 7.1% 4.8% 3.1% 2.3% 1.5% 4.5% % NOW 60+ DAYS 9.7 13.0 20.0 30.9 42.1 67.1 21.0 OBSERVED ODDS Watch for continued risk ranking Compare to prior periods Observe both accounts & amounts Examine Accounts on Books in Score Ranges for Specific Time Period (01/00-03/00)
27. Portfolio chronology log Records significant events relevant to credit in company DATE EVENT Scorecard installed with cutoff of 200 3 / 00 Eliminated miscellaneous override and clarified criteria for highside BK override 6 / 00 New teaser rate program rolled out in Fall acquisition campaign. Also testing high credit line cells in B group accts. 8 / 00 Serious drop in tech stocks 12 / 00
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31. Target marketing risky, non-responsive, low revenue potential consumers compensate for losses on riskier consumers drive good consumers toward your business NO OFFER OFFER Design offers that… Eliminate… YES! OK
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37. Collect with care. . . . Almost half (49.8%) of the individuals surveyed said aggressive collection tactics made them file bankruptcy Other evidence suggests that consumers are changing their payment hierarchy OTHER FACTORS: Unemployment Medical Expense Divorce Taxes / Litigation 12% 11% 7% 6%
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Editor's Notes
Good morning. This morning, we take on a rather tough tactic to discuss in an hour. I beg your indulgence for the speediness with which I’ll go through the first couple of sections, and for your understanding that we stay high level in many discussion areas. I also ask that we try to hold questions to the end of this session. That said, if I touch on terminology or jargon that prevents you from understanding the point, please do interrupt.
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