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The Built Environment
Analysis Model²
IEA Building Envelope Technologies and Policies Workshop




Paris, November 17th 2011

Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Agenda




BEAM² Methodology


Reference Scenario for Germany


Impact Assessment Scenarios for the EU27


Discussion



© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology



Key research questions
   What energy and CO2-emission reduction potentials in buildings?
         in which timeline
         to what costs                            Bottom-up model based
                                                   on sound physical,
         with what limitations                    technical & economic
   Which role play                                assessments
         Financial incentives                     using the EN ISO 13790
                                                   standard and others
         Normative restrictions


   What is the building sector contribution to climate regimes?


     © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology


   Building-Stock Analysis of Cities, Regions and Countries


   Overview on
           Energy Demand (Space Heating & Cooling, Hot Water,
            Electricity)
           Primary Energy (incl. Fuel Mix)
           CO2-and GHG-Emissions
           Investments (Insulation, Heating- and Ventilation Systems)
           Running Costs (Energy- and Maintenance Costs)
           Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measures
   Performance based assessment of current building stock and
    calculation of various scenarios for the future

© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology


Input for
        Current building stock
                Reference buildings (geometries)
                Thermal standards in stock (building shell)
                Technology (HVAC equipment)
                         m² of all combinations in stock


        Scenario calculation
                Retrofit, new building and demolition programs
                         Definition of systems and efficiency standards
                         Climate data (HDD resp. temperature & irradiation)
                         Energy prices and investment costs for measures

    © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology


Differences to other models in the built environment:
  (i.e. Invert, Ikarus, HEAT)


       • Approach (top down vs. bottom-up)
       • Calculation (Performance based vs. component based)
       • Type of calculation (endogenous optimizations* vs. exogenous
         calculations)
       • Sectors covered (residential only vs. all conditioned buildings)
       • Type of energy consumption (space heating**, hot water, cooling**,
         auxiliary energy, electrical appliances)
       • Arithmetics (accounting models vs. calibrated models)
       • Flexibility (static defined models vs. flexible models)


       * IEA Energy Technology Model; ** GEA Buildings Model


   © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology




© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology




© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology


   Implementation in a professional Oracle® database environment




    © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Methodology




© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Reference Scenario Germany

          300.000



          250.000



          200.000
   kt/a




          150.000



          100.000



           50.000



               0
                1990             1992            1994            1996             1998        2000         2002             2004            2006            2008             2010
              Direct and indirekt CO2-emissions [based on BMWi Energiedaten]                         Direct CO2-emissions only [based on BMWi Energiedaten]
              [Kleemann,Hansen, 2005] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating + Hot Water                     [Matthes, Gores et al., 2008] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water
              [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2-eq, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water          [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water

Historic development of CO2-/ CO2eq-emissions in underlying studies between 1990 and 2010. Not climate corrected.


   © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Reference Scenario Germany

        1990


               1991


                      1992


                             1993


                                    1994


                                           1995


                                                  1996


                                                         1997


                                                                1998


                                                                       1999


                                                                              2000


                                                                                     2001


                                                                                            2002


                                                                                                   2003


                                                                                                          2004


                                                                                                                 2005


                                                                                                                        2006


                                                                                                                               2007


                                                                                                                                      2008


                                                                                                                                             2009


                                                                                                                                                    2010
     Energy advise for private consumers
     Environmental Label "Blue Angel" (Umweltzeichen "Blauer Engel")
     Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1978/82
     BMU Programme for the Financing of Demonstration Projects
     Ordinance on Heat Consumption Metering (Heizkostenverordnung)
     Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1982
     DtA Environmental Finance Programme (DtA-Umweltprogramm)
     KfW Environmental Protection Programme (KfW-Umweltprogramm)
     Environmental Debt Guarantee Programme (Umweltschutzbürgschaftsprogramm)
     Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung)
     Housing modernisation programme for the new Federal states (Wohnraum-Modernisierungsprogramm neue Bundesländer)
            On-site energy advice (Vor-Ort-Beratung)
                           Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung)
                                 “100-million-DM programme” for renewables
                                 Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1994
                                        Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1994
                                        Voluntary agreement with German industry I (Erklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft zur Klimavorsorge I)
                                        ERP Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Programme (ERP-Umwelt- und Energiesparprogramm)
                                               Ecological Bonus Programme for owner-occupied homes
                                               KfW CO2 Reduction Programme (KfW-Programm zur CO2-Minderung)
                                               ECO Managment and Audit Scheme (EMAS)
                                                              Energy Consumption Labelling Ordinance (Energieverbrauchskennzeichnungsverordnung)
                                                                    100 000 Roofs Solar Power Programme (100 000-Dächer-Solarstrom-Programm)
                                                                    Ordinance on Maximum Energy Consumption (Energieverbrauchshöchstwerteverordnung)
                                                                    Ecological Tax Reform (Ökologische Steuerreform)
                                                                    Market Incentive Programme for Renewable Energies (Marktanreizprogramm für erneuerbare Energien)
                                                                          Voluntary agreement with German industry II
                                                                                 German Energy Agency (Deutsche Energie-Agentur – dena)
                                                                                 KfW CO2 Building Rehabilitation Programme (KfW-CO2-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm)
                                                                                 Voluntary Agreement on CHP (Selbstverpflichtung der Wirtschaft zur Förderung der KWK)
                                                                                        Energy Savings Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung - EnEV)
                                                                                        Energy Efficiency Campaign (Initiative EnergieEffizienz)
                                                                                        Heat Power Cogeneration Act (Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetz)
                                                                                              KfW Housing Modernisation Programme 2003
            Legend                                                                            Act on the Further Development of the Ecological Tax Reform
                                                                                                            KfW Programme Ecological Construction
            Measure-effects in underlying studies quantified                                                KfW Programme Housing Modernisation
            Measure-effects in underlying studies not quantified                                                                  Energy certificates for buildings
                                                                                                                                  Special fund for energy efficiency in SME's
                                   Measure in force                                                                                      Eco-Design of Energy-using Products
                                                                                                                                         Smart metering



  CO2-mitigating measures in the German building sector between 1990 and 2010

  in chronological order. Source: Mure II database

© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Reference Scenario Germany

Quantification of CO2-emission reductions in 2010 [Mt CO2/a].




Future retrofit- and new-building rates.




  © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Reference Scenario Germany

        300.000



        250.000



        200.000
 kt/a




        150.000
                                  -40% Emission Saving Target



        100.000



         50.000



              0
              1990                      1995                      2000                          2005                  2010                     2015                       2020
                     Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions          Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only
                     "-40% in 2020" target                                                             Heating + Hot Water (all buildings)
                     Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8%                                                    Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%


CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010

from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates

(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.

        © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Impact Assessment EU27

                                             Useful floor area in 2005 in mio m²


              12.000
                                                           CO2 Emissions from space heating in 2005 in Mt/a
              10.000
                                               500
                                               450
               8.000
                                               400
     mio m²




                                               350
               6.000
                                               300
                                 Mt/a




                                               250
               4.000
                                               200
                                               150
               2.000
                                               100

                                                50
                     0
                                                                                     Non-res       Non-res          Non-res
                                       MFH small 0
                                                 (200- MFH medium      MFH large
                           RH (50-200 m²)                                         building (200- building (500- building (>1000 Non-res
                                                                                                                 Non-res                         Non-res
                                          500 m²)     RH (50-200m²) MFH small
                                                      (500-1000       (>1000 m²) MFH medium      MFH large
                                                                                      500m²)       1000m²) buildingm²)  (200- building (500-     building
                                                          m²)      (200-500 m²) (500-1000 m²) (>1000 m²)
                                                                                                                 500m²)         1000m²)        (>1000 m²)
              Floor area      10.721       2.061           1.730         2.373         1.244          1.091           4.353
                                     CO2-emissions        467           47            38             61              49              41           170



  Areas residential CO2non-residential buildings in the EU27 in 2005 non-residential buildings in the EU27 in
                    and -emissions from space heating, residential and
                    2005
  Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.

© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Impact Assessment EU27

                                                                                  EU15           Eastern EU
      New building rate                                                           1%                  1%
      Demolition rate                                                             0,5%               0,5%
      Retrofit rate of buildings not affected by the current EPBD                 0,7%               0,4%
      Retrofit rate of buildings affected by the current EPBD                     1,8%               1,0%
      Development rates of the EU27 building stock


                                                    &
      Scenario                                Description
      Original EPBD >1000 m²                  Original EPBD as from 2006 with 1.000 m² threshold
      EPBD >500 m²                     Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 500 m² as from 2009
                Scenario                           Description
      EPBD >200 m²                     Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 200 m² as from 2009
                EPBD >500 m², high retrofit        As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate
      EPBD >50 m²                      Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 50 m² as from 2009
                EPBD >200 m², high retrofit        As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate
      Scenarios threshold options       Scenario                          Description
                   EPBD >50 m², high retrofit        As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate
                                           EPBD >500 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards
                   Scenarios high retrofit rate
                                            energy
                                               EPBD >200 m², high retrofit, low   As according scenario above with improved thermal standards
                                               energy
                                               EPBD >50 m², high retrofit, low    As according scenario above with improved thermal standards
                                               energy

                                               Scenarios improved thermal standards

  Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.

© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Impact Assessment EU27
                                                                 Endenergy EU-27

        4.000




        3.500




        3.000




        2.500
TWh/a




        2.000




        1.500




        1.000




         500




           0
           2009                                    2014                 2019                                 2024                               2029
                                                                           year
                                EU27-EPBD (>1000)                                  EU27-EPBD(>500)
                                EU27-EPBD(>200)                                    EU27-EPBD (>50)
                                EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit                     EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit, improved thermal standards

                  Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.

                © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Impact Assessment EU27

                  Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a                                     CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a
                          threshold already partially abolished                                                 threshold already partially abolished

               900                                                                                 200

               800                                                                                 180

               700                                                                                 160
                 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a                              140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a
               600
                    threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit                           120threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit
TWh/ a




               500




                                                                                    Mt/ a
                                                                                                   100
               400
               900                                                                                 200
                                                                                                    80
               300
               800                                                                                 180
                                                                                                    60
               200                                                                                 160
               700                                                                                  40
                 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a                              140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a
               100
               600                                                                                  20
               threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved                    threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved
                                                                                                   120
TWh/ a




                 0                                                                                   0




                                                                                    Mt/ a
               500           2010  thermal standards
                                                   2020                     2030                                2010
                                                                                                                     thermal standards2020                    2030
                                                                                                   100
                400
         EPBD >500 m²          3                      33                     37             EPBD >500 m²
                                                                                                     80              1                   8                     9
                    900
         EPBD >200 m²          6                      63                     66                     200
                                                                                            EPBD >200 m²             1                  14                     15
               300                                                                                   60
         EPBD >50 m²          23                     230                     246            EPBD >50 180
                                                                                                     m²              5                  51                     55
               200800                                                                                40
                                                                                                     160
               100700                                                                                20
                                                                                                     140
                                                                                                      0
                  0600                                                                               120           2010                2020                  2030
                             2010                    2020                   2030




                                                                                    Mt/ a
                                                                                            EPBD >500 m²             3                  25                     27
TWh/ a




                    500
         EPBD >500 m²         13                     104                     115                    100
         EPBD >200 m²         20                     156                     168            EPBD >200 m²             5                  36                     39
                                                                                                     80
         EPBD >50 m²400       56                     475                     498            EPBD >50 m²             13                  108                   112
                                                                                                     60
                   300
                                                                                                     40
                   200                                                                               20

                   100                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                    2010                2020                  2030
                        0                                                                   EPBD >500 m²             5                   35                    46
                                   2010               2020                   2030
                                                                                            EPBD >200 m²             7                   50                    63
         EPBD >500 m²              22                  148                   194
                                                                                            EPBD >50 m²              17                 139                   171
         EPBD >200 m²              30                  211                   270
         EPBD >50 m²               73                  612                   759


         Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.

 © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Impact Assessment EU27


                      Additional annual capital costs compared to EPBD (>1.000)                                             Total annual profit compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a
                   in Billion €/a threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved                                   threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal
                                            thermal standards                                                                                        standards
                                                                     Annual energy cost savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a
                        50                                                                                             60
                                                                        threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal
                                                                                                  standards
                        45
                                                                                                                             50
                        40                                                  120

                        35
                                                                            100                                              40
                        30
Billion €/ a




                                                                                                     Billion €/ a
                                                                             80
                        25                                                                                                   30
                                                    Billion €/ a




                        20                                                   60
                                                                                                                             20
                        15
                                                                             40
                        10
                                                                                                                             10
                                                                             20
                         5

                         0                                                    0                                               0
                                     2010                            2020                 2030
                                                                                       2010                           2020                20102030               2020                   2030
               EPBD >500 m²           1                               6
                                                                   EPBD >500 m²          2 11                          16
                                                                                                                    EPBD >500 m²           1   24                 10                        13
               EPBD >200 m²           1                               9
                                                                   EPBD >200 m²          3 16                          23
                                                                                                                    EPBD >200 m²           2   34                 14                        19
               EPBD >50 m²            3                               24
                                                                   EPBD >50 m²           7 41                       EPBD >50 m²
                                                                                                                       66                  4   94                 43                        53




                   Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.

                © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
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© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Kjell Bettgenhäuser

Ecofys Germany

E: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.com

T: +49 221 270 70-157

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Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)

