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BBY Limited
ABN 80 006 707 777 Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority (FSA) in the UK
Melbourne Sydney London Internet
Tel: 61 3) 9226 0000 Tel: 61 2) 9226 0000 Tel: 44 0) 207 201 2183 http://www.bby.com.au/
Fax: 61 3) 9226 0244 Fax: 61 2) 9226 0066 Fax: 44 0) 207 201 2181
b
This report may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or
accounts. Before making an investment or trading decision, the recipient must consider market developments subsequent to the date of this document, and whether
the advice is appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or seek further advice on its appropriateness or should form his/her own independent view
given the person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs regarding any securities or Financial Products mentioned herein. Although every
attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which
cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by BBY, its associates, officers, directors, employees and agents. A full international disclaimer is contained on the final
page of this report.
CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF v the banks
Quantifying the impact of IMF’s bank exception fee class action
IMF (Australia) Ltd (IMF), Australia’s largest litigation funding company (LFC), announced Australia’s
largest class action against 12 banks, including the four major banks – Australia and New Zealand
Banking Group Ltd (ANZ), Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd
(NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd (WBC). IMF’s class action challenges the legal validity of
“exception fees”, which include late payment fees, honour fees, dishonour fees and over limit fees.
BBY’s analysis concludes that: (i) the per share accretive NPV impact to IMF is from
5cps (low case) to 50cps (high case); and (ii) the high case impact on the major banks is marginal,
with FY10F EPS decreases ranging from 1.1% (ANZ) to 1.8% (WBC).
We conclude that the total addressable claim value is from A$7.3bn to A$8.4bn. The key value driver
for IMF (and downside risk for the major banks) is the plaintiff class participation rate. BBY’s Base
Case assumes only 5% plaintiff class participation and BBY’s High Case assumes 10% participation,
implying a total litigation claim value of A$250M − A$730M.
IMF’s claim is based on the common law precedent that liquidated damages for breach of contract are
only allowable if they are a genuine pre-estimate of actual costs. IMF claims that banks’ exception fees
exceeded the banks’ costs and are therefore not legal. IMF will be claiming a full refund of the fees
plus interest from the date of the exception fee.
This class action follows the passage of “unfair contract” legislative protections in March 2010 and
major banks’ reduction of exception fees from 1 October 2009. The Trade Practices Amendment
(Consumer Law Bill) 2009 renders void clauses in a standardised contract which are deemed “unfair”.
This legislation prompted the major banks to remove or materially reduce their exception fee charges,
generally from 1 October 2009.
Assuming the banks eventually settle at 30% (low case) − 55% (high case) of IMF’s claim face value,
then the 12 banks will pay from A$75M (low case) − A$403M (high case) in total. This would translate
to A$9M – A$68M in NPAT to IMF, implying 5 − 50cps NPV accretion. Given IMF closed at A$1.43 prior
to this announcement, we would expect IMF to trade within the A$1.59 (base case) to A$1.93
(high case) share price range.
George Gabriel, CFA
+61 9226 0091
ggg@bby.com.au
13 May 2010
b
BBY Limited 13 May 2010 2
CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
We expect IMF to trade
within the A$1.59 to A$1.93
share price range.
The impact on major banks
is marginally negative.
We estimate that this class action will add from 5cps (low case) to 50cps (high case) to IMF’s
NPV. Given IMF was at A$1.43 prior to the announcement, this implies a share price range of
A$1.59 to A$1.93.
We believe the impact on the major banks’ earnings will be marginally negative, with the high
case implying 1.1% cash NPAT downside for ANZ and CBA; 1.4% downside for NAB and
1.8% downside for WBC.
Background to the class action
IMF has launched Australia’s
largest class action against
12 banks, including the four
majors.
IMF, Australia’s largest litigation funding company (LFC), announced Australia’s largest class
action against 12 banks, including the four majors. The action is targeting
“exception fees” – including late payment fees, honour fees, dishonour fees and over limit
fees – which are typically from A$25.00 to A$60.00 per transaction.
