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Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST)
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017
2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net
Page | 50
A Global Perspective of Varying Interest Rates in International Markets
Dr. Arijit Maity#
#
Associate Professor, Management Department, Budge Budge Institute of Technology, India. Email: dr.arijitmaity@gmail.com
Article Received: 07 February 2017 Article Accepted: 16 February 2017 Article Published: 21 February 2017
1. INTRODUCTION
The entire interest on an amount lent or borrowed typically
depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the
compounding frequency and the overall length of time over
which it is lent, deposited or borrowed. It is arbitrarily
well-defined, as the proportion of an amount loaned which a
lender charges as interest to the borrower, is typically
articulated as an annual percentage. It is the rate, a bank or
additional lender charges to borrow its money, or the rate a
bank pays its savers for keeping money in an account. Annual
interest rate is the rate over a period of one year. Other interest
rates smear over different periods such as a month or a day,
but they are frequently annualized [4-6].
International interest plays a key role towards their economy,
which has been a regulating measure for the monetary policy
of the economy. The market fluctuations with international
cross currencies vary according to the impact with monetary
policies of their country, and interest rate is one of the fiscal
policy used to regulate the monetary measures of the
economy. The interests with the banks are fixed by the
corresponding central banks to regulate the money flow of the
country [7-9]. Forex, diminutive for the Global Foreign
Exchange Market is the leading single financial market in the
globe. Job Monkey comprises a segment on this theme
because Forex trading could be completed just about
anywhere with an Internet connectivity.
Numerous traders are able to make extra money over and
above what their real-job delivers - occupied from home.
Likewise, called the Currency Exchange, the FOREX is the
financial field where currencies from dissimilar nations are
exchanged for one another (with the corresponding of over 4
trillion dollars shifting hands daily according to the FX
Street). Forex is not a corporal market like the AMEX
(American Stock Exchange) or the NYMEX (New York
Mercantile Exchange) but more of a global network of unified
banks, investments firms, hedge funds, currency traders,
supplementary financial and banking entities. Due to the
absence of a physical exchange, the FOREX market functions
on a full 24-hour time period crossing from one time zone to
alternative zone in all the chief financial centers. There are
three key economic zones that incorporate the Forex market:
Australasia (Australia and Asia), Europe and North America.
This organization permits the participants in the Forex market
to trade at any time of day.
The paper has been organized as follows. An introduction to
interest rate and monetary policies towards international
markets has been entailed in Section I. A detailed literature
review carried out by various authors in the vicinity of this
research work has been discussed in Section II. Volatility on
the basis of fundamental analysis of interest rate has been
discussed in Section III. The volatility on the basis of
fundamental analysis unemployment claims has been
elaborated in Section IV. The inspections and suggestions
about the monetary policy and interest rate have been entailed
in Section V. Finally, Section VI concludes the paper
artistically.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
The research works carried out in [1] analyzed the monetary
policy and its impact with interest rates of Nigeria from
2007-2012. The data has been collected form monthly time
series data that are received from central banks. The
conclusion is that, continuous use of monetary tools to
maintain the price stability with the market provides a desired
yield with medium term and long term monetary policy goals.
The research works in [2] evidenced that, reframing of policy
executed by interest-rate aiming might unintentionally
persuade martingale-like behavior in nominal rates and
inflation. The authors also explained the reason why the
central bankers prefer continuity of the short rate and indirect
rate targeting. The research works done in [3] analyzed the
ABSTRACT
An interest rate is the quantity of interest due per period as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited or borrowed. The first aim of this study is to
know about the interest rates prevailing with countries and to analyze the impact of interest rate towards international currency pairs. For this
purpose, the currencies of four countries have been taken and they were compared with the interest rate to know their impact. The conclusion clearly
reveals that the interest rate changes has an impact towards the market in mid and long term basis with all the currencies taken for the study. Monetary
policy is the mechanism by which the monetary authority of a country regulates the supply of money to ensure the price stability and general trust in
the currency. The second aim of the study is to analyze the impact of monetary policy and its impact on international markets. The study is all about
analyzing the volatility of Forex market in different GMT’S. The need of the study is to know about the price variations in different timings of the
market when there is day shift process accordingly. This type of research design has been undertaken for analytical design since the pricing
movements of bullion markets are analyzed.