  • 1. The Built Environment Analysis Model² IEA Building Envelope Technologies and Policies Workshop Paris, November 17th 2011 Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 2. Agenda BEAM² Methodology Reference Scenario for Germany Impact Assessment Scenarios for the EU27 Discussion © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 3. Methodology Key research questions  What energy and CO2-emission reduction potentials in buildings?  in which timeline  to what costs Bottom-up model based on sound physical,  with what limitations technical & economic  Which role play assessments  Financial incentives using the EN ISO 13790 standard and others  Normative restrictions  What is the building sector contribution to climate regimes? © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 4. Methodology  Building-Stock Analysis of Cities, Regions and Countries  Overview on  Energy Demand (Space Heating & Cooling, Hot Water, Electricity)  Primary Energy (incl. Fuel Mix)  CO2-and GHG-Emissions  Investments (Insulation, Heating- and Ventilation Systems)  Running Costs (Energy- and Maintenance Costs)  Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measures  Performance based assessment of current building stock and calculation of various scenarios for the future © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 5. Methodology Input for  Current building stock  Reference buildings (geometries)  Thermal standards in stock (building shell)  Technology (HVAC equipment)  m² of all combinations in stock  Scenario calculation  Retrofit, new building and demolition programs  Definition of systems and efficiency standards  Climate data (HDD resp. temperature & irradiation)  Energy prices and investment costs for measures © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 6. Methodology Differences to other models in the built environment: (i.e. Invert, Ikarus, HEAT) • Approach (top down vs. bottom-up) • Calculation (Performance based vs. component based) • Type of calculation (endogenous optimizations* vs. exogenous calculations) • Sectors covered (residential only vs. all conditioned buildings) • Type of energy consumption (space heating**, hot water, cooling**, auxiliary energy, electrical appliances) • Arithmetics (accounting models vs. calibrated models) • Flexibility (static defined models vs. flexible models) * IEA Energy Technology Model; ** GEA Buildings Model © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 7. Methodology © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 8. Methodology © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 9. Methodology  Implementation in a professional Oracle® database environment © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 10. Methodology © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 11. Reference Scenario Germany 300.000 250.000 200.000 kt/a 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Direct and indirekt CO2-emissions [based on BMWi Energiedaten] Direct CO2-emissions only [based on BMWi Energiedaten] [Kleemann,Hansen, 2005] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating + Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2008] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2-eq, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water Historic development of CO2-/ CO2eq-emissions in underlying studies between 1990 and 2010. Not climate corrected. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 12. Reference Scenario Germany 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Energy advise for private consumers Environmental Label "Blue Angel" (Umweltzeichen "Blauer Engel") Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1978/82 BMU Programme for the Financing of Demonstration Projects Ordinance on Heat Consumption Metering (Heizkostenverordnung) Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1982 DtA Environmental Finance Programme (DtA-Umweltprogramm) KfW Environmental Protection Programme (KfW-Umweltprogramm) Environmental Debt Guarantee Programme (Umweltschutzbürgschaftsprogramm) Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung) Housing modernisation programme for the new Federal states (Wohnraum-Modernisierungsprogramm neue Bundesländer) On-site energy advice (Vor-Ort-Beratung) Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung) “100-million-DM programme” for renewables Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1994 Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1994 Voluntary agreement with German industry I (Erklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft zur Klimavorsorge I) ERP Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Programme (ERP-Umwelt- und Energiesparprogramm) Ecological Bonus Programme for owner-occupied homes KfW CO2 Reduction Programme (KfW-Programm zur CO2-Minderung) ECO Managment and Audit Scheme (EMAS) Energy Consumption Labelling Ordinance (Energieverbrauchskennzeichnungsverordnung) 100 000 Roofs Solar Power Programme (100 000-Dächer-Solarstrom-Programm) Ordinance on Maximum Energy Consumption (Energieverbrauchshöchstwerteverordnung) Ecological Tax Reform (Ökologische Steuerreform) Market Incentive Programme for Renewable Energies (Marktanreizprogramm für erneuerbare Energien) Voluntary agreement with German industry II German Energy Agency (Deutsche Energie-Agentur – dena) KfW CO2 Building Rehabilitation Programme (KfW-CO2-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm) Voluntary Agreement on CHP (Selbstverpflichtung der Wirtschaft zur Förderung der KWK) Energy Savings Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung - EnEV) Energy Efficiency Campaign (Initiative EnergieEffizienz) Heat Power Cogeneration Act (Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetz) KfW Housing Modernisation Programme 2003 Legend Act on the Further Development of the Ecological Tax Reform KfW Programme Ecological Construction Measure-effects in underlying studies quantified KfW Programme Housing Modernisation Measure-effects in underlying studies not quantified Energy certificates for buildings Special fund for energy efficiency in SME's Measure in force Eco-Design of Energy-using Products Smart metering CO2-mitigating measures in the German building sector between 1990 and 2010 in chronological order. Source: Mure II database © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 13. Reference Scenario Germany Quantification of CO2-emission reductions in 2010 [Mt CO2/a]. Future retrofit- and new-building rates. