Uno sguardo al futuro del DM da Weening & Partners

1. Direct Mail: The Future is still bright?
UPU Direct Mail Advisory Board
Aad Weening
Weening & Partners
Berne, 22 January 2008

2. AGENDA
Distance Selling
On Line Issues
Trends in Mail
Challenges and
Opportunities

3. Quote
Lies
Damn Lies
Statistics!!
Mark Twain

4. SALES compared: USA – Japan - Europe
TOTAL
127 144 24 263 27 326
17 20
79 106
44 51
160 193
66 73
1995 2000 2005 2006
In billion euro USA Europe Japan

5. U
SA
Ja
641
pa
Eu n
ro 200
W pe
es
t
155
Ea E u
st ro
Eu pe
ro
261
pe
13
G
er UK
m
715
an
y
It
320
al
R y
us
si
a
12 7
Per Capita Distance Selling

6. ON-Line %
78.9 76.4
66
60.5 58.6
2006
USA Europe UK NL France

7. PENETRATION......
differs from
country to
country, due to
consumer
mentality
retail network
performance
Post
maturity internet
legislation

8. Leaders B2C 2001 - 2006
13.2 In billion €
Quelle: €4.2
Neckermann: €1.3
9.3
8.5
7.8
5.5
4.8 4.8
2001
4.4 4.5
3.8 2006
3.3 2.9
2.2
0.8
o
ts
m
on
y
hD
ay
ne
tt
N
ca
eB
az
O
S
u/
en
ed
LW
m
Q
P
A
R
JC

9. TREND
Mail Order
Distance Selling
Multi Channel Retail

10. Multi-Channel experience

11. Multi - channel approach
Company
Ordering channels Marketing channels
Internet Live inbound Internet Catalogues
Interactive Mass /
Paper order Live
voice E-mail E-mail Direct
form outbound
response marketing
Customers
Internet: a marketing and ordering channel

12. Benefits of Adopting a Multi-Channel
Strategy
Customer Retailer
Improved relation
More Choice
Reduced costs
Convenience
Improved loyalty
Improved Service Increased
spend/penetration
Enhanced brand Increased
experience sales/profit

13. Trends in Distance Selling
Internet is becoming the
dominating channel
The traditional « big
book » has come to its
end (?)
Instead magazine-like
guides to come closer to
the (internet) customer
Focus on consumer
confidence

14. Confirmed Trend: Integration
Overall, the KarstadtQuelle
portals benefited particularly The outdoor apparel and gear
strongly from the close maker mails more than 200
interrelation of stationary, million catalogs per year. L.L.
catalogue and Internet Bean's library includes about 10
distribution. specialty catalogs offering
For example, 6 percent of products in categories such as
purchases in a Karstadt children's, fly-fishing, outerwear,
department store are triggered sportswear, housewares,
by karstadt.de. footwear, etc.etc.
Quelle too realized strong multi- L.L. Bean also operates
channel effects. a dozen retail stores and about
The Quelle catalogue generated 15 factory outlets throughout the
40 percent of orders on quelle.de. Northeast. It also sells online
Conversely, the online shop through English- and Japanese-
generated 28 percent of orders language Web sites.
from the Quelle catalogue.

15. Trends on the Internet
Communities and Platforms (Web 2.0)
Microsoft, Amazon, eBay, Google, Yahoo etc.
Traditional Retailers and Distance Sellers
Niche Players offering web-adapted services

16. EXAMPLE

17. eBay and traditional...

18. Eurostar and the Da Vinci Code
An online competition
to win the ultimate prize
including $ 200.000
worth of free Eurostart
travel
The integration comes
from the books, the film
and the digital activities
Eurostar bookings went
up 15% since the
campaign and generated
2 million game plays

19. bol.com
Digitalized e-
magazine
Full of information,
sound, interviews,
spoken information
etc.
Uses all media: print,
sound, picture etc.

