Day 3 Schedule R02.pdf

1
Project Management
Day (3)
1
Dr Mohamed Elfarran

Course Outline
Day 1: Introduction + Project Integration Management.
Day 2: Project Scope Management.
Day 3: Project Schedule Management.
Day 4: Project Cost Management.
Day 5: Project Risk Management.
Day 6: Scrum.
Day 7: Final Presentation Day!
Dr Mohamed Elfarran
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Project Schedule Management
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Project Schedule Management includes the processes
required to manage the timely completion of the
project.
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Processes
Orientation
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Processes
Orientation
Simply !!!

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Processes Orientation
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Planning
6.1 Plan
schedule
Management
6.2 Define
Activities
6.3
Sequence
Activities
6.4 Estimate
Activity
Resources
6.5 Estimate
Activity
Durations
6.5 Develop
Schedule
Controlling
• 6.6 Schedule
Control

Plan Schedule Management
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6.1

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Plan Schedule Management
Plan schedule management is the process of Establishing :
● The Policies,
● Procedures,
● And Documentation For Planning,
● Developing,
● Managing,
● Executing,
● and controlling the project schedule.
The key benefit of this process is that it provides guidance and
direction on how the project schedule will be managed throughout
the project.
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6.1

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Plan schedule management
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6.1

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Plan Schedule Management: Output
Schedule management plan can establish the following:
‐ SELECT Project schedule model development (Tools – Methodologies)
‐ CHOOSE Release and iteration length
‐ DEFINE Level of accuracy
‐ WHAT Unit of measure (Hours – Days – Weeks)
‐ Organizational procedures links (with WBS – Scope - …)
‐ Project schedule model maintenance
‐ Control thresholds
‐ WHAT Rules of performance measurement
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6.1

Define Activities
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6.2

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Define activities
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Define Activities Is the process of identifying and documenting the specific
actions to be performed to produce the project deliverables. The key benefit
of this process is that it decomposed work package into schedule activity
that provide a basis for estimating, scheduling, executing, and monitoring
and controlling the project works.
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK®
Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Page 149.
6.2

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Define
Activities
Data Flow
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6.2
WBS vs
Activities !!

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Define Activities
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6.2

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Define activities: Tools & Tech.
• Decomposition (Direct Method)
Dividing and subdividing project scope and project deliverables into smaller,
more manageable parts.
• Rolling wave planning (SCRUM + AGILE……etc)
Rolling wave planning is an iterative planning technique in which the work to be
accomplished in the near term is planned in detail, while work further in the
future is planned at high level. It is a form of progressive elaboration applicable
to work package and planning package.
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6.2

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Define Activities: Outputs
• Activity List
Includes the schedule activities required on the project.
• Activity Attributes
Includes the unique activity identifier (ID), WBS (ID), and activity
label or name. When completed,
They may includes activity description, predecessor activities,
successor activities, logical relationship, leads and lags, resource
requirements, imposed dates, constraints and assumptions.
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6.2

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Define Activities: Outputs
• Milestone list
Milestone is a significant point or event in a project.
A milestone list identifies all project milestones and indicates whether the
milestone is mandatory, such as those required by the contract, or optional,
such as those based on historical information. Milestones have zero duration.
• Change Request
Once the project has been baseline, the progressive elaboration of deliverables
into activities may revel work that was not initially part of the project baseline.
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6.2

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● Choose ur Method
● Activity List
● Activity Attributes
● Milestone list
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Sequence Activities
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6.3

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Sequence Activities
Sequence Activities is the process of identifying and documenting the
relationships among the project activities.
The key benefit of this process is that it defines the logical sequence of the
work to obtain the greatest efficiency given all project constraints.
Every activity and milestone except the first and the last are connected to at
least one predecessor and one successor.
Sequencing can be performed by using project management software or by
using manual technique.
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6.3

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Sequence
Activities
Data Flow
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Sequence Activities
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6.3

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Sequence activities: Tools & Tech.
1-Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)
○ This is a method of constructing a project network diagram.
○ This technique is also called activity-on-node (AON) and is the method used
by most project management software packages.
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A
Begin END
E
D
C
F
B
6.3

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Sample PDM Network Diagram
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Logical relationships
Finish-To-Start
Start-To Start
Finish-To-Finish
Start-To-Finish
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Predecessor Successor
Activity A
Activity A
Activity B
Activity B
Activity A Activity B
Activity A
Activity B
6.3

