The report analyzes social exclusion in countries in the region since 1991 using a multidimensional approach. It develops a methodology to measure social exclusion based on deprivations across economic, social services, and participation dimensions. The report finds that individual characteristics like age, education level, employment status, and where people live impact social exclusion levels. Factors like governance, labor markets, values, and local context like location in a mono-company town also drive exclusion. The report concludes transition to a market economy left some behind and reforms have not always improved lives. It recommends a comprehensive, preventative approach targeting individual vulnerabilities and institutional drivers to break the social exclusion chain.

1. Launch of Regional Human Development Report 2011—Oxford

2. Oxford—natural place for launch: evolving OPHI-UNDP cooperation large network of HD professionals and students Report is the fruit of very hard work, with support of many dedicated people—we thank them all In particular, large team of authors—many are here, others follow the launch on-line. Why Oxford; acknowledgements

3. Human Development and Social Inclusion Complementary, people-centered concepts; evolved in parallel so far Human development isthegoalto achieve—people living long, healthy and creative lives they have reason to value; Social inclusion isthe meansto get there; and Social exclusion—the existence of cumulative deprivations in three dimensions—is the obstacleto be overcome to achieve the goal.

4. Overall objectives of the Report Understand the dynamics of social exclusion, inclusion and human development in the region since 1991 Provide tools for assessing levels and intensity of social exclusion, detecting its main causes and the risks Identify determinants of social exclusion in individual dimensions Formulate realistic, evidence-based policy responses at central and local levels to effectively address it

5. To achieve these objectives, we Define the chain of social exclusion: risks interacting with drivers and local characteristics to result in exclusion status Develop an operational methodology for social exclusion measurement and monitoring at national and local levels Analyze patterns of exclusion Provide policy recommendations rooted in local specifics to enhance social inclusion.

6. Exclusion, not multi-dimensional poverty Same methodology as MPI, but different application Social exclusion: accumulation of deprivations -Dynamic process: interaction of exclusion risks, drivers, local context; feedback loops -Relative (but not subjective): deprivations are measured relative to others in same society; but the measure is not about feelings of deprivation—it is about not having access to basic consumption basket, public services or social networks. 6

7. The social exclusion chain Individual characteristics gender, ethnicity, health status Feedback to traits Positive: empowered, educated, Negative – accident as consequence of informal labor Inclusion Drivers of Exclusion Local context: rural, mono-town Positive reinforcing feedback i.e. vote, voice or action Institutions, policies and values Exclusion Negative feedback i.e. informality, unemployment

8. The report’s quantitative underpinnings Social Exclusion Survey in 6 countries of the region (FYROM, SRB, UKR, MVA, TAJ, KAZ) Locality-specific data for contextualization of survey Secondary data on all countries of the region Development and other indicators relevant to social exclusion and inclusion

9. Quantifying social exclusion

12. Tough measurement question:How many deprivations does it take to be excluded? Threshold-number of deprivations, a matter of choice Our survey: 9 12

13. The cut-off line affects the share of excluded, but not countries’ relative standing

14. Share of socially excluded and the social exclusion index

15. Highly even contribution of individual dimensions to overall exclusion

16. Main findings: Individual characteristics and exclusion status

17. Social exclusion and age: children and elderly are most affected

18. Employment is crucial to avoid social exclusion

19. Low education level raises social exclusion

20. Certain groups are more excluded (Serbia Survey)

21. Higher Human Development Index correlates closely with higher social inclusion

22. Drivers of exclusion and their implications for exclusion status

23. Poor governance goes closely with exclusion 23

24. Barriers to business exacerbate social exclusion

25. A better functioning labour market enhances social inclusion

26. Informal employment brings dubious benefits

27. Less tolerant values enhance social exclusion

28. Specifics of local context and its implications for social exclusion

29. Tolerance of corruption heightens social exclusion

30. Location matters greatly! 30

31. Social exclusion is particularly high in mono-company towns

32. The quality of local infrastructure also affects social exclusion

33. Lasting effects of environmental disasters in yet another area: social exclusion

34. Towards an ‘individualized approach’ to social exclusion Integrating individual risks, specifics of local context, and values.

35. Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local conditions and amplify exclusion Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion Average Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences… Capital or economic center Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded! Local conditions matter Small town Village

36. Combination of risks, concluded

37. In sum: both who you are and where you live matter If you are young person, with low education, living in a village, or a town with a single company—you face a high risk of exclusion… …and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions… + …while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference + …economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education) + …and much more if you are educated + + + 37

39. It could be anyone! Everyone is at risk of being left out of society, not only marginalized groups.

40. Income doesn’t tell the whole story ! To be part of society, you also need access to public services, and opportunities to participate in community life.

41. Attitudes, local economy characteristics, policies matter

42. No single policy can eliminate exclusion - Policies need to be comprehensive to break the social exclusion chain38

43. Recommendations Genuine, sustained commitment to social inclusion with clear targets Preventive focus on individual vulnerabilities Clear focus on people’s capacities Addressing institutional drivers is crucial Match this with deliberate efforts to change mindsets UNDP can help: We can generate projectable ideas We can implement them region-wide using our country office network, and partners