Keywords: Interest rate, international market, volatility, monetary policy and investor.
Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST)
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017
2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net
Page | 51
transmission for monetary policy by analyzing the interest
rate, and found out that there is a relationship between repo
rate and interest rate, and concluded that the interest rate have
normally adjusted line with repo rates.
The works carried out by Ramon P.De Gennaro assessed the
influence of market action and news on the volatility of
returns in the exchange market for Japanese Yen and US
dollars. They inspected the consequences of news on the
volatility before, during and after the news arrival by using
three categories of news. Market activity is proxied by the
quote arrival, and separated into a predictable seasonal
component and an unexpected component. The results
specified that both the components of market activity as well
as news releases affect the volatility levels. The finding is that,
unexpected quote arrival certainly impacts the foreign
exchange rate volatility and is reliable with the understanding
that the unexpected quote arrival serves as a measure of
informed trading. Validating this interpretation is the
regression analysis which designates that, the spreads
increase in the surprise component of the quote arrival rate
but not in the expected component. The assessed impact of a
unit increase in unexpected quote arrival and the range of
values determined for this variable imply an imperative
volatility conditioning role for the informed trading.
The works done by Ben Omrane described the impact of nine
classes of scheduled/unscheduled news announcements on the
euro/dollar return volatility. Their work analyzed the
pre-announcement, contemporaneous and the
post-announcement reactions. Using this high-frequency
intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type
models, their work clearly showed that volatility rises in the
pre-announcement periods particularly before scheduled
events.
3.FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF INTEREST RATES
Fig.1. Minimum Bid Rate of Euro
Figure 2 shows the unemployment claims of five years and the
impact of price of last five years. The interest rate was high as
4.25% in the year 2013 and the price seems to be deprecated
due to lag of fiscal measures, and within one year the interest
rate was decreased to 0.75% and the impact was also found to
be positive trend, and there was an appreciation of price in the
market [10, 11].
Fig.2. Five Year Chart for Euro
Fig.3. US FED Funds Rate
Fig.4. Five Year Chart for US Dollar
The US bank interest rate, otherwise called as Fed fund rate is
being governed by the central bank of US for maintaining the
interest rate to control the inflation. The interest rate was high
as 5% in the year 2012. Figure 4 shows the individual Index
price of US dollar, where the increase in price of the money
shows that the economy is in developing stage, and if it
decreases the value for money will also be decreasing. Here
the value has decreased because of the increase in the interest
Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST)
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017
2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net
Page | 52
rate of the country, but the market is range-bound where the
tool doesn’t make any impact in the economic slowdown [12].
Fig.5. Canadian Overnight Rate
Fig.6. Five Year Chart for Canadian Dollar
The Canadian interest rate is otherwise called as overnight
rate, which has been governed by the central bank of Canada.
The interest rate was high as 4.25 in between mid of 2007 to
2012. The value of the market also got depreciated at the same
time, and after 2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.25 in
the year 2014 and the value for money got appreciated at the
same time, which evidently show that there is an obedience
level for the market using interest rate as a fundamental
analysis under consideration (figure 6) [13].
Fig.7. GBPUSD Interest Rate
Fig.8. Five Years Data for GBPUSD
The Pound interest rate is otherwise called as Official bank
rate which has been governed by the central bank of UK. The
interest rate was high as 5.75 in the year 2012 and was
reduced to 0.5 from 2013, and maintained the same
percentage of interest till date without any change. The value
of the market also got depreciated at the same time, and after
2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.5 in the year 2014 and
the value for money got appreciated at the same time, which
evidently show that there is an obedience level for the market
using interest rate as a fundamental analysis (figure 8) [15].
4. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS
Fig.9. Unemployment Claims of EURO
Fig.10. Five Year Chart for EURO
Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST)
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017
2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net
Page | 53
Figure 9 shows the unemployment claims of five years and the
impact of price of the last five years. From the year 2014, the
unemployment claims were high which increased from 9% to
11%, and during that time the market came up to 1.4950 and it
came down in the year 2011 to a low level of 1.2550. It shows
that there was a slow impact in the market when the
unemployment claim increased in the year 2014.
Fig.11. Unemployment Claims of US Economy
Fig.12. Five Year Chart for US Dollar
Figure 11 shows the unemployment claims of five years of US
Dollar and the impact of price of the last five years. From the
year 2013, the unemployment claim was high as 600 thousand
peoples and the impact of that particular year was on 2014,
and after the recovery in the year 2011, the unemployment
claims slowly reduced to 400 thousand people.
Fig.13. Unemployment Claims of Canadian Dollar
Fig.14. Five Year Chart for Canadian Dollar
In the year 2013, the unemployment claims raised to a high
level of 8.4% from 6.4%, which shows that the economy is in
down trend. During that year, the volatility was very low and
the price movement was in a consolidation stage, and after the
recovery in employment the market came down and now there
is a chance of appraisal in the market (Figure 13).
Fig.15. Unemployment Claims of Australian Dollar
Fig.16. Five Year Chart for Australian Dollar
In the year 2012, the unemployment rate has been reduced
thereby the economic factors showed that the economy can go
in upper trend which might lead to increase in GDP of the
country, and in the year 2012 the value of Australian dollar
appreciated when compared to US dollar, but after 2012 the
employment claims have been increased thereby the value
depreciated simultaneously (Figure 15).
Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST)
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017
2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net
Page | 54
5. EXAMINATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
In US economy, from the year 2013 the unemployment claim
was high at 600 thousand peoples and the impact of that
particular year was on 2014, and after the recovery in the year
2011 the unemployment claims slowly reduced to 400
thousand people. The US interest rate was reduced from 5%
to .25% P.A from 2007 to 2013, thereby the market came
down after reducing the interest rate.
It reveals that there was a perfect correlation between the
market and interest rate. In Canadian economy, the volatility
was very low and the price movement was in a consolidation
stage after the recovery in employment the market came down
and now there is a chance of appraisal in the market. In
Australian economy, the market came down slightly to a low
level of 0.9300 and got raised to a new high level from there.
Though the unemployment claim was not reduced, still the
market is in high level. It shows that there is something
fundamentally effecting more than unemployment claims in
Australian market.
In Japanese Yen, in the year 2013 the unemployment claims
raised to a high level of 4.2 from 5.6%, which shows that the
economy is in down trend. During that year, the market rose
slightly and came down from a high level of 101.10 to a low
level of 74.40, because of increase in unemployment claims in
the country and the company has reduced the claims to an
extent and there is a chance of uptrend in the market. There is
a huge correlation between the unemployment claims and
market movements in Japanese Yen. With Euro, the interest
rate was high at 4.25% in the year 2013 and the price seems to
be deprecated due to lag of fiscal measures, and within one
year the interest rate was decreased to 0.75% and the impact
was also found to be in positive trend, where there was an
appreciation of price in the market.
With US dollar, the interest rate was high as 5% in the year
2012. The value decreased due to increase in the interest rate
of the country. In Canadian dollar, the interest rate was high as
4.25 in between mid of 2007 to 2012. The value of the market
also got depreciated at the same time, and after 2012 the
interest rate was reduced to 0.25 in the year 2014 and the
value for money got appreciated which shows that there is an
obedience level for the market using interest rate as a
fundamental analysis. With Australian dollar, the interest rate
was high as 4.25 in between mid of 2007 to 2012. The value
of the market also got depreciated at the same time, and after
2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.25 in the year 2014 and
the value for money got appreciated at the same time which
shows that there is an obedience level for the market using
interest rate as a fundamental analysis.
