2. Introduction – State Climate Action
Plans
■ Why state level approach is important
■ Can have large impacts – 34 of 75 largest GHG
sources in the world are U.S. states
■ States are testing grounds for emerging policy
■ State actions can build political support at federal level
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3. GHGs and Transportation Sector
U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector, 1990-
2006 (with Electricity distributed to End-Use Sectors)
2,500
■ After industry,
Industrial
transportation is leading 2,000
Transportation
source of U.S. GHG 1,500
Tg CO2 Eq.
Residential (purple)
emissions
Commercial (blue)
1,000
■ Transportation sector Agriculture
500
accounts for 28% of
GHGs nationally – much 0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
more in some states
■ Transportation is among Growth in GHG Emissions, 1990-2006 (Tg CO2 Eq.)
600
the fastest growing 500
sources of GHG 400
+427.3
emissions
300 235.4 258.1
200
100
27.
Industry
0 9
Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture
-100
-71.2
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4. Estimated Transportation Share of Total
GHG Emissions by State, 2010
200
180
Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent
160 34%
140 23%
120 23%
100
39%
80 47%
23%
60
40 22%
20
43%
0
AZ CO MN MT NC NM VT WA
All other sectors Transportation
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5. U.S. Transportation GHG Emissions
by Source, 2006
Other Non-Road
7%
Pipelines
Ships and Boats Rail Lubricants
Aircraft Other Aircraft
9%
Commercial
Buses
Aircraft
7%
Passenger Cars
Heavy-duty Vehicles 34%
Light-duty Vehicles
21% Medium- and
Heavy-Duty Trucks
63%
20%
Light-Duty Trucks
28%
Motorcycles
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6. State Climate Actions Plans
■ Plans propose specific
policies and programs for
consideration by the
state legislature or
implementation by state
agency
■ Stakeholder groups
convened to develop
policies aimed at meeting
state emission goals
36 states have developed or
are developing a climate plan
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7. Role of Stakeholder Groups
■ Transportation is one of several key areas for policy
development
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8. Step-Wise Plan Process
■ 1: Develop initial statewide GHG inventories and projections
■ 2: Draft a catalog of possible GHG policy options
■ 3: Identify initial draft priority policy options for evaluation
■ 4: Develop proposals for draft policy option design
■ 5: Quantify potential GHG reduction and cost of draft policy
options
■ 6: Define implementation mechanisms, related policies and
programs, and feasibility issues
■ 7: Iterate to final consensus on draft policy options through
voting by plenary group
■ 8: Finalize recommendations and report
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9. Types of Strategies Included in Plans
■ GHG emissions standards ■ Pay-as-you drive
for LDVs insurance
■ Smart growth measures ■ Non-road measures
■ Clean car purchase ■ Emissions reduction
incentives measures for diesel
vehicles
■ Promotion of transit
■ HDV anti-idling measures
■ Alternative fuels
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10. Transportation Demand Management
Strategies
• Improving multi-modal options, including transit
• Pricing strategies for fuel and driving
• Pricing strategies for parking, and
• Public education and outreach
Bus Photo
Bus Photo
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11. Effective TDM Strategies – Estimated by
States
• Provision/promotion of multiple modes, including transit
• Pay as You Drive Insurance (PAYD)
• Commuter Benefits
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14. Looking Ahead
• At least nine other states are developing climate action plans
• States adopting selected policy recommendations
■ WA per-capita VMT reduction goals
■ AZ clean car GHG standards
• As states and metropolitan areas gain experience, policies and
quantification methods will continue to be refined and TDM may see
a growing role in Climate Action Plans.
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15. Integrating Climate Change into Metropolitan
Transportation Planning
• Metropolitan Transportation Plan
(MTP)
Long-range plan for regional
transportation system
20+ year planning horizon
Fiscally constrained
Updated at least every 4 years in air
quality nonattainment & maintenance
areas, 5 years elsewhere
• Metropolitan Planning Organizations
(MPOs) are beginning to:
■ Incorporate goals and objectives that
relate to climate change
■ Incorporate GHG reduction strategies
■ Examine potential impacts of and
adaptation to climate change
The Metropolitan Transportation Planning Process: Key Issues
A Briefing Notebook for Transportation Decisionmakers, Officials, and Staff
FHWA and FTA
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16. Climate Change Potentially Impacts
Transportation Infrastructure
Current Sea Level
1.5 Meter Rise
Naval Facilities
1. Charts do not include periodic hurricane storm surge, e.g., Isabel 10+ feet.
2. Reference: DOT The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure,
Federal Research Partnership Workshop, October 1-2, 2002, plus ICF follow-on East Coast study
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17. Integrating Climate Change in Metropolitan
Transportation Plans
Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation Energy Conservation/
in: in: Alt. Fuels in:
Trends and Challenges
Trends and Challenges
Trends and Challenges
Performance Measures
Performance Measures
Performance Measures
Policies and Strategies
Policies and Strategies
Policies and Strategies
Vision and Goals
Vision and Goals
Vision and Goals
Size
MPO Region
Eugene, OR S x x x x
Missoula, MT S
Santa Fe, NM S
Albany, NY M x
Grand Rapids, MI M x x x
Portland, OR M x x x x x x x
Salt Lake City M x
Baltimore L x x x
Chicago L x x
Denver L x x x x
Houston -Galveston L x x x
Philadelphia L
Sacramento L x x x x
San Diego L x x x x x x
San Francisco L x x x
Seattle L
Southern California L x x x x
Washington DC L
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18. Example: Metropolitan Transportation
Commission (MTC), San Francisco Bay Area
• Developing Transportation 2035 Plan
• Includes specific measurable objectives (considered “stretch” targets)
for each of its key principles – one relates to climate change
• Analyzing scenarios to assess which options meet the target
From: MTC Memorandum to Planning Committee, January 2008.
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19. Looking Ahead
• Potential increase in attention to TDM due to
convergence of factors, of which climate change is
one
• Related social/economic factors motivating TDM
interest
– High gas prices, energy security
– Increased traffic congestion
– Funding limitations – Highway Trust Fund running out…
– Public health concerns / obesity
– Increased emphasis on efficient system management &
operations (pricing, etc.)
– Quality of life issues / sustainability
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20. Thank you!
Michael Grant Frank Mongioi
703-218-2692 732-218-5040
mgrant@icfi.com fmongioi@icfi.com
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