IMF’s claim is based on the common law precedent that liquidated damages for breach of
contract are only allowable if they are a genuine pre-estimate of actual costs. IMF claims that
banks’ exception fees exceeded the banks’ costs and are therefore not legal. IMF will be
claiming a full refund of the fees plus interest from the date of the fee.
This class action follows the passage of “unfair contract” legislative protections in March 2010
and major banks’ reduction of exception fees from 1 October 2009. The Trade Practices
Amendment (Consumer Law) Bill 2009 renders void clauses in a standardised contract which
are deemed “unfair”. This legislation prompted the major banks to remove or materially
reduce their exception fee charges, mostly from 1 October 2009.
Quantifying the impact on major banks
The key swing factors are:
(i) % plaintiff class
participation; and
(ii) % claim value received
as settlement.
Table 1 summarises the expected impact on major banks. We conclude that the cash
earnings impact on the major banks is from -1.1% to -1.8%.
Based on our analysis, we conclude that IMF’s total potential claim value is from
A$7.3bn – A$8.4bn (including interest).
Our base case assumes only 5% of the plaintiff class participates, implying a litigation
claim value of A$379M.
Our high case assumes 10% of the litigation class participates, implying a litigation claim
value of A$730M.
Assuming the banks eventually settle at 40% (base case) − 55% (high case) of litigation
claim value, total settlement value from the banks will be from A$152M (base case) to
A$403M (high case).
Note that the totals paid by the major banks do not add to the total expected settlement
amount in the class action because the major banks only account for approx. 72% of the
total expected settlement amount.
b
BBY Limited 13 May 2010 3
CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS
TABLE 1: EXPECTED SETTLEMENT AMOUNTS PER MAJOR BANK – BASE AND HIGH CASES
WBC is the most impacted,
given its overweight
exposure to Australian retail
banking.
A$M
FY10F cash
earnings impact
Base Case expected
settlement value (A$M)
High Case expected
settlement value (A$M)
%
ANZ -1.1% 20.5 54.4 18.8%
CBA -1.1% 24.8 65.9 22.8%
NAB -1.4% 23.3 61.9 21.4%
WBC -1.8% 40.4 107.4 37.1%
108.9 289.5 100.0%
Source: BBY.
Quantifying the claim potential
BBY estimates that the total
potential claim value is from
A$7.3bn to A$8.4bn.
The major banks received
A$852M annualised
exception fees in 2009.
We estimate that the total claim potential value is from A$7.328Bn (high case) − A$8.39Bn
(high case), with base case A$7.581Bn. Our conclusion is based on the following:
RBA’s calculation of exception fees in 2008 at A$1.2bn (source: “Banking Fees in Australia,
May 2009”).
APRA’s split of “total fees and commissions” as 72% major banks, 17% domestic banks,
and 11% foreign subsidiaries (source: APRA quarterly banking statistics, September 2009).
Given IMF’s class action has limited foreign bank defendants, we mostly exclude foreign
banks from our calculation of the total claim pool. We include major banks
(72% x A$1.2bn = A$862M) and other domestic banks (17% x A$1.2bn = A$204M) and
conclude that A$1.069bn of exception fees in 2008 is captured by IMF’s claim.
BBY’s analysis of 1H10 results indicates that total major banks’ exception fee opportunity
cost in 1H10 is A$426M (ANZ – A$80M; CBA – A$97M; NAB – A$91M; WBC A$158M).
IMF’s claim captures exception fees going back up to six years (duration of the statute of
limitations) and also includes interest from the time of fee charge.
The four key value drivers to IMF are; (i) % of plaintiff class participation; (ii) settlement
ratio as % of face value of claim; (iii) litigation fees; and (iv) the number of years to settle
the case. We summarise the low, base and high cases in Table 3 below.
BBY’s base case total potential claim value is of A$7.581bn (including interest at 7%), or
A$5.656bn excluding interest.
IMF will charge class action plaintiffs a flat 25% fee. Clients will make zero contribution to the
litigation’s operating costs.
