Direct Mail: The Future is still bright?
         UPU Direct Mail Advisory Board


                Aad Weening
           ...
AGENDA


   Distance Selling
   On Line Issues
   Trends in Mail
   Challenges and
   Opportunities
Quote



             Lies
             Damn Lies
             Statistics!!


Mark Twain
SALES compared: USA – Japan - Europe

TOTAL

                127                   144               24    263   27     32...
U
            SA
         Ja
                                         641




           pa
        Eu n
          ro     ...
ON-Line %

                  78.9   76.4

                                  66
60.5    58.6


                            ...
PENETRATION......

          differs from
          country to
          country, due to
            consumer
            ...
Leaders B2C 2001 - 2006
  13.2                                                                             In billion €

 ...
TREND

    Mail Order


 Distance Selling


Multi Channel Retail
Multi-Channel experience
Multi - channel approach

                                       Company

              Ordering channels                 ...
Benefits of Adopting a Multi-Channel
              Strategy


   Customer               Retailer

                      Im...
Trends in Distance Selling


              Internet is becoming the
              dominating channel
              The tra...
Confirmed Trend: Integration

Overall, the KarstadtQuelle
portals benefited particularly       The outdoor apparel and gea...
Trends on the Internet

  Communities and Platforms (Web 2.0)



Microsoft, Amazon, eBay, Google, Yahoo etc.



 Tradition...
EXAMPLE
eBay and traditional...
Eurostar and the Da Vinci Code

   An online competition
  to win the ultimate prize
  including $ 200.000
  worth of free...
bol.com

Digitalized e-
magazine
Full of information,
sound, interviews,
spoken information
etc.
Uses all media: print,
so...
Anttilla Mail Order - Finland


Anttila is a leading
mailorder company,
Operating in Finland,
Estonia and Latvia

Loyalty ...
E-shoppers turn to catalogue
                 Most British home
                 shoppers (80%) now
                 repor...
Example: Corendon




Corendon started as a lowcost airline
N
    or
       t   h
        Am
  W          er
                ic
     es            a
        tE
                      ...
ONLINE Issues
      Security and Confidence:
      -the offer must be truthful
      -delivery must be on time
      -secu...
TREND
  The number of Europeans shopping online
  has increased with 37% over the last two
  years
  The next 5 years they...
Delivery is vital!



         The Daily Mail
         24 December 2007
Secure Payment is vital
               Initiative of
               PayDutch Group
               and TNT Post in the
    ...
POSTAL SERVICES

        Postal Services remain
        of the utmost
        importance in spite of
        or rather tha...
Trends
      No overall transfer
      between paper and
      electronic mailings as
      both continue to grow
      Co...
France: Development of catalogues
and mailings
(in million items)

                            4750


                    ...
Letter Post per capita




                68.3   67.7   66.7




                2004   2005   2006
Number of Parcels per 1000
      inhabitants




                           924    947
                    854




       ...
Annual    5 th

          World Postal Survey
                 2007
Courtesy: E-biss Solutions
Q: Your volume of domestic
letter mail will...

 Grow                     42%
45
            42%
40                 34%   ...
Q: Your volume of direct
mail will...
        grow   same   decline


 2007
         65     10      25
         %      %  ...
Q: Your volume of Courier &
      Express will...
Your expectations in %?
       68
            65



                    ...
Overall, your confidence for the
 future of your organisation is...
                          Confidence
 High            ...
Future of Direct Mail




Source: Winterberry
The inherent strengths of mail


                      Personal
                      Universal
                      Tail...
DM Germany (billion euro)
Tendencies:
 Internet higher
 Mail slightly lower                                       32      ...
Challenges and Opportunities

                Although Internet
                expenditures are rapidly
                r...
Some examples
Conclusion

If you believe in
the future,
the future
will be bright!
Direct  Mail Future Bright
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Direct Mail Future Bright

