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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Water	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Discussions	
  Building	
  on	
  an	
  Ini4al	
  Perspec4ve	
  by:	
  
	
  Daniel	
  Lambert	
  |	
  Michael	
  O'Neill	
  |	
  Arup	
  |	
  Australia	
  
Context	
  
The	
  ini4al	
  perspec4ve	
  on	
  the	
  Future	
  of	
  Water	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  global	
  discussions	
  taking	
  place	
  through	
  2015.	
  	
  
This	
  summary	
  builds	
  on	
  the	
  ini4al	
  view	
  and	
  is	
  updated	
  as	
  we	
  progress.	
  
Ini4al	
  
Perspec4ves	
  
Q4	
  2014	
  
Global	
  
Discussions	
  
Q1/2	
  2015	
  
Insight	
  
Synthesis	
  
Q3	
  2015	
  
Sharing	
  	
  
Output	
  
Q4	
  2015	
  
Readiness	
  for	
  Water	
  Scarcity	
  
	
  Currently	
  half	
  of	
  the	
  world’s	
  ci4es	
  with	
  more	
  than	
  100,000	
  in	
  habitants	
  	
  
are	
  situated	
  in	
  areas	
  experiencing	
  water	
  scarcity.	
  To	
  date	
  neither	
  	
  
governments	
  nor	
  businesses	
  have	
  done	
  enough	
  to	
  prepare	
  for	
  this.	
  
The	
  Supply	
  /	
  Demand	
  Challenge	
  
	
  Will	
  it	
  be	
  possible	
  to	
  provide	
  equitable	
  access	
  to	
  water	
  and	
  sanita4on	
  	
  
services	
  when	
  by	
  2030	
  the	
  world	
  will	
  face	
  a	
  40%	
  global	
  shorZall	
  	
  
between	
  forecast	
  demand	
  and	
  available	
  supply?	
  
Desalina=on	
  Essen=al	
  	
  
About	
  96%	
  of	
  the	
  earth’s	
  total	
  water	
  supply	
  is	
  found	
  in	
  oceans	
  and	
  	
  
there	
  is	
  broad	
  agreement	
  that	
  extensive	
  use	
  of	
  desalina4on	
  will	
  be	
  	
  
required	
  to	
  meet	
  the	
  needs	
  of	
  growing	
  world	
  popula4on.	
  
Data	
  Analy=cs	
  
	
  Data	
  analy4cs	
  can	
  help	
  build	
  understanding	
  on	
  how	
  to	
  use	
  the	
  water	
  cycle	
  	
  
to	
  respond	
  to	
  the	
  challenges	
  of	
  climate	
  change.	
  It	
  can	
  also	
  lead	
  to	
  	
  
increased	
  scru4ny	
  of	
  water	
  u4li4es	
  and	
  a	
  be^er	
  understanding	
  of	
  cost.	
  
Real	
  Cost	
  of	
  Water	
  
	
  Users	
  are	
  likely	
  to	
  have	
  to	
  pay	
  for	
  the	
  real	
  cost	
  of	
  infrastructure.	
  One	
  short-­‐
term	
  op4on	
  is	
  the	
  financial	
  recycling	
  of	
  assets	
  and	
  capital.	
  However,	
  in	
  the	
  
longer-­‐term	
  we	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  pay	
  the	
  true	
  value	
  for	
  key	
  resources.	
  
Moving	
  Water	
  	
  
Water	
  sources	
  will	
  con4nue	
  to	
  suffer	
  from	
  over-­‐extrac4on:	
  Mining	
  and	
  other	
  
ac4vi4es	
  will	
  move	
  into	
  our	
  water	
  supply	
  catchments.	
  This	
  means	
  we	
  will	
  need	
  
to	
  move	
  water	
  long	
  distances	
  in	
  4mes	
  of	
  drought	
  to	
  services	
  exis4ng	
  ci4es.	
  
Doing	
  More	
  with	
  Less	
  
	
  The	
  focus	
  should	
  extend	
  to	
  solu4ons	
  that	
  do	
  more	
  with	
  less:	
  irriga4on	
  
efficiency,	
  automated	
  farming	
  techniques	
  and	
  demand	
  management	
  in	
  our	
  
ci4es.	
  Smart	
  infrastructure	
  will	
  help	
  to	
  improve	
  performance.	
  
