Where eLearning is Coming From
  Preview: eLearning Guild Research
        New Directions Report

       Ellen Wagner and ...
Agenda

• Review emerging technologies likely to impact
  learning, education and training in the next 6 months – 3 yrs
• ...
Multiple Horizons Scanned



                                             eLearning
• Emerging                            ...
Variables Moving
                        the Flags on the Horizon



                                  Vertical Markets
• ...
Resources Used in Scan
                              eLearning                              Learning
             Business...
ELEARNING CURRENT STATUS AND
   ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY

March 2009     Sage Road Solutions, LLC   6
Learning and Technology:
               A Never-Ending Adoption Curve

                         Web 1.0 –                 ...
Not all online experiences are created equally

                             Hybrid/Blended




                          ...
Wainhouse Research Distance Education and
         eLearning Landscape, Nov 2007




March 2009          Sage Road Solutio...
Wainhouse Research Predictions
•   eLearning growth is taking place in three separate segments, in relative order:
      –...
Traditional and Emerging eLearning Markets


  High
                             Rapid eLearning, Saas LMS, LCMS, games an...
Horizons Report, 2008




     Time-to-               Time-to-                     Time-to-
     Adoption: One          Ad...
Horizon Report 2008:
   Trends Affecting Learning Tech Adoption
• The growing use of Web 2.0 and social networking—combine...
Horizons Report, 2009




     Time-to-            Time-to-                    Time-to-
     Adoption: One       Adoption:...
Horizon Report 2009:

• Mobiles: Video, apps, true personal, portable computing
• Cloud computing: large distributed data ...
eLearning Guild Trends, 2008

                         “Working in the             Consumer tech /
  Business conditions
 ...
eLearning Guild Member Technology Use




March 2009      Sage Road Solutions, LLC   17
Stages of eLearning 2.0 Use




March 2009             Sage Road Solutions, LLC   18
Top IT Issues for 2008-9 per EDUCAUSE
  1. Security
  2. Administrative/ERP/Information Systems
  3. Funding IT
  4. Infra...
WHERE ELEARNING IS COMING FROM


March 2009        Sage Road Solutions, LLC   20
Emerging IT Industry Trends
             That Will Affect elearning Practice

                                   Web 2.0

...
Web 2.0 - Social Power
• Social Networks such as Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn
  strengthen interpersonal connections
• Vira...
elearning Guild’s 9 Trends for 2008




March 2009     Sage Road Solutions, LLC   23
Mobility and the Mobile Web
• More wireless devices, more wireless broadband services.
  Apps make the device. Open access...
March 2009   Sage Road Solutions, LLC   25
What do 1.2 billion mobile youth want?




March 2009         Sage Road Solutions, LLC   26
RIAs
• Rich Internet Applications (RIAs) enable the creation
  of user experience (UX) that is more responsive and
  engag...
Example: Google Earth
Software-as-a-Service




March 2009          Sage Road Solutions, LLC   29
When Mobile Meets RIAs:
                Google Latitude




March 2009           Sage Road Solutions, LLC   30
“Working in the Cloud”
Cloud computing is a style of computing whose
  massively scalable and elastic IT capabilities
  ar...
Cloud Computing
                         VIRTUAL INFRASTRUCTURE

             Amazon                      Google          ...
Anticipated IT App Spending 2009




             http://www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?doc_id=173080&f_src=itgazett...
WHEN THE HYPE CYCLE MEETS THE
   INNOVATION ADOPTION CURVE

March 2009      Sage Road Solutions, LLC   34
Leveraging Disruptive Innovations
   Disruptive innovations
   are transformative
   tools, devices, practice
   s

   Gen...
Gartner Hype Cycle




March 2009        Sage Road Solutions, LLC   36
Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation
                    Adoption Curve




March 2009              Sage Road Solutions, LLC   ...
When Hype Cycle Meets the
                     Innovation Adoption Curve
                               Digital Skills
   ...
THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST
                  ellen@sageroadsolutions.com
                         +1.707.933.8471
          ...
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Elg.Ag09.Final