  1. 1. Direct Mail: The Future is still bright? UPU Direct Mail Advisory Board Aad Weening Weening & Partners Berne, 22 January 2008
  2. 2. AGENDA Distance Selling On Line Issues Trends in Mail Challenges and Opportunities
  3. 3. Quote Lies Damn Lies Statistics!! Mark Twain
  4. 4. SALES compared: USA – Japan - Europe TOTAL 127 144 24 263 27 326 17 20 79 106 44 51 160 193 66 73 1995 2000 2005 2006 In billion euro USA Europe Japan
  5. 5. U SA Ja 641 pa Eu n ro 200 W pe es t 155 Ea E u st ro Eu pe ro 261 pe 13 G er UK m 715 an y It 320 al R y us si a 12 7 Per Capita Distance Selling
  6. 6. ON-Line % 78.9 76.4 66 60.5 58.6 2006 USA Europe UK NL France
  7. 7. PENETRATION...... differs from country to country, due to consumer mentality retail network performance Post maturity internet legislation
  8. 8. Leaders B2C 2001 - 2006 13.2 In billion € Quelle: €4.2 Neckermann: €1.3 9.3 8.5 7.8 5.5 4.8 4.8 2001 4.4 4.5 3.8 2006 3.3 2.9 2.2 0.8 o ts m on y hD ay ne tt N ca eB az O S u/ en ed LW m Q P A R JC
  9. 9. TREND Mail Order Distance Selling Multi Channel Retail
  10. 10. Multi-Channel experience
  11. 11. Multi - channel approach Company Ordering channels Marketing channels Internet Live inbound Internet Catalogues Interactive Mass / Paper order Live voice E-mail E-mail Direct form outbound response marketing Customers Internet: a marketing and ordering channel
  12. 12. Benefits of Adopting a Multi-Channel Strategy Customer Retailer Improved relation More Choice Reduced costs Convenience Improved loyalty Improved Service Increased spend/penetration Enhanced brand Increased experience sales/profit
  13. 13. Trends in Distance Selling Internet is becoming the dominating channel The traditional « big book » has come to its end (?) Instead magazine-like guides to come closer to the (internet) customer Focus on consumer confidence
  14. 14. Confirmed Trend: Integration Overall, the KarstadtQuelle portals benefited particularly The outdoor apparel and gear strongly from the close maker mails more than 200 interrelation of stationary, million catalogs per year. L.L. catalogue and Internet Bean's library includes about 10 distribution. specialty catalogs offering For example, 6 percent of products in categories such as purchases in a Karstadt children's, fly-fishing, outerwear, department store are triggered sportswear, housewares, by karstadt.de. footwear, etc.etc. Quelle too realized strong multi- L.L. Bean also operates channel effects. a dozen retail stores and about The Quelle catalogue generated 15 factory outlets throughout the 40 percent of orders on quelle.de. Northeast. It also sells online Conversely, the online shop through English- and Japanese- generated 28 percent of orders language Web sites. from the Quelle catalogue.
  15. 15. Trends on the Internet Communities and Platforms (Web 2.0) Microsoft, Amazon, eBay, Google, Yahoo etc. Traditional Retailers and Distance Sellers Niche Players offering web-adapted services
  16. 16. EXAMPLE
  17. 17. eBay and traditional...
  18. 18. Eurostar and the Da Vinci Code An online competition to win the ultimate prize including $ 200.000 worth of free Eurostart travel The integration comes from the books, the film and the digital activities Eurostar bookings went up 15% since the campaign and generated 2 million game plays
  19. 19. bol.com Digitalized e- magazine Full of information, sound, interviews, spoken information etc. Uses all media: print, sound, picture etc.
  20. 20. Anttilla Mail Order - Finland Anttila is a leading mailorder company, Operating in Finland, Estonia and Latvia Loyalty club to increase brandawareness and to gain new customers Campaigns generated high revenues, catalogue Requests and synergies between the channels