With pound, the interest rate was high as 5.75 in the year 2012
and was reduced to 0.5 from 2013 and maintained the same
percentage of interest till now without any change. In US
economy, from the year 2013 the unemployment claim was
high as 600 thousand peoples and the impact of that particular
year was on 2014, and after the recovery in the year 2011 the
unemployment claims slowly reduced to 400 thousand
people. The US interest rate was reduced from 5% to .25%
P.A from 2007 to 2013. It shows that there was a perfect
correlation between the market and interest rate. In Canadian
economy, during that year the volatility was very low and the
price movement was in a consolidation stage after the
recovery in employment the market came down, and now
there is a chance of appraisal in the market. In Australian
economy, during that year the market came down slightly to a
low level of 0.9300 and it raised to a new high level.
Though the unemployment claim was not reduced, still the
market is in high level. It shows that, there is something
fundamentally effecting more than unemployment claims in
Australian market. In Japanese Yen, in the year 2013 the
unemployment claims raised to a high level of 4.2% from
5.6%, which shows that the economy is in down trend. During
that year, the market rose slightly and came down from a high
level of 101.10 to a low level of 74.40, because of increase in
unemployment claims in the country and the company has
reduced the claims to an extent and there is a chance of
uptrend in the market.
6. CONCLUSION
The market fluctuations with international cross currencies
vary according to the impact with monetary policies of their
country, and interest rate is one of the fiscal policies used to
regulate the monetary measures of the economy. The interests
of the banks are fixed by the corresponding central banks to
regulate the money flow of the country. The study analyzes
about the interest rates of various countries and their impact
on currency pairs. The main conclusion is that the interest rate
changes has an impact towards the market in mid and long
term basis with all the currencies taken for the study. The
study analyzed about the volatility of markets and how to
trade on the basis of volatility with different time factors and
also the fundamental analysis involved in the market. The
major conclusion is that they can buy and sell the pairs based
on the volatility rather than preferring fundamental analysis
REFERENCES
[1] Ikechukwu Kelilume (2014), “Effects of the monetary
policy rate on interest rates in Nigeria”, The International
Journal of Business and Finance Research, volume 8,
number 1, page no 45-55.
[2] Marvin Goodfriend (1991), “Interest rates and the conduct
of monetary policy”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series
on Public Policy, 34 (1991) 7-30.
[3] Lina Fransson and Oskar Tysklind (2016), “The effects of
monetary policy on interest rates”, Sveriges riksbank
economic review, Page no 38-60.
[4] Steven B., “Technical Analysis from A to Z”, Second
edition, Probus Publishing Company, 2000, ISBN-13:
978-0071363488.
[5] De Gennaro, Ramon P. and Shrieves, Ronald E., “Public
Information Releases, Private Information Arrival, and
Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market (December
1997)”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Volume 4, Issue 4,
December 1997, Pages 295–315.
Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST)
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017
2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net
Page | 55
[6] Masih, A. M. M. & Masih, R. (1997), “A comparative
analysis of the propagation of stock market fluctuations in
alternative models of dynamic causal linkages”, Applied
Financial Economics, 7 (1), 59-74.
[7] Agarwal, R N (2000), “Financial Integration and Capital
Markets in Developing Countries: A Study of Growth,
Volatility and Efficiency in the Indian Capital Market”,
Mimeo, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi.
[8] Bae, K, Cha, B, & Cheung, Y (1999), “The Transmission
of Pricing Information of Dually Listed Stocks”, Journal of
Business Finance and Accounting, 26 (5) and (6), June/July,
709-23.
[9] Becker, K, Finnerty, J., & Gupta, M. (1990), “The
Intertemporal Relation between the US and Japanese Stock
Markets”, Journal of Finance, 45, 1297-1306.
[10] Bennett, P., & Keller, J. (1988), “The International
Transmission of Stock Price Disruption in October 1987”,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review,
Summer, 17-33.
[11] Froot, K., & Dabora, E. (1999), “How are Stock Prices
Affected by the Location of Trade”, Journal of Financial
Economics, 53, 189- 216.
[12] Hansda, S. K., & Ray, P. (2002), “BSE and Nasdaq:
Globalisation, Information Technology and Stock Prices”,
Economic and Political Weekly, 37 (5), February 2, 459-468.
[13] Howe, J S., & Madura, J. (1990), “The Impact of
International Listings on Risk: The Implications for Capital
Market Integration”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 14,
1133-1142.