TABLE 2: BBY BASE CASE ESTIMATE OF TOTAL IMF CLAIM POTENTIAL (A$M)
Totals 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Household exception fee growth rate (pa) 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Business Exception fee growth rate (pa) 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Household exception fees 985 887 799 720 649 585
Business exception fees 189 182 175 168 162 155
Subtotal exception fees claimable 5,656 1,174 1,069 974 888 810 740
Cumulative interest 1,925 170 241 303 358 406 448
Total IMF claim potential 7,581 1,344 1,310 1,277 1,246 1,216 1,188
Source: BBY, APRA, RBA, bank annual reports, IMF
b
BBY Limited 13 May 2010 4
CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS
TABLE 3: SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Driver Low case Base case High Case
% of plaintiff class participation 3% 5% 10%
Settlement ratio as % of claim value 30% 40% 55%
Total litigation expenses A($M) -6 -5 -4
No. years to settle 3.0 1.5 1.0
Total settlement value (A$M) 75.5 151.6 403.1
IMF NPAT contribution (A$M) 9.0 23.0 67.7
Source: BBY
The defendants
IMF is pursuing 12 banks,
including the four majors.
IMF is targeting 12 banks, in three different categories:
The major banks – ANZ, CBA, NAB and WBC (Four).
Other domestic banks – Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ); BankSA; BankWest;
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (BEN); Suncorp-Metway Limited (SUN); and
St George Bank (Six).
Foreign subsidiary banks – Citibank; and HSBC (two).
The plaintiff class
A key value driver is the rate
of plaintiff class
participation.
IMF’s plaintiff class is anyone who has incurred at least one exception fee in the last six
years.
IMF is targeting over 100,000 plaintiffs before proceeding. We understand that IMF signed
over 6,000 people in the first few hours since its announcement. This run-rate would give IMF
its target plaintiff number within one month.
One key value driver (for both IMF and the major banks) is the rate of plaintiff class
participation. To this end, IMF’s mass marketing strategy will be critical. Apart from the free
publicity generated by the high profile class action, IMF is using unconventional marketing
methods to achieve it target plaintiff numbers, including internet registration
(www.financialredress.com.au), viral marketing through Facebook and print media
advertising.
About Financial Redress Pty Ltd
Financial Redress has
already successfully run
individual exception fee
cases.
The class action is being managed by Financial Redress Pty Ltd (FR), a 100% subsidiary of
IMF. The CEO and founder of Financial Redress is James Middleweek, a former lawyer and
equities analyst (an excellent pedigree indeed!).
FR was established in early 2009 to recover compensation from financial institutions on a
range of grounds. Prior to IMF ownership, FR had successfully run individual exception fee
cases against major financial institutions.
b
BBY Limited 13 May 2010 5
CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS
About IMF
IMF is the dominant
Australian litigation funding
company.
IMF has successfully
prosecuted class actions
against blue chip
institutional defendants.
IMF has an excellent track
record, having lost only 4
out of 140 cases since its
listing.
Due diligence and case
selection are key success
factors.
Management is first class.
IMF is clearly Australia’s dominant litigation funding company (LFC). This is evidenced by
Financial Redress’ selection of IMF as a suitable partner to litigate against the major banks.
Indeed, other LFCs often revert to IMF when a particular case becomes too challenging
(eg. National Potato, Ericsson cases).
IMF’s track record against blue chip institutional defendants has given it the credibility to lead
a class action against the major banks. IMF’s class action defendants include
PricewaterhouseCoopers, KPMG, AWB, Lehman Brothers, Ericsson and Microsoft USA.
In our view, no other LFC has the scale, track record or confidence to contemplate such a
class action.
Furthermore, IMF has an excellent track record. Of IMF’s cases, 70% are successfully settled
before trial; up to 15% are discontinued; and the remaining 15% have proceeded to trial with
IMF having lost only four cases (out of 140 total) at trial.
Key to IMF’s success is the experience of its litigators and its due diligence process.
