Global Climatic Change - Engineers Perspective


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Global Climatic Change - Engineers Perspective

  1. 1. Global Climate Change ASHOK GHOSH Professor In charge Dept. Dept of EWM A. N. College, Patna
  2. 2. GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE If everyone on Earth continue our current life style, it would take more than 7 Earths to support human population by the end of this century.
  4. 4. Our planet is heating up … … and we are responsible Unless we take steps NOW to curb global warming, b l b l i our way of life, our future, and our family are all in y GRAVE DANGER.
  5. 5. Should We Care?
  8. 8. Polar ice caps are melting Sea levels are rising
  9. 9. Antarctic Ice, 2000 Antarctic Ice  2000 Some of the  massive glaciers in  Antarctica, such as  Marr Ice Piedmont  pictured here, are  thinning and racing  to the sea at a  faster rate. Some  ice shelves, such as  Larsen B, have  disintegrated  altogether.
  10. 10. Bangladeshi Village, 2005 A one‐meter (3.2‐ foot) rise in sea level,  which could result  from the melting of a  fraction of  Greenland's glaciers  or Antarctica's ice  sheets, would flood  sheets  would flood  10 percent of  Bangladesh,  including the village  on Bhola Island  pictured here, and  i d h   d  displace at least 20  million people. million people
  11. 11. Chicago Heat, 1995 Extreme weather  events, such as  h the heat wave in  Chicago in 1995  Chi  i     that killed 700  people or the hot   l     h  h spell in Europe  that killed 20,000  h  kill d    in 2003, will  become more  b     common as the  globe warms. l b  
  12. 12. Mountain Retreat, 2004 Mountain Retreat  2004 Plants and animals  that live at climatic  boundaries, such as  specific elevations  in the mountains,  have been  retreating up alpine  slopes as  temperatures  warm, like these  plants on Mount  l t    M t  Schrankogel in  Austria. Austria
  13. 13. Drought with Chinese Characteristics, 2005 Droughts will also  become more  common in some  areas, like the one  that gripped  Gua gdo g Guangdong  Province in China  in 2005 and dried  5 up wells and  p ponds that had  served for  centuries.
  14. 14. Penguin Peril, 2000 Islets off of  Antarctica's Anvers  Island have lost half  of their nesting pairs  of Adélie penguins  (Pygoscelis adeliae)  since the 1970s. This  h h rookery that has  existed for at least  e isted for at least  600 years must move  because of rising  temperatures and  changing ice cover.
  15. 15. Modern Atlantis, 2005 The children of  Tuvalu, an island  nation in the South  Pacific just 16.5 feet  ( (five meters) above  ) sea level at its  highest point, wait  out an inundating  high tide, more  common with each    ith  h  passing year, on  their  kaupapa,  an  their "kaupapa " an  outdoor sleeping  platform.
  16. 16. GLACIAL SPEED: Greenland may get  much of the scientific  attention but it is  smaller glaciers such as  the Columbia Glacier in  Alaska pictured here  that are already  contributing to sea  level rise‐‐and will  continue to do so in  future. future
  17. 17. Chaney Glacier Terminus  BEFORE: Chaney Glacier - 1911 AFTER: Chaney Glacier - 2005.
  18. 18. Portage Glacier, Alaska  g , Receded Five KM,Revealing a lake Portage Glacier, 1914 Portage Glacier, 2005
  19. 19. Grinnell Glacier Before -Grinnell Glacier -1940 After - Grinnell Glacier - 2004
  20. 20. Shepard Glacier from Pyramid Peak Before - Shepard Glacier- 1913 p Before - Shepard Glacier- 2005 p
  21. 21. Swiftcurrent Glacier Before- Swiftcurrent Glacier -1900 After- Swiftcurrent Glacier -1998
  22. 22. Boulder Glacier Before - Boulder Glacier -1932 After - Boulder Glacier - 2005
  23. 23. Greenland Ice Sheet WATER POWER Water pressure  cracked all the  way through the  nearly half‐mile  thick Greenland  ice sheet, leaving  this fissure where  a meltwater lake  once rested.
  24. 24. Greenland s……………………. Greenland’s On July 29, 2006, there was a roughly 11‐billion‐ gallon  lake that stretched more than two square  miles  and covered the western portion of  G ee a d s ass e ce s eet t e spa o 6 Greenland's massive ice sheet. In the span of 16  hours, it was gone. The reason: water pressure  c ac ed t oug t e o e t a a cracked through the more than half‐mile thick  ice,  e t c ce, draining the lake as its water rushed through the  new funnel and gathered below the giant  ice sheet,  g g , raising it nearly four feet and moving it nearly three  feet  to the north.
  25. 25. When did the  p problem begin? g The problems began when human activities created & released more gases in the atmosphere than are necessary necessary.
  26. 26. Burning natural gas, coal & oil B i t l l il raise the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere & accelerate the warming effect.
  27. 27. Anthropogenic CO2 ‐ Many factories  g produce long‐lasting gases that contribute to  the global warming AES Drax in Yorkshire pumps p p smoke out of the tallest chimneys in the country The country. coal-fired power p plant emits more CO2 – 22.8 million tonnes annually – more than the 100 least-industrialized nations combined.