  1. 1. Where eLearning is Coming From Preview: eLearning Guild Research New Directions Report Ellen Wagner and Beth Davis Sage Road Solutions, LLC
  2. 2. Agenda • Review emerging technologies likely to impact learning, education and training in the next 6 months – 3 yrs • Indentify influences from outside the LET world that are accelerating change • Review necessary conditions for sustaining innovation and improving business results March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 2
  3. 3. Multiple Horizons Scanned eLearning • Emerging • Research Innovations • Practices • “Traditional” • Enterprise Guidelines elearning Platforms • Emergent eLearning Technology Learning, Education, Training March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 3
  4. 4. Variables Moving the Flags on the Horizon Vertical Markets • Economic, Financial • Stimulus Conditions • Education • Education Trends • Business Process • Labor/Commerce • Government Operations • DOD, DHS (DoD) Trends • Commercial (e.g. FSI, Manufacturing) Commercial Public Issues Policy March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 4
  5. 5. Resources Used in Scan eLearning Learning Business & IT Education/ Industry Innovation Research Market Research Research Research Wainhouse Gartner eLearning Guild EDUCAUSE Research Research Campus Forrester Bersin & Computing New Media Research Associates Project Consortium Brandon Hall Gartner IDC Sloan Research Research Consortium Jupiter AACE Research Personal Research Dashboard March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 5
  6. 6. ELEARNING CURRENT STATUS AND ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 6
  7. 7. Learning and Technology: A Never-Ending Adoption Curve Web 1.0 – Web 2.0 - Published Participative Digitized Web 3.0 – 3D Media Learning and Web 4.0 – Representative Performance “Everyware” Media Improvement March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 7
  8. 8. Not all online experiences are created equally Hybrid/Blended http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/freedownloads.asp March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 8
  9. 9. Wainhouse Research Distance Education and eLearning Landscape, Nov 2007 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 9
  10. 10. Wainhouse Research Predictions • eLearning growth is taking place in three separate segments, in relative order: – Learning Management, Platforms, Software and Tools – Video for Learning – Interaction • Overall market for LMS platforms and services will grow from $802.8 million in 2007 to $1.5 billion in 2011, at a (CAGR) of 13%. The bulk of this growth will occur in higher education. • The corporate segment of the industry will enter a slow growth period and undergo further consolidation. • There is a greater than 50% probability that many LMS platforms will include real- time audio, web conferencing, Instant Messaging, Presence, and videoconferencing capabilities as a matter of course within two years, and a 95% probability these capabilities are contained within five years. • Hosted and managed services will become the preferred deployment mode for the traditionally CPE-based LMS industry. March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 10
  11. 11. Traditional and Emerging eLearning Markets High Rapid eLearning, Saas LMS, LCMS, games and Growth (100%+) mobile learning are the fastest growing segments Mobile 75% Games 55% LMS/LCMS LMS Sims LCMS (Saas) (traditional) 12% 25% 20% (12%) Rapid Virtual Web 15% Classroom Tools 9% 4% Low Growth Mature Emerging Adapted from Bersin& Associates, 2007 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 11
  12. 12. Horizons Report, 2008 Time-to- Time-to- Time-to- Adoption: One Adoption: Two Adoption: Four Year or Less to Three Years to Five Years • Grassroots Video • Mobile Broadband • Collective Intelligence • Collaboration Webs • Data Mashups • Social Operating Systems March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 12
  13. 13. Horizon Report 2008: Trends Affecting Learning Tech Adoption • The growing use of Web 2.0 and social networking—combined with collective intelligence and mass amateurization*—is gradually but inexorably changing the practice of scholarship. • Access to—and portability of—content is increasing as smaller, more powerful devices are introduced. • Electronic book readers like the Amazon Kindle and web enabled devices like the Apple iPhone and the LG Electronics Voyager make it possible to carry vast amounts of information in a small package. • The gap between students’ perception of technology and that of faculty continues to widen. * The rise of the “Prosumer” and User Generated Content Phemonemnon March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 13
  14. 14. Horizons Report, 2009 Time-to- Time-to- Time-to- Adoption: One Adoption: Two Adoption: Four Year or Less to Three Years to Five Years • Mobiles • Geo Everything • Semantic Aware Apps • Cloud Computing • The personal Web • Smart Objects March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 14
  15. 15. Horizon Report 2009: • Mobiles: Video, apps, true personal, portable computing • Cloud computing: large distributed data farms improve storage and processing power for all • Geo-everything: Location-based tagging • Semantic Web: Context-aware tagging • Smart Objects: objects that recognize their physical location or can connect with other objects or information. March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 15