[14] Yakob, N. A., Beal, D., & Delpachitra, S. (2005),
“Seasonality in the Asia Pacific stock markets”, Journal of
Asset Management, 6 (4), 298-318.
[15] Poshakwale, S. (2002), “The Random Walk Hypothesis
in the Emerging Indian Stock Market”, Journal of Business
Finance & Accounting, 29 (9&10), 1275-1299.

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A Global Perspective of Varying Interest Rates in International Markets

  • 1. Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST) Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017 2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net Page | 50 A Global Perspective of Varying Interest Rates in International Markets Dr. Arijit Maity# # Associate Professor, Management Department, Budge Budge Institute of Technology, India. Email: dr.arijitmaity@gmail.com Article Received: 07 February 2017 Article Accepted: 16 February 2017 Article Published: 21 February 2017 1. INTRODUCTION The entire interest on an amount lent or borrowed typically depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency and the overall length of time over which it is lent, deposited or borrowed. It is arbitrarily well-defined, as the proportion of an amount loaned which a lender charges as interest to the borrower, is typically articulated as an annual percentage. It is the rate, a bank or additional lender charges to borrow its money, or the rate a bank pays its savers for keeping money in an account. Annual interest rate is the rate over a period of one year. Other interest rates smear over different periods such as a month or a day, but they are frequently annualized [4-6]. International interest plays a key role towards their economy, which has been a regulating measure for the monetary policy of the economy. The market fluctuations with international cross currencies vary according to the impact with monetary policies of their country, and interest rate is one of the fiscal policy used to regulate the monetary measures of the economy. The interests with the banks are fixed by the corresponding central banks to regulate the money flow of the country [7-9]. Forex, diminutive for the Global Foreign Exchange Market is the leading single financial market in the globe. Job Monkey comprises a segment on this theme because Forex trading could be completed just about anywhere with an Internet connectivity. Numerous traders are able to make extra money over and above what their real-job delivers - occupied from home. Likewise, called the Currency Exchange, the FOREX is the financial field where currencies from dissimilar nations are exchanged for one another (with the corresponding of over 4 trillion dollars shifting hands daily according to the FX Street). Forex is not a corporal market like the AMEX (American Stock Exchange) or the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) but more of a global network of unified banks, investments firms, hedge funds, currency traders, supplementary financial and banking entities. Due to the absence of a physical exchange, the FOREX market functions on a full 24-hour time period crossing from one time zone to alternative zone in all the chief financial centers. There are three key economic zones that incorporate the Forex market: Australasia (Australia and Asia), Europe and North America. This organization permits the participants in the Forex market to trade at any time of day. The paper has been organized as follows. An introduction to interest rate and monetary policies towards international markets has been entailed in Section I. A detailed literature review carried out by various authors in the vicinity of this research work has been discussed in Section II. Volatility on the basis of fundamental analysis of interest rate has been discussed in Section III. The volatility on the basis of fundamental analysis unemployment claims has been elaborated in Section IV. The inspections and suggestions about the monetary policy and interest rate have been entailed in Section V. Finally, Section VI concludes the paper artistically. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW The research works carried out in [1] analyzed the monetary policy and its impact with interest rates of Nigeria from 2007-2012. The data has been collected form monthly time series data that are received from central banks. The conclusion is that, continuous use of monetary tools to maintain the price stability with the market provides a desired yield with medium term and long term monetary policy goals. The research works in [2] evidenced that, reframing of policy executed by interest-rate aiming might unintentionally persuade martingale-like behavior in nominal rates and inflation. The authors also explained the reason why the central bankers prefer continuity of the short rate and indirect rate targeting. The research works done in [3] analyzed the ABSTRACT An interest rate is the quantity of interest due per period as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited or borrowed. The first aim of this study is to know about the interest rates prevailing with countries and to analyze the impact of interest rate towards international currency pairs. For this purpose, the currencies of four countries have been taken and they were compared with the interest rate to know their impact. The conclusion clearly reveals that the interest rate changes has an impact towards the market in mid and long term basis with all the currencies taken for the study. Monetary policy is the mechanism by which the monetary authority of a country regulates the supply of money to ensure the price stability and general trust in the currency. The second aim of the study is to analyze the impact of monetary policy and its impact on international markets. The study is all about analyzing the volatility of Forex market in different GMT’S. The need of the study is to know about the price variations in different timings of the market when there is day shift process accordingly. This type of research design has been undertaken for analytical design since the pricing movements of bullion markets are analyzed. Keywords: Interest rate, international market, volatility, monetary policy and investor.