  28. 28. Intensive farming leads to global warming • Some farming practices & use of fertilizers produce gases that trap heat more than Carbon Dioxide. • For instance, Nitrous Oxide, found in pesticides can retain 300 times more heat than CO2.
  29. 29. Forests are vital for absorbing & storing the world's carbon world s dioxide (CO2). When trees are cut & burnt the damage is two-fold: two fold: * The world's capacity to world s absorb CO2 is reduced. * Large amounts of stored carbon are released back into the atmosphere.
  30. 30. The oceans are like giant storage heaters g g Oceans trap heat and absorb Carbon dioxide. They are like time-bombs, masking the real effects of the Carbon dioxide we have been releasing into the atmosphere. Constant disturbance of the sea currents is a threat awaiting to unleash.
  31. 31. Sources of  Greenhouse Gases 
  32. 32. Hockey Stick - Earth’s Temperature Variations:Past 1000 Years
  33. 33. IPCC report:
  34. 34. Correlation of CO2 Conc. to  Temperature Rise Source:  Pew Center for Global Climate Change CO2 Temperature
  35. 35. impacts 2 Degrees C target Source: Stern Review
  36. 36. Significant Climate  Anomalies and Events in 2008  Heat wave Low precipitation L i i i Heavy Snows Heavy Rains Drought D ht Extreme storm Low temps Source:  UNEP Year Book, 2008
  37. 37. Global warming will kill BILLIONS this Century Green house gases can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds and thousands of years. Here are few DEADLIEST effects of global warming..
  38. 38. Population growth accelerates global warming as more & more people use fuels for heat, transportation & manufacturing
  39. 39. A: Spread of infectious disease Global Warming leads to 150,000 150 000 deaths every year These numbers could double by 2020 As the globe warms, disease-carrying mosquitoes & rodents spread, infecting q p , g people. Outbreaks of Dengue fever, Malaria, Chikingunia, Allergies & Asthma have already started affecting daily lives.
  40. 40. More Intense Hurricanes are on the Way The oceans are getting warmer stronger warmer, hurricanes & calamities like tsunami are getting more frequent.
  41. 41. “Sawing off the branch we are sitting on” Sawing on Deforestation is Choking the Earth. 34 million acres of trees, the size of Italy, are cut each year.
  42. 42. Increased intensity of droughts & heat waves
  43. 43. Stronger Hurricanes Katrina 320 Million trees , corresponding to a biomass of 0 09 to 0 11 0.09 0.11 petagrams of CO2 were transferred form live to dead pools
  44. 44. Stresses on Coral Reefs Coral Reef off Fiji
  45. 45. D: Economic consequences q Natural calamities do billions of money in damage & disease outbreaks cost money to treat and control control.
  46. 46. H: Food will cost as much as gold g The threat to future food supplies from climate change weighs h f li t h i h heavily il on an expected world population of 9 billion people by 2050.
  47. 47. G: We will lose drinking water As sea levels rise, sea water will invade coastal groundwater, t l d t making it salty hence undrinkable.
  48. 48. Coastal Flooding A NASA high-tech aerial survey shows that Global warming is melting 50 billion tons of ice in a year from the Greenland ice sheet. This is increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding around aro nd the world. orld
  49. 49. EPA Findings 2009 The U.S. EPA is finally acknowledging that   Th  U S  EPA i  fi ll   k l d i  th t   greenhouse gases in the atmosphere contribute  to air pollution which in turn poses a health  t   i   ll ti   hi h i  t      h lth  threat. This year, the EPA issued a finding that  identified six greenhouse gases in the  id tifi d  i   h    i  th   atmosphere “endanger the public health and  welfare of current and future generations.” lf   f  t  d f t   ti ” The six GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane,  nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons,  perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. In  2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the EPA to  conduct a thorough review of greenhouse gases  pollution and air pollution.
  50. 50. EPA Findings 2009 The finding acknowledged that the high concentrations of GHGs in  Th  fi di   k l d d th t th  hi h  t ti   f GHG  i   the atmosphere is the “unambiguous result of human emissions.”  EPA also listed ten effects of climate change that are currently being  g y g observed and are projected to occur in the future: The increased likelihood of more frequent and intense heat waves More wildfires Degraded air quality Heavy downpours and flooding Increased drought Greater sea level rise More intense storms Harm to water resources Harm to agriculture Harm to wildlife and ecosystems
  51. 51. Greenhouse Gas Emission Farmed animals generate more greenhouse   gases than  SUVs, tractor trailers, trains, and jumbo jets put  SUV  t t  t il  t i   d j b  j t   t  together.  According to U.N. scientists, the livestock sector is one  According to U N  scientists  the livestock sector is one  of the largest sources of carbon dioxide and the single  largest source of both methane and nitrous oxide  g emissions. Nitrous oxide is about 300 times more potent as a global  g warming gas than carbon dioxide.  The meat, egg, and dairy industries account for a  staggering 65 percent of worldwide nitrous oxide  f ld d d emissions.
