Monthly study of the state of the Spanish and international economy

1. 203
133.4
117
74.5
84
58.9
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Private sector Non-financial corporations Households
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2019
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2019
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2019
848,390
955,186
463,719
491,287
300,568
581,793
250000
350000
450000
550000
650000
750000
850000
950000
1050000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-39.1%
+93.6%
Reduction of non-financial private debt
YoY average change (%)
2010-2017 2018
Private sector -2.8 -1.0
Non-financial corporations -2.7 -1.5
Households -3.0 -0.3
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
General index Moving average (3 months)
Industrial production Spain
The Industrial Production Index, after rising
by 2.7% in January year-on-year, declined by
0.3% in February, due to the contraction of
the production of the energy sector
(-6.15%), of the durable consumer goods
(-2.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.5%).
By Autonomous Community, the industrial
production increased in Castilla-La Mancha
(5.1%), Aragon (3.4%) and Canary Islands
(2.5%), while it declined in Extremadura
(-6.8%), Galicia (-5.8%) and the Balearic
Islands (-5.2%).
Debt of non-financial sectors
In Spain, Q4 of 2018, total non-financial debt
amounted to €3.4 trillion, representing
280.7% of GDP.
The indebtedness of the private sector stood
at 133.4%, almost 70 pp below its 2010
record high. However, in 2018, its annual
average annual rate of reduction moderated
to -1%, as opposed to -2.8% recorded
between 2010 and 2017, as there were no
new advances in the deleveraging of
households (-0.3% annual average vs -3%
between 2010 and 2017).
Housing sector Spain
In Spain, after the recovery of the real estate
sector began in 2014, investment in housing
accounted for 5.2% of GDP in 2018, around
the EU average (5.7%), but 57% lower than
the maximum recorded in 2006 (12.1% of
GDP).
Home purchase transactions have flourished
by 93.6% from their record low in 2013,
amounting to 518,793 transactions, although
they remain 39.1% below their record high in
2006. By Autonomous Community, it is
observed that the rhythm of growth is very
heterogeneous since 2013, with Cantabria,
Asturias and the Basque Country standing
out as the top 3 regions that have recorded
cumulative increases above the national
average, compared with the Canary Islands
and Galicia, with increases of less than 70%.
Economy…
at a glance April 2019
Industrial Production Index, Spain
YoY change (%)
Home purchase transactions in Spain
Units
Non-financial private debt
% of GDP

2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However,
the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo
de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
0% 100%
Western Europe
60.4%
Eastern Europe
62.7%
Central Asia
78.4%
Western Asia
59.1%
South Asia
60.1%
Eastern Asia
65%
Sub-SaharanAfrica
49.1%
Northern Africa
49.3%
South-EasternAsia
61.4%
Other more
developedregions*
47%
Central America
59.6%
Caribbean
39.2%
South America
58.5%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD,2019
*Includes US, Canada, Australia, Japan and New Zealand.
-30
0
30
60
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Exports
Imports
Note: In 2018, China's nominal GDP reached $13.4 trillion
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg and China Customs, 2019
IMF Forecasts
The International Monetary Fund has
forecasted a 3.3% growth of the world economy
thisyear,0.2%belowitsJanuaryforecast(3.5%),
its lowest growth since 2009. This downward
revision occurs against the backdrop of soaring
risks, alluding to the possible collapse of the
negotiations between the United States and
China, in its attempt to end the trade war, and
theuncertainty associated with the withdrawal
oftheUnitedKingdomfromtheEU,interalia.
The world economy evinces a trend change.
Currently, 70% of the advanced and emerging
economies have embarked on a synchronised
deceleration, while in 2017, 75% of them
exhibitedasynchronisedexpansion.
Among the main economies, the biggest
downward revision of their growth was in Italy
(-0.5 pp), Germany (-0.5 pp), Canada (-0.4
pp)andtheUnitedKingdom(-0.3pp).
Industrial production Eurozone
In February, the industrial production of the
Eurozone declined by 0.3% year-on-year for
the fourth consecutive month, mainly
explained by the decline of 2% year-on-year
in the production of the German industry,
which currently represents 37.9% of the
total EMU. Specifically, in the absence of
external demand, orders for new industrial
orders in Germany fell by 8.4% year-to-year,
their biggest drop since 2009.
As for other main economies of the
Eurozone, industrial production in Spain
fell by 0.4% year-on-year, that of France
stagnated (0%), and Italy recovers by 0.9%.
China trade
In March, exports of goods from China, after
plunging by 20.8% year-on-year in February
mainly due to the brief hiatus in activity for
the Chinese New Year celebrations,
recorded a surge of 14.2% year-on-year, to
$198.7 billion.
However, the fragility of domestic demand
persists, as imports continued to decline for
the fourth consecutive month by 7.6% year-
on-year (to $166 billion).
Underestimated growth, by region
% of countries on the total of each region
Trade in China
YoY change (%)