The	
  Funding	
  Challenge	
  
Water	
  treatment	
  can	
  come	
  at	
  a	
  high	
  price.	
  Around	
  USD50	
  trillion	
  will	
  be	
  
needed	
  worldwide	
  in	
  the	
  period	
  to	
  2030	
  to	
  sa4sfy	
  the	
  global	
  demand	
  for	
  
infrastructure.	
  However,	
  accessing	
  funding	
  is	
  an	
  ever-­‐present	
  challenge.	
  
Taking	
  Hard	
  Decisions	
  
	
  We	
  know	
  that	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  growing	
  urban	
  popula4on;	
  climate	
  change	
  is	
  taking	
  
effect	
  and	
  that	
  the	
  vola4lity	
  in	
  water	
  supply	
  can	
  only	
  be	
  par4ally	
  mi4gated	
  by	
  
improved	
  efficiency.	
  We	
  have	
  yet	
  to	
  decide	
  how	
  to	
  address	
  the	
  problem.	
  	
  
Star=ng	
  the	
  Conversa=on	
  
	
  Water	
  is	
  inter-­‐twined	
  with	
  everything	
  we	
  do;	
  energy,	
  food,	
  health	
  and	
  
wellbeing,	
  manufacturing	
  are	
  all	
  dependent	
  on	
  its	
  availability.	
  At	
  the	
  very	
  	
  
least	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  start	
  a	
  public	
  conversa4on	
  about	
  its	
  real	
  role	
  in	
  our	
  lives.	
  
The	
  Long	
  Water	
  
Wealthy	
  na4ons	
  with	
  water	
  security	
  challenges	
  lead	
  in	
  the	
  development	
  	
  
of	
  collabora4ve,	
  long-­‐term	
  governance	
  models	
  that	
  move	
  away	
  from	
  supply-­‐
oriented	
  governance	
  to	
  demand	
  management	
  and	
  polluter	
  responsibility.	
  
Water	
  Resistance	
  
Technological	
  and	
  process	
  developments	
  make	
  the	
  produc4on	
  of	
  high	
  	
  
quality	
  water	
  from	
  storm-­‐water	
  and	
  wastewater	
  feasible	
  and	
  prac4cal;	
  	
  
driving	
  public,	
  poli4cal	
  and	
  commercial	
  acceptance	
  of	
  recycled	
  water.	
  	
  
Valuing	
  Eco-­‐system	
  Services	
  
Growing	
  recogni4on	
  of	
  the	
  economic	
  value	
  of	
  ecosystem	
  services	
  leads	
  to	
  
core	
  business	
  considera4ons	
  which	
  recognise	
  their	
  explicit	
  value.	
  Natural	
  
capital/assets	
  will	
  become	
  more	
  commonplace	
  in	
  accoun4ng	
  systems.	
  
Flexi-­‐water	
  
Con4nuing	
  uncertainty	
  around	
  water	
  supply	
  will	
  require	
  smart,	
  flexible	
  water	
  
management	
  systems	
  to	
  cope	
  with	
  drought	
  and	
  flood,	
  the	
  effects	
  of	
  climate	
  
change	
  and	
  the	
  demands	
  of	
  new	
  industries	
  and	
  shifing	
  popula4ons.	
  
Water,	
  Water	
  Everywhere…	
  
New	
  water	
  technologies	
  will	
  deliver	
  water	
  more	
  efficiently	
  to	
  the	
  haves,	
  
easing	
  shortages,	
  but	
  will	
  remain	
  unavailable	
  to	
  the	
  have-­‐nots	
  -­‐	
  so	
  
driving	
  visible	
  new	
  inequali4es	
  based	
  explicitly	
  on	
  access	
  to	
  water.	
  
Water	
  Wars	
  
Access	
  to	
  water	
  supplies	
  will	
  play	
  an	
  increasingly	
  important	
  role	
  
	
  in	
  violent	
  regional	
  conflict,	
  with	
  water	
  assets	
  becoming	
  prime	
  targets,	
  	
  
prized	
  spoils	
  and	
  even	
  weapons	
  in	
  their	
  own	
  right.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
  
The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  think?	
  