21. Anttilla Mail Order - Finland
Anttila is a leading
mailorder company,
Operating in Finland,
Estonia and Latvia
Loyalty club to increase
brandawareness and to
gain new customers
Campaigns generated
high revenues, catalogue
Requests and synergies
between the channels

22. E-shoppers turn to catalogue
Most British home
shoppers (80%) now
report browsing
through printed
catalogues before
ordering online,
according to research
from Experian, which
found that the home
shopping market is
home to a growing
number of brands that
have integrated their
offline catalogue
marketing with online
sales features.
(Experian August 2007)

23. Example: Corendon
Corendon started as a lowcost airline

24. N
or
t h
Am
W er
ic
es a
tE
71
ur
op
Au e
57
st
Ea ra
lia
st
57
Eu
So ro
ut pe
h
Am
24
W er
or ic
ld a
Av
22
er
M ag
e
id
dl
e
19
Ea
st
17
As
ia
12
Af
ri
Internet Access Nov 2007
ca
5
Source: Internetworldstats

25. ONLINE Issues
Security and Confidence:
-the offer must be truthful
-delivery must be on time
-secure payment
-secure data
-trustscheme
-spam
EU: only 6% cross-border
eBay: 80 mln. active users

26. TREND
The number of Europeans shopping online
has increased with 37% over the last two
years
The next 5 years they will grow from 100
million to 174 million
Overall e-commerce in Europe will grow to
$407 billion in 2011 from $133 billion in
2006
Main products: travel, clothing, media,
white goods, electronics, events tickets,
food, DIY
(Forrester Research and eMarketer)
Internet is rapidly becoming the leading
channel (according to the maturity of
internet)

27. Delivery is vital!
The Daily Mail
24 December 2007

28. Secure Payment is vital
Initiative of
PayDutch Group
and TNT Post in the
Netherlands and
Belgium
PayDutch is the go-
between between
Customer and
Online Supplier

29. POSTAL SERVICES
Postal Services remain
of the utmost
importance in spite of
or rather thanks to the
growing importance of
the Internet:
At the front end:
Catalogues and
mailings
At the back end:
parcels

30. Trends
No overall transfer
between paper and
electronic mailings as
both continue to grow
Companies are able to
better target their
mailings and thereby
reduce mail volumes
Internet players are
using traditional mail
(eBay and others)
Logistics and delivery
remain vital
(source, FEVAD, USDMA and others)

31. France: Development of catalogues
and mailings
(in million items)
4750
4601 No transfer between
paper and electronic
mailings as both
continue to grow
4370 4361
4324
Companies are able to
better target their
mailings and thereby
reduce mail volumes
00
01
02
03
04
SOURCE: FEVAD
20
20
20
20
20

32. Letter Post per capita
68.3 67.7 66.7
2004 2005 2006

33. Number of Parcels per 1000
inhabitants
924 947
854
2004 2005 2006

34. Annual 5 th
World Postal Survey
2007
Courtesy: E-biss Solutions

35. Q: Your volume of domestic
letter mail will...
Grow 42%
45
42%
40 34% 35%
35 30%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

36. Q: Your volume of direct
mail will...
grow same decline
2007
65 10 25
% % %
2006
68 22 10
% % %
78 17
2005 5%
% %

37. Q: Your volume of Courier &
Express will...
Your expectations in %?
68
65
2006
27 2007
22
8 10
grow same decline

38. Overall, your confidence for the
future of your organisation is...
Confidence
High explosion
70 63%
60
59%
47% 51%
50 43%
40
30
20
10
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

39. Future of Direct Mail
Source: Winterberry

40. The inherent strengths of mail
Personal
Universal
Tailored
Targeted
Direct
Flexible & Creative
Measurable
Portable
Physical
Complementary
UK – Source DMIS UK

41. DM Germany (billion euro)
Tendencies:
Internet higher
Mail slightly lower 32 32 32.5
31.2
30.8
29
21.5 21.2
20.3
18.9
17.1
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

42. Challenges and Opportunities
Although Internet
expenditures are rapidly
rising, there is still an
opportunity for direct mail
Go into internet solutions
(PayDutch, certifications)
Access to markets
Promote DM in general in
order to create market
Growing competition
Slowing economy
substitution

43. Some examples

44. Conclusion
If you believe in
the future,
the future
will be bright!