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Sequence activities
2-Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
• This method of constructing a project network diagram is also called Activity-
on-Arrow (AOA) and, although less prevalent than PDM,
• The dummy ensures correct
precedent relationships
(the dashed line)
• Dummies have 0 effort
• Only Finished to Starts
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F
C
E
B
D
A
Begin
Finished
6.3

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• Tool: Dependency determination
‐ Mandatory dependencies (Hard Logic)
Are those that are legally or contractual required or inherent in the
nature of the work. They often involve physical limitations.
‐ Discretionary dependencies (Soft Logic )
Are established based on knowledge of the best practices.
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6.3

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‐ External dependencies
Are those that involve a relationship between project activities and
non-project activities, Are usually outside of the project team’s
control.
‐ Internal dependencies
Are those that involve a precedence relationship between project
activities are generally inside the project team’s control.
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6.3

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Sequence Activities: Tools & Tech.
• Leads and lags
Finished to start
- Activity (A) must finish before (B) can start
Finished to start (FS + 3wks lag)
- Activity (A) Must be finished for 3 weeks before (B) can start
- The start of activity (B) lags the finish of (A) by 3 week
- The finish of A leads the start of B by 3 weeks
Finished to start (FS - 3wks lag)
- Activity (B) can start three weeks prior to the finish of (A) .
- The start of activity (B) leads the projected finish of (A) by 3 weeks
- The finish of (A) lags the start of (B) by 3 weeks
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1 3 4 5 6 7 1
0
9
8
2
A (du = 4)
B (du=3)
A (du = 4)
B (du=3)
FS 0
FS+3
A (du = 4)
B (du=3)
FS-3
6.3

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Sequence Activities: Outputs
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PMP - Project Time facebook.co
1. Project Schedule Network Diagrams
2. Project Document Updates

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● Build your Sequence
● Determine Dependency
● Schedule Network Diagrams
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● Schedule Network
Diagrams
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Estimate Activities Resources
6.4

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Estimate Activity Resources
● Estimate the type and quantities of material, human resources,
equipment, or supplied required to perform each activity.
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PMP - Project
Time

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Estimate Activity Resources
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PMP - Project
Time

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Sequence
Activities
Data Flow

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Estimate Activity Resources: T & T
Estimate Activity Resources : Tools & Tech
1. Expert Judgment
2. Alternatives Analysis
3. Published Estimating Data
4. Bottom-up Estimation
5. Project Management Software
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PMP - Project
Time

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● Build Your Resources
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Diagrams
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Estimate Activities Durations
6.4

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Estimate Activity Durations
The process of estimating the number of the work periods needed to
complete individual activities with estimated resources.
The key benefit of this process is that it provide the amount of time
each activity will take to complete.
The duration estimate is progressively elaborated, and the process
considers the quality and availability of the input data.
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6.4

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6.4

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Estimate
Activity
Durations
Data Flow

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Estimate Activity Durations: Tools & Tech.
1. Analogous Estimating (Top-Down estimating)
‐ It is a technique for estimating the duration and the cost of an activity
using historical data from similar activity or project.
‐ It is frequently used to estimate project duration when there is a
limited amount of detailed information about the project (e.g., in the
early phases)
‐ Less costly, and time consuming than other techniques, but generally
less accurate.
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6.4

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2. Parametric Estimating
‐ Determined by multiplying the quantity of work to be performed by the productivity rate
or labor hours / unit work (i.e., meter of cables, tons of steel, number of drawings, etc.)
‐ Can produce higher levels of accuracy depending on the sophistication and data built
into the model.
Example:
Expected Qty. for Activity A: 10 units
Productivity unit rate: 2 day / unit
Total duration: 20 days
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6.4

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Estimating Activity Resources
● Before estimating activity durations, you must have a good idea of the
quantity and type of resources that will be assigned to each activity;
resources are people, equipment, and materials
● Consider important issues in estimating resources
○ How difficult will it be to do specific activities on this project?
○ What is the organization’s history in doing similar activities?
○ Are the required resources available?
● Duration includes the actual amount of time worked on an activity plus
elapsed time
● Effort is the number of workdays or work hours required to complete a task
○ Effort does not normally equal duration
People doing the work should help create estimates, and an expert should
review them
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3. Three point Estimating
● The Optimistic Time (O)
Is the minimum time an activity could take (the situation, where every
thing goes well)
● The Most Likely Time (M)
Is the normal time to complete the job. It is the time would occur most
frequently if the activity could be repeated.
● The Pessimistic Time (P)
Is the maximum time an activity could take (the situation, where bad
luck is encountered at every step)
● Expected Time = (O+ 4*M +P) /6
● Standard Deviation = (P – O) / 6
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Dr Mohamed Elfarran
Most Likely
Expected
Time
Pessimisti
c
Optimist
ic
Shorter Longe
r
Probability
of
Occurrence
Higher
Lower
6.4