IMF typically rejects 90% of possible lawsuits, indicative of careful due diligence and risk
aversion.
In our view, IMF’s management is first class, with extensive business and litigation
experience. Key staff include:
CEO Hugh McLernon is a lawyer by training, worked as a Crown Prosecutor for eight
years, an independent barrister for nine years and a litigation partner at Clayton Utz for
three years. He effectively founded IMF in 1996 through a private LFC supported by the
entrepreneur Danny Hill.
Chairman Rob Ferguson is a former CEO of IMF and former CEO/Chairman of
BT Australia Investment Bank. His directorships include Primary Health Care, Westfield
Holdings Ltd, Vodafone Australia, GPT and Racing NSW.
Executive Director John Walker is an experienced commercial litigator. He established his
own LFC in 1998, which was acquired by IMF in 2001. He also acts as an Investment
Manager within IMF.
COO/CFO Diane Jones has over 15 years corporate restructuring, advisory and private
equity experience.
Executive Investment Manager Clive Bowman has over 20 years experience in litigation
and litigation funding. Clive has been instrumental in the formation and development of
IMF and has been involved with litigation funding since 1997.
Unresolved questions
The following remains unclear:
Will the banks co-operate with IMF and provide summary totals of exception fees paid for
each person who registers?
If only 10% of the plaintiff class joins the IMF class action (BBY High Case), what of the
residual 90%?
b
BBY Limited 13 May 2010 6
CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS
This report has been prepared and issued (in Australia) by BBY Limited (ABN 80 006 707 777/AFS Licence No. 238095) (BBY) and is subject to the disclosures and restrictions set
out below.
Analyst Certification:
The research analyst(s) identified on the cover of this report individually certify that in respect of each security or issuer that the research analyst covers that: this report accurately
reflects his or her personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.
Legal Entity Disclosures
Australia: BBY is Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. U.K. BBY is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) Registration No.
146367. U.A.E BBY (Dubai) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Licence No. CL0705
General Disclosure
BBY and its associates (as defined in Chapter 1 of the Corporations Act 2001), officers, directors, employees and agents, from time to time, may own or have positions in securities
of the company(ies) covered in this report and may trade in the securities mentioned either as principal or agent or may be materially interested in such securities.
BBY does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could
affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Disclaimer & Warning
This report may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This
report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. Before making an investment or trading decision, the recipient must consider Market
developments subsequent to the date of this document, and whether the advice is appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or seek further advice on its
appropriateness or should form his/her own independent view given the person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs regarding any securities or Financial
Products mentioned herein. Information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither BBY nor its associates make any recommendation or
warranty concerning the Financial Products or the accuracy, or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past
performance is not indicative of future performance. This document is not an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of
any Financial Product, and neither this document or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy
of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by BBY, its
associates, officers, directors, employees and agents. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.
Country specific disclosures
US Investors: This material is intended for use by “major U.S. institutional investors” (as defined in Rule 15(a)-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, (SEA 1934)).
Transactions by or on behalf of any “major U.S institutional investors” or “U.S institutional investors” (as defined in Rule 15(a)-6 of the SEA 1934 in any security mentioned in this
document may only be effected through CIMB Securities (USA) Inc., or Jefferies & Company, Inc. (“Jefferies”), U.S. registered broker dealers. The information upon which this
material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore, its accuracy is not guaranteed. Additional and supporting
information is available upon request. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or to make any investment. Any opinion or estimate constitutes the
preparer's best judgement as of the date of preparation and is subject to change without notice. BBY or Jefferies, Jefferies International Limited or CIMB-GK Securities (USA) Inc,
and their associates or affiliates, and their respective officers, directors and employees may buy or sell securities mentioned herein as agent or principal for their own account.
United Kingdom: This report is issued and distributed by BBY (which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) Registration No. 146367) only to
persons falling within Articles 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49, of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, (all such persons together being referred to
as “relevant persons”). Directors, officers and employees of such entities are also included provided their responsibilities regarding those entitles involve engaging in investment
activity. Persons who do not have professional experience relating to investments should not rely on this document.