  52. 52. How E i H Engineers can h l ? help?
  53. 53. Role of Engineers in  Addressing Climate Change Add i  Cli t  Ch Engineering  associations have long been  advocates for the engineering business g g It’s time to change that role Bridge the gaps among society, science and  B id   h       i   i   d  politics • Society requires strong coordination  between politicians and engineers  to arrest  climate change
  54. 54. Why a Politician? y Consulting Engineers Have Consulting Engineers Lack Knowledge g Avowed ambition Capabilities Political sensibility Technical skills Strong image Organization Communication  Position  skills to improve living  to claim a leadership  conditions in the  p position for  world, world improving our  But…  society
  55. 55. Why is a New Approach Needed? • Globalization • We live in a “Risk Society” • Relationship among society   Relationship among society,  science and politics has changed Who should be leading  who?
  56. 56. Consulting Engineers Can Be  g g That Bridge  BUT… • Consulting engineers must  act beyond their  commission • Consulting engineers have  a responsibility to do so
  58. 58. Winds of Change Renewable sources  of energy, such as  the wind farm  pictured here in  Rockville, Ill., offer  hope of  alternatives to the  fossil fuels, such as  coal, that emit the  greenhouse gases,  which cause  climate change  when burned.
  59. 59. HOW DO ENGINEERS BRIDGE…………… HOW DO ENGINEERS BRIDGE Do a better job of defining the problem Develop a technology roadmap for improving sustainable performance  Demand extraordinary levels of  cooperation and collaboration Revise engineering curriculums to  deliver the engineer required for the  d li   h   i   i d f   h   21st century y
  60. 60. Do a Better Job of Defining  g the Problem Climate change as a  symptom of a flawed  economic  development model Need to understand  the full breadth of  the problems we’re  dealing with Current situation Impacts and urgencies p g
  61. 61. Climate Change as a Symptom of a  Flawed Economic Development Model Fl d E i  D l t M d l • Our current model for Our current model for  economic  development is not  development is not sustainable  • Gl b l Cli Global Climate change h • Leading edge of  many problems to  come  • Many are already  here!
  62. 62. Need to Understand the Full Breadth of  the Problems We’re Dealing With • What are people and What are people and  organizations doing that  isn’t sustainable? • What are the consequences  of continuing to be non‐ sustainable? • How serious and urgent are  these consequences? h ? • What needs to be done to  fix them? fi th ? • What does it mean to be  sustainable?
  63. 63. Available Resources and Carrying  Capacities:  Current Situation Ecological  overshoot Ref:  Mathis Wackernagel, et. al., “Tracking the ecological overshoot of  g , , g g the human economy,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jul 9;99(14):9266‐ 71  Year
  64. 64. Climate Change Strategy
  65. 65. Currently available “wedges”
  66. 66. What it Means to be Sustainable Renewable resources (ecological) R bl    ( l i l) Use < Regeneration Non‐renewable resources  (minerals, fuels) (minerals fuels) Use < Rate of development  of renewable substitutes Pollution emissions Emissions < Carrying capacity  i i i i of the environment
  67. 67. Understand the Impacts and  Urgencies i Changes are occurring at  a scope, scale and speed  we never thought possible Scope: Being felt  Scope B i  f lt  everywhere.  More serious  for the poor, less resilient  nations i Scale: Happening at all  scales (local, regional,  ( , g , global) and in all sectors. Speed: Happening faster  than we ever imagined Climate change is the  leading edge of this  change
  68. 68. Develop a Technology Roadmap for  Improving Sustainable  Performance  Response to climate change is most urgent Adaptation, mitigation p , g Working at the project level isn’t sufficient Engineers  owe it to society to challenge unsound,  g y g , politically‐motivated initiatives. The engineering community has that the  requisite knowledge and experience Knows what works or can work Also technology gaps Can team with the scientific community to set  research priorities, agendas research priorities  agendas
  69. 69. Path Forward 1.6 16 Projections 1.4 Development and  Development and Number of Earths Used by Humanity application of  1.2 more sustainable  Target  Target technologies 1.0 Number of Earths pathway Number of Earths Available 0.8 Opportunities  for innovation 0.6 0.4 0.2 Today 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
  70. 70. Revise Engineering Curriculums to  Deliver the Engineer Required for  the 21st Century y Provide meaning and  context to engineering  education Development of globally  p g y aware and internationally  responsible engineers,  g students, and  professionals. “Engineering Education  30 3.0”
  71. 71. Mission Green Earth The more you   Th     plant – The  greener it gets Plant a tree today  and stand  up to  save mother earth
  72. 72. YES Climate change matters because survival of this civilization matters ! THANKS
  73. 73. “Engineering Education 3 0” Engineering Education 3.0 1.0 Age of attrition 1 0 Age of attrition Solving engineering puzzles out  of context Engineering is not for slackers! f l k 2.0 Age of competition Puzzles plus practicum Design contests, mostly single  discipline focused  Engineering can be fun! 3.0 Age of contribution Puzzles in context How engineering contributes to  quality of life Engineering has significance!