Variance
(P – O)
6
Expected
duration
(O+ 4*M +P)
6
Pessimistic
Most likely
Optimistic
Activity
0.44
4
6
4
2
A
0.44
5
7
5
3
B
1
7
10
7
4
C
0.11
5
6
5
4
D
Expected Project duration = 14
standard deviation = 0.44 + 0.44 + 0.11 = 1.00 Day
B
D
C
A
2
Standard deviation
6.4

Normal distribution
σ = 1
µ = 14
(µ - 3σ) to (µ + 3σ) 17
11 99.73%
50%
16
12 95.46%
(µ - 2σ) to (µ + 2σ)
13 15 68.26%
(µ - σ) to (µ + σ)
The Standard Deviation tells you how unsure the estimate is
6.4

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Diagrams
● Estimate your Durations
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Develop Schedule
Develop Schedule is the process of analyzing activity sequences,
durations, resource requirements, and schedule constraints to
Create The Schedule Model for project execution, monitoring and
controlling.
Developing an acceptable project schedule is an iterative process.
Schedule model is used to determine the planned start and finish dates
for project activities and milestones.
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6.5

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Develop
Schedule
Data Flow

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6.5

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Develop Schedule
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6.5

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Develop Schedule Tools & Tech.
1. Critical Path Method (CPM)
Is used to estimate the minimum project duration and determine the amount of
schedule flexibility.
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A
START END
E
D
B
6.5

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Develop Schedule
Exercise
1.What is the critical path?
2. How many days can activity F slip without extending the project end date?
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G, 2
F, 3
B, 4
E,4
A, 3
C, 8 D, 1
6.5

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Develop Schedule
1. The critical path CG
2. Activity F can slip 3 days without extending the project end date
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G, 2
F, 3
B, 4
E,4
A, 3
C, 8 D, 1
6.5

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Develop Schedule, Tools & Tech.
2. Resource optimization techniques
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Resource
Usage
Resource Histogram
6.5

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Develop Schedule , Tools & Tech.
3. Data Analysis
‐ What-if scenario analysis
Is the process of evaluating scenarios in order to predict their effect, positive or
negative, on project objectives.
‐ Simulation
Simulation models the combined effects of individual project risk
and other sources of uncertainty to evaluate their potential impact
on achieving project objectives.
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6.5

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Develop Schedule , Tools & Tech.
5. Schedule Compression
Shortens or accelerate the schedule duration without reduce the project scope in order to
meet schedule constraints, imposed dates, or other schedule objectives.
‐ Crashing: shorten the schedule duration for the least incremental cost by adding
resources, and It may result in increased risk and /or cost.
‐ Fast tracking: activities or phases normally done in sequences are performed in
parallel for at least a portion of their duration. Fast tracking often results in rework and
increased risk. It may also increase project costs.
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6.5

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Develop Schedule
Crashing Cost : Exercise
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Crash
cost/day
Crash
cost $
Normal
cost $
Crash
duration
Normal duration
Activity
1000
8000
6000
2
4
A
750
5750
5000
4
5
B
500
8500
8000
6
7
C
2000
8000
6000
4
5
D
B
D
C
A
6.5

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Develop Schedule , Outputs
• Schedule Baseline
Is the approved version of a schedule model that can be changed
only through formal change control procedures and used as basis for
comparison to actual results.
- Bar charts (Gantt charts)
- Milestone charts
- Project schedule network diagram
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6.5

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● Estimate your
Durations
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Control Schedule
ed Elfarran
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Control Schedule
Control Schedule
Is the process of monitoring the status of the project to update the project
schedule and managing changes to the schedule baseline.
The key benefit of this process is that the schedule baseline is maintained
throughout the project.
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*This definition is taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of
Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2017.
Dr Mohamed Elfarran

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