Join	
  In	
  |	
  Add	
  your	
  views	
  into	
  the	
  mix	
  
	
  
www.futureagenda.org	
  

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The Future of Water: Preparing for Scarcity and Innovation

  • 1.  The  Future  of  Water      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Daniel  Lambert  |  Michael  O'Neill  |  Arup  |  Australia  
  • 2. Context   The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Water  kicked  off  the     Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.     This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.   Ini4al   Perspec4ves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  • 3. Readiness  for  Water  Scarcity    Currently  half  of  the  world’s  ci4es  with  more  than  100,000  in  habitants     are  situated  in  areas  experiencing  water  scarcity.  To  date  neither     governments  nor  businesses  have  done  enough  to  prepare  for  this.  
  • 4. The  Supply  /  Demand  Challenge    Will  it  be  possible  to  provide  equitable  access  to  water  and  sanita4on     services  when  by  2030  the  world  will  face  a  40%  global  shorZall     between  forecast  demand  and  available  supply?  
  • 5. Desalina=on  Essen=al     About  96%  of  the  earth’s  total  water  supply  is  found  in  oceans  and     there  is  broad  agreement  that  extensive  use  of  desalina4on  will  be     required  to  meet  the  needs  of  growing  world  popula4on.  
  • 6. Data  Analy=cs    Data  analy4cs  can  help  build  understanding  on  how  to  use  the  water  cycle     to  respond  to  the  challenges  of  climate  change.  It  can  also  lead  to     increased  scru4ny  of  water  u4li4es  and  a  be^er  understanding  of  cost.  
  • 7. Real  Cost  of  Water    Users  are  likely  to  have  to  pay  for  the  real  cost  of  infrastructure.  One  short-­‐ term  op4on  is  the  financial  recycling  of  assets  and  capital.  However,  in  the   longer-­‐term  we  will  have  to  pay  the  true  value  for  key  resources.  
  • 8. Moving  Water     Water  sources  will  con4nue  to  suffer  from  over-­‐extrac4on:  Mining  and  other   ac4vi4es  will  move  into  our  water  supply  catchments.  This  means  we  will  need   to  move  water  long  distances  in  4mes  of  drought  to  services  exis4ng  ci4es.  
  • 9. Doing  More  with  Less    The  focus  should  extend  to  solu4ons  that  do  more  with  less:  irriga4on   efficiency,  automated  farming  techniques  and  demand  management  in  our   ci4es.  Smart  infrastructure  will  help  to  improve  performance.  
  • 10. The  Funding  Challenge   Water  treatment  can  come  at  a  high  price.  Around  USD50  trillion  will  be   needed  worldwide  in  the  period  to  2030  to  sa4sfy  the  global  demand  for   infrastructure.  However,  accessing  funding  is  an  ever-­‐present  challenge.  
  • 11. Taking  Hard  Decisions    We  know  that  there  is  a  growing  urban  popula4on;  climate  change  is  taking   effect  and  that  the  vola4lity  in  water  supply  can  only  be  par4ally  mi4gated  by   improved  efficiency.  We  have  yet  to  decide  how  to  address  the  problem.    
  • 12. Star=ng  the  Conversa=on    Water  is  inter-­‐twined  with  everything  we  do;  energy,  food,  health  and   wellbeing,  manufacturing  are  all  dependent  on  its  availability.  At  the  very     least  we  need  to  start  a  public  conversa4on  about  its  real  role  in  our  lives.  
  • 13. The  Long  Water   Wealthy  na4ons  with  water  security  challenges  lead  in  the  development     of  collabora4ve,  long-­‐term  governance  models  that  move  away  from  supply-­‐ oriented  governance  to  demand  management  and  polluter  responsibility.  
  • 14. Water  Resistance   Technological  and  process  developments  make  the  produc4on  of  high     quality  water  from  storm-­‐water  and  wastewater  feasible  and  prac4cal;     driving  public,  poli4cal  and  commercial  acceptance  of  recycled  water.    
  • 15. Valuing  Eco-­‐system  Services   Growing  recogni4on  of  the  economic  value  of  ecosystem  services  leads  to   core  business  considera4ons  which  recognise  their  explicit  value.  Natural   capital/assets  will  become  more  commonplace  in  accoun4ng  systems.  
  • 16. Flexi-­‐water   Con4nuing  uncertainty  around  water  supply  will  require  smart,  flexible  water   management  systems  to  cope  with  drought  and  flood,  the  effects  of  climate   change  and  the  demands  of  new  industries  and  shifing  popula4ons.  
  • 17. Water,  Water  Everywhere…   New  water  technologies  will  deliver  water  more  efficiently  to  the  haves,   easing  shortages,  but  will  remain  unavailable  to  the  have-­‐nots  -­‐  so   driving  visible  new  inequali4es  based  explicitly  on  access  to  water.  
  • 18. Water  Wars   Access  to  water  supplies  will  play  an  increasingly  important  role    in  violent  regional  conflict,  with  water  assets  becoming  prime  targets,     prized  spoils  and  even  weapons  in  their  own  right.  
  • 19. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org