  16. 16. eLearning Guild Trends, 2008 “Working in the Consumer tech / Business conditions Cloud” UGC for learning Ongoing Expanded access to Video redefinition of wireless broadband elearning Continued blurring Devices with built- Enterprise social of elearning tool in 3G and WiFi networking categories March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 16
  17. 17. eLearning Guild Member Technology Use March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 17
  18. 18. Stages of eLearning 2.0 Use March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 18
  19. 19. Top IT Issues for 2008-9 per EDUCAUSE 1. Security 2. Administrative/ERP/Information Systems 3. Funding IT 4. Infrastructure 5. Identity/Access Management 6. Disaster Recovery / Business Continuity 7. Governance, Organization, and Leadership 8. Change Management 9. E-Learning / Distributed Teaching and Learning 10. Staffing / HR Management / Training http://connect.educause.edu/Library/EDUCAUSE+Review/TopTenITIssues2008/46605 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 19
  20. 20. WHERE ELEARNING IS COMING FROM March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 20
  21. 21. Emerging IT Industry Trends That Will Affect elearning Practice Web 2.0 Working in Mobility the Cloud The RIAs Metaverse March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 21
  22. 22. Web 2.0 - Social Power • Social Networks such as Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn strengthen interpersonal connections • Viral microblog sites such as Twitter and Tweet Deck play host for those who appreciate quot;snackablequot; content. • Social tools like Ning and IntroNetworks make connections actionable • User Generated Content, RSS feeds, blogs, wikis empower the “pro-sumer” • Social book-marking and smart-searching create trust • Podcasting, Life-casting, live-blogging, video and photo- sharing empower creative expression March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 22
  23. 23. elearning Guild’s 9 Trends for 2008 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 23
  24. 24. Mobility and the Mobile Web • More wireless devices, more wireless broadband services. Apps make the device. Open access to run any application on any device anywhere in the world. • The next-gen computer and ultimate social media device: The 3G Smartphone • Sensors and Location Based Services • Web Video, Games, Collaboration • Content or Commerce? The Transactional Side of Mobile • Beyond 3G: LTE and 4G Services • The Internet of Things • The Mobile Web is all about Apps March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 24
  25. 25. March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 25
  26. 26. What do 1.2 billion mobile youth want? March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 26
  27. 27. RIAs • Rich Internet Applications (RIAs) enable the creation of user experience (UX) that is more responsive and engaging than those found in traditional web applications • RIA spans a range of technology alternatives: Flex, Ajax, Silverlight • Based on the premise that a rich productive user experience can be achieved using only standards based technologies built into a modern browser March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 27
  28. 28. Example: Google Earth
  29. 29. Software-as-a-Service March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 29
  30. 30. When Mobile Meets RIAs: Google Latitude March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 30
  31. 31. “Working in the Cloud” Cloud computing is a style of computing whose massively scalable and elastic IT capabilities are provided as a service to external customers using internet technologies. – Platform Makeover – Browsers, Virtualization, Software as a Service (SaaS) – Smart(er) World – Pattern recognizing, real-world data sampling computers will be smarter than we are by 2029 (Kurzweil) March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 31
  32. 32. Cloud Computing VIRTUAL INFRASTRUCTURE Amazon Google Other private “clouds” WEB DEVELOPMENT PLATFORM Google Apps Flex Ajax SIlverlight ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS iPhone SDK AIR March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 32
  33. 33. Anticipated IT App Spending 2009 http://www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?doc_id=173080&f_src=itgazette March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 33
  34. 34. WHEN THE HYPE CYCLE MEETS THE INNOVATION ADOPTION CURVE March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 34
  35. 35. Leveraging Disruptive Innovations Disruptive innovations are transformative tools, devices, practice s Generally slow to be adopted because they are initially less reliable than market leading tools and practices Result in dramatic Clayton M. Christiansen, The Innovator’s Dilemma (1997) Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press change when broad adoption finally does March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 35
  36. 36. Gartner Hype Cycle March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 36
  37. 37. Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation Adoption Curve March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 37
  38. 38. When Hype Cycle Meets the Innovation Adoption Curve Digital Skills Communication &Collaboration E-Learning and Virtual Schools Interest/ Hype Early Adopters Mainstream adoption Number of users March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 38
  39. 39. THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST ellen@sageroadsolutions.com +1.707.933.8471 www.sageroadsolutions.com Skype: ellenwagner1 www.twitter.com/edwsonoma www.elearningroadtrip.typepad.com March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 39

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