  21. 21. E-shoppers turn to catalogue Most British home shoppers (80%) now report browsing through printed catalogues before ordering online, according to research from Experian, which found that the home shopping market is home to a growing number of brands that have integrated their offline catalogue marketing with online sales features. (Experian August 2007)
  22. 22. Example: Corendon Corendon started as a lowcost airline
  23. 23. N or t h Am W er ic es a tE 71 ur op Au e 57 st Ea ra lia st 57 Eu So ro ut pe h Am 24 W er or ic ld a Av 22 er M ag e id dl e 19 Ea st 17 As ia 12 Af ri Internet Access Nov 2007 ca 5 Source: Internetworldstats
  24. 24. ONLINE Issues Security and Confidence: -the offer must be truthful -delivery must be on time -secure payment -secure data -trustscheme -spam EU: only 6% cross-border eBay: 80 mln. active users
  25. 25. TREND The number of Europeans shopping online has increased with 37% over the last two years The next 5 years they will grow from 100 million to 174 million Overall e-commerce in Europe will grow to $407 billion in 2011 from $133 billion in 2006 Main products: travel, clothing, media, white goods, electronics, events tickets, food, DIY (Forrester Research and eMarketer) Internet is rapidly becoming the leading channel (according to the maturity of internet)
  26. 26. Delivery is vital! The Daily Mail 24 December 2007
  27. 27. Secure Payment is vital Initiative of PayDutch Group and TNT Post in the Netherlands and Belgium PayDutch is the go- between between Customer and Online Supplier
  28. 28. POSTAL SERVICES Postal Services remain of the utmost importance in spite of or rather thanks to the growing importance of the Internet: At the front end: Catalogues and mailings At the back end: parcels
  29. 29. Trends No overall transfer between paper and electronic mailings as both continue to grow Companies are able to better target their mailings and thereby reduce mail volumes Internet players are using traditional mail (eBay and others) Logistics and delivery remain vital (source, FEVAD, USDMA and others)
  30. 30. France: Development of catalogues and mailings (in million items) 4750 4601 No transfer between paper and electronic mailings as both continue to grow 4370 4361 4324 Companies are able to better target their mailings and thereby reduce mail volumes 00 01 02 03 04 SOURCE: FEVAD 20 20 20 20 20
  31. 31. Letter Post per capita 68.3 67.7 66.7 2004 2005 2006
  32. 32. Number of Parcels per 1000 inhabitants 924 947 854 2004 2005 2006
  33. 33. Annual 5 th World Postal Survey 2007 Courtesy: E-biss Solutions
  34. 34. Q: Your volume of domestic letter mail will... Grow 42% 45 42% 40 34% 35% 35 30% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  35. 35. Q: Your volume of direct mail will... grow same decline 2007 65 10 25 % % % 2006 68 22 10 % % % 78 17 2005 5% % %
  36. 36. Q: Your volume of Courier & Express will... Your expectations in %? 68 65 2006 27 2007 22 8 10 grow same decline
  37. 37. Overall, your confidence for the future of your organisation is... Confidence High explosion 70 63% 60 59% 47% 51% 50 43% 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  38. 38. Future of Direct Mail Source: Winterberry
  39. 39. The inherent strengths of mail Personal Universal Tailored Targeted Direct Flexible & Creative Measurable Portable Physical Complementary UK – Source DMIS UK
  40. 40. DM Germany (billion euro) Tendencies: Internet higher Mail slightly lower 32 32 32.5 31.2 30.8 29 21.5 21.2 20.3 18.9 17.1 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
  41. 41. Challenges and Opportunities Although Internet expenditures are rapidly rising, there is still an opportunity for direct mail Go into internet solutions (PayDutch, certifications) Access to markets Promote DM in general in order to create market Growing competition Slowing economy substitution
  42. 42. Some examples
  43. 43. Conclusion If you believe in the future, the future will be bright!

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