U.A.E: This report is prepared or published by BBY (Dubai) Ltd (BBYDL) which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This document is intended only for
Professional Clients and should not be relied upon or distributed to any other person. The writer of this document or a close relative may have a financial interest or material interest
in any investment to which this document relates. BBYDL or its associate may hold 1% or more of the total issued share capital of any issuer referred to in this document. BBYDL
or its associate may act as corporate broker for any issuer referred to herein. An issuer mentioned herein may have a material shareholding in BBYDL or its associate. BBYDL or its
associate may have undertaken corporate finance business with or for any issuer mentioned herein over the past 12 months, and/or may undertake such business in the future. An
associate of BBYDL may be a market maker in any investment referred to herein.
Canada: The investments or investment services referred to in this document are available in Canada only to “Designated Institutions”, as defined by the Securities Act (Ontario).
Analysts’ Compensation: the research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy
of the analyst(s) research, client evaluation feedback, independent survey rankings and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units and
corporate finance.
Other International Investors: International investors outside the US, UK, UAE or Canada are encouraged to contact their local regulatory authorities to determine whether any
restrictions apply to their ability to purchase this investment.
Recipient Representations/Warranties: By accepting this report, the recipient represents and warrants that he or she is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the
restrictions set out in this document and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law.
Meanings of BBY Limited Ratings
Buy – Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.
Hold – Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus or minus 15% within a 12-month period.
Underperform – Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total negative return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.
NR – The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/or BBY Limited policies.
CS – Coverage Suspended. BBY Limited has suspended coverage of this company.
Speculative Buy – Describes stocks we research with a positive bias, whose company fundamentals and financials are being covered, but for which there is insufficient information
for BBY Limited to assign a Buy, Hold or Underperform rating.
Speculative Underperform – Describes stocks we research with a negative bias, whose company fundamentals and financials are being covered, but for which there is insufficient
information for BBY Limited to assign a Buy, Hold or Underperform rating.
Monitor – Describes stocks whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, or for which no financial projections or opinions on the investment merits of the
company are provided.
It is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
Free Float (float / current shares outstanding) *100 – This float figure is the number of shares that are available to the public and is calculated by subtracting the shares held by
insiders and those deemed to be stagnant shareholders. Stagnant holders include ESOP's, ESOT's, QUEST's, employee benefit trusts, founding shareholder equity stake plus
senior management equity stake, corporations not actively managing money, venture capital companies and shares held by Governments.
Valuation Methodology
BBY’s methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalisation, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total return over the next 12 months. The
price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF),
EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group
P/E, sum of parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.
© Copyright BBY Limited
Approved for release by BBY Limited

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IMF - clash of the titans

  • 1. BBY Limited ABN 80 006 707 777 Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK Melbourne Sydney London Internet Tel: 61 3) 9226 0000 Tel: 61 2) 9226 0000 Tel: 44 0) 207 201 2183 http://www.bby.com.au/ Fax: 61 3) 9226 0244 Fax: 61 2) 9226 0066 Fax: 44 0) 207 201 2181 b This report may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. Before making an investment or trading decision, the recipient must consider market developments subsequent to the date of this document, and whether the advice is appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or seek further advice on its appropriateness or should form his/her own independent view given the person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs regarding any securities or Financial Products mentioned herein. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by BBY, its associates, officers, directors, employees and agents. A full international disclaimer is contained on the final page of this report. CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF v the banks Quantifying the impact of IMF’s bank exception fee class action IMF (Australia) Ltd (IMF), Australia’s largest litigation funding company (LFC), announced Australia’s largest class action against 12 banks, including the four major banks – Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ), Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd (WBC). IMF’s class action challenges the legal validity of “exception fees”, which include late payment fees, honour fees, dishonour fees and over limit fees. BBY’s analysis concludes that: (i) the per share accretive NPV impact to IMF is from 5cps (low case) to 50cps (high case); and (ii) the high case impact on the major banks is marginal, with FY10F EPS decreases ranging from 1.1% (ANZ) to 1.8% (WBC). We conclude that the total addressable claim value is from A$7.3bn to A$8.4bn. The key value driver for IMF (and downside risk for the major banks) is the plaintiff class participation rate. BBY’s Base Case assumes only 5% plaintiff class participation and BBY’s High Case assumes 10% participation, implying a total litigation claim value of A$250M − A$730M. IMF’s claim is based on the common law precedent that liquidated damages for breach of contract are only allowable if they are a genuine pre-estimate of actual costs. IMF claims that banks’ exception fees exceeded the banks’ costs and are therefore not legal. IMF will be claiming a full refund of the fees plus interest from the date of the exception fee. This class action follows the passage of “unfair contract” legislative protections in March 2010 and major banks’ reduction of exception fees from 1 October 2009. The Trade Practices Amendment (Consumer Law Bill) 2009 renders void clauses in a standardised contract which are deemed “unfair”. This legislation prompted the major banks to remove or materially reduce their exception fee charges, generally from 1 October 2009. Assuming the banks eventually settle at 30% (low case) − 55% (high case) of IMF’s claim face value, then the 12 banks will pay from A$75M (low case) − A$403M (high case) in total. This would translate to A$9M – A$68M in NPAT to IMF, implying 5 − 50cps NPV accretion. Given IMF closed at A$1.43 prior to this announcement, we would expect IMF to trade within the A$1.59 (base case) to A$1.93 (high case) share price range. George Gabriel, CFA +61 9226 0091 ggg@bby.com.au 13 May 2010
  • 2. b BBY Limited 13 May 2010 2 CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We expect IMF to trade within the A$1.59 to A$1.93 share price range. The impact on major banks is marginally negative. We estimate that this class action will add from 5cps (low case) to 50cps (high case) to IMF’s NPV. Given IMF was at A$1.43 prior to the announcement, this implies a share price range of A$1.59 to A$1.93. We believe the impact on the major banks’ earnings will be marginally negative, with the high case implying 1.1% cash NPAT downside for ANZ and CBA; 1.4% downside for NAB and 1.8% downside for WBC. Background to the class action IMF has launched Australia’s largest class action against 12 banks, including the four majors. IMF, Australia’s largest litigation funding company (LFC), announced Australia’s largest class action against 12 banks, including the four majors. The action is targeting “exception fees” – including late payment fees, honour fees, dishonour fees and over limit fees – which are typically from A$25.00 to A$60.00 per transaction. IMF’s claim is based on the common law precedent that liquidated damages for breach of contract are only allowable if they are a genuine pre-estimate of actual costs. IMF claims that banks’ exception fees exceeded the banks’ costs and are therefore not legal. IMF will be claiming a full refund of the fees plus interest from the date of the fee. This class action follows the passage of “unfair contract” legislative protections in March 2010 and major banks’ reduction of exception fees from 1 October 2009. The Trade Practices Amendment (Consumer Law) Bill 2009 renders void clauses in a standardised contract which are deemed “unfair”. This legislation prompted the major banks to remove or materially reduce their exception fee charges, mostly from 1 October 2009. Quantifying the impact on major banks The key swing factors are: (i) % plaintiff class participation; and (ii) % claim value received as settlement. Table 1 summarises the expected impact on major banks. We conclude that the cash earnings impact on the major banks is from -1.1% to -1.8%. Based on our analysis, we conclude that IMF’s total potential claim value is from A$7.3bn – A$8.4bn (including interest). Our base case assumes only 5% of the plaintiff class participates, implying a litigation claim value of A$379M. Our high case assumes 10% of the litigation class participates, implying a litigation claim value of A$730M. Assuming the banks eventually settle at 40% (base case) − 55% (high case) of litigation claim value, total settlement value from the banks will be from A$152M (base case) to A$403M (high case). Note that the totals paid by the major banks do not add to the total expected settlement amount in the class action because the major banks only account for approx. 72% of the total expected settlement amount.