  • 2. Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST) Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017 2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net Page | 51 transmission for monetary policy by analyzing the interest rate, and found out that there is a relationship between repo rate and interest rate, and concluded that the interest rate have normally adjusted line with repo rates. The works carried out by Ramon P.De Gennaro assessed the influence of market action and news on the volatility of returns in the exchange market for Japanese Yen and US dollars. They inspected the consequences of news on the volatility before, during and after the news arrival by using three categories of news. Market activity is proxied by the quote arrival, and separated into a predictable seasonal component and an unexpected component. The results specified that both the components of market activity as well as news releases affect the volatility levels. The finding is that, unexpected quote arrival certainly impacts the foreign exchange rate volatility and is reliable with the understanding that the unexpected quote arrival serves as a measure of informed trading. Validating this interpretation is the regression analysis which designates that, the spreads increase in the surprise component of the quote arrival rate but not in the expected component. The assessed impact of a unit increase in unexpected quote arrival and the range of values determined for this variable imply an imperative volatility conditioning role for the informed trading. The works done by Ben Omrane described the impact of nine classes of scheduled/unscheduled news announcements on the euro/dollar return volatility. Their work analyzed the pre-announcement, contemporaneous and the post-announcement reactions. Using this high-frequency intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type models, their work clearly showed that volatility rises in the pre-announcement periods particularly before scheduled events. 3.FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF INTEREST RATES Fig.1. Minimum Bid Rate of Euro Figure 2 shows the unemployment claims of five years and the impact of price of last five years. The interest rate was high as 4.25% in the year 2013 and the price seems to be deprecated due to lag of fiscal measures, and within one year the interest rate was decreased to 0.75% and the impact was also found to be positive trend, and there was an appreciation of price in the market [10, 11]. Fig.2. Five Year Chart for Euro Fig.3. US FED Funds Rate Fig.4. Five Year Chart for US Dollar The US bank interest rate, otherwise called as Fed fund rate is being governed by the central bank of US for maintaining the interest rate to control the inflation. The interest rate was high as 5% in the year 2012. Figure 4 shows the individual Index price of US dollar, where the increase in price of the money shows that the economy is in developing stage, and if it decreases the value for money will also be decreasing. Here the value has decreased because of the increase in the interest
  • 3. Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST) Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017 2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net Page | 52 rate of the country, but the market is range-bound where the tool doesn’t make any impact in the economic slowdown [12]. Fig.5. Canadian Overnight Rate Fig.6. Five Year Chart for Canadian Dollar The Canadian interest rate is otherwise called as overnight rate, which has been governed by the central bank of Canada. The interest rate was high as 4.25 in between mid of 2007 to 2012. The value of the market also got depreciated at the same time, and after 2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.25 in the year 2014 and the value for money got appreciated at the same time, which evidently show that there is an obedience level for the market using interest rate as a fundamental analysis under consideration (figure 6) [13]. Fig.7. GBPUSD Interest Rate Fig.8. Five Years Data for GBPUSD The Pound interest rate is otherwise called as Official bank rate which has been governed by the central bank of UK. The interest rate was high as 5.75 in the year 2012 and was reduced to 0.5 from 2013, and maintained the same percentage of interest till date without any change. The value of the market also got depreciated at the same time, and after 2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.5 in the year 2014 and the value for money got appreciated at the same time, which evidently show that there is an obedience level for the market using interest rate as a fundamental analysis (figure 8) [15]. 4. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS Fig.9. Unemployment Claims of EURO Fig.10. Five Year Chart for EURO
