Silver Inks Webinarfinal

Webinar on the Markets for Silver Inks and
Pastes, 2012-2019
January 5th, 2012
NanoMarkets, LC

© 2012 NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.net

2

About NanoMarkets LC
• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy
and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We
have been covering conventional silver and nanosilver inks and pastes
markets for more than five years.
• Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market
forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides forecasts of silver
inks and pastes in thick film electronics, PV, and emerging printed
electronics (displays, etc.).
• NanoMarkets’ offerings include reports, custom consulting,
seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S.,
with extensive contacts all over the world.

© NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net

3

NanoMarkets’ Recent Reports Related to Silver

• Silver Inks and Pastes 2012
• Nanometals 2012
• Silver Powders and Flakes 2011
• Nanosilver Markets 2011
• Markets for Silver-Based Transparent Conductors 2011
• Silver in Photovoltaics 2010
• Printed Gold: Gold Ink and Paste Markets 2011


4

Silver’s Big Problem…Economics

How can suppliers of printable silver products maintain margins
and market share in a world of persistently high silver prices,
with no end in sight?
•Investment offtake
•Q411 decline not sustainable
Meanwhile, lingering sluggishness in the global economy keeps
industrial demand for silver lower than it might otherwise be

The Bottom Line:
NanoMarkets predicts a decline in global silver inks and paste
consumption…


5

Silver Inks and Pastes 2012-2019 By Application
($ Millions)
$7.6 B
8000 $6.8 B
7000
Traditional Thick Film
6000
Sensors
5000 RFIDs
OLED Lighting
4000
PDPs
3000 Photovoltaics

2000
Two applications
1000
dominate the
0 market!
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year


6
Average Ink and Paste Prices
($/Troy Oz Silver)
~12x
500
450
400
350
300
250 ~3x
200 ~2.4x
150 ~1.7x
100
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year
Average Silver Commodity Price
Average Conventional Silver Ink/Paste Price
Average Nanosilver Ink/Paste Price


7

A Brief History of the Silver Pastes Market

First, a look back at the silver inks and pastes market:

This industry has had a very good run over the last 50 years
• Post WWII electronics
• Computer revolution
• c-Si PV


8

Why Do We Predict a Decline in the Silver Inks
and Pastes Market?
• The two big applications still dominate the market, but will face difficulty
in the next couple of years
– Problems in the PV sector
– Thick film are cost sensitive
– PDPs are in decline
• Alternatives may now have a sustained opportunity to thrive
– High silver prices encourages more substitution away from silver
– Is it finally time for alternatives (copper, aluminum, others) to make a
dent?
And…
• Growth in emerging opportunities not fast enough to make up for losses in
PV market or lack of real growth in thick film


9

Some Good News Amidst the Gloom
• There is no reasonable substitute for silver at this time in most
applications
• Legacy applications (printed circuitry, MS, PCB) are growing along
with global industrialization
• Emerging electronics applications
– Sensors, especially in (bio)medical and ubiquitous electronics
– Flexible electronics and displays
• …deserves some skepticism, but may turn into an
opportunity
• Samsung announced production in 2012 of flexible displays


10

The Market for Silver Inks and Pastes in PV
• 2010 was a banner year, with nearly 1.5x growth over prior year
– Not sustainable
– 2011 and 2012 back down to ~15 % growth
– Recent predictions suggest even lower growth rates, < 8%

• Why?
– Gradual shift in relative share of TFPV compared to c-Si PV
– Shift in silver consumption in c-Si PV back electrodes and for tabbing
– Government support is waning


11

Silver Inks and Paste in PV by
Application 2012-2019
4500 200

4000 180

Addressable Market (Millions m2)
160
3500

140
Value ($ Millions)

3000
120
2500 Value of Printed Silver in TFPV
100
2000 Value of Printed Silver in c-Si PV
80 c-Si Addressable Market
1500
60 TFPV Addressable Market
1000
40

500 20

0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year


12

Legacy Applications: Thick-Film Printed
Electronics
The news is not all bad…
• Global industrialization
• Miniaturization trend
• Few (good) alternatives to silver available


13

What Kinds of Silver Alternatives Exist?
• Conventional carbon pastes
• Copper None of these are very
– Etched convincing alternatives,
unless major improvements
– Printable Cu
are made in performance…
• Aluminum
• Silver-coated metals, etc. For example, we believe that
the alternative printable
• Carbon nanomaterials conductive materials WILL
• Conductive polymers penetrate somewhat, but will
likely maximize at around 8 –
• Nanosilver? 10% of the thick film market.


14

Can Ag Really Be Replaced?
• Silver is the most conductive metal
• It is tempting to offer drop-in replacements as a way to enter
a market, but how often does this work?
• Costs – and risks – of switching an existing production line
over to a new technology are often understated.
– Barriers to entry are high
– Markets are conservative
– Existing materials entrenched


15

Strategies for Silver Paste
Alternatives to Gain Entry
Offer products for new kinds of products and
applications
• Opportunities for:
– Inks and pastes that enable miniaturization
– New inks and pastes for markets not fully formed yet
– Transparent conductors based on Ag
• But keep an eye on the competition:
– Photonically cured Cu and similar
– CNTs and graphene


Will the Nanosilver Revolution Ever Happen?
16

• The bad news:
– Economies of scale
– Murky regulatory environment
– Minimal market pull for printed electronics
• The good news:
– Miniaturization of electronics
– Sustained high silver prices might finally lead to a sustained
opportunity for nanosilver products
– There are clear opportunities for transparent nanosilver coatings that
compete with ITO
• Outside the scope of this report, but provide an outlet for
development products and a revenue stream while printed
electronics develops
• Focus area of NanoMarkets; See other reports


17

Summary of the Opportunities
• Pastes and inks that reduce costs are in demand, and are
necessary to keep out the competition
• Inks and pastes that enable higher resolution printing and
miniaturization
• The PV market is looking especially troublesome in the
coming years, so diversification into other markets will be
necessary
– New applications in displays (?) and lighting
– Sensors and related
• These opportunities will take a rethinking of the marketing
and business development strategies…


18

Jill Simpson
Jill C. Simpson is a Senior Analyst at NanoMarkets. Simpson’s background is in
business development, technical marketing, and commercialization of novel products
in electronic materials, with hands-on experience in the scale up and production of
inherently conductive polymers, coatings and inks, and flexible inorganic EL devices.
She has worked in sales and business development at a major global chemical and
metals firm, and, more recently, in various management roles at a startup electronic
materials and technology development firm.
Simpson’s academic background is as a synthetic organic chemist. She has a Ph.D. in
Chemistry from Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, as well as a bachelor’s
degree in chemistry and a minor in international relations from Cornell University. She
has published research on inherently conductive polymers and on the synthesis of
conformationally-restricted hormone analogs for the investigation of molecular
modeling.

jill.s@nanomarkets.net


19

Contact

NanoMarkets
sales@nanomarkets.net
www.nanomarkets.net
(804) 270-1718


Silver Inks Webinarfinal

More Related Content

What's hot

Similar to Silver Inks Webinarfinal

More from n-tech Research

Silver Inks Webinarfinal