  • 3. b BBY Limited 13 May 2010 3 CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS TABLE 1: EXPECTED SETTLEMENT AMOUNTS PER MAJOR BANK – BASE AND HIGH CASES WBC is the most impacted, given its overweight exposure to Australian retail banking. A$M FY10F cash earnings impact Base Case expected settlement value (A$M) High Case expected settlement value (A$M) % ANZ -1.1% 20.5 54.4 18.8% CBA -1.1% 24.8 65.9 22.8% NAB -1.4% 23.3 61.9 21.4% WBC -1.8% 40.4 107.4 37.1% 108.9 289.5 100.0% Source: BBY. Quantifying the claim potential BBY estimates that the total potential claim value is from A$7.3bn to A$8.4bn. The major banks received A$852M annualised exception fees in 2009. We estimate that the total claim potential value is from A$7.328Bn (high case) − A$8.39Bn (high case), with base case A$7.581Bn. Our conclusion is based on the following: RBA’s calculation of exception fees in 2008 at A$1.2bn (source: “Banking Fees in Australia, May 2009”). APRA’s split of “total fees and commissions” as 72% major banks, 17% domestic banks, and 11% foreign subsidiaries (source: APRA quarterly banking statistics, September 2009). Given IMF’s class action has limited foreign bank defendants, we mostly exclude foreign banks from our calculation of the total claim pool. We include major banks (72% x A$1.2bn = A$862M) and other domestic banks (17% x A$1.2bn = A$204M) and conclude that A$1.069bn of exception fees in 2008 is captured by IMF’s claim. BBY’s analysis of 1H10 results indicates that total major banks’ exception fee opportunity cost in 1H10 is A$426M (ANZ – A$80M; CBA – A$97M; NAB – A$91M; WBC A$158M). IMF’s claim captures exception fees going back up to six years (duration of the statute of limitations) and also includes interest from the time of fee charge. The four key value drivers to IMF are; (i) % of plaintiff class participation; (ii) settlement ratio as % of face value of claim; (iii) litigation fees; and (iv) the number of years to settle the case. We summarise the low, base and high cases in Table 3 below. BBY’s base case total potential claim value is of A$7.581bn (including interest at 7%), or A$5.656bn excluding interest. IMF will charge class action plaintiffs a flat 25% fee. Clients will make zero contribution to the litigation’s operating costs. TABLE 2: BBY BASE CASE ESTIMATE OF TOTAL IMF CLAIM POTENTIAL (A$M) Totals 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Household exception fee growth rate (pa) 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% Business Exception fee growth rate (pa) 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Household exception fees 985 887 799 720 649 585 Business exception fees 189 182 175 168 162 155 Subtotal exception fees claimable 5,656 1,174 1,069 974 888 810 740 Cumulative interest 1,925 170 241 303 358 406 448 Total IMF claim potential 7,581 1,344 1,310 1,277 1,246 1,216 1,188 Source: BBY, APRA, RBA, bank annual reports, IMF
  • 4. b BBY Limited 13 May 2010 4 CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS TABLE 3: SCENARIO ANALYSIS Driver Low case Base case High Case % of plaintiff class participation 3% 5% 10% Settlement ratio as % of claim value 30% 40% 55% Total litigation expenses A($M) -6 -5 -4 No. years to settle 3.0 1.5 1.0 Total settlement value (A$M) 75.5 151.6 403.1 IMF NPAT contribution (A$M) 9.0 23.0 67.7 Source: BBY The defendants IMF is pursuing 12 banks, including the four majors. IMF is targeting 12 banks, in three different categories: The major banks – ANZ, CBA, NAB and WBC (Four). Other domestic banks – Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ); BankSA; BankWest; Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (BEN); Suncorp-Metway Limited (SUN); and St George Bank (Six). Foreign subsidiary banks – Citibank; and HSBC (two). The plaintiff class A key value driver is the rate of plaintiff class participation. IMF’s plaintiff class is anyone who has incurred at least one exception fee in the last six years. IMF is targeting over 100,000 plaintiffs before proceeding. We understand that IMF signed over 6,000 people in the first few hours since its announcement. This run-rate would give IMF its target plaintiff number within one month. One key value driver (for both IMF and the major banks) is the rate of plaintiff class participation. To this end, IMF’s mass marketing strategy will be critical. Apart from the free publicity generated by the high profile class action, IMF is using unconventional marketing methods to achieve it target plaintiff numbers, including internet registration (www.financialredress.com.au), viral marketing through Facebook and print media advertising. About Financial Redress Pty Ltd Financial Redress has already successfully run individual exception fee cases. The class action is being managed by Financial Redress Pty Ltd (FR), a 100% subsidiary of IMF. The CEO and founder of Financial Redress is James Middleweek, a former lawyer and equities analyst (an excellent pedigree indeed!). FR was established in early 2009 to recover compensation from financial institutions on a range of grounds. Prior to IMF ownership, FR had successfully run individual exception fee cases against major financial institutions.