  • 4. Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST) Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017 2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net Page | 53 Figure 9 shows the unemployment claims of five years and the impact of price of the last five years. From the year 2014, the unemployment claims were high which increased from 9% to 11%, and during that time the market came up to 1.4950 and it came down in the year 2011 to a low level of 1.2550. It shows that there was a slow impact in the market when the unemployment claim increased in the year 2014. Fig.11. Unemployment Claims of US Economy Fig.12. Five Year Chart for US Dollar Figure 11 shows the unemployment claims of five years of US Dollar and the impact of price of the last five years. From the year 2013, the unemployment claim was high as 600 thousand peoples and the impact of that particular year was on 2014, and after the recovery in the year 2011, the unemployment claims slowly reduced to 400 thousand people. Fig.13. Unemployment Claims of Canadian Dollar Fig.14. Five Year Chart for Canadian Dollar In the year 2013, the unemployment claims raised to a high level of 8.4% from 6.4%, which shows that the economy is in down trend. During that year, the volatility was very low and the price movement was in a consolidation stage, and after the recovery in employment the market came down and now there is a chance of appraisal in the market (Figure 13). Fig.15. Unemployment Claims of Australian Dollar Fig.16. Five Year Chart for Australian Dollar In the year 2012, the unemployment rate has been reduced thereby the economic factors showed that the economy can go in upper trend which might lead to increase in GDP of the country, and in the year 2012 the value of Australian dollar appreciated when compared to US dollar, but after 2012 the employment claims have been increased thereby the value depreciated simultaneously (Figure 15).
  • 5. Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST) Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017 2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net Page | 54 5. EXAMINATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS In US economy, from the year 2013 the unemployment claim was high at 600 thousand peoples and the impact of that particular year was on 2014, and after the recovery in the year 2011 the unemployment claims slowly reduced to 400 thousand people. The US interest rate was reduced from 5% to .25% P.A from 2007 to 2013, thereby the market came down after reducing the interest rate. It reveals that there was a perfect correlation between the market and interest rate. In Canadian economy, the volatility was very low and the price movement was in a consolidation stage after the recovery in employment the market came down and now there is a chance of appraisal in the market. In Australian economy, the market came down slightly to a low level of 0.9300 and got raised to a new high level from there. Though the unemployment claim was not reduced, still the market is in high level. It shows that there is something fundamentally effecting more than unemployment claims in Australian market. In Japanese Yen, in the year 2013 the unemployment claims raised to a high level of 4.2 from 5.6%, which shows that the economy is in down trend. During that year, the market rose slightly and came down from a high level of 101.10 to a low level of 74.40, because of increase in unemployment claims in the country and the company has reduced the claims to an extent and there is a chance of uptrend in the market. There is a huge correlation between the unemployment claims and market movements in Japanese Yen. With Euro, the interest rate was high at 4.25% in the year 2013 and the price seems to be deprecated due to lag of fiscal measures, and within one year the interest rate was decreased to 0.75% and the impact was also found to be in positive trend, where there was an appreciation of price in the market. With US dollar, the interest rate was high as 5% in the year 2012. The value decreased due to increase in the interest rate of the country. In Canadian dollar, the interest rate was high as 4.25 in between mid of 2007 to 2012. The value of the market also got depreciated at the same time, and after 2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.25 in the year 2014 and the value for money got appreciated which shows that there is an obedience level for the market using interest rate as a fundamental analysis. With Australian dollar, the interest rate was high as 4.25 in between mid of 2007 to 2012. The value of the market also got depreciated at the same time, and after 2012 the interest rate was reduced to 0.25 in the year 2014 and the value for money got appreciated at the same time which shows that there is an obedience level for the market using interest rate as a fundamental analysis. With pound, the interest rate was high as 5.75 in the year 2012 and was reduced to 0.5 from 2013 and maintained the same percentage of interest till now without any change. In US economy, from the year 2013 the unemployment claim was high as 600 thousand