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 14. Reference Scenario Germany 300.000 250.000 200.000 kt/a 150.000 -40% Emission Saving Target 100.000 50.000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only "-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0% CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010 from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates (1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 15. Impact Assessment EU27 Useful floor area in 2005 in mio m² 12.000 CO2 Emissions from space heating in 2005 in Mt/a 10.000 500 450 8.000 400 mio m² 350 6.000 300 Mt/a 250 4.000 200 150 2.000 100 50 0 Non-res Non-res Non-res MFH small 0 (200- MFH medium MFH large RH (50-200 m²) building (200- building (500- building (>1000 Non-res Non-res Non-res 500 m²) RH (50-200m²) MFH small (500-1000 (>1000 m²) MFH medium MFH large 500m²) 1000m²) buildingm²) (200- building (500- building m²) (200-500 m²) (500-1000 m²) (>1000 m²) 500m²) 1000m²) (>1000 m²) Floor area 10.721 2.061 1.730 2.373 1.244 1.091 4.353 CO2-emissions 467 47 38 61 49 41 170 Areas residential CO2non-residential buildings in the EU27 in 2005 non-residential buildings in the EU27 in and -emissions from space heating, residential and 2005 Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 16. Impact Assessment EU27 EU15 Eastern EU New building rate 1% 1% Demolition rate 0,5% 0,5% Retrofit rate of buildings not affected by the current EPBD 0,7% 0,4% Retrofit rate of buildings affected by the current EPBD 1,8% 1,0% Development rates of the EU27 building stock & Scenario Description Original EPBD >1000 m² Original EPBD as from 2006 with 1.000 m² threshold EPBD >500 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 500 m² as from 2009 Scenario Description EPBD >200 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 200 m² as from 2009 EPBD >500 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate EPBD >50 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 50 m² as from 2009 EPBD >200 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate Scenarios threshold options Scenario Description EPBD >50 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate EPBD >500 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards Scenarios high retrofit rate energy EPBD >200 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards energy EPBD >50 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards energy Scenarios improved thermal standards Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 17. Impact Assessment EU27 Endenergy EU-27 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 TWh/a 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 year EU27-EPBD (>1000) EU27-EPBD(>500) EU27-EPBD(>200) EU27-EPBD (>50) EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit, improved thermal standards Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 18. Impact Assessment EU27 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a threshold already partially abolished threshold already partially abolished 900 200 800 180 700 160 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a 140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a 600 threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit 120threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit TWh/ a 500 Mt/ a 100 400 900 200 80 300 800 180 60 200 160 700 40 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a 140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a 100 600 20 threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved 120 TWh/ a 0 0 Mt/ a 500 2010 thermal standards 2020 2030 2010 thermal standards2020 2030 100 400 EPBD >500 m² 3 33 37 EPBD >500 m² 80 1 8 9 900 EPBD >200 m² 6 63 66 200 EPBD >200 m² 1 14 15 300 60 EPBD >50 m² 23 230 246 EPBD >50 180 m² 5 51 55 200800 40 160 100700 20 140 0 0600 120 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 Mt/ a EPBD >500 m² 3 25 27 TWh/ a 500 EPBD >500 m² 13 104 115 100 EPBD >200 m² 20 156 168 EPBD >200 m² 5 36 39 80 EPBD >50 m²400 56 475 498 EPBD >50 m² 13 108 112 60 300 40 200 20 100 0 2010 2020 2030 0 EPBD >500 m² 5 35 46 2010 2020 2030 EPBD >200 m² 7 50 63 EPBD >500 m² 22 148 194 EPBD >50 m² 17 139 171 EPBD >200 m² 30 211 270 EPBD >50 m² 73 612 759 Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 19. Impact Assessment EU27 Additional annual capital costs compared to EPBD (>1.000) Total annual profit compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a in Billion €/a threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal thermal standards standards Annual energy cost savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a 50 60 threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal standards 45 50 40 120 35 100 40 30 Billion €/ a Billion €/ a 80 25 30 Billion €/ a 20 60 20 15 40 10 10 20 5 0 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 20102030 2020 2030 EPBD >500 m² 1 6 EPBD >500 m² 2 11 16 EPBD >500 m² 1 24 10 13 EPBD >200 m² 1 9 EPBD >200 m² 3 16 23 EPBD >200 m² 2 34 14 19 EPBD >50 m² 3 24 EPBD >50 m² 7 41 EPBD >50 m² 66 4 94 43 53 Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 20. Successfully applied for… © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 21. Kjell Bettgenhäuser Ecofys Germany E: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.com T: +49 221 270 70-157