  • 5. b BBY Limited 13 May 2010 5 CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS About IMF IMF is the dominant Australian litigation funding company. IMF has successfully prosecuted class actions against blue chip institutional defendants. IMF has an excellent track record, having lost only 4 out of 140 cases since its listing. Due diligence and case selection are key success factors. Management is first class. IMF is clearly Australia’s dominant litigation funding company (LFC). This is evidenced by Financial Redress’ selection of IMF as a suitable partner to litigate against the major banks. Indeed, other LFCs often revert to IMF when a particular case becomes too challenging (eg. National Potato, Ericsson cases). IMF’s track record against blue chip institutional defendants has given it the credibility to lead a class action against the major banks. IMF’s class action defendants include PricewaterhouseCoopers, KPMG, AWB, Lehman Brothers, Ericsson and Microsoft USA. In our view, no other LFC has the scale, track record or confidence to contemplate such a class action. Furthermore, IMF has an excellent track record. Of IMF’s cases, 70% are successfully settled before trial; up to 15% are discontinued; and the remaining 15% have proceeded to trial with IMF having lost only four cases (out of 140 total) at trial. Key to IMF’s success is the experience of its litigators and its due diligence process. IMF typically rejects 90% of possible lawsuits, indicative of careful due diligence and risk aversion. In our view, IMF’s management is first class, with extensive business and litigation experience. Key staff include: CEO Hugh McLernon is a lawyer by training, worked as a Crown Prosecutor for eight years, an independent barrister for nine years and a litigation partner at Clayton Utz for three years. He effectively founded IMF in 1996 through a private LFC supported by the entrepreneur Danny Hill. Chairman Rob Ferguson is a former CEO of IMF and former CEO/Chairman of BT Australia Investment Bank. His directorships include Primary Health Care, Westfield Holdings Ltd, Vodafone Australia, GPT and Racing NSW. Executive Director John Walker is an experienced commercial litigator. He established his own LFC in 1998, which was acquired by IMF in 2001. He also acts as an Investment Manager within IMF. COO/CFO Diane Jones has over 15 years corporate restructuring, advisory and private equity experience. Executive Investment Manager Clive Bowman has over 20 years experience in litigation and litigation funding. Clive has been instrumental in the formation and development of IMF and has been involved with litigation funding since 1997. Unresolved questions The following remains unclear: Will the banks co-operate with IMF and provide summary totals of exception fees paid for each person who registers? If only 10% of the plaintiff class joins the IMF class action (BBY High Case), what of the residual 90%?
  • 6. b BBY Limited 13 May 2010 6 CLASH OF THE TITANS: IMF V THE MAJOR BANKS This report has been prepared and issued (in Australia) by BBY Limited (ABN 80 006 707 777/AFS Licence No. 238095) (BBY) and is subject to the disclosures and restrictions set out below. Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) identified on the cover of this report individually certify that in respect of each security or issuer that the research analyst covers that: this report accurately reflects his or her personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Legal Entity Disclosures Australia: BBY is Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. U.K. BBY is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) Registration No. 146367. 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