peoples and the impact of that particular year was on 2014, and after the recovery in the year 2011 the unemployment claims slowly reduced to 400 thousand people. The US interest rate was reduced from 5% to .25% P.A from 2007 to 2013. It shows that there was a perfect correlation between the market and interest rate. In Canadian economy, during that year the volatility was very low and the price movement was in a consolidation stage after the recovery in employment the market came down, and now there is a chance of appraisal in the market. In Australian economy, during that year the market came down slightly to a low level of 0.9300 and it raised to a new high level. Though the unemployment claim was not reduced, still the market is in high level. It shows that, there is something fundamentally effecting more than unemployment claims in Australian market. In Japanese Yen, in the year 2013 the unemployment claims raised to a high level of 4.2% from 5.6%, which shows that the economy is in down trend. During that year, the market rose slightly and came down from a high level of 101.10 to a low level of 74.40, because of increase in unemployment claims in the country and the company has reduced the claims to an extent and there is a chance of uptrend in the market. 6. CONCLUSION The market fluctuations with international cross currencies vary according to the impact with monetary policies of their country, and interest rate is one of the fiscal policies used to regulate the monetary measures of the economy. The interests of the banks are fixed by the corresponding central banks to regulate the money flow of the country. The study analyzes about the interest rates of various countries and their impact on currency pairs. The main conclusion is that the interest rate changes has an impact towards the market in mid and long term basis with all the currencies taken for the study. The study analyzed about the volatility of markets and how to trade on the basis of volatility with different time factors and also the fundamental analysis involved in the market. The major conclusion is that they can buy and sell the pairs based on the volatility rather than preferring fundamental analysis REFERENCES [1] Ikechukwu Kelilume (2014), “Effects of the monetary policy rate on interest rates in Nigeria”, The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, volume 8, number 1, page no 45-55. [2] Marvin Goodfriend (1991), “Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 34 (1991) 7-30. [3] Lina Fransson and Oskar Tysklind (2016), “The effects of monetary policy on interest rates”, Sveriges riksbank economic review, Page no 38-60. [4] Steven B., “Technical Analysis from A to Z”, Second edition, Probus Publishing Company, 2000, ISBN-13: 978-0071363488. [5] De Gennaro, Ramon P. and Shrieves, Ronald E., “Public Information Releases, Private Information Arrival, and Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market (December 1997)”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Volume 4, Issue 4, December 1997, Pages 295–315.
  • 6. Asian Journal of Applied Science and Technology (AJAST) Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 50-55, February 2017 2017 AJAST All rights reserved. www.ajast.net Page | 55 [6] Masih, A. M. M. & Masih, R. (1997), “A comparative analysis of the propagation of stock market fluctuations in alternative models of dynamic causal linkages”, Applied Financial Economics, 7 (1), 59-74. [7] Agarwal, R N (2000), “Financial Integration and Capital Markets in Developing Countries: A Study of Growth, Volatility and Efficiency in the Indian Capital Market”, Mimeo, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi. [8] Bae, K, Cha, B, & Cheung, Y (1999), “The Transmission of Pricing Information of Dually Listed Stocks”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 26 (5) and (6), June/July, 709-23. [9] Becker, K, Finnerty, J., & Gupta, M. (1990), “The Intertemporal Relation between the US and Japanese Stock Markets”, Journal of Finance, 45, 1297-1306. [10] Bennett, P., & Keller, J. (1988), “The International Transmission of Stock Price Disruption in October 1987”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, Summer, 17-33. [11] Froot, K., & Dabora, E. (1999), “How are Stock Prices Affected by the Location of Trade”, Journal of Financial Economics, 53, 189- 216. [12] Hansda, S. K., & Ray, P. (2002), “BSE and Nasdaq: Globalisation, Information Technology and Stock Prices”, Economic and Political Weekly, 37 (5), February 2, 459-468. [13] Howe, J S., & Madura, J. (1990), “The Impact of International Listings on Risk: The Implications for Capital Market Integration”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 14, 1133-1142. [14] Yakob, N. A., Beal, D., & Delpachitra, S. (2005), “Seasonality in the Asia Pacific stock markets”, Journal of Asset Management, 6 (4), 298-318. [15] Poshakwale, S. (2002), “The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 29